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Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 10, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 7, 2007


Previews and Predictions for the Week 11 Big 12 Games, Part 2


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Big 12 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 58-15 ... ATS: 35-27-1

Big 12 Week 11 Predictions, Part 1

Big 12 Saturday, November 10th

Texas A&M (6-4) at Missouri (8-1)  12:30 PM
Why to watch
: Dennis Franchione might be on his way out and there might be plenty of angst around College Station, but Texas A&M can still make plenty of noise and turn its season around in a huge hurry. The brutal second half of the second doesn't let up with Missouri this week and Texas to close out, and while the Aggies have lost three of their last four games to politely excuse themselves from the Big 12 South discussion, this is a chance to make a huge national splash by ruining Missouri's dream season. It happened last year when the Tigers came to A&M 6-0 only to get steamrolled over in a 25-19 loss, but this is a different Tiger team with a juggernaut of an offense and a run defense that's stopping everyone. In the last home game of the year before going to Kansas State and finishing up with Kansas in Kansas City, Mizzou currently ranked sixth in the BCS, hopes to make enough noise to move up even higher in the rankings. With several big games left to play across the country, yes, the Tigers are still in the thick of the national title chase.
Why Texas A&M might win: If Missouri is going to win this game, it's not because of a mistakes from A&M. The Aggies have been stingy with the ball all year, giving it away just 11 times. Missouri hasn't faced a bruising running game like A&M's, and the same formula that worked last year could work again. Pound the ball, keep the Tiger offense off the field, control the momentum.
Why Missouri might win: Chase Daniel will put up Heisman numbers. A&M's secondary has been torched throughout the year, and got destroyed last week by Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, who caught four of the Sooners' five passing touchdowns. OU QB Sam Bradford wasn't touched, Daniel won't be, either. The junior is coming off a 421-yard, five touchdown day against Colorado with his All-America tight ends, Chase Coffman and Martin Rucker, combining to make 11 catches and four touchdowns. Coffman and Rucker will go ballistic.
Who to watch: A&M was able to beat Missouri last year partly because big, bruising Jorvorskie Lane was able to control the game and take the heart of the Tiger defense with 127 hard yards. That would be his last 100-yard game of the season as the coaching staff stopped feeding him the ball as a workhorse. This year, after dominating Nebraska with 130 yards and four touchdowns, he ran just seven times for 24 yards against Kansas, and was only given the ball five times for 28 yards against Oklahoma. If he was being saved for a special occasion, this is it.
What will happen: Missouri is playing way too well to blow it at home. No one's come close to touching Mizzou in Columbia, while A&M is 1-3 on the road. This isn't going to be pretty.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 41 ... Texas A&M 16  ... Line: Missouri -18.5
Must See Rating: (5
Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 3

