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Minnesota (1-5) at Northwestern (3-3)
12:00 PM ET Big Ten Network
Why to watch: With one
magnificent passing performance from C.J.
Bacher, Northwestern's season has gotten
out of the tank and now could finish up
with a bowl bid. The Wildcats had lost
three straight, bottoming out with a
home loss to Duke, but Bacher bombed
away for 520 yards in the overtime win
over Michigan State for a 3-3 record
with extremely winnable games against
Eastern Michigan and Iowa down the road.
This week, it's about keeping Minnesota
in the doldrums. On a four-game losing
streak, and with the only win coming in
overtime against Miami University, the
Gophers haven't exactly taken off under
new head coach Tim Brewster. The defense
has gone from mediocre to horrific, the
running game has stopped working, and
dreams of a sixth straight bowl
appearance are long gone. However, with
North Dakota State ahead (even though
it's hardly a gimme), there's a chance
to go on a little run with a win in
Evanston. The two teams haven't played
since 2004, but the Gophers have won the
last three meetings scoring a total of
130 points.
Why Minnesota might win:
Northwestern's blow up in East Lansing
was an aberration, not the norm. This
isn't a consistent scoring offense,
hanging up just 14 on Duke, doing
nothing against Nevada until late, and
getting just 23 points against Michigan
and Ohio State. It can bog down at times
with Bacher isn't throwing well. On the
other side of the ball, the Wildcat
defensive line has been decent against
the run, but hasn't come close to
getting into the backfield on a regular
basis. Minnesota can throw the ball a
bit, thanks to an offensive line that's
doing a great job in pass protection, so
QB Adam Weber should get plenty of time
and should put up some nice numbers.
Why Northwestern might win: 119
out of 119. Minnesota's pass defense is
the worst in the nation, and it's not
improving. The defense is a total mess.
The linebacking play has been lousy, the
corners get beaten like a drum no matter
who's throwing the ball, and the
coaching staff would sell the roof off
the Metrodome for an end that could get
to the quarterback just once. No pass
rush plus lousy defensive backs equals
another monster day for Bacher.
Who to watch: Yeah, the Gophers
are giving up passing yards in chunks
and the defense has been horrendous, but
don't blame safety Dominique Barber for
the problems. An All-Big Ten caliber
player stuck in a lousy situation, the
brother of Dallas Cowboy running back
Marion Barber III has had to try to make
every play, leading the team with 51
tackles, a sack, and three tackles for
loss.
What will happen: Northwestern's
passing game won't do that again,
but it'll light up the Gopher secondary
on the way to a second straight win.
It'll be a shootout, with Minnesota
getting its licks in.
CFN Prediction:
Northwestern
38 ... Minnesota 30...
Line: Northwestern -7
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ... 4
Kent State (3-3) at Ohio State (6-0)
12:00 PM ET Big Ten Network
Why to watch: After putting on a
clinic in the 23-7 win over Purdue, Ohio
State is back in the national title
picture. Now it has to go on a mega-PR
campaign to convince the world that it
deserves to be in the mix of the top
teams, and that the 2007 BCS
Championship game was a one-shot deal.
After this week it's Michigan State, and
then a nice finishing kick (at Penn
State, Wisconsin, Illinois and at
Michigan) that if navigated unscathed,
should punch the ticket to New Orleans.
But first, the Buckeyes have to get
through the formality of Kent State,
who's coming off a rough MAC
start, losing two of the first three
games in heartbreaking fashion. The
offense is just good enough to make
things interesting if everything breaks
the right way, but the Buckeyes have
gone 10-0 against MAC teams over the
last ten years.
Why Kent State might win: The
only shot the Golden lashes have of
keeping this interesting is if OSU has
mentally checked out after the huge win
over Purdue, but they can play a little
defense. No, they're not Ohio State, but
they're the best in the MAC so far,
leading the conference in run defense
and is second in pass defense. The
defensive front has held up extremely
well so far, and if it can generate a
little bit of a pass rush, the Buckeyes
offense could struggle a bit.
Unfortunately ...
