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Texas Tech
(6-3)
at Baylor
(3-6)
3:00 PM
Why to watch:
0-11. You have to to back to 1995 and
the old days of the Southwest Conference
to find the last Baylor win over Texas
Tech, and if the Red Raiders have any
dreams of getting back into the race for
the better Big 12 bowls, they have to
make it 12 in a row. Even at 2-3 in Big
12 play, there's still time to make some
noise with Texas and Oklahoma to close
things out, and there's still time for
the year to go in the tank. The offense
has to get on track again, and the
defense has to come up with more
meaningful stops. On the other side is
Baylor, a Texas Tech wannabe with the
way it tries to wing the ball around. On
a five game losing streak, a home win is
a must with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State
still to deal with.
Why Texas
Tech might win: Baylor isn't just
losing, it's getting bombed. The Bears
have been outscored 217 to 55, or an
average of 43 to 15. The Bears haven't
come up with any consistency on offense,
mainly because the quarterbacks can't
stop giving the ball away, leading the
nation with 31 giveaways and 22
interceptions. It's not like the Red
Raider offense needs easy chances, but
the defense should be able to provide
them. It might be just this simple:
Baylor doesn't have the offense to
outscore Tech.
Why Baylor might win:
Texas Tech has been doing its part to
screw up, too. Graham Harrell has thrown
eight interceptions in the last two
weeks and has had problems when under
steady pressure. The Baylor defense
might stink, but it does a great job of
getting into the backfield. While the D
might sell out to get to the
quarterback, it's done so at the expense
of the secondary. That's a chance BU is
going to have to take. Get to Harrell,
slow down the Tech offense, hope the
offense suddenly catches fire. Baylor is
averaging fewer than 20 points per game,
but it has the passing game to wing it
around with anyone averaging 287 yards
per game.
Who to watch: Last
week, the Baylor coaching staff said
that Michael Machen would be the starter
for the foreseeable future. That was
until he completed five of 14 passes for
02 yards with two interceptions against
Kansas State. It's back to Bake
Szymanski, a junior who is the best
passing option, and has three 400-yard
passing games this year to his credit,
but has been suffering the after-effects
from a concussion. Cleared to play, he
gives the Bears the best shot of keeping
up in a shootout. Meanwhile, Graham
Harrell is looking to get back on track
after throwing four interceptions in
each of the last two games with just
four touchdown passes. He threw just
three picks in the first seven games,
and now is out of the Heisman race he
was in the thick of just a few weeks
ago. He ripped up Baylor for 483 yards
and four touchdowns last year and needs
to be just as good to make Texas Tech,
Texas Tech again.
What will happen:
Texas Tech will get back on track with a
500+ yard passing day with several big
drives early on to put the game away.
Baylor will get in its yards, but won't
come up with nearly enough points to
keep up the pace.
CFN Prediction:
Texas Tech
45 ... Baylor 21 ...
Line: Texas Tech -21
Must See Rating: (5
Heidi Klum on
Victoria's Secret Fashion Show -
1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ...
2
Missouri
(7-1)
at Colorado
(5-4)
6:30 PM
Why to watch:
Last year at this time, Missouri was
cruising along at 7-1 and in a perfect
position to win the Big 12 North. Down
went star pass rusher Brian Smith, the
Tigers lost at home to Oklahoma, and
went on to lose four of the final five
games of the year. Now Missouri is 7-1
again, it lost one of its best defensive
players, Cornelius "Pig" Brown to a torn
Achilles tendon, and has to hope that
the overall timing is just a
coincidence. Colorado is in the midst of
a big bounceback season going 3-2 in Big
12 play with wins over Oklahoma and
Texas Tech. Beating Missouri wouldn't
just make Colorado bowl eligible, and
signal a nice turnaround after last
year's disaster, but it would also put
it in a great position to finish no
worse than second in the North. Kansas
would need to lose three times, and the
Buffs would have to win out, but just
getting a win over a BCS contender like
Mizzou would be big going into winnable
dates with Iowa State and Nebraska to
close the year
Why Missouri might win:
The Colorado defense is playing
extremely well, but it's pass rush is
hit or miss, and it won't generate
enough pressure to throw off Chase
Daniel. The Tiger quarterback is one of
the nation's most efficient passers, and
unlike Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, who had
problems late against Buffs, and Texas
Tech's Graham Harrell, who was dropped
three times and pressured on several
other big plays, he can run. Daniel will
be on the move to make plays outside the
pocket and also take off running, sort
of like Kansas QB Todd Reesing was able
to do two weeks ago.
