Rising:
Washington St: A big win for a team that really needed one.
Arizona: They won, which is a nice change for them.
Arizona St: It's becoming increasingly clear that this is an absolute beast.
Oregon: Not the most impressive win ever, but a big statement for them.
Hovering:
Oregon St: It was good to win, but Bernard's injury is troubling.
Falling:
Stanford: A tough loss for the Cardinal.
USC: The loss very clearly marked the end of an era. That said, they still played reasonably well.
Cal: Another tough loss for the Bears. They are in a really tough place right now.
UCLA: Obviously.
Washington: The loss they absolutely, positively, could not afford to have.
@ Oregon (-3) 24, USC 17
(my pick: @ Oregon 34, USC 20)
At the start of the game, Oregon fumbled the kickoff and USC recovered. A couple of plays later, and the rout... was NOT on. The Ducks held on fourth down, scored a first quarter touchdown to take the lead, and generally made the big plays when they counted.
What to take from this:
If you're USC:
This is a huge departure from the Trojan teams of the past few years. While they have certainly suffered upsets, they were generally in the games where they simply didn't come to play. In big games, home or away, year after year they would come in and dominate. This time, they didn't. Certainly, this is still a very good team, but at least for now, the mantle has been passed. Maybe they'll be back to the same dominant team next year, but right now they simply aren't scary anymore.
If you're Oregon:
This was a big, big win for the Ducks. Yes, they didn't play incredibly well, yes there were turnovers, and yes, the defense gave up a few too many yards, but the important thing is that they won. USC, especially on defense, gave them a good shot, but they took it and won anyway. We didn't learn a lot about this team today, but for the sake of momentum and pride, this was a very big win for them.
@ Arizona St (-3) 31, Cal 20
(my pick: Cal 34, @ ASU 31)
For a littel while, it looked like Cal was going to dominate this game. They made a ton of big plays in the first quarter, but ASU was able to hold them to field goals twice instead of touchdowns, and once they got going, that became decisive. The Sun Devils started to heat up in the second quarter, and then dominated the second half, turning a tough loss into a surprisingly easy win.
What to take from this:
If you're Cal:
Right now, this team isn't good enough to feel comfortable about games with anyone. Longshore is still hurt, the defense is mediocre, and the running game isn't good enough to succeed when the pass isn't working. The Bears desperately need to beat Wazzu next week, because if they don't then they're really going to be in trouble.
If you're Arizona St:
Right now, this team is as good as anyone. Period. They can't afford to start slowly against the best teams, but it's clear that when they're at their best, even without Torain, they're an absolute beast.
@ Washington St 27, UCLA (-6) 7
(my pick: @ WSU 24, UCLA 21)
Early on, this was a close game, with each team getting some shots
in, and the Cougars went into halftime up by a field goal. And in the third quarter, UCLA was still in it, especially once the Cougars missed a field goal to end the period. But then Wazzu got a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, and the Bruins just werne't able to mount a serious challenge afterward.
What to take from this:
If you're UCLA:
Yet another head-scratcher for this team. It's increasingly obvious that the Bruins go as their offense goes, since the defense, at least, was generally decent here, giving up yards but very few points until the very end. But with such an inconsistent offense, this team simply isn't able to count on beating anyone with any sort of defense. And Arizona is the only team left without a decent defense. In other words, they had better find a way to win that game.
If you're Washington St:
It may turn out to be too little too late, but the Cougars have a bowl shot again. If they can come up with a win at reeling Cal, then they'll have a pretty good shot. Despite all appearances over the past month, this team isn't dead yet.
Arizona 48, @ Washington (-3.5) 41
(my pick: @ Washington 31, Arizona 17)
This was a back and forth shootout, with both teams putting up truckloads of points. In the end, the Wildcats were able to get some key stops and tunovers late, and that turned out to be the difference, as they were able to turn a 15-point deficit early in the fourth into a 7-point win.
What to take from this:
If you're Arizona:
It's certainly too little too late, but at least this team was able to put something together. Yes, they didn't get Washington's best effort, but at this stage, all that matters is the win. Don't be shocked if they get someone else's worst effort and get one more before the year is done.
If you're Washington:
After a good start to the year, this team is 2-6, with a six game losing streak, needing to win out to make the postseason. In other words, they're now playing for pride. While it's obvious their defense is terrible, they still have Jake Locker, so if they can get their heads on straight, and play well without committing bad turnovers, they can beat some teams and make this season at least respectable.