Why Ohio State might win: KSU
doesn't have a pass rush. The secondary
doesn't give up too many yards, but it
can be burned deep, and it doesn't come
up with enough clutch plays. This is a
limited Golden Flash offense that
doesn't have any semblance of a passing
game. With the way the Buckeyes corners
are playing, the safeties can spend all
their time keeping QB Julian Edelman and
RB Eugene Jarvis from breaking out big
runs on the outside.
Who to watch: As if OSU wasn't
already loaded with secondary talent. CB
Chimdi Chekwa showed up against Purdue
with one of the best defensive
performances of the Big Ten season with
ten solo tackles and a broken up pass.
He won't have to do too much against the
KSU receivers, but he and the rest of
the defensive backs will be in on a slew
of assisted tackles against the Golden
Flash running game.
What will happen: Kent State is a
better team than the 1-2 conference
record might indicate, but this is a bad
matchup. Ohio State is a tough team for
anyone to deal with, but Kent State
simply doesn't have the offensive
diversity to get the ball moving.
CFN Prediction:
Ohio State
37 ... Kent State 3...
Line: Ohio State -30.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5
Indiana (5-1) at Michigan State
(4-2)
7:00 PM ET Big Ten Network
Why to watch: This hasn't been a
fun series, with the last six games
between the two decided by ten points or
more. The Hoosiers caught the Spartans
in a freefall last year, winning in a
46-21 blasting. This year, they're
hoping the trend can continue so they
can become bowl eligible for the first
time since 1994, and all but assure a
post-season scrimmage for the first time
since 1993. Even more bizarre to think
about, considering this is Indiana, is
that a win means it'll be a major player
in the Big Ten title race, with no Ohio
State or Michigan to deal with.
Meanwhile, the Spartans are talking like
they're not going to collapse like they
have in past years, they're saying all
the right things, and they even appear
to be far different and far better than
past teams that hit the skids. However,
losing to Northwestern 48-41 doesn't
exactly scream stability. With a road
game at Ohio State next week, a loss to
the Hooisers will likely be part of a
four-game losing streak with Michigan,
Purdue and Penn State still ahead.
Why Indiana might win: If you
liked the Northwestern spread offense
against MSU, you'll get a kick out of
what Iowa, rolling up 611 yards of total
offense with 520 coming through the air,
then you'll love with Indiana should be
able to do. It's a different style of
attack that doesn't rely as heavily on
the running backs, but it's been
impressive so far, averaging 37.5 yards
and 448 yards per game. On the other
side of the ball, IU doesn't have a big
defensive front, but the run defense has
been fantastic so far, stopping everyone
cold except for Illinois, who ran for
288 yards. That's why ...
Why Michigan State might win: MSU
has to control the offense, the clock,
and the momentum. This is a home-run
hitting attack with Javon Ringer tearing
off big yards in giant clumps over the
last few weeks, It's no coincidence that
the only game IU lost was the only game
it gave up more than 120 yards.
Defensively, the MSU line is phenomenal
at getting into the backfield and should
be able to keep QB Kellen Lewis from
running wild.
Who to watch: Michigan State is
starting to get a national reputation on
defense when it comes to getting to the
quarterback. At least, it did before
Northwestern's C.J. Bacher tore it up.
But while Jonal Saint-Dic and the
nation's fourth best sacking team is
getting the pub, it's Indiana who leads
the nation in sacks, mostly due to
sophomore Greg Middleton, who's been one
of the country's most consistent players
with a sack in every game but one, the
loss to Illinois, cranking out eight on
the year. The more he can get to MSU QB
Brian Hoyer, the more the Spartans will
have to become one dimensional with the
ground game.
What will happen: Each team has
the potential to blow the doors off the
other. This time around, it'll be
Michigan State's turn. The running game
will pound the ball for over 35 minutes
and 250 yards, while Indiana's passing
game will sputter just enough late for
the Spartans to survive with a
desperately needed win.
CFN Prediction:
Michigan State 27 ...
Indiana
24...
Line: Michigan State -5
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ... 3
Big 10 Week
7 Predictions, Part 1
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