This is a bit of a departure from the past few weekends, in that this time around there's really only one Pac-10 game that's must-see, but that one game is absolutely huge. However, there are still a fair amount of other decent games on around the country, so there's still plenty of good football to be had on Saturday.
Arizona St @ Oregon (-7.5)
(preseason pick: Oregon)
Who would have thought at the start of the year that this of all games would be the biggest of the year? USC has had two losses, UCLA has embarrassed themselves too many times, and Cal is on a losing streak, leaving these two teams to play the game that will probably decide the Pac-10 title. Of the two teams, Arizona State has been playing at a higher level. Part of it is that they haven't yet lost, but just as importantly, they haven't put themselves in position to lose. Oregon has been inconsistent, choking away the Cal game, letting Washington hang around until the fourth quarter, and making potentially big mistakes against USC. ASU, meanwhile, has been relatively consistent, struggling early at times but being dominant late in all of their games.
And it's certainly clear that the Sun Devils have the better defense of the two teams. Oregon's D has been good at times, but has been handled too many times to call it a strong unit, while ASU has generally been successful shutting down the other guys. And with the Ducks fighting injuries throughout their offense, a deep and hard-hitting Sun Devil D could be a bit landmine for the home team.
On the Other Hand:
Don't forget that Oregon will have the two best players on the field in quarterback Dennis Dixon and running back Jonathan Stewart. These are two guys who are absolutely capable of taking a game over at any time, and ASU doesn't have an answer for them, especially now that their own running back is out.
The Sun Devils have been good, but their tendency to get behind early could be fatal in this game, because if they start out slow, the Ducks could be up by 20+ points before they know it. And that's the sort of lead that even a team as well-known for 2nd half surges may not be able to overcome.
Bottom Line:
Reports are that Carpenter's thumb won't bother him, but without proof, it's really tough to trust ASU in this game. I definitely think they have a good shot at winning, especially if the Ducks give up a couple turnovers again, but at Autzen and without a totally healthy quarterback, it probably won't happen for them. It's anyone's game, but the Ducks will be the team to pull it out.
@ Oregon 27, ASU 24
Oregon St @ USC (-15)
(preseason pick: USC)
Despite all their recent struggles, USC is still a tremendoubly talented team, and will still have something to stay about the Pac-10 race, with games remaining against both ASU and UCLA. But first, they will have to get by the first team to upset them in 2006, the Oregon State Beavers. And it seems like they're ready to do just that. They still have a great defense, and reports are that QB Booty will finally be healthy enough to play well this week, which ought to get their offense back to a higher level than it has been of late.
And on the other sideline, Oregon State looks to be in big trouble if Yvenson Bernard is out, which seems to be likely based on reports (and he won't be near 100% even if he plays). Without their best player, the Beavers simply won't be the same team. Canfield has gone a few weeks without picks, but if the ball is going to be in his hands all game, and if there is going to be a lot more pressure than he is used to, there's a good chance there'll be some killer turnovers, which could turn the game into a rout.
On the Other Hand:
Oregon State's defense has really stepped it up the past few weeks. They've got a good defense that specializes in stopping the run, which means that USC will have to pass it if they want to do major damage, and it's far from clear that they're capable of doing much in the air right now.
Bottom Line:
My guess is Bernard either doesn't play or is far from 100%. If this is true, the Beavers are at a major disadvantage, and against a fired up Trojan team, they could be in big trouble. The line seems high, but if USC can get rolling, they are very capable of winning big.
@ USC 34, Oregon St 17
Washington St @ Cal (-14.5)
(preseason pick: Cal)
Boy, the upset sure looks tempting here. The Cougars are off of a big win over UCLA, a game in which they played very well on both offense and defense. And Cal has just lost three straight, looking very pedestrian in each of their defeats. Wazzu has a great senior quarterback, while Cal has a gimpy quarterback and a grossly unreliable backup. Wazzu has a defense that just stymied UCLA, while Cal's defense hasn't done much all year. Wazzu is desperately playing for a bowl berth, while Cal is still reeling emotionally from their recent struggles. In other words, it's really easy to talk yourself not only into the points, but the upset outright.
On the Other Hand:
Keep in mind, that was a win over UCLA. The Bruins are so up and down from week to week that you really can't read anything into a game played against them. And if you take that win away, Washington State has done nothing special for quite some time. Cal, meanwhile, actually played reasonably well last week at ASU, only struggling late as they ran out of gas, especially on defense. At the start, they were moving the ball very well, which will only get easier with Longshore getting steadily healthier, and at home against a defense that isn't anywhere near as good as ASU's.
Bottom Line:
It's a mark of how badly Cal is struggling that an upset wouldn't completely shock me. Still, I think they have too much talent, and too many star players capable of making game-changing plays, to get knocked off here. It'll be surprisingly close, but the Bears right the ship with a win.
