SEC
East
Florida
| Georgia
| Kentucky
| South Carolina
| Tennessee
| Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
| Arkansas
| Auburn
| LSU |
Ole Miss
| Miss State
SEC Fearless Predictions
Sept. 1 | Sept.
8 |
Sept. 15 | Sept.
22 |
Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct.
13 |
Oct. 20 | Oct.
27 |
Nov. 3 | Nov. 17 | Nov.
24 | Dec.
1
How are the picks so far? SU: 62-14 ... ATS:
40-24-2
SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
11,
Part 1
|
SEC Saturday,
November 10th |
Arkansas
(6-3)
at Tennessee
(6-3)
12:30
PM
GamePlan
Why to watch: These two
plays some interesting battles. While
the two team have only played 15 times,
with Tennessee winning 12, the first was
in 1907 with a 14-2 win. Mostly a high
scoring series, defined by the Clint
Stoener fumble game in 1998 that
Tennessee pulled out with a miracle to
keep its national title season alive,
things changed last year when Darren
McFadden ran for 193 yards in a 31-14
romp. Fast forward to this year, and
McFadden was having a good, but not
jaw-dropping year, Arkansas had become
an afterthought after early losses to
Alabama and Kentucky, and the season
appeared to be going nowhere. And then
came last week, when McFadden ripped up
South Carolina for 321 yards and a
touchdown, Felix Jones ran for 166 yards
and three scores, and the Hogs blasted
their way to 542 yards and four
touchdowns. Still out of the SEC race,
they can still make a ton of noise over
the final three weeks, and can be huge
spoilers playing LSU in two weeks, and
Tennessee this week. The Vols control
their own destiny in the East, owning
the tie-breaker against Georgia and with
games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky
after this week.
Why Arkansas
might win: Tennessee is mediocre
against the run. Uh oh. The Vols haven't
played their typical strong run defense
with major problems against decent
running backs. Arkansas State's Reggie
Arnold cranked out yards in chunks,
rolling for 130 yards and a touchdown,
Cal's Justin Forsett ran for 156 yards
and a score, Mississippi State's Anthony
Dixon ran for 108, UL Lafayette's Tyrell
Fenroy rolled for 113 and a score, and
South Carolina's Cory Boyd ran for 160
yards and a touchdown. The UT defensive
tackles will have a nightmare of a time
against the strong Arkansas interior
that should give McFadden and Jones
several big cutback lanes. It'll be a
stunner if both don't hit the century
mark. However ...
Why Tennessee might win: ... Cal
was the only team with a 100-yard rusher
to actually beat the Vols. The Arkansas
offensive line might dominate the
Tennessee D line, but the Tennessee O
line could control the game. Arkansas
has played two good teams that can
throw, South Carolina and Kentucky, and
got ripped up by both. This is a good
secondary, but it's beatable by a decent
quarterback who gets time. That won't be
a problem for Erik Ainge, who has only
been sacked three times and is making
almost all the right decisions to keep
the passing game moving. This is a
balanced Volunteer attack that should be
able to control the clock and keep the
Hog running game on the sidelines.
Who to watch: Darren McFadden might
be college football's best player, or a
close second behind LSU DT Glenn Dorsey,
and he might end up being the top pick
in the 2008 NFL Draft, if and when he
chooses to leave early, but running mate
Felix Jones has been even more dangerous
when he gets his chance. After his big
day against South Carolina, he's over
the 1,000-yard mark for the second year
in a row with 11 touchdowns, and two
more on kickoff returns. Most impressive
are his yards per carry averaging 9.27
every time he touches the ball. Don't be
shocked if he starts getting talked
about as a possible top 20 pick if he
chooses to bolt early.
What will happen:
Tennessee will pile up big yards with
Ainge having a huge day, but the lack of
a solid run defense will be the
downfall. The Volunteer linebackers will
be looking a No. 5 and No. 25 pulling
away all game long.
CFN Prediction:
Arkansas 30
... Tennessee 27
...
Line: PICK
Must See Rating:
(5
Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee
Movie) ... 4
Alabama
(6-3)
at Mississippi State
(5-4)
12:30
PM
GamePlan
Why to watch: Go back 53
weeks ago. Mike Shula was putting
together a nice season at Alabama,
starting off the year 6-3 with two
losses by a total of four points and the
other to eventual national champion
Florida. While not a stellar campaign,
it wasn't bad in what was considered a
rebuilding year. And then came a visit
from Mississippi State. The Bulldogs
ripped off a shocking 24-16 win to set
off a four-game losing streak, the end
of the Shula era, and a wild ride that
kept on rolling with last week's
thrilling 41-34 loss to LSU. Oh sure, it
was a loss, and Nick Saban won't allow
anyone to call if a moral victory, but
it was a loss that still gave the
reloading program a major boost of
respect from across the country. MSU has
had two weeks off to prepare after
blowing out Kentucky 31-14 to get in a
position to go bowling for the first
time since the famous 2000 Independence
Bowl win over Texas A&M in the snow.
After this week, the Bulldogs have to go
to Arkansas before finishing with Ole
Miss.
Why Alabama might win:
MSU was able to beat Kentucky by coming
in under the radar. After all, the
Wildcats had come off a rough three game
stretch against South Carolina, LSU and
Florida. MSU will have Alabama's full
attention this week after what happened
last year, and after the win against UK.
