Week Ten Storylines

New coaches in big games highlight the stories to watch in the week ahead.

MY RANKINGS
Storylines
October 30, 2007

Well, that was a little different.

After weeks of massive upsets, the favorites survived for the most part on Saturday. That is especially true if you ignore the fact that Florida lost to Georgia and South Florida lost to Connecticut. The top teams in the rankings all won, which means there really was not much change, or room to change.

Now, it is time for November football, which is a whole different breed of football. Kansas is about to find that out, who has almost never been in this position. So is Arizona State, which has not been in a position like this since 1996. So is Boston College, which also is rarely in this position. The intensity is higher in November, and when you are one of the hunted this late in the season, everything is different.

Let’s start looking ahead to November’s first week!

1) New Coaches in Key Showdowns. Four of the nation’s first year coaches play in some of the weekend’s bigger games this Saturday. Jeff Jagodzinski is in his first year at Boston College, and his team will be hosting Florida State in a massive ACC Atlantic Division game, along with a big game for the number two Eagles. Dennis Erickson has been around the block for a while, but this is his first year at Arizona State. The Sun Devils will be going to Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon in a match-up of what is currently the top two teams in the Pac Ten. Alabama’s Nick Saban is back in the SEC, and he will be coaching against his former team, LSU, on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa. The winner has an inside track to the SEC West title, and LSU is hoping to get to the national championship game. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly has gotten his team off to a 6-2 starts, but they have lost two in a row. They will head to South Florida to take on a Bulls team that has also lost two in a row. Both are still hoping to be able to win the Big East title, but both need a lot of help. The winner will stay alive, while the loser will be out. It is a huge weekend for coaches at their new schools.

2) Winning At Home. Three of the four BCS conference unbeatens are playing at home this weekend, but all three are against opponents that could beat them. Ohio State hosts Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are everyone’s number one team, and most expect them to roll into Ann Arbor unbeaten on the last weekend against Michigan. However, the Badgers were expected by many to win the Big Ten in the preseason, so this is no easy task for the Buckeyes. Boston College hosts Florida State. While the Seminoles appear to be down this year, they have been the big boy on the ACC block for years. It is never easy to beat the Seminoles if you are an ACC team, no matter how much it appears that you should be able to. Finally, Kansas is playing at home against Nebraska. Doesn’t it seem like just yesterday that Nebraska had beaten Kansas for 36 straight years? Now the Jayhawks are 17 point favorites in this one. But remember, the Cornhuskers played Texas close last week before losing late in Austin. This is not a sure thing for Kansas. Can these three unbeatens remain that way at home?

3) Upset Shots in the SEC. There are just three SEC conference games this Saturday, and all three have some upset potential. First of all, Vanderbilt travels to Florida. Some may have forgotten that the last time the Commodores were in Gainesville, they lost to Florida in overtime, and played Florida very close in Nashville last year. This year, the two teams have identical 5-3 records heading into the game. A Vanderbilt win would get them right into the thick of the SEC East race, while Florida needs a win just to keep slim hopes alive in the East. Yes, it has been that kind of year in the SEC. LSU heads to Alabama in a game where LSU will be heavily favored, but the winner will become the odds on favorite to win the SEC West, with the two teams currently tied atop the standings. Finally, South Carolina heads to Arkansas, in a game that the Gamecocks have to win if they are going to win the SEC East. The Razorbacks are out of the SEC West title chase, but the Gamecocks are close in the East. Arkansas has been beating up on North Texas, Florida International, and Chattanooga, so their recent four wins in five games is a bit deceiving. However, they are certainly good enough to beat the Gamecocks. It should be a very interesting week in the SEC.

GAMES TO WATCH

Each week, three games will be listed in this space. The point of this section is to give Joe the Average College Football Fan a list of games to watch that will help them to best argue at the end of the year who should be in the BCS bowl games, in particular the BCS National Championship Game, and who will win those games. You want to be a fan that knows what he’s talking about, so this section, if watched throughout the year, is meant to help make you the person who argues better than anyone else who should be in the BCS bowl games and who will win them. The number in parentheses represents the number of times the team has appeared in this section this year.

