This is another really, really good weekend of football. USC - Oregon is a great highlight, and Cal - ASU could well be just as good. Throw in another trio of potentially intruiging games and this is one of the best Pac-10 slates of the year. And with some other really good games around the country, including a big one on Thursday, this is another "must see" weekend of football.
USC @ Oregon (-3)
(preseason pick: USC)
Two teams that seem to be heading in opposite directions come together in this huge game for both. USC has been struggling of late, scraping by Washington and Arizona and actually losing to Stanford. Meanwhile, Oregon has been on fire, tearing through their whole schedule other than the close loss to Cal a few weeks ago. For the last few years, USC has been the undisputed king of the conference, but now the Ducks have a golden opportunity to knock them off their perch.
USC's defense is extremely talented, but it's going to be really tough for them to stop the Duck offense. With Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart, a good line, and a still good (though depleted) receiver corps, this is as dangerous as any attack in the country. The Trojan D has played well so far, but this is a whole different challenge for them. If they can't adjust to Oregon's speed and Dixon's excellent reading ability, this will be a very long day for them.
On the Other Hand:
USC seems to actually be getting healthier, while the Duck injury list just gets longer every week. That's a very big edge for the Trojans. Moreover, under Pete Carroll USC has done a consistently good job of playing in all sorts of hostile environments, which means that the Autzen edge may not be as big a factor in this game as it tends to be in other big games.
Also, while the Trojans have struggled a bit, their offense seems to have really found its rythm of late under QB Sanchez. Against Oregon's defense, which has struggled a lot at times, they are very capable of scoring points in bunches. Throw in a couple key defensive stops, and suddenly you've got a pretty good recipe for an upset.
Bottom Line:
The injury list for Oregon, and USC's historic tendency to play very well in big games, make this a tough pick. However, the real tiebreaker here is that Oregon has played well against a legitimately challenging schedule, while USC's success has been against a pretty cushy slate. Until the Trojans beat a legitimately good team, the benefit of the doubt has to go the other way.
@ Oregon 34, USC 20
Cal @ Arizona St (-3)
(preseason pick: Cal)
Of all of the games on the slate this week, I find this to be the hardest one to predict. At first glance, it might seem easy. Arizona State has been rolling, beating up opponent after opponent. Cal is on a two-game losing streak, and now has to pick up the pieces after the pair of heartbreaking losses. Arizona State has had a defense that has played really well, while Cal's defense has been mediocre all year long. Arizona State is rested after a bye game, while Cal isn't. Arizona State has a healthy quarterback in Rudy Carpenter, while Cal's Nathan Longhsore still isn't fully back. And lest we forget, this game will be in Tempe, where ASU is always tough to beat.
On the Other Hand:
There are a few big factors that make me suspect that an upset is in order. The first is the injury to ASU running back Ryan Torain. Cal's big weakness all year has been their run defense, and every time they've been challenged or beaten the other guys have had a lot of success running the ball. Keegan Herring is good, but that's still a huge dropoff, and that means that ASU may not have quite the same level of success other teams have had against the Bear D.
The other big factor is Cal's passing game. Longshore still isn't 100%, but he should be more ready than he was last week. And if he's healthy enough to confidently throw the deep ball, watch out. It's been a few weeks since Jackson has really taken over a game, which probably means he's due for another huge performance. And ASU's pass defense has been up and down despite never facing anything like this before. That's a big red flag for anyone thinking this will be an easy Sun Devil win.
Bottom Line:
This is one of those games that can truly go either way, and I really wouldn't be at all surprised to see either team win convincingly. And while ASU has been better and is at home, my gut, says that Cal is going to bounce back here. Lacking any truly convincing reason to go the other way, that's going to be my pick.
Cal 34, @ ASU 31
UCLA (-6) @ Washington St
(preseason pick: Washington St)
So, can UCLA finally win a game they're supposed to, or are they about to suffer yet another upset? The line says that the upset is a distinct possibility, and there are some big reasons to think that might be the case. First of all, it's UCLA on the road, which is always a dangerous proposition. Moreover, this year the Cougars have been playing pretty well at home, as opposed to the last few years where they're been much more of a road team.
Just as importantly, there is one very key matchup that favors the home team. Washington State has a good quarterback and a good group of receivers, and UCLA has struggled at times with their pass defense. If you think that Alex Brink is good enough to carry his team to a big upset or two (and I do), then this has to count as a very real possibility. And in a game that Wazzu really, really needs to have (they're 2-5 and with a game at Cal next week, simply cannot afford a loss), expect them to pull out all the stops to get the win.
On the Other Hand:
UCLA still has a good defense, and still has a lot of talent on offense. When they're clicking, they're really tough to beat. That win agaisnt Cal could very well be a springboard that launches this team into serious contention for the Pac-10 title. If they carry their momentum forward, and finally take a lesser opponent seriously, the Cougars just aren't good enough to win this game.
Bottom Line:
The big question is, which UCLA team shows up? The one that beat Cal, and that whipped Stanford and Oregon State? Or the one that had those awful losses to Utah and Notre Dame? It seems hard to believe that they'll pull something like that yet again, but this is really the type of game that I just don't expect them to take all that seriously, especially in the wake of last week's win. And the Cougars will definitely give this game their best shot. If they're good enough to nearly beat ASU a few weeks ago, then they'll be good enough to beat a UCLA team that won't be giving 100%.
