This is a pretty good few days of football, spread out all through Thanksgiving weekend. And with the chaos continuing throughout college football, you have to keep paying attention, because you never know who's going to be next.
Please note that since this was posted Friday night, there will be no picks for any of the national games that took place on Friday (the USC-ASU pick had been posted on the CFN forum before the game, and at any rate it turned out wrong).
Oregon (-1) @ UCLA
(preseason pick: UCLA)
Strangely enough, this is a game between two teams desperately searching for a win. UCLA has been a huge disapointment this season, and needs to find a win in order to go bowling, and that's not an easy task going up against Oregon and USC in their last two games. Last year, they had a similar situation, sitting at 5-5 with a raod game at ASU and a home game against USC to finish things up. They've overcome this obstacle before, but can they do it again?
If their defense has anything to say about it, the answer should be yes. The Bruin D has been consistently good, and has had a major tendency to step it up for big games. And this is most certainly a very big game. Also, on offense it seems likely that they'll get running back Markey and quarterback Olson back, which ought to make things a lot better for them. They have the weapons to be a very dangerous team, which is very important against a reeling team like Oregon.
On the Other Hand:
Oregon is just as desperate here. Crazily enough, after LSU's loss they might actually find a way to sneak into the national title game if things break right for them (although it's unlikely). More importantly, they are still in the driver's seat for a Rose Bowl berth, which means they have a tremendous amount at stake here, so you can definitely expect them to be very fire up.
Oregon's defense isn't fantastic, but it's still pretty good. They match up well against a UCLA offense that really hasn't done all that much the past few weeks. And when they have the ball, they won't have Dixon, but they still have a good O-line and a fantastic running back in Stewart. With over a week to prepare, they'll pound Stewart and not put too much of the game in Leaf's hands, which means that they'll have an easier tim avoiding bad turnovers. And they still have enough talent that without giving up turnovers, they really ought to win this game.
Bottom Line:
With his back against the wall yet again, you can't count out Karl Dorrell and a still-talented UCLA team, especially at home. However, Oregon is the better team, and unless something else weird happens to them, they ought to win this game.
Oregon 38, @ Arizona 17
USC (-3.5) @ Arizona St
(preseason pick: USC)
This should be a really good game between two very good teams. USC comes in with a great defense, and continues to get healthier every week on offense, which makes them a very dangerous team to play. They've struggled at times, but they are still very, very good.
On the Other Hand:
It really seems like ASU just can't get any respect. The Sun Devils have played very well throughout the year, have overcome virtually all of their obstacles, are at home, and yet are an underdog. Yes, USC has a lot of talent, but so do the Sun Devils. Pete Caroll is an excellent coach, but so is Dennis Erickson. Overall, this is a pretty even match, so don't you have to go with the home team?
Bottom Line:
USC just doesn't seem like USC this year. They're still good, but they're no longer the juggernaut that you can always count on to win the big game. This time, just like against Oregon, it'll be the other good team who comes away happy.
@ Arizona St 24, USC 21
Washington St @ Washington (-6)
(preseason pick: Washington)
It's the Apple Cup, and you know what that means. Another year, another Husky win. The Huskies win this game every year except when they're truly awful (2004 & 2005), and even then they've scraped and clawed and made it a tough win for the Cougars. So with a team that looks to be appreciably better, and home-field, why should anyone expect this game to be close?
On the Other Hand:
This game is ALWAYS close. It's rarely more than a touchdown margin, and sometimes it goes to overtime to boot. And the Cougars still have a great senior quarterback in Brink who is playing his final college game, so you know the he's going to leave it all on the field.
Bottom Line:
Washington is better, and they're at home. But the Cougars will give them all they can handle, and it's going to go down to the wire. U-Dub will win, like the always do... barely.
@ Washington 28, Washington St 24
Notre Dame @ Stanford (-5)
It's tough to come up with much of a comment on this game. Both teams are lousy, both haven't played well the last few weeks, and both could use a win to feel better about the season. Stanford has an edge because they're at home and they're off of a bye week, but Notre Dame has an edge because they at least just had a win. It's anyone's game, and with two teams as inconsistent as this it's impossible to pick it. Either team could blow the other out, or it could go down to the wire. I'll do the wussy pick and predict a close win for the favorite.
@ Stanford 34, Notre Dame 31
National Games of the Week:
UConn @ West Virginia (-18.5)
West Virginia is much, much better. But that's still a lot of points.
@ West Virginia 38, UConn 21
Tennessee @ Kentucky (-2.5)
This is a tough game to pick. Both teams are good, neither has been consistent. Still, I think the Vols are a bit better, and even on the road I think they have the edge.
Tennessee 24, @ Kentucky 23
Georgia (-3.5) @ Georgia Tech
Georgia is highly ranked, Georgia is hot, Georgia looks like they should roll. But Georgia hasn't been good on the road, and Tech is still a good team. And with crazy things happening every week, you almost have to expect the upset.
@ Georgia Tech 21, Georgia 17
Virginia Tech (-3.5) @ Virginia
Call me crazy, but I like Virginia here. The Cavs haven't been consistent, and they've struggled a lot on the road, but they're a great home team, they'll be fired up for the rivalry, and they're off a bye. That should help them here.
@ Virginia Tech 17, Virginia 13
Bad Lines
Florida St +14
That's a heck of a lot of points when the Seminoles are still a pretty good team. Florida is better, but definitely not two touchdowns better.
Miami +14.5
Miami has really, really been struggling. But BC hasn't been great shakes of late either. They should win, but the line just feels a bit high.
Clemson -3
You never know when Clemson is going to crash and burn, but they're still playing a lot better than Carolina right now.
USF -8.5
Other than that win against Cincy, there just hasn't been much to suggest Pitt is good. USF shouldn't have much trouble here.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
