SEC
East
Florida
| Georgia
| Kentucky
| South Carolina
| Tennessee
| Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
| Arkansas
| Auburn
| LSU |
Ole Miss
| Miss State
SEC Fearless Predictions
Sept. 1 | Sept.
8 |
Sept. 15 | Sept.
22 |
Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct.
13 |
Oct. 20 | Oct.
27 |
Nov. 3 | Nov.
10 |
Nov.
24 | Dec.
1
How are the picks so far? SU: 65-17 ... ATS:
43-27-2
SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
12,
Part 1
|
SEC Saturday,
November 17th |
UL Monroe (4-6) at Alabama (6-4)
2:00
PM
Why to watch: Late last
year, Kentucky had an apparent
walk-in-the-park non-conference game
against UL Monroe to get past before
dealing with a big game against
Tennessee the following week. The
Wildcats, who were looking ahead, needed
everything in the bag, and a late stand
on a two-point conversion, to get by the
Warhawks 42-40. Alabama is coming off a
brutal two-game losing streak with the
emotional war against LSU followed up by
the tough road loss Mississippi State,
and while the Tide might need a win to
get back on the winning track, there's
no way, no how it's not looking ahead to
the road trip to Auburn next week.
Why
UL Monroe
might win: The Warhawks will get
their rushing yards. Helped by QB
Kinsmon Lancaster, the ULM running game
is dangerous, and annoying. It's not the
Illinois spread attack, but if
everything is working, it can be just as
effective with Lancaster and RB Calvin
Dawson forming a deadly 1-2 punch, with
Frank Goodin a solid third runner in the
rotation. Bama's defense hasn't faced
anything like this offense.
Why Alabama might win: ULM makes
mistakes; Alabama, outside of a killer
pick-six against the Bulldogs last week,
doesn't. For the Warhawks to win,
they'll need a ton of Alabama turnovers
and must capitalize on all of them.
Getting the takeaways in the first place
will be a problem considering the Tide
is 15th in the nation in turnover margin
and has only lost the ball 13 times. The
ULM defense will have its hands full
trying to handle an Alabama passing game
that should be able to crank out yards
without much of a problem. QB John
Parker Wilson, who had a lousy game
against MSU, will have all the time he
needs to bounce back.
Who to watch:
Alabama doesn't turn the ball over
often, but Wilson's mistakes have been
killers. Not only was his 100-yard pick
six last week a game-changer, he also
lost a key fumble against LSU. He lit up
Tennessee like a Christmas tree three
weeks ago, and has to find his mojo
again or all the talk before the Auburn
showdown will be about how he'll need to
produce. As if there won't be enough
pressure on him already. ULM's key
player could turn out to be punter Scott
Love. The Sun Belt's leader in punting
average needs to keep the Tide offense
pinned deep and force several long
drives. This isn't a consistent enough
Bama offense to go 80 yards time after
time for scores.
What will happen: Bama
will win thanks to a good day from
Wilson and the passing game, but it'll
know it's been in a fight. The ULM
running game will get just enough yards
to keep this interesting throughout.
CFN Prediction: Alabama
34 ... UL Monroe
17
...
Line: Alabama -24
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 1.5
Mississippi State (6-4) at Arkansas (6-4)
2:00
PM
Why to watch: Both teams
might be bowl eligible, but this could
be a bowl elimination game. With ten SEC
bowl eligible teams, and possibly an
11th on the way if Vanderbilt wins one
of its final two games, and not enough
open slots, neither team can afford a
loss. Yes, both teams need this game,
but with a trip LSU to close out the
year, Arkansas needs it more than MSU,
especially coming off a clunker of a
performance against Tennessee. The
nation's second best running attack was
held in check in the 34-13 loss to the
Vols, and now it has to face a fired up
MSU team on a two-game winning streak
and with a layup of an Egg Bowl against
Ole Miss to close things out. The
Bulldogs have won their last eight games
against the Hogs, with the last win
coming in 1998.
Why Mississippi
State
might win: The MSU defense is just
athletic enough to keep Darren McFadden
from breaking off too many big runs (but
that doesn't mean it'll stop No. 5
cold). It had major problems against
West Virginia's running game three weeks
ago, but that was mostly because Pat
White helped make things difficult;
there aren't any worries about Casey
Dick taking off for any big gains. The
secondary can handle itself, so the MSU
linebackers should be able to fully
concentrate on dealing with the Arkansas
backfield that will be all McFadden all
the time with running mate Felix Jones
likely out with a thigh injury.
