This isn't a great weekend of football, either in the Pac-10 or around the country. This would definitely be a good time to catch up on housework, family obligations or anything else that you've been putting off the last few Saturdays.
Oregon (-10.5) @ Arizona
(preseason pick: Arizona)
In this Thursday night showdown, Oregon takes their BCS championship hopes into a hostile environment in Tucson, against an Arizona team that is finally showing signs of life. Suddenly, it's become trendy to think that the Wildcats are capable of winning this game (the line has steadily been moving down all week long, and it seems like every person making a pick has this game close), now that they're on a two-game winning streak and the Ducks have been far from dominant their past three games.
The Wildcat offense is finally getting untracked, with the passing game being key in their past two wins. And the defense, which has massively underachieved all year, is at least getting a bit better. If they've found a way to improve over the bye, they'll be an even better team when they take the field against Oregon.
On the Other Hand:
Oregon is a huge, huge, HUGE upgrade over the last two teams Arizona has played. The Wildcats got shredded by Washington, and now they'll face an offense that is better in pretty much all aspects, and that is significantly less turnover-prone. And Oregon's pass defense is an upgrade over both UCLA and Washington, which means those gaudy stats might not happen this time around.
Also, those two teams the Ducks have looked "beatable" against are a lot better than Arizona. And while it's true that they'll likely be a bit less good away from Autzen, there's been little evidence so far this year that the Ducks' level of play drops off significantly away from home, which means that another edge the Cats enjoyed in their last win probably won't be there this time around.
Bottom Line:
This is a national spotlight game, and Oregon has everything in the world to play for. The Wildcats won't catch the Ducks napping, and they're not good enough to win otherwise without a bunch of turnovers, which seems pretty unlikely.
Oregon 38, @ Arizona 17
Oregon St @ Washington St (-3)
(preseason pick: Wash St)
This is a game between one team at home, with a senior quarterback, in desperate need of a win against another team who has played better but is already assured of a mid-level bowl game and doesn't have much to play for. In other words, the intangibles favor the Cougars in a major way.
Moreover, Oregon State's defense, while good, hasn't been spectacular against the pass, except for registering a bunch of sacks. But against a veteran QB like Brink, that's not going to work as well, which means that the Beaver secondary is likely to be exposed yet again. With a good receiver corps, the Cougars ought to be able to move the ball very well through the air all game long, and that makes them very dangerous in this game.
On the Other Hand:
When the Beavers have the ball, they're going to run it over, around and through a Cougar defense that makes the most pedestrian runners look like Heisman candidates. And in a game that will likely be cold, that's a pretty big edge to have.
Bottom Line:
When in doubt, the motivation factor is the tiebreaker. Either team could win, but I'll take a slightly worse team that is fired up at home over a slightly better team with basically nothing to play for any day of the week.
@ Washington St 28, Oregon St 24
Cal (-7) @ Washington
(preseason pick: Cal)
This game sure looks like the dud of the week. On the one hand you have Cal, who has talent but hasn't been remotely consistent, and on the other you have Washington, who isn't that bad but now has to deal with having been knocked out of bowl contention. Can the Bears re-boot their season, and can the Huskies still bring the energy now that they're just playing for pride?
Bottom Line:
It's tough to get a read on this game, but I lean towards Cal because Locker isn't healthy and the Husky secondary isn't good enough to slow down Cal's great receivers.
Cal 34, @ Washington 23
National Games of the Week:
Ohio St (-4) @ Michigan
Michigan is at home, and has everything to play for. But Ohio St is still the better team. My guess is it's close but the Buckeyes win it in the end.
Ohio St 28, @ Michigan 27
West Virginia (-6) @ Cincinnati
I'm really torn on this one. Cincy is extremely underrated, and is a very good team that is fully capable of winning this game. That said, West Virginia is just too good. They had their near-miss against Louisville, and I don't think they're in for a repeat performance.
West Virginia 31, @ Cincy 21
Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Texas Tech
I'm not in love with either team, but Oklahoma is at least pretty hot right now. Tech is just too inconsistent to expect very much.
Oklahoma 38, @ Texas Tech 24
Bad Lines
Miss St +11
I have to ask, is Arkansas even better than the Bulldogs? I know they have their great running backs, but if you look at overall performance, it's really hard to make a convincing case that they're appreciably better, which makes a double-digit line flat-out ridiculous.
Duke +6.5
Both teams stink, but the difference here is that Duke will be fired up to actually win a game at South Bend.
Northern Illinois +16.5
A few too many points. NIU is bad but not disgraceful, and Navy is hardly a juggernaut.
Miami +17
I know the Canes have struggled a bit, but this is a monumental overreaction to their getting murdered last week by UVA.
UNLV +18
TCU doesn't blow teams out, and UNLV rarely gets blown out. WAY too many points here.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com