The BCS
Situation
What the top ranked
teams need to have happen to play for the national title
By
Pete Fiutak
We're now down to the final hours, the final weekend,
and the final few games of what has turned out to be one of the wildest,
most thrilling, most wonderful college football seasons of all-time.
After all the wacky upsets and the all weekly turmoil, the issue still
hasn't been decided.
Two years ago it was almost a forgone conclusion that Texas and USC were
going to play in the Rose Bowl for the whole ball of wax. Those two
all-timers were on a collision course in a cut and dry season. Last
year, Ohio State had a spot in the national title game wrapped up by
mid-November, while Florida needed a win over Arkansas in the SEC
Championship and a UCLA upset over USC to get in.
This season, it's simple: If Missouri beats Oklahoma in the Big 12
Championship, and West Virginia beat Pitt, it'll be the Tigers vs. the
Mountaineers in New Orleans on January 7th. If one of those two loses,
Ohio State will almost certainly step in and take over one of the spots.
But what about everyone else within range of the top two? What needs to
happen this weekend to get in? Here's a best guess scenario for each of
the teams with a realistic dream of playing for the national title.
BCS No. 1 - Missouri
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Beat
Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Win on Saturday night and play
for the national title.
If Everything Goes Wrong: The Tigers will likely go to the Orange
Bowl, or will get an other at-large BCS bid, if they lose to the Sooners.
BCS No. 2 - West Virginia
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Beat Pitt.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Win on Saturday afternoon and
play for the national title.
If Everything Goes Wrong: The Mountaineers lose to Pitt and end
up going to the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl.
BCS No. 3 - Ohio State
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri
and/or West Virginia have to lose.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Both the Tigers and
Mountaineers lose and the Buckeyes are the nation's No. 1 team going
into the national championship.
If Everything Goes Wrong: The Tigers and Mountaineers both win
and the Buckeyes go to the Rose Bowl.
BCS No. 4 - Georgia
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri and
West Virginia have to lose. Virginia Tech likely has to lose to Boston
College in the ACC Championship and LSU will likely have to lose to
Tennessee in the SEC Championship.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Georgia slips into the
national title game when Missouri and West Virginia lose, Virginia Tech
looks lousy in the ACC Championship, win or lose, and LSU loses to
Tennessee.
If Everything Goes Wrong: Missouri and/or West Virginia wins and
Georgia gets an at-large BCS bid. Where this gets interesting is if the
Tigers and Mountaineers lose and Virginia Tech and LSU win in blowouts.
Can a team that didn't even win its own division play for the national
title? That would be the big debate.
BCS No. 5 - Kansas
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri and
West Virginia have to lose, there has to be a groundswell of
anti-Georgia sentiment.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Kansas slips into the national
title game when Missouri and West Virginia lose, Virginia Tech looks
lousy in the ACC Championship, win or lose, and LSU loses to Tennessee.
If that doesn't happen, then Missouri beats Oklahoma and Kansas gets an
at-large BCS bid, likely the Fiesta Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: Realistically, the worst case scenario
is Oklahoma beating Missouri and KU goes to the Cotton Bowl. As far as
the national title, KU is out if Missouri and/or West Virginia wins, LSU
and/or Virginia Tech wins easily, and people don't care about Georgia
not winning its division.
BCS No. 6 - Virginia Tech
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri and
West Virginia have to lose, there has to be a groundswell of
anti-Georgia sentiment, and Virginia Tech has to obliterate Boston
College by at least 21 points.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Virginia Tech beats Boston
College and plays in the Orange Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: Virginia Tech loses to Boston College,
Hawaii beats Washington, and the Hokies are out of a BCS at-large spot
and likely goes to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
BCS No. 7 - LSU
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri and
West Virginia have to lose, there has to be a groundswell of
anti-Georgia sentiment, and LSU has to obliterate Tennessee by at least
21 points. There has to be a groundswell of support arguing that both
Tiger losses came in triple overtime.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: LSU beats Tennessee and plays
in the Sugar Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: LSU loses to Tennessee, Georgia and the
Vols get the SEC's BCS bids, and LSU plays Michigan in the Capital One
Bowl.
BCS No. 8 - USC
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: Missouri and
West Virginia have to lose, there has to be a groundswell of
anti-Georgia sentiment, LSU and/or Virginia Tech have to look mediocre,
or loss, and USC has to annihilate UCLA and look like the team everyone
thought it'd be when it was the preseason No. 1.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: USC beats UCLA and plays
either Ohio State, Illinois or Georgia in the Rose Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: USC loses to UCLA, Arizona State beats
Arizona and the Sun Devils go to the Rose Bowl, the Big Ten gets a
second team (Illinois) in the BCS, the Pac 10 only gets one BCS spot and
the Trojans go to the Holiday Bowl. Or if Arizona beats Arizona State,
UCLA goes to the Rose Bowl, USC has a 50/50 shot at an at-large BCS bid
or the Holiday depending on what happens to Oklahoma, Boston College and
Tennessee.
BCS No. 9 - Oklahoma
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: The Sooners
have to crush Missouri by at least three touchdowns in a breathtaking
performance, West Virginia has to lose to Pitt, Virginia Tech has to
look average, win or lose, and most likely, LSU has to lose. Unlike USC
or LSU winning in a blowout, if the Sooners can crush Mizzou, they'll
likely blow past Georgia in the human polls because the win will be over
the No. 1 team.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Oklahoma beats Missouri and
plays either Arizona State or Kansas in the Fiesta Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: Oklahoma loses to Missouri and ends up
going to the Cotton Bowl.
Assuming No. 10 Florida, with three losses is out and No. 11 Boston
College is too far out to be in the national title picture ...
BCS No. 12 - Hawaii
What Needs To Happen To Play For The National Title: With
everyone watching in the last game of the regular season, Hawaii has to
blow out Washington with Colt Brennan playing so well that America wants
to see what he could do against one of the bigger name teams, Missouri
and West Virginia have to lose, with Oklahoma squeaking by in the win
over the Tigers, there has to be a groundswell of anti-Georgia
sentiment, Virginia Tech has to lose to Boston College, LSU has to lose
to Tennessee, and USC has to be merely average, win or lose, against
UCLA.
Most Realistic Best Case Scenario: Hawaii beats Washington and
plays LSU in the Sugar Bowl.
If Everything Goes Wrong: Hawaii loses to Washington, gets shut
out of the BCS, and stays home to play in the Hawaii Bowl.