@ Cal 31, Wash St 27
UCLA (-1.5) @ Arizona
(preseason pick: UCLA)
This almost seems too easy, doesn't it? UCLA clearly doesn't show up consistently, and is reeling after another embarrassing loss, this one at Washington State. Arizona is coming off of positive momentum from their win at Seattle, and is looking to create a winning streak, like they've done the past two years to save Mike Stoops' job.
Moreover, we've seen before how UCLA's defense can struggle against teams that throw the ball, and Arizona has certainly been busy doing that, coming off of a 510 yard passing day by Tuitama. If they can move it well again, they could be in for another upset win.
On the Other Hand:
The other side of the ball doesn't look quite as good for Arizona. Yes, UCLA has struggled on offense, and yes, they're going to miss Bell, but they still have talent, and more importantly, Arizona's defense is an absolute mess. Just about every team they've played has shredded their defense, and nothing seems to be working for that unit. And if there's one thing UCLA has been consistent on, it's that they win when their offense is doing well. It's only when their O gets shut down time and time again that the edge gets taken off the defense and the team gets in trouble, which is what happened in each of their losses. If their offense is doing well, this is a very dangerous team.
Bottom Line:
If Arizona isn't getting gift-wrapped turnovers (which was how they beat Washington), can they beat anyone decent? The answer is probably no, which means that so long as Cowan is healthy enough to play, the Bruins win, and probably without much trouble.
UCLA 38, @ Arizona 14
Washington (-3) @ Stanford
(preseason pick: Stanford)
Stanford comes into this game 2-4 in league play, while Washington comes in winless in the Pac-10. Yet it's the Huskies who are favored, and on the road no less. Why is that? The answer is simple: Jake Locker. This young QB has shown himself to be an incredible weapon, and the same Stanford defense that has been off and on will be in for a major fight against this kid.
And on the other side of the ball, which Stanford will show up? Will it be the one that put up 37 on San Jose St, 31 on Oregon, and 36 on TCU? Or will it be the one that put up 3 against ASU, and 8 against Oregon St (with four turnovers to boot)?
On the Other Hand:
Washington's defense is flat-out awful. They give up yards and points by the truckload, and it's tough to see things being different this week. If Arizona can get more than 500 yards through the air, what sort of numbers can Stanford and their receivers put up?
Moreover, you have to wonder if the Huskies even have anything left in their tank. It's incredibly difficult to handle this kind of losing streak, especially when they so clearly screwed up last week's very winnable game with bad defense and bad turnovers.
Bottom Line:
You know what you're going to get with Washington: good offense, terrible defense, and one or two really bad mistakes. With Stanford, who the heck knows from game to game? With neither team doing anything to instill much confidence, it's clearly anyone's game. Still, I'll take the team that is up and down over the team that has just been down.
@ Stanford 42, Washington 38
National Games of the Week:
LSU (-7.5) @ Alabama
Bama seems to be pretty good, and at home they certainly have a shot at the upset. Still, LSU is better, and will find a way to pull it out in the end.
LSU 17, @ Alabama 14
Rutgers @ UConn (-1.5)
UConn, despite a significantly better record, is priced as if they were the worse team. I'm going to go ahead and disagree with this one.
@ UConn 31, Rutgers 21
Cincinnati @ South Florida (-5)
This low line is a bit of an overreaction to USF's losing streak. They're still the better team, and they're at home.
@ USF 21, Cincy 10
Wisconsin @ Ohio St (-15)
Ever since Ohio State took that monumental cheap shot at Wisconsin's quarterback a few years ago, the Badgers have owned this matchup. The Buckeyes are too good to fall here, but they'll get one heck of a challenge.
@ Ohio St 24, Wisconsin 17
Wake Forest @ Virginia (pick)
Virginia has clearly shown themselves to be an embarrassment on the road, getting blasted by Wyoming and then losing to NC St last week. At home is a different story, though, and they'll bounce back in a big way against a Wake squad that lacks any impressive wins and has done virtually nothing on the road.
@ Virginia 28, Wake Forest 13
Bad Lines
Army + 17
Vegas has spend pretty much the whole season ignoring Air Force, and now comes the inevitable overreaction. This is a rivalry game, Army is coming off of a bye week, and Air Force did in fact just lose to a mediocre team. This is almost a touchdown too high.
Troy +16.5
Off of their big upset of Florida, everyone seems to like Georgia here. Unfortunately for them, not only do they get the letdown factor, they're also going to be looking forward to Auburn. And lest we forget, Troy actually seems to be halfway decent.
Miami -10.5
The Wolfpack is getting too many bonus points here for their big upset last week against Virginia. Combine the letdown factor with Miami at home off a bye, and you're looking at a very likely blowout.
Missouri -3.5
Colorado clearly isn't bad, but Mizzou is just too good to expect this to be this close. Anything under a touchdown just seems weird.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com