Instant Analysis: Oregon-UCLA

Turnover ratio is hardly an underrated statistical category in the world of football, but what’s truly underappreciated in this sport is the location of a team’s turnovers. On a day when Oregon and UCLA both played the fourth-string quarterbacks on their rosters, the timing of turnovers—rather than the turnovers themselves—enabled the USC Trojans to attain first place in the Pac-10 Conference.

The location of turnovers made all the difference in the world on an afternoon in Pasadena when neither team could eclipse 220 yards of total offense. With Oregon’s Brady Leaf banged up and ineffective, the Ducks trotted out third-string signal caller Cody Kempt and then fourth man Justin Roper in a futile attempt to produce any semblance of an offensive attack. UCLA—reduced to desperation a few weeks ago because of attrition at quarterback—once again sent out Osaar Rasshan, number four on the depth chart, to try and move the Bruins. In a year when numerous Pac-10 quarterbacks have been sidelined with injuries, Saturday’s contest at the Rose Bowl featured the ultimate MASH unit matchup in the conference. Given the absence of quality quarterbacking on both sides, big mistakes were much more likely to decide this game than any big plays. Sure enough, futility filled the field for both ballclubs, but in the end, UCLA got the turnovers that mattered.

While the Bruins turned the ball over twice in Oregon territory, the Ducks coughed up the pill three times on their own side of the field. Turnovers committed at Oregon’s 32, 28 and 17 yard lines were followed by three inept and ineffective UCLA possessions. But since the Bruins were already in scoring range, the home team walked away with three points in each instance, thanks to the heroics of game MVP Kai Forbath, UCLA’s placekicker. On a day when both offenses were mired in quicksand, UCLA’s 9-0 lead—forged late in the third quarter—seemed like a 35-point lead to most other college football teams. After a punt return gave UCLA another drive start at the Oregon 31, the Bruins actually managed to piece together a few positive plays for a game-sealing touchdown. In the greatest of ironies, the foremost rival of the USC Trojans—on the field where Pete Carroll’s team hopes to play on New Year’s Day of 2008—enabled their crosstown enemy to take ownership of the Pac-10 lead.

Next week, UCLA will have a chance to take the Pac-10 title away from USC and hand it to Arizona State. But on this late-season Saturday, Karl Dorrell’s defense dashed the Ducks’ dreams of a return trip to Pasadena. It’s just the latest unbelievable scenario to emerge from an up-and-down year of football in the city of Los Angeles, a place known for writing hard-to-believe scripts.