This should be a good weekend to finish off the regular season. Oklahoma - Missouri will be huge, but there will be some other good games too. Don't be surprised if somewhere around the country, there is one more big upset before it's all said and done.
UCLA @ USC (-19.5)
(preseason pick: USC)
Once again, USC comes into this game with a lot on the line, and once again, a 6-5 UCLA team comes off of an important win looking to spoil things for the Trojans. Last year, the Bruins were able to pull the shocker, and they hope to do so once again.
One big thing going for them is, as always, their defense. It hasn't always been great, but when it's on, it's a very tough unit to beat. And against a USC team that has had a lot of trouble scoring with consistency, a good defensive performance would actually give them a reasonable chance at the upset.
On the Other Hand:
UCLA's offense just isn't any good. Yeah, Olson is healthier, and maybe Cowan will be back, but this unit has done squat most of the year and against an outstanding USC defense, there's little reason to believe that things are suddenly going to get much better for them. And if they get into the habit of turning the ball over, things could get really ugly really quickly.
Bottom Line:
Since neither team has been particularly consistent, you can't discount the chance of an upset. That said, it really seems like a reach in this case. The Trojans shouldn't have enough on offense to make the score a blowout, but the Bruins don't have enough offense to make it a game. They'll get a score at some point, and that'll be just enough for the cover, but that's going to be it.
@ USC 24, UCLA 7
Oregon St @ Oregon (pick)
(preseason pick: Oregon)
In an unusual Civil War twist, this year the game looks to be pretty competitive going in, as opposed to the usual beatings administered by whoever is at home. But rather than just being competitive, can the visiting Beavers finally end the streak and come away with a win?
Certainly, it's possible. Oregon State has been on fire lately, winning comfortably against both Washington schools, and has an extra week off to prepare for this game. The Beaver defense has been fantastic, which is really bad news against the Ducks, who are going to have to rely on Jonathan Stewart against a unit that has been consistently strong against the run.
On the Other Hand:
The probable loss of Yvenson Bernard figures to be very important in this game. With him, the Beavers have a balanced attack that can beat you through the air or on the ground. Without him, they're going to be more reliant on the pass, and that's not good against Oregon's defense, a very good unit that can punish other teams' weaknesses.
Bottom Line:
It looks like it's going to be a defensive struggle, with turnovers likely to be the difference, one way or the other. The Beavers have gotten good quarterback play of late, and the Ducks anything but, so it really seems like Oregon St has the edge. However, home-team dominance has lasted as long as it has for a reason. For both teams, the home crowds are at their loudest in this game, and once again they will find a way to carry their team to victory.
@ Oregon 13, Oregon St 10
Arizona @ Arizona St (-7)
(preseason pick: ASU)
Wow, this line sure seems low at first glance. On the one hand, you have a really good team in ASU, who is at home and playing for a BCS berth, probably either the Sugar or the Fiesta. And on the other, you have Arizona, who is stuck at 5-6, hasn't been remotely consistent, and needs to pull of the big upset just to make a bowl game.
On the Other Hand:
Even more than a lot of other rivalries, weird things perpetually seem to happen here. "Worst team wins" is a rule cited by many fans, and for good reason. On paper it seems like a big mismatch, but all U of A needs is a few breaks, and they have a real shot of winning this game.
And that's exactly what's been happening for the Wildcats of late. Teams have made bad turnovers and penalties, key stars have gotten hurt, and the Wildcats have made a habit of making the unbelievable happen. The way things are going for them, can you really ignore their chances in this game?
Bottom Line:
The Wildcats have been very lucky lately, but their luck runs out here. ASU has better talent, better coaching, and is just as motivated. They'll come out on fire and won't let up until it's all over.
@ Arizona St 35, Arizona 14
Cal (-14) @ Stanford
(preseason pick: Cal)
This is a weird game to try and pick. The easy, and probably obvious move, is simply to take Cal and figure they'll win with ease. While Cal has struggled at times, this is still the same team that beat Tennessee, that was at Autzen back when Oregon was awesome, and that gave USC a pretty good game. And Stanford certainly hasn't been good, especially during their latest losing streak, lowlighted by a horribly ugly loss to Notre Dame.
On the Other Hand:
Cal has shown flashes of greatness but has generally been mediocre at best. Remember, this is the same team that just lost at Washington, lost at UCLA, blew a big lead at Arizona State, barely won at Colorado State, and has generally been lousy on the road. And with Longshore really struggling, the Bears haven't been able to score enough to make up for a lousy defense.
Bottom Line:
Cal is clearly better, but neither of these teams has been consistent, good or bad, which makes the upset possible. Cal should find a way to win, but expect this one to be close for a while.
Cal 31, @ Stanford 21
Washington @ Hawaii (-14)
Washington won't be able to stop, or likely even slow down, Hawaii's passing game, while the Warriors are going to have a lot of trouble with Locker and Rankin. In other words, take the over.
@ Hawaii 45, Washington 35
National Games of the Week:
BC vs Virginia Tech (-4.5)
Virginia Tech is incredibly hot right now, and will certainly be looking for payback for BC's comeback win. The Hokies have a history of gagging in big games, but they'll start to change their rep with a bit win here.
Virginia Tech 28, BC 17
Tennessee vs LSU (-7.5)
Tennessee is good, but this line is just too small. LSU is a much better team, and with this game being the difference between a BCS game (and an outside shot at the national title) and a non-BCS game, don't expect the Tigers to let up.
LSU 31, Tennessee 17
Missouri vs Oklahoma (-3)
It seems weird for the consensus #1 team to be underdogs against anyone on a neutral field, but then again, it's been on heck of a weird season. Mizzou is good, but Oklahoma is better, and it'll show in this game.
Oklahoma 27, Missouri 21
Bad Lines
Nothing jumps out at me this week. Sorry.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com