This could be an interesting weekend. There aren't any single huge games, but there is a good group of second-tier games out there that could turn out to be very entertaining. The Pac-10 slate isn't exciting, but there are some good ones out there in the rest of the country.
TCU @ Stanford (+6.5)
This could be an interesting game in a lot of ways. TCU comes in with a talented team that has underachieved (in part due to injuries), while Stanford, picked by most to be terrible, just came up with an all-timer of an upset over USC last week. Psychologically, this game favors TCU in a monumental way. It seems that almost every time a team comes up with a huge upset that is supposed to revive a program gets drilled immediately afterwards.
In 2005 Arizona scored the big upset against UCLA. The next week, again at home, they got crushed by a Washington team who would end the year with just that win in league play. A few weeks ago, Syracuse got that huge win against Louisville. The next week they dropped a close one to Miami (OH), and then got slaughtered last weekend by West Virginia. Appalaichan St couldn't even make it out of September undefeated after winning at the Big House. And then you can go and look up just about all of Michigan St's history too.
Plus, an underachieving but talented team is the perfect storm matchup here. TCU is capable of coming out and playing great, and you can expect a big emotional high from them, as they come out to save their season and get a win that would start to get people talking about them in a good way again.
On the Other Hand:
The matchups don't really favor TCU. Their defense, while potentially good, has struggled at times against both the run and the pass. And against a team with a trio of very good receivers and a quarterback that's shown some moxie, that's a big vulnerability. Moreover, TCU's offense hasn't done much of anything so far, and that's against a schedule that has been significantly easier than what Stanford has had to face.
Indeed, you have to ask when TCU has really looked good. Their best game was back in week 1 when they blew out Baylor, but since then they've struggled, especially on the road, where they're 0-3.
Bottom Line:
On paper, this looks like a tossup with Stanford maybe having a slight edge at home. The psychological matchup indicates that TCU will go out and kill them. I do think the Cardinal can win this game, but history is overwhelming as a predictor here, so the smart money is on TCU to win without too much trouble.
TCU 34, @ Stanford 21
Washington @ Arizona St (-11.5)
(preseason pick: ASU)
This looks like a telling game for both of these teams. On the one hand, Washington has been struggling of late, going on a three game losing streak, but they can get themselves in great shape for a bowl berth with either a win here or a win next week against the Ducks, while dropping both will put them in serious trouble. ASU, meanwhile, had been tearing up everyone, but then last week in Pullman barely came out with a win against an upset-minded Cougar squad. With Cal coming to town next week, this game is important to re-establish their confidence going into such a huge game.
On paper, ASU looks like the much better team, as they always do well at home, they have a powerful offense, they have a solid defense, and have generally been playing well. And Washington is 2-3 with a three game losing streak.
On the Other Hand:
U-Dub has shown themselves capable of beating the lesser teams and hanging around for a while with the big boys. Led by young gun Jake Locker at quarterback, this is an improving team that can put a real scare into just about anyone. And with a bye week to prepare, this will be a well-rested team that is capable of pulling this upset if everything breaks their way.
Bottom Line:
This line feels like a bit of an overreaction to ASU's struggles last week. Erickson will have his team fired up against a Husky team that isn't bad, but isn't good enough to hang with the Sun Devils for long.
@ Arizona St 31, Washington 14
Washington St @ Oregon (-19)
(preseason pick: UO)
This just isn't a good matchup for the Cougars. Oregon has an offense that can beat you any which way, which is capable of overwhelming the Wazzu D. But more importantly, the Ducks have a solid secondary, which means that it's going to be really difficult for Cougar quarterback Alex Brink to put this team on his back and carry them to a much-needed win.
On the Other Hand:
There are some factors which give the Cougs hope. First of all, Brink is still a very good quarterback, and he's really taken some strides in leading this team, so you can't just write him off no matter who they're playing. Just as importantly, there are signs that the Ducks may end up imploding. They gave up too many turnovers to Cal two weeks ago, and that may well continue to be a problem. Moreover, the Ducks have a long history of suffering bad home losses at inopportune times. If they come out flat here, an upset is possible.
Bottom Line:
It's a big reach to think the Cougars have a shot at this game at Autzen. Look for the Ducks to bounce back in a big way.
@ Oregon 41, Washington St 21
Oregon St @ Cal (-14)
(preseason pick: Cal)
This is a really, really bad matchup for the Beavers. Cal has an aggressive defense to tee off on a shaky quarterback on the road, and more importantly they have a fantastic passing game against a secondary that rarely has done well. That's a recipe for a major blowout.
@ Cal 42, Oregon St 17
Arizona @ USC (-21)
(preseason pick: USC)
After what happened last week, it's no longer crazy to think that the Wildcats have a shot at the upset. Still, U of A has only put together one good game so far, and a bunch of bad ones. If they play a perfect game they'll have a shot, but they're just not good enough to do more than hang around.
@ USC 34, Arizona 17
National Games of the Week:
Missouri @ Oklahoma (-12)
As well as Mizzou has been playing lately, 12 points just seems way too big. This should be a good game that goes down to the wire, and home field should turn out to be the edge.
@ Oklahoma 28, Missouri 23
UConn @ Virginia (-3)
It's certainly not a "helmet" matchup, but both teams have played pretty well so far. The key here is the UVA is always awesome at home, and mediocre to lousy on the road. This one's at home.
@ Virginia 31, UConn 14
LSU (-9.5) @ Kentucky
LSU is the consensus #1 team in the country and obviously a very good team. However, Kentucky has been solid and has really done well at home. The Wildcats have a shot at this game, but in the end LSU will make the big plays to seal the deal.
LSU 24, @ Kentucky 21
Bad Lines
Purdue +5.5
This line is actually saying that Michigan is better than Purdue. I can accept that some people think they're around even, which would give a field goal line, but better? That just seems really weird to me.
South Carolina -7
The Cocks are a borderline top 10 team, and UNC is 2-4. It almost feels too good to be true.
Indiana + 3.5
The line is dropping, but it still doesn't make sense for the Spartans to get anything more than around 1 point. There's no good reason to think they're better than Indy, and they may well be in the middle of their annual collapse.
Air Force +3
Either there's an injury I don't know about, or this is the dumbest line of the year. There is no way that Air Force should be laying less than a field goal here, much less actually getting points. Silly, silly line.
Temple +10.5
Temple may actually not be totally horrible this year, and since Akron is obviously mediocre, double digits seems like a line that's too high.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com