LSU (6) at Alabama (2) (5:00 CBS)- The Tigers are right in the thick of the national title race, and are the favorites to win the SEC. But something strange is happening on the way to the SEC Championship Game- the West is not just laying down for them. It seems only appropriate that former LSU coach Nick Saban, now at Alabama, would be standing in their way. This is going to become one of the fiercest rivalries in the SEC West for as long as Saban is at Alabama. LSU’s defense has been exposed to some extent by Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn. The offense has stepped up in those games though. Matt Flynn is becoming more and more efficient at quarterback, while the running game is solid. For Alabama, in their dominant performance against Tennessee, John Parker Wilson finally looked like the quarterback everyone thought he would be this year. This is a great chance for him to show what he is made of. With Terry Grant and Glen Coffey running the ball, this Alabama offense is dangerous. The crowd will be jacked, and the SEC West title is on the line in what should be one of the best SEC battles this year.

Arizona State (2) at Oregon (2) (6:45 ESPN)- The Sun Devils and the Ducks are two great teams, and both are still in the national championship race. Rudy Carpenter is at quarterback for Arizona State. The Sun Devils offense has been rolling, but it was really the defensive performance last weekend against California that was so impressive. Dennis Dixon may have thrust himself into the frontrunner position in the Heisman Trophy race with his performance last week for the Ducks against USC. The quarterback can run and throw while this defense has been solid, but not spectacular. Both defenses seem to be improving. With so much on the line, this game really should be one of the best games of the day. This is a can’t miss game.

Florida State (1) at Boston College (3) (8:00 ABC)- The Seminoles are all but out of the ACC Atlantic Division race, with three conference losses already. Boston College is in control in the division, with at least a one game lead on everyone, and the tiebreaker edge on Wake Forest, the team closest to them in the standings. But it is their shot at the national championship that makes this one critical. Matt Ryan is a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. His play this week will be critical against the solid Seminoles defense. Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee are the two-headed quarterback at Florida State. Neither has played as well as they need to for the Seminoles to be successful consistently. To win in Boston, they will need a solid performance from their offense, and get their defense to stand tall. This ought to be an interesting game to see if Boston College can continue on their way towards the national championship game.

QUICK HITTERS

--Boston College had better look better than THAT if they want to hold onto the number two ranking. However, let’s remember, teams that win championships almost always have to survive one game they have no business winning.

--Is this Kansas year? Or are they like Rutgers last year- a team that has a historic start to the season, but still loses twice before the end of the regular season, including one game they really shouldn’t lose? It’s a valid question, but the Jayhawks certainly appear to be for real.

--OK, call me crazy, but the one game I’m looking forward to more than any other over the rest of the season might just be Missouri at Kansas on November 24. I never thought I’d say that.

--Let’s just say that Connecticut wins their next three games (no easy task). Then West Virginia loses to say Louisville or Cincinnati. The November 24 game between UConn and WVU would not be for the Big East title- the Huskies would already have it locked up.

--The second most anticipated game might be Boise State at Hawaii on November 23. I know I’m ready for that WAC game. The winner might just get into the BCS, while the loser may be out. Yes, I know Boise State has one loss already.


Below are my weekly rankings. I am ranking the teams based on how they have performed up until now, not based necessarily on where I think they will finish the season. The number in parentheses represents where the team was ranked a week ago. After the rankings are a few comments on the rankings.

1. Ohio State 9-0 (1)
2. Arizona State 8-0 (2)
3. LSU 7-1 (5)
4. Oklahoma 7-1 (4)
5. Boston College 8-0 (3)
6. Oregon 7-1 (6)
7. Kansas 8-0 (7)
8. West Virginia 7-1 (10)
9. Missouri 7-1 (8)
10. Georgia 6-2 (24)
11. Virginia Tech 6-2 (13)
12. USC 6-2 (12)
13. Connecticut 7-1 (20)
14. South Florida 6-2 (9)
15. Texas 7-2 (17)
16. Auburn 6-3 (22)
17. Florida 5-3 (11)
18. Michigan 7-2 (18)
19. Alabama 6-2 (--)
20. Wake Forest 6-2 (--)
21. California 5-3 (16)
22. Tennessee 5-3 (--)
23. South Carolina 6-3 (14)
24. Kentucky 6-3 (15)
25. Hawaii 8-0 (25)

--One question. Do I have to rank teams 10-25? Can we just call everyone even and get it over with?

--Wisconsin, Clemson, Purdue, Virginia, and Boise State are all on the cusp of being ranked.

--Missouri probably deserves a better fate, but which of those teams can I beat them ahead of? It’s tough to find a team. However, anyone not putting them in their Top Ten simply has not been watching football this year. The Tigers should probably be considered the favorites in the Big Twelve right now. If they can win at Kansas, they would play in the Big Twelve Championship Game, and I like their chances against a South team on a neutral field.

If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to e-mail me at [e-mail]. Thanks for reading!