The Bulldog offense needs to run well to
win, but that could be a problem against
a Bama defensive front that's gotten
better and better as the season has
rolled on, holding LSU to 87 yards last
week and Tennessee to 103 the week
before. MSU is 5-0 when running for 165
yards or more, and 0-4 when held under.
Bama has only allowed more than 165
rushing yards once this year in the win
over Arkansas.
Why Mississippi State might win:
MSU is playing some killer defense. The
scoring defense might not be the best,
but that's more of a function of the
offense sputtering against a few top
teams and putting the D in a bad
position time and again. Despite lacking
a regular pass rush, the secondary has
been ball-hawking, and the defensive
front has been a brick wall against
everyone's running game but West
Virginia's. Coming off the emotional
loss to LSU, Alabama can say it's
prepared for a battle, but
realistically, it might be asking a lot
to gear up the intensity needed for a
rested and ready MSU D.
Who to
watch: Ever since being thrown into
the full-time role, MSU freshman QB
Wesley Carroll has been more effective
than the coaching staff could've ever
dreamed. He's getting plenty of
protection, but he's also doing a
surprisingly good job of getting rid of
the ball in a hurry while keeping the
mistakes to a minimum. He has yet to
throw an interception in 137 pass
attempts, while throwing four touchdown
passes. If he can go two more passes
without giving it away, he'll own the
NCAA record, currently held by Oklahoma
State head coach Mike Gundy, for the
most passes without a pick by a
freshman. His job against the aggressive
Tide secondary will be to not turn the
ball over, keep the chains moving, and
get just enough on a few early deep
throws to easy the pressure against
Anthony Dixon and the MSU ground game.
What will happen: Don't
expect offensive fireworks with the two
defenses dominating. Carroll will set
the record for most attempts without a
pick by a freshman, but will end up
turning it over a few times and Bama's
offense will take full advantage.
CFN Prediction:
Alabama
23 ... Mississippi State 17
...
Line: Alabama -4.5
Must See
Rating: (5
Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee
Movie) ... 3
Louisiana Tech (4-5) at LSU (8-1)
8:00 p.m. GamePlan
Why to Watch: The Tigers are now
ranked second in the BCS standings, and
that means two things. First, win out,
and it’s on to the national title, so
every game is vital, even a seemingly
unimportant contest against an in-state
non-conference opponent. However, a
little slip, and that means a close win
against Tech, and Oregon will start to
get more consideration. Second, since so
many teams that have been ranked second
this year have lost (Boston College fell
just last week), there is the chance
some sort of jinx exists at the
position, and Louisiana Tech could be
waiting to take advantage of it. Don’t
laugh. The Bulldogs took Texas A&M to
overtime earlier this year and have won
two straight. Granted, they aren’t in
LSU’s class and wouldn’t fare so well
with a steady diet of SEC opposition,
but any time one of the state’s smaller
schools gets a shot at the big cheese,
it approaches the contest with a
crusade-like intensity.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win:
During its modest winning streak, the
Bulldogs have benefited from a solid
running game, led by Patrick Jackson and
Daniel Porter. Jackson rushed for 101
yards and two scores in the win over
Utah State and added 155 and a TD vs.
Idaho, while Porter has gained 314 yards
and scored four times in the last three
LTU games. They are strong complements
to QB Zac Champion, who has displayed
efficiency this week and was strong
against the Vandals, throwing for 227
yards. The Bulldogs excel on defense at
stopping the run and are ranked 21st
nationally in that category. They also
have a plus-six turnover figure and no
doubt took notice of LSU quarterback
Matt Flynn’s three interceptions last
week against Alabama. Flynn must also
worry about linebacker Chris Pugh, who
has 6.5 sacks this year and spends a lot
of time in enemy backfields.
Why LSU Might Win: The Bulldogs
can run it, all right, but the Tigers
are fourth in the nation against the run
and boast a front wall that might be the
nation’s best, beginning with
All-Americas Glenn Dorsey and Kirston
Pittman, who piles up the tackles behind
the line. And though Champion has been
solid, he hasn’t faced a secondary like
LSU’s, which features standout safety
Craig Steltz and shutdown corner Chevis
Jackson. If LTU expects to stymie the
LSU ground game, it had better be ready
for a fight, because the combination of
tailback Jacob Hester between the
tackles and quarterback Ryan Perriloux
(back from a one-game suspension) on
draws and choice option plays is tough
to beat. Flynn did throw three picks
against Alabama, but he also had 353
yards and three touchdowns. The final
problem posed by the Tigers is coach Les
Miles’ continued desire to go for it on
fourth down, which puts great pressure
on opponents who are hoping that a
three-and-out is good enough to get back
the ball.
Who to Watch: This should be a
game for the LSU running game. In what
should be a blowout, the Tigers will
want to get its running game rolling
early, and that should mean more from
Keiland Williams, who’s been an
afterthought for most of the year and
has only five carries in the last three
games. Sophomore Charles Scott should
also get some more work, having yet to
find the end zone since scoring twice
against Kentucky three weeks ago. The
more these two get involved down the
stretch, the more dangerous LSU will be.
What Will Happen: Forget about
the jinx. LSU rolls past the overmatched
Bulldogs and takes another step toward
the BCS title game.
CFN Prediction:
LSU 44 …
Louisiana Tech 6
... Line:
Louisiana Tech -36
Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld:
Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ...
1.5
SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
11,
Part 1