This was a really fantastic weekend for football around the country, with a truly massive amount of really close, really entertaining games, one of the best I've seen in quite some time. If this was a sign of things to come, the rest of the year is going to be even wilder, crazier, and more exciting than the first half, and that's really saying something.
Rising:
UCLA: A huge win for the Bruins.
USC: A nice win, though it's premature to celebrate a win over Notre Dame.
Stanford: A really ugly win, but a win they really needed.
Hovering:
Oregon: This was a decent win, but exposed some issues they need to work on.
Falling:
Washington: They played well, but they really could have used the win.
Arizona: Free fall.
@ UCLA 30, Cal (-1) 21
(my pick: @ UCLA 31, Cal 27)
This was just a really good game between two very good teams. It went back and forth, and just when it seemed like the momentum was going one way, suddenly there was a big play to turn the game right back on its head. In the end, UCLA just had one big play too many, with Alterraun Verner running a Longshore pass back for a touchdown right when it seemed Cal was going to take back the lead for good.
What to take from this:
If you're Cal:
Basically, this team is good enough to hang with anyone but not good enough to win when the breaks don't go their way. So be it. Now they need to keep at it until things do start going their way again. That said, the run defense needs some major work. UCLA had very few problems running it when they needed it, and that's been a consistent trend for the Bears this year. Oregon State beat Cal largely because they ran it so well, Oregon almost beat Cal in a game where they ran it very well, and one-win Colorado State made it a game because they ran it so well. If they can't fix this, they're playing with fire.
If you're UCLA:
This was a game the Bruins really needed to have. They've obviously suffered some tremendously embarrassing losses this year, but they're still undefeated in Pac-10 play. That means that Rose Bowl hopes are very much alive and well, especially with all of the big games left on the slate in LA. Now what they need is to avoid another bad loss against Washington State.
Oregon (-13) 55, @ Washington 34
(my pick: Oregon 38, @ Washington 21)
For quite a while, this was a good game, with Oregon looking like the better team but Washington making enough key plays to end the third quarter tied up with a shot at pulling the upset. But then the Ducks took control, with their offense getting even hotter and their defense finally making the stops needed to pull away late.
What to take from this:
If you're Oregon:
This is clearly one of the best teams in the country, and they're incredibly tough to beat. That said, they need to learn that when they beat themselves, other teams can take advantage. When they turn the ball over, or when the defense gives a lackluster effort, they can lose. Their offense may have been spectacular, but they can't be one-dimensional, especially with the injury toll rising. At some point, the defense needs to step up, or they're going to lose again, maybe as soon as this weekend.
If you're Washington:
This was yet another tough loss for this team to swallow, yet another game where they were in reach for so long, but yet again came up short. It's going to be tough to pick up the pieces, but if they do, this is still a pretty good team. The toughest part of the schedule is now over, and while it may be little consolation now, the fact remains that they generally competed well. Now, at 2-5, they have only two truly challenging games left, home against Cal and at Hawaii, and neither of those is at all unwinnable. If they can keep their heads up, they are very capable of making a major second-half run, and maybe if they catch some breaks they can actually go 5-1 to close the year, which would be good enough for a bowl. It's certainly no guarantee, but the way they're playing, it's possible.
Stanford 21, @ Arizona (-13.5) 20
(my pick: @ Arizona 28, Stanford 24)
This was a really poorly played game on both sides, with bad turnovers, penalties, defensive breakdowns, and more. Nothing more ought to be said about it.
What to take from this:
If you're Stanford:
Well, they won. That's about the only really good thing to take from this game. It was poorly played on both sides, but in the end they were a bit less bad. At 3-4, their postseason hopes aren't dead yet, but they're going to have to play a lot better against Oregon State if they want to get to 4-4, which they need to have a realistic shot at going bowling.
If you're Arizona:
How in the world is this team playing so badly? They had so much talent returning, especially on defense, and yet they can't even seem to get out of their own way, let alone actually play well enough to beat anyone good. Maybe they turn things around and get a big upset or two, but at this point it really seems like this team has given up on the season. If Mike Stoops is back in 2008 it'll be a major surprise.
USC (-17) 38, @ Notre Dame 0
(my pick: USC 31, @ Notre Dame 21)
For a little while, this game went back and forth... and then USC scored their first touchdown late in the first quarter, and Notre Dame missed a field goal early in the second. From then on it was all Trojans, as they dominated the Irish in virtually every aspect of the game.
What to take from this:
USC is back! ... Well, maybe. Certainly, they put together a dominating performance in pretty much all aspects of the game. Then again, Georgia Tech did too, and look what's happened to them since. Yes, it was good to win in that fashion, but this team has yet to beat anyone legitimately good now that Nebraska has crashed and burned so badly. If they're really back, they'll have a chance to show it at Autzen. And if they're not, well, they'll have a chance to show that too.
Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Season: 38-12 SU, 26-22 ATS
National Games of the Week:
@ Missouri (-3.5) 41, Texas Tech 10
(my pick: @ Missouri 38, Texas Tech 31)
@ LSU (-10) 30, Auburn 24
(my pick: @ LSU 17, Auburn 14)
Florida (-6.5) 45, @ Kentucky 37
(my pick: @ Kentucky 24, Florida 21)
Virginia 18, @ Maryland (-4) 17
(my pick: @ Maryland 28, Virginia 27)
National Games Record:
This Week: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
Season: 13-12 SU, 14-11 ATS
Bad Lines
Miss St +25.5
Covered by 0.5
San Jose St +13.5
Missed by 16.5
Kansas -3.5
Covered by 1.5
Air Force -2.5
Covered by 5.5
UNLV -3
Missed by 28 and outright upset
Bad Lines Record
This week: 3-2
Season: 16-18
My Top 25:
1) Ohio St (8-0): vs MSU: W 24-17
2) Arizona St (7-0): BYE
They've had a schedule just a bit tougher than Kansas and BC, and they've done just a bit better to boot.
3) Kansas (7-0): @ Colorado: W 19-14
I know I'm higher on Kansas than anyone else, and it's odd to bump them so much after a close win at Colorado, but the big thing is that after thinking things through, it's tough to justify having them lower than anyone else. And in all fairness, they've had a schedule very similar to BC and ASU so far. It's entirely reasonable to argue them even higher, though I want to wait another week or two before I take that sort of step.
4) BC (7-0): BYE
I moved the Eagles down not because conditions changed, but because after taking the time to think a lot more about their ranking, I just didn't feel they had earned the #2 slot yet.
5) Oregon (6-1): @ Wash: W 55-34
6) LSU (7-1): vs Auburn: W 30-24
It's tough to have LSU this low, but they've looked pretty beatable from time to time. The wins are against good teams, but they've consistently been close games, which means that they don't get quite the same benefit of the doubt as the teams above them.
7) Oklahoma (7-1): @ Iowa St: W 17-7
8) Missouri (6-1): vs TxTech: W 41-10
9) WV (6-1): vs Miss St: W 38-13
10) Florida (5-2): @ Kentucky: W 45-37
11) USF (6-1): @ Rutgers: L 27-30
This group of five teams is fairly close; I expect a fair amount of movement here in the coming weeks.
12) Virginia (7-1): @ MD: W 18-17
13) UConn (6-1): vs Lville: W 21-17
14) Virginia Tech (6-1): BYE
If you're going to play "who have you beaten", and "how bad is your loss", then right now you just have to have UConn above Virginia Tech, and with such a close loss @ UVA, it's tough to have them more than one or two slots below the Cavs.
15) Cal (5-2): @ UCLA: L 21-30
16) South Carolina (6-2): vs Vandy: L 6-17
It's tough to peg them right now. They beat Kentucky, they beat Georgia, and they competed against LSU. But losing to Vandy at home is a bad loss. I can see them rebounding in a big way, and I can see them dropping a few more. It'll be very interesting to see how they react to this loss.
17) USC (6-1): @ ND: W 38-0
It's really tough to accurately peg the Trojans right now. On the one hand, this was a victory that indicated they might be "back". On the other hand, they really haven't beaten anyone particularly good so far, which means that this could well all be a fraud. We'll know a lot more next Saturday in Eugene.
18) Kentucky (6-2): vs FL: L 37-45
19) Georgia (5-2): BYE
20) Penn St (6-2): @ Ind: W 36-31
21) Cincinnati (6-2): @ Pitt: L 17-24
22) Hawaii (7-0): BYE
23) Auburn (5-3): @ LSU: L 24-30
24) Michigan (6-2): @ Ill: W 27-17
25) Texas (6-2): @ Baylor: W 31-10
To be honest, the whole group of 15 on down seems like a pretty big jumble. It's going to take a few more weeks to sort it all out.
Dropped Out:
22) Illinois
25) Kansas St
On the Cusp:
Alabama, Illinois, Texas Tech, UCLA
Last Week:
1) Ohio St (7-0): vs Kent: W 48-3
2) BC (7-0): @ ND: W 27-13
3) Oregon (5-1): vs WSU: W 53-7
4) Arizona St (6-0): vs Wash: W 44-20
5) USF (6-0): vs UCF: W 64-12
6) Oklahoma (6-1): vs Mizzou: W 41-31
7) LSU (6-1): @ Kentucky: L 37-43 (OT)
8) South Carolina (6-1): @ UNC: W 21-15
9) Missouri (5-1): @ OK: L 31-41
10) Kentucky (5-1): vs LSU: W 43-37 (OT)
11) Cal (5-1): vs OrSt: L 28-31
12) Kansas (6-0): vs Baylor: W 58-10
13) WV (5-1): BYE
14) Florida (4-2): BYE
15) Cincinnati (6-1): vs Lville: L 24-28
16) Virginia Tech (6-1): @ Duke: W 43-14
17) USC (5-1): vs AZ: W 20-13
18) Virginia (6-1): vs UConn: W 17-16
19) UConn (5-1): @ UVA: L 16-17
20) Georgia (5-2): vs Vandy: W 20-17
21) Penn St (5-2): vs Wisc: W 38-7
22) Illinois (5-2): @ Iowa: L 6-10
23) Hawaii (6-0): @ SJ St: W 42-35 (OT)
25) Auburn (5-2): @ Ark: W 9-7
25) Kansas St (4-2): vs Colo: W 47-20
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