@ Oregon St (-13.5) 23, Stanford 6
(my pick: @ Oregon St 31, Stanford 21)
Oregon State came out and played pretty well, jumping out to an early lead. However, Stanford kept in in reach for a while, before the Beavers put it away with four fourth quarter turnovers and six points from Serna.
What to take from this:
If you're Stanford:
They really could have used this game, but they shot themselves in the foot too often, with a blocked field goal and four late turnovers. There has to be a better effort on both sides of the ball next week, or their reeling postseason hopes will be quickly extinguished.
If you're Oregon St:
This was a good win, led by a very good defensive effort. Bernard's injury is troublesome, but it's a great sign that they were able to do well without him, and that Canfield had another game without a pick. This is turning into a pretty good team that will be a tough out for anyone.
Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
Season: 40-14 SU, 28-25 ATS
National Games of the Week:
Boston College 14, @ Virginia Tech (-3) 10
(my pick: BC 24, @ VT 21
Ohio St (-4) 37, @ Penn St 17
(my pick: Ohio St 21, @ Penn St 14
@ UConn 22, South Florida (-4) 15
(my pick: @ UConn 21, USF 17
West Virginia (-6.5) 31, @ Rutgers 3
(my pick: West Virginia 35, @ Rutgers 17
Georgia 42, Florida (-9) 30
(my pick: Florida 34, Georgia 21
@ Tennessee (-3) 27, South Carolina 24 (OT)
(my pick: South Carolina 31, @ Tennessee 28
National Games Record:
This Week: 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS
Season: 17-14 SU, 18-12-1 ATS
Bad Lines
Pitt + 10.5
Covered by 3.5
Air Force +5.5
Covered by 2.5
UNLV +10.5
Covered by 5.5
Bad Lines Record
This week: 3-0
Season: 19-18
My Top 25:
1) Ohio St (9-0): @ PSU: W 37-17
2) Arizona St (8-0): vs Cal: W 31-20
3) Kansas (8-0): @ TxAM: W 19-11
4) BC (8-0): @ VT: W 14-10
5) Oregon (7-1): vs USC: W 24-17
6) LSU (7-1): BYE
7) WV (7-1): @ Rut: W 31-3
Honestly, I feel like I'm probably underrating this team. With games remaining against UConn, Cincy, Louisville and Pitt, they'll have a very real chance of making a big move up.
8) Oklahoma (7-1): BYE
9) Missouri (7-1): vs ISU: W 42-28
10) UConn (7-1): vs USF: W 22-15
11) Georgia (6-2): vs FL: W 42-30
12) USF (6-2): @ UConn: L 15-22
No drop of note for the Bulls, mainly because pretty much everyone else lost, some of which were bad losses.
13) Virginia Tech (6-2): vs BC: L 10-14
14) Cincinnati (6-2): BYE
15) Virginia (7-2): @ NC St: L 24-29
16) Hawaii (8-0): vs NM St: W 50-13
Unproven, but with so many losses by so many teams, they move up pretty much by default.
17) USC (6-2): @ UO: L 17-24
This was NOT a bad loss, and plenty of others lost too, so they turn out not to drop.
18) Auburn (6-3): vs Miss: W 17-3
19) Alabama (7-2): BYE
These two teams are really, really close.
20) South Carolina (6-3): @ Tenn: L 24-27 (OT)
21) Florida (5-3): vs UGA: L 30-42
22) Michigan (7-2): vs Minn: W 34-10
23) Wisconsin (7-2): vs Ind: W 33-3
24) Cal (5-3): @ ASU: L 20-31
25) Texas (7-2): vs Neb: W 28-25
Honestly, this group is just a massive jumble. I can easily accept that any of them could be better or worse than any other.
Dropped Out:
18) Kentucky (6-2)
20) Penn St (6-2)
On the Cusp:
Boise St, Illinois, Kentucky, Penn St, Tennessee
Last Week:
1) Ohio St (8-0)
2) Arizona St (7-0)
3) Kansas (7-0)
4) BC (7-0)
5) Oregon (6-1)
6) LSU (7-1)
7) Oklahoma (7-1)
8) Missouri (6-1)
9) WV (6-1)
10) Florida (5-2)
11) USF (6-1)
12) Virginia (7-1)
13) UConn (6-1)
14) Virginia Tech (6-1)
15) Cal (5-2)
16) South Carolina (6-2)
17) USC (6-1)
18) Kentucky (6-2)
19) Georgia (5-2)
20) Penn St (6-2)
21) Cincinnati (6-2)
22) Hawaii (7-0)
23) Auburn (5-3)
24) Michigan (6-2)
25) Texas (6-2)
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