Why Arkansas might win: It's not
like MSU's offense is lighting anyone
up. The defense saved the day against
Alabama last week, while the 31-point
explosion against Kentucky was an
aberration. Hardly a team built for
comebacks, the Bulldogs will be in huge
trouble if the Hogs get up early. The
Arkansas defense has struggled the last
two weeks, but that was against the
pass. There's no reason to worry much
about that against MSU, who with the
SEC's worst air attack, will likely try
to run even more than Arkansas.
Who to watch:
With Jones hurting for the Hogs, 5-7,
175-pound sophomore Michael Smith could
start to play even more of a role as
McFadden's running mate. The
ultra-quick, ultra-talented scatback has
been productive in a limited role
averaging 7.8 yards per carry with three
touchdowns. He'll need to get at least
ten carries to keep McFadden fresh,
while giving SEC fans a glimpse of what
next year's Arkansas running game will
look like.
What will happen: Get
there late and you might miss it. It's
not exactly going to be Hawaii vs. Texas
Tech with the two teams certain to run
the ball over and over again. Arkansas
runs better than MSU does.
CFN Prediction:
Arkansas 24 ...
Mississippi State
13
...
Line: Arkansas -10
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 3
LSU (9-1) at Ole Miss (3-7)
3:30
PM
CBS
Why to watch: It's the best
vs. the worst, the top vs. the bottom as
LSU, the West champion and national
title contender, goes on the road
against an Ole Miss team desperate for a
signature win. While the Rebels are
hoping to close out the season with a
flurry, the nation's No. 1 team could
use a few style points, even though it
controls its own destiny for the
national title. A close win this week
would give the Oregon supporters some
ammo in the BCS debate. Ole Miss has had
its moments at home, playing Missouri
relatively tough, giving Florida a hard
time in a six-point loss, and almost
coming up with a late rally to beat
Alabama. Of course, those were all
losses, and no one's been better at
pulling off close, tight battles in big
games than LSU. While the Tigers have
won five straight in the series, only
one was a blowout with the other four
decided by a total of ten points.
Why
LSU
might win: The formula for the
Tigers should be simple. Run the ball,
don't turn the ball over, win the tenth
game and go home and prepare for
Arkansas. The Rebel run defense has been
gashed over the last three weeks, blown
through by Arkansas and rumbled over by
Auburn before struggling with everything
Northwestern State wanted to do two
weeks ago. LSU's offensive line should
be able to manhandle the Ole Miss
defensive front and get Jacob Hester
rolling early. His battering ram style
should control the game from the start.
The Rebels need to win the turnover
battle to win, and that's not likely to
happen considering the Tigers are stingy
with the ball.
Why Ole Miss might win: This is
the 2007 season where anything and
everything has happened. Given the
contact of the entire year so far, would
an Ole Miss upset really be that
shocking? The Rebels have had two weeks
off to rest up and prepare for a chance
to shine on the CBS national showcase.
LSU's offensive line has been incredible
this year running the ball, but it's
been average in pass protection. It just
so happens that this is the week the
Rebels' burgeoning star pass rusher,
Greg Hardy, is coming back from a
two-game suspension for violating team
rules. The one thing that can make this
a battle is if Ole Miss is getting into
the backfield and stopping drives, so if
Hardy can shake the rust off early and
can get to Matt Flynn, the early
momentum will be on the blue side of the
field.
Who to watch: LSU will
try to run the ball from the start and
power its way to a win, but at some
point it'll want to try to throw the
knockout punch. Early Doucet returned
from being banged up for five games and
has been fine, especially with a
game-sealing play to finish off Alabama,
but he hasn't blown up yet. Considered
to be one of the top receiver prospects
for next year's draft, now he has to
play like it needing a "wow" game with a
couple of big home runs. With a
touchdown catch in each of the last two
games against Ole Miss, this could be
the time he shows why the scouts are
drooling.
What will happen: The
home crowd, the atmosphere and the
moment will keep Ole Miss in the game
for a while, and then LSU will turn on
the intensity just long enough to put it
out of reach. It'll take two drives in
the second half to do it before the
Tigers coast in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: LSU 34
... Ole Miss
20
...
Line: LSU -18
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ...2.5
SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
12,
Part 1