@ WSU 24, UCLA 21
Arizona @ Washington (-3.5)
(preseason pick: Arizona)
In a game between two struggling teams that have so far combined for just one league win, something has to give. At first glance, it looks like it'll be the Cats who give. Washington hasn't been winning, but they're been competing against the best teams in the league, throwing good scares into USC and Oregon, and at least competing for a while on the road against UCLA and Arizona State. Arizona, meanwhile, has been in free fall, losing to anyone with any sort of a pulse, except for that win against Washington State.
The big edge the Huskies have here, besides having played at a higher level, has to be Jake Locker. The Wildcats haven't gotten consistent play anywhere on offense, but Washington's offense has been pretty good, and Locker is the main reason. And against a defense that has been thoroughly beatable week after week, you have to think he's going to be in for a very big day.
On the Other Hand:
Can Arizona really keep on underachieving as badly as they have been? With all of the talent on their roster, you just have to believe that they're going to turn it around sooner or later. And they'll definitely have a chance against a Husky team that is far too used to falling short. If the Huskies just don't have the will to come back from their tough stretch and all of their tough to swallow losses, Arizona should be good enough to take advantage.
Bottom Line:
Mike Stoops' tendency to come up with big job-saving wins over the last two seasons is a scary X-factor here, but looking at how these teams have been playing, there's just no good reason to not take Washington. They're the better team, and with a soft finishing stretch, they still have an outside shot at a bowl if they get hot. With something real to play for, expect them to have a mental edge, which will be more than enough for them to take control of this game with plenty of room to spare.
@ Washington 31, Arizona 17
Stanford @ Oregon St (-13.5)
(preseason pick: Oregon St)
In last week's Stanford game at Arizona, I opened with "So, which team is going to show up for this game?" And to be honest, the same theme holds true in this game. Stanford has been up and down, playing well against USC and San Jose State, playing OK against TCU and Oregon (both losses), and playing poorly the rest of the time for the most part. Oregon St has also been up and down, playing well against Utah, Arizona and Cal, and playing poorly against Cincy, Arizona St and UCLA.
So again, which team shows up? If Oregon State plays like they did against Cal, when they didn't make many mistakes, and when running back Yvenson Bernard and the defense both did a very good job, and if Stanford plays as poorly as they did last week against Arizona, where they only won because the Wildcats were even worse, this could be a total blowout. If the Beavers are running the ball well, playing good defense, and winning the turnover and penalty battle, this game won't even be remotely close.
On the Other Hand:
If Stanford plays like they did against USC and San Jose State, where they were largely mistake-free and at a good level on both sides of the ball, and if Oregon State comes out with another four or more turnover performance, this is going to be an upset. Beaver QB Canfield has shown himself to be very vulnerable to throwing errant passes, and one thing Stanford has done well is make the picks when they are available. Moreover, the Beaver pass defense has consistently struggled, and that's not a good thing against a Stanford offense that has a lot of talent in the passing game, especially at receiver.
Bottom Line:
I'm enough of a Canfield skeptic to belive that there is a very real upset possibility here. That said, Bernard and the Beaver defense should be good enough to overcome a few bad passes here and there. In a game where the winner is in great position to make a bowl and the loser will have a challenging road ahead, the Beavers will get a bit of a scare, but as the better team at home, they should be able to pull this one out.
@ Oregon St 31, Stanford 21
National Games of the Week:
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-3)
I certainly get that Lane is a really tough place to play. That said, BC is the better team, and a good senior quarterback will help a lot in overcoming the noise factor.
BC 24, @ VT 21
Ohio St (-4) @ Penn St
This is a pretty tough game to pick. Ohio St is certainly the better team, and by a fair margin, but Happy Valley is absolutely brutal to play in when the Lions are good. Still, I have to go with the Buckeyes. They got knocked off two years ago here, and this time they'll be ready.
Ohio St 21, @ Penn St 14
South Florida (-4) @ UConn
USF is certainly a good team, but I really think UConn is being underestimated yet again. Just because they got a monumental break agaisnt Louisville does not mean that they aren't a good team. The whole resume is pretty comparable to the Bulls', and with everyone on USF's bandwagon, I'll go ahead and go the other way.
@ UConn 21, USF 17
West Virginia (-6.5) @ Rutgers
Rutgers isn't bad, but West Virginia is just too good. Home-field won't be enough in this game.
West Virginia 35, @ Rutgers 17
Georgia vs Florida (-9)
This is a pretty good line. I can see Georgia giving the Gators a game, and maybe even winning, but I'll lean towards Florida given how how they are right now.
Florida 34, Georgia 21
South Carolina @ Tennessee (-3)
Hmm... This is an interesting game between two talented but inconsistent teams that could very well go either way. In a low-confidence pick, I'll go with the coaching edge over home-field.
South Carolina 31, @ Tennessee 28
Bad Lines
Pitt + 10.5
So apparently 3-4 Pitt is so much worse than 4-4 Louisville that they're getting double digits? That seems a bit high to me.
Air Force +5.5
So apparently Vegas thinks that New Mexico is about a field goal better than the Zoomies. I'll go ahead and ride Air Force yet another week, thanks.
UNLV +10.5
This is more of a pick against Wyoming than one for UNLV. It's just a few too many points for a team that has been struggling so much other than the big early win over Virginia.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
