BCS Breakdown ... Analyzing the Top Ten

Chase Daniel and Missouri moved up to number one while West Virginia is at two. Who else could end up playing for the title? Here's the breakdown and analysis of the latest BCS rankings with what it all means for the top teams with who won, who lost and what might end up happening.

By Pete Fiutak

BCS Rankings | Computer Rankings

Let's make this simple. If West Virginia beat Pitt and/or if Missouri beats Oklahoma, everything is crisp, clear and easy. If the Tigers and Mountaineers win next week, they play each other for the national title. If Missouri wins and West Virginia loses, it'll be the Tigers vs. Ohio State. If West Virginia wins and Missouri loses, it'll be the Mountaineers vs. the Buckeyes.

Let's make this hard. If West Virginia and Missouri both lose, then Ohio State will play against ... ?

Let the fun and screaming begin.

If the Mountaineers and Tigers lose, then Georgia, who's currently fourth in the rankings, would be in a position to move into a coveted top two spot despite not even winning its own division title, much less the conference championship. If LSU beats Tennessee in the SEC Championship, it would argue that it deserves to be in over Georgia, and definitely over Virginia Tech, who lost to the Tigers in Death Valley 48-7. Kansas, with one loss and at No. 5, might want in the title game despite not winning its own division, and Virginia Tech, if it blows out Boston College in the ACC Championship, would have a bit of a beef. Again, that's if West Virginia and Missouri lose.

In other key BCS moves, USC moved up to eight and will be in the Rose Bowl with a win over UCLA, Oklahoma, at nine and with Kansas at five, has to beat Missouri to get an at-large BCS spot or else KU will get a big money bid.

Also worthy of note is the move of Hawaii up to 12, which would mean an automatic BCS bid if it stays there after playing Washington next week. That means the Big Ten, ACC, and Big East will only have one team each in the BCS with the Big 12, SEC and Pac 10 certain to get two in. If Washington beats Hawaii, Illinois would likely benefit the most with the ACC Championship loser being in the picture for an at-large spot.

Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year goes on, but the two human polls will be the biggest factors.

The Big Winners: Missouri (4th to 1st), Georgia (7th to 4th), Hawaii (15th to 12th)
The Big Losers: LSU (1st to 7th), Arizona State (6th to 13th), Oregon (9th to 17th)

1. Missouri     Score: 0.9781   Last Week: 4
Missouri did what it needed to do to get in position to play for the national title with the win over Kansas, and now it's a win over Oklahoma away from getting to New Orleans. At worst, the Tigers are almost certain of an at-large BCS bowl bid if they lose. Four of the six computers give Mizzou No. 1 credit, but they don't matter at this point. Win and you're in.
Predicted Wins: None
Predicted Losses: Big 12 Championship
Predicted Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Orange 

2. West Virginia      Score: 0.9713   Last Week: 3
As expected, Missouri jumped over West Virginia with the win over Kansas, but thanks to LSU's loss to Arkansas, it didn't matter. The Mountaineers got two first place votes from the computers and plenty of love from the humans, and now, with a healthy lead over Ohio State, all they need to do is beat Pitt to play for the national title.
Predicted Wins: Connecticut
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship

3. Ohio State       Score: 0.9192   Last Week: 5
At worst, Ohio State will play in the Rose Bowl. At best, Oklahoma beats Missouri and/or Pitt beats West Virginia and the Buckeyes are playing in their second straight BCS Championship game.
Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship

4. Georgia      Score: 0.8274   Last Week: 7
Georgia didn't get the Kentucky win over Tennessee it needed to play LSU for the SEC title, and now it's in a prime position to step in and possibly move into the top two of Missouri and West Virginia lose next week. Despite not even winning their own division, they're guaranteed a BCS spot somewhere no matter what the Tigers and Mountaineers do.
Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose Bowl 

5.  Kansas    Score: 0.7918   Last Week: 2
KU had its chance to play for the national title, or at least assure itself a spot in the BCS, with a win over Missouri, but now it needs the Tigers to beat Oklahoma to get a BCS bid. At five, there's a slight chance it'll be ranked over Mizzou if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Championship in a rout.
Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Cotton

6. Virginia Tech      Score: 0.7811  Last Week: 8
The ACC isn't likely to get two teams in the BCS, so the Hokies have to beat Boston College to get to the Orange or else it'll likely be off to the Chick-fil-A.
Predicted Wins: Boston College in the ACC Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Orange 

7. LSU       Score: 0.7744   Last Week: 1
LSU blew its chance to play for the national title with the three overtime loss to Arkansas, but it'll be in the Sugar Bowl with a win over Tennessee. A loss would likely mean either the Outback or Capital One on New Year's Day.
Predicted Wins: Tennessee in the SEC Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Sugar

8. USC        Score: 0.6926   Last Week: 11
All of a sudden, USC has gone from an also-ran to the front-runner for the Rose Bowl, only needing a win over UCLA to get to Pasadena and turn a dud of a year into something special. If the Trojans obliterate the Bruins, watch for an underground movement from the voters to move them way up in the overall rankings.
Predicted Wins: at UCLA
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Rose

9. Oklahoma    Score: 0.6829   Last Week: 10
OU bounced back nicely from the loss to Texas Tech to blast Oklahoma State. Now it needs to beat Missouri to play in the Fiesta Bowl, while a loss would likely mean a trip to San Diego for the Holiday. The Sooners aren't likley to get an at-large BCS bid with a loss.
Predicted Wins: Missouri in the Big 12 Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta

10. Florida    Score: 0.6184  Last Week: 12
It's all for show for the Gators since no conference can get more than two teams in the BCS. The SEC Championship winner and Georgia will be in, while the Gators will play somewhere in Florida on New Year's Day.
Final Regular Season Record:  9-3
Predicted Bowl: Capital One

In Range
11. Boston College (last week: 14th)
12. Hawaii (last week: 15th)  
13. Arizona State (last week: 6th)
14. Tennessee (last week: 18th)
15. Illinois (last week: 17th)
16. Clemson (last week: 22nd)
17. Oregon (last week: 9th)
18. Wisconsin (last week: 21st)
19. BYU (last week: 25th)
20. Texas (last week: 13th)