This was an incredibly surprising weekend, led by perhaps the biggest upset in college football history. Moreover, the rest of the bottom of the league also surprised, with Oregon State finally coming alive against Arizona and Washington State nearly knocking off the Sun Devils. And, of course, UCLA got waxed by a previously winless Notre Dame team.
Rising:
Staford: You win as a 41 point dog, you get the top slot on this list. Period.
Oregon St: It's about time the Beavers showed a pulse, after how badly they had been struggling of late.
Washington St: They competed well against ASU; they'll knock someone good off before they're done.
Hovering:
Arizona St: They won, but it wasn't at all impressive.
Falling:
Arizona: Boy, it didn't take long before the Wildcats went back to stinking up the joint.
USC: At least they almost won.
UCLA: They didn't just lose, they got stomped by a team that had been lousy every week of the year.
@ Oregon St (-3) 31, Arizona 16
(my pick: Arizona 21, @ Oregon St 14)
For the third straight week, the Beavers jumped out to a huge early lead, and then watched as the other team started to rally. However, this time they were able to hold on, as Arizona coughed up two interceptions plus a few turnovers on downs to kill the comeback effort before it could get any momentum.
What to take from this:
If you're Arizona:
This was a very, very big setback for Arizona. They are now 2-4 with the hard part of their schedule coming up. To be honest, a bowl game is now a very big stretch, since they've still got USC, UCLA, Oregon and Arizona State and only two losses to give.
If you're Oregon St:
It's a great sign that they were finally able to hold on to a lead. And the defense played great in this win, as did the running game. However, the passing game is still a big problem. They really, really needed this win, but there's not much room for error if they want to make a bowl.
Arizona State (-8.5) 23, @ Washington St 20
(my pick: Arizona St 38, @ Washington St 20)
This was a hard-fought, back and forth game, where Wazzu led for large periods, but in the end Arizona State was able to take advantage of a second half full of Cougar turnovers (both picks and on downs) and eke out a win that keeps them looking good in the race for a BCS berth.
What to take from this:
If you're Arizona St:
The most important thing is that they won, against a fired up Cougar team on the road. That said, there were some warning signs. The offense sputtered at times, and the defense gave up way too many yards. They need to do better, because they won't be able to count on getting too many key fourth down stops in the future.
If you're Washington St:
This is a tough loss to swallow. Still, the Cougars played well against a very good team. They need to pick up an upset in the next three weeks to have a chance at a postseason berth, but they showed enough in this game to think they've got a shot at it.
Notre Dame 20, @ UCLA (-22) 6
(my pick: @ UCLA 31, Notre Dame 14)
Powered by seven UCLA turnovers, Notre Dame was able to pull away late and win comfortably against a heavily favored Bruin squad.
What to take from this:
Yuck. Just a terrible, terrible effort. The defense played great, but the offense was a total disaster. The blame for this has to go on Karl Dorrell, who apparently didn't bother preparing the backup QB. Now with a bye week, he will doubtless take the time, but there are whispers he'll be pulling the redshirt off of hotshot quarterback recruit Forcier. This would be a total disaster for the Bruins in the long term, as they'll be significantly better off if he stays off the field this year. If Dorrell tries to pull the redshirt in a last-ditch effort to save his job, then he should be fired on the spot. Period.
Stanford 24, @ USC (-41) 23
(my pick: @ USC 45, Stanford 10)
Wow, what can you even say about a game like this? Stanford had been struggling of late, getting blown out by Oregon and especially ASU at home, and then had their first road game of the year with a backup quarterback making his first start, and yet they came into the Coliseum and made the big plays needed to knock off the Trojans.
What to take from this:
If you're Stanford:
This can be a huge, program-building win. Or it can be an abberration, something that is a fun conversation piece but ultimately is meaningless. Which one of those it is depends on how the rest of the season progresses, which makes that their homecoming game against TCU is absolutely huge. If they win, they have a good shot of making a bowl and building real momentum for the future. If not, all of the good feelings will go away and they'll be right back where they started.
If you're USC:
This is a huge, huge setback for the Trojans. They had shown plenty of signs of vulnerability before, especially last week in Seattle, but something like this is a huge downer for the program. There's still plenty of talent, but there has to be a huge concern. Despite some of the commentary, they are still in the national title race (especially given how many upsets there have been so far, and how few unbeatens are left), but it's going to be an incredible challenge to run the table and then hope that things break their way elsewhere. At this point, while technically possible it looks like a big longshot.
Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
Season: 31-10 SU, 20-19 ATS
National Games of the Week:
@ LSU (-7) 28, Florida 20
(my pick: @ LSU 31, Florida 14)
Cincinnati 28, @ Rutgers (-4) 23
(my pick: Cincinnati 31, @ Rutgers 17)
@ Illinois (-2.5) 31, Wisconsin 26
(my pick: Wisconsin 27, @ Illinois 24)
National Games Record:
This Week: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Season: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS
Bad Lines
Clemson -5
Missed by 23 and outright upset.
Syracuse +27
Missed by 14.
Duke +7.5
Covered by 2.5.
Bowling Green +20
Missed by 11.
UAB +18
Covered by 1.
UCF -3.5
Missed by 17.5 and outright upset.
Bad Lines Record
This week: 2-4
Season: 11-13
My Top 25:
1) LSU (6-0): vs FL: W 28-24
2) Ohio St (6-0): @ Purdue: W 23-7
To be honest, I am seriously thinking about bumping the Buckeyes to my #1 spot. If they keep on playing at this level and LSU gets another close call, don't be surprised to see the change.
3) Cal (5-0): BYE
4) BC (4-0): vs BG: W 55-24
5) Missouri (5-0): vs Neb: W 41-6
6) Oregon (4-1): BYE
7) Arizona St (6-0): @ WSU: W 23-20
8) USF (5-0): @ FAU: W 35-23
9) Oklahoma (5-1): vs Texas: W 28-21
10) South Carolina (5-1): vs Kentucky: W 38-23
11) Cincinnati (6-0): @ Rutgers: W 28-23
12) Kansas (5-0): @ KSU: W 30-24
The Jayhawks haven't really been pushed hard, but they've generally been dominant, and in a season where a lot of teams haven't been, that's worth something until they prove they don't belong.
13) WV (5-1): @ Syr: W 55-14
14) Illinois (5-1): vs Wisc: W 31-26
15) USC (4-1): vs Stan: L 23-24
16) Florida St (4-1): vs NC St: W 27-10
17) Kentucky (5-1): @ SC: L 23-38
18) Florida (4-2): @ LSU: L 24-28
19) UConn (5-0): BYE
20) Purdue (5-1): vs OSU: L 7-23
21) Wisconsin (5-1): @ ILL: L 26-31
22) Virginia Tech (5-1): @ Clem: W 41-23
23) Hawaii (6-0): vs Utah St: W 52-37
24) Virginia (5-1): @ MTSU: W 23-21
25) Georgia (4-2): @ Tenn: L 14-35
Dropped Out:
15) Michigan State
20) Kansas St
22) UCLA
On the Cusp:
Auburn, Kansas St, Penn St, Texas
Last Week:
1) LSU (5-0): @ Tulane: W 34-9
2) USC (4-0): @ Wash: W 27-24
3) Ohio St (5-0): @ Minn: W 30-7
4) Cal (5-0): @ UO: W 31-24
5) BC (4-0): vs AA: W 24-14
6) Oregon (4-1): vs Cal: L 24-31
7) USF (4-0): vs WV: W 21-13
8) Arizona St (5-0): @ Stan: W 41-3
9) Oklahoma (4-1): @ Colorado: L 24-27
10) South Carolina (4-1): vs Miss St: W 38-21
11) Kentucky (5-0): vs FAU: W 45-17
11) Georgia (4-1): vs Ole Miss: W 45-17
12) Cincinnati (5-0): @ SD St: W 52-23
13) Wisconsin (5-0): vs Mich St: W 37-34
14) Missouri (4-0): BYE
15) Michigan State (4-1): @ Wisc: L 34-37
16) Florida (4-1): vs Aub: L 17-20
17) WV (4-1): @ USF: L 13-21
18) Kansas (4-0): BYE
19) Purdue (5-0): vs ND: W 33-19
20) Kansas St (3-1): @ Texas: W 41-21
21) Florida St (3-1): vs Bama: W 21-14
22) UCLA (4-1) @ OS: W 40-14
23) Hawaii (5-0): @ Idaho: W 48-20
24) Virginia (4-1): vs Pitt: W 44-14
25) UConn (5-0): vs Akron: W 44-10
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com