Texas Tech (7-3) at Texas (8-2)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to watch
: Texas Tech has done some nice things this year. It's been able to put up some big numbers, get a little attention, and crank out a freshman receiving record helped by the nation's top-ranked offense and No. 1 passing game. Now with Texas and Oklahoma to close out the regular season, it's time to become a player. Too many thing have to happen to win the South, but things could get very interesting if the Red Raiders can pull off wins in the final two games. First things first, they have to deal with a Texas team that's beaten Tech four times in a row, and is on a four-game winning streak. One of the nation's quirkiest teams, the Longhorns have used tremendous fourth quarter comebacks, led by RB Jamaal Charles, to beat Nebraska and Oklahoma State and stay alive for an at-large BCS bid. This hasn't been the prettiest team around, but at 8-2, the bottom-line results haven't been bad.
Why Texas Tech might win: Let's cut to the chase here. Can Texas stop the pass? Not really. The UT corners are getting more help this season than they did with Gene Chizik as defensive coordinator, but they're still having a hard time giving up big yards. Oklahoma State rolled for 430 through the air, and Nebraska bombed away for 315 yards; that was just the last two weeks. The Longhorns gave up five touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last two weeks, and with a mediocre pass rush not likely to bother Tech QB Graham Harrell, Tech should roll for at least 400 yards.
Why Texas might win: Let's cut to the chase here. Is Texas Tech's defense any good in the fourth quarter? Not really. Since Texas appears to be most interested in getting Charles and the offense rolling in the fourth quarter, all the pyrotechnics and all the bells and whistles Tech comes up with won't matter until the final gun sounds. Tech allowed 17 points to Missouri in the fourth quarter and 14 to Oklahoma State, but shut out Colorado in the fourth in the team's other loss. While the Longhorn offense might be wildly inconsistent, it moves the ball well and is one of the few team that can keep pace with Tech in a shootout. Tech has faced three teams that can run. It beat Texas A&M easily, and lost to Oklahoma State and Missouri. Colorado, who's average on the ground, got a 121-yard day out of Hugh Charles. That's why ...
Who to watch: ... Jamaal Charles will be a marked man. Doing his best Darren McFadden impersonation, Charles has ripped off 470 yards and six touchdowns in the last two games with two of the greatest back-to-back fourth quarters in college football history. Against Nebraska, he ran for scores from 25, 86, and 40 yards out in the final frame, and against Oklahoma State he tore off runs from 18 and 75 yards out in the fourth quarter, and 22 yards in the second. He loses a key blocker up front in center Dallas Griffin, who's done for the season with a torn ACL, but he still has senior left tackle Tony Hills, who has come on to be in the All-America mix. The 6-6, 305-pound former tight end has been dominating over the last several weeks.
What will happen: Texas is playing like a team just begging to be lit up. You'll know in the first two drives what's going to happen for the rest of the game. If Texas isn't getting to Harrell, and Tech gets points early, it'll be rolling all day. Charles will get his yards, but the Red Raiders will pull out the shootout with a strong fourth quarter of its own.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 38 ... Texas 34 ... Line: Texas -6.5
Must See Rating: (5
Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 4

Baylor
(3-7) at Oklahoma (8-1)  6:30 PM
Why to watch
: Navy beat Notre Dame after losing 43 straight. Kansas went from being Nebraska's punching bag to coming up with 76 points in an all-timer of a win. Baylor has to be due, right? 0-15 against the Sooners, going back to the old Southwest Conference days, Baylor can come up with a ray of sunshine in yet another lost year by ruining OU's national title dream. However, on a six-game losing streak, BU hasn't even been close since beating Buffalo, getting blasted in Big 12 play by a combined score of 255 to 73, an average of 42.5 to 12.2. On the opposite end of the spectrum is OU, who got back on track after struggling with Iowa State two weeks ago with a 42-14 destruction of Texas A&M. With sneaky-tough games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before going to the Big 12 Championship (barring a major collapse), this needs to be another walk in the park at home.
Why Baylor might win: Oklahoma might have nice numbers and has an elite secondary, but there's still a question mark about how the defensive backs can handle a decent passing team. The Sooners have only played one team, Missouri, that can throw the ball (don't bring up North Texas) and allowed 361 yards to Chase Daniel. Baylor's offense might not be working, but it'll throw and it'll keep on throwing. If the Sooners aren't paying attention, and if they're looking ahead to Texas Tech, they could get plenty of big yards hung on them.
Why Oklahoma might win: Baylor isn't scoring. Over the last four games, the Bears have scored ten, ten, 13 and seven points, and haven't even been remotely close to competitive. Besides the obvious that OU's second and third teams are better than Baylor's No. 1 unit, this is a different, unstoppable team at home averaging 53.4 points per game. It won't take more than two early touchdowns to make this a laugher. Considering Baylor is 118th in the nation in turnover margin, it's unlikely the Bears will get the mistakes needed to make this close.
Who to watch: As if Oklahoma didn't already have one of the nation's best receiving tandems in Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias, a new star, sophomore Jermaine Gresham has emerged as yet another weapon. The tight end, more of a big wide receiver than a top blocker, was unstoppable against Texas A&M last week with five catches for 80 yards and four touchdowns, building his total to 28 grabs for 366 yards and ten scores. He'll grow into more and more of a safety valve for Sam Bradford, and after last week, will draw more attention away from the other playmakers.
What will happen: Oklahoma isn't just going for wins, it's going for style points. In a beauty contest with LSU and Oregon, the Sooners will put up a big number on the board to prove that as a national title contender, it's locked in and can blast a bad team like Baylor. 
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 50 ... Baylor 14  ... Line: Oklahoma -38
Must See Rating: (5
Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 1.5

Big 12 Week 11 Predictions, Part 1