Why Colorado might win:
Missouri's pass defense is giving up 278
yards per game, mostly because teams
have to play catch-up, but without
Brown, the already suspect secondary all
of a sudden has a major hole. Colorado's
passing game hasn't always been sharp,
but for the most part, Cody Hawkins has
come through when needed. CU would like
to run the ball first and foremost, but
Mizzou's defensive front is too stout to
expect regular production. Hawkins has
been able to throw for 200 yards or more
seven times this season, and while he
has thrown 14 interceptions, he only has
two games with more picks than
touchdowns. CU lost both (Florida State
and Kansas State). CU is 5-1 when
Hawkins throws two touchdown passes.
Who to watch:
This is a game about Colorado's two
defensive stars. Senior CB Terrence
Wheatley has been one of the best in the
nation all season long, and he cemented
a spot on the First Team All-Big 12 team
with a three-pick day in the win over
Texas Tech, to go along with four
tackles. He has to be the second player
looks out for on every play, with the
first being LB Jordon Dizon, who has
made a whopping 110 tackles, 76 of them
solo, on the year. This week he'll be
spying on Daniel to make sure he doesn't
take off, while getting to handle the
star Mizzou tight ends coming across the
middle. He's almost certain to make
double-digit stops, but most importantly
this week, he has to break up some
passes.
What will happen:
Colorado is starting to become nasty
again, with the type of swagger and
skill it had during the heyday fo the
Gary Barnett era. Unfortunately for the
Buffs, Missouri really is that good. CU
won't be able to keep up with the Tiger
offensive balance.
CFN Prediction:
Missouri 38
... Colorado 23
...
Line: Missouri -4
Must See Rating: (5
Heidi Klum on
Victoria's Secret Fashion Show -
1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ...
3.5
Texas A&M
(6-3) at Oklahoma
(7-1)
8:00 PM ABC
Why to watch:
A 35-7 loss to Texas Tech ... didn't
matter. A 19-11 loss to Kansas last week
... didn't happen. Among all the
off-the-field issues facing Dennis
Franchione and Texas A&M, on the field,
the program's fortunes could go from
bleak, with a new coaching regime all
but certain start up next year, to
180-degree different with three straight
wins. All the Aggies need to do is win
their final three games, and get an
Oklahoma State loss, and they'll be the
Big 12 South Champions. Sounds easy,
right? All they have to do is beat
Oklahoma on the road, Missouri in
Columbia, and get past Texas. Fine, so
A&M might quickly turn into Nebraska
South with that schedule, but in a
season when things haven't gone quite
right, it's all still right there for
the taking. Last year, Oklahoma made its
biggest statement on the way to the Big
12 title when Bob Stoops, holding on to
a 17-16 lead, chose to go for a fourth
and one in his own territory to try to
end the game. OU got it, and now it's on
a four-game winning streak over the
Aggies and have won seven of the last
eight. A&M hasn't won in Norman since
1997, and with the Sooner averaging
56.25 points per game at home this year,
breaking the streak isn't going to be a
breeze.
Why Texas A&M might win:
No one has lined up and played
smashmouth with the OU defense. The
Sooners have the nation's number three
run defense, but it faced Missouri
without Tony Temple, gave up 110 yards
to Colorado's Hugh Charles, and faced a
Texas team that isn't exactly consistent
in the running game this year. This
needs to be a game for A&M to line up
with Jorvorskie Lane in the backfield
and get physical from snap one. It'll be
tempting to try to beat the Sooner
corners deep, but if the Aggies go with
their fastball, they should have some
success as the game goes on.
Why
Oklahoma might win:
Get ready to put Sam Bradford back in
the Heisman chase after this game. A&M
doesn't have much of a pass rush,
Oklahoma's pass protection has been
terrific, and the OU receivers should
rip apart a secondary that's struggled
against everyone. It hasn't been just
Texas Tech and Nebraska who've fattened
up on the Aggie defensive backs, Miami
put up 275 yards and Fresno State went
for 260. Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin
Iglesias should have few problems coming
up with big days.
Who to watch: Oklahoma sophomore
Auston English has emerged as one of the
Big 12's best young pass rushers with a
league leading eight so far. A former
high school running back, he's a
tackle-strong player against the run
with 31 stops so far, but his real worth
has been as a steady pass rusher with a
sack in four of the last five games and
12 tackles for loss on the year.
What will happen:
For all intents and purposes, the Dennis
Franchione will come to an unofficial
end after Oklahoma puts up a monster
number on the board. The Sooners are way
too strong at home and will do whatever
they want offensively.
CFN Prediction:
Oklahoma
45 ... Texas A&M 20 ...
Line: Oklahoma -20.5
Must See Rating: (5
Heidi Klum on
Victoria's Secret Fashion Show -
1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ...
3.5
Big 12 Week
10 Predictions, Part 1 |
