LSU (11-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)
January 7th,
8:00 p.m. ET, Fox
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2008 BCS Championship History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
How much have things changed in just 364
days?
Last year, the world was buzzing about Boise State's all-timer of a
win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The NFL playoffs were about to
get in full swing, and the radio talk shows were buzzing on whether
or not Mark McGwire was going to get into the Hall of Fame. Oh yeah,
and there was that Ohio State coronation against Florida that got
put on the backburner thanks to the week long lag time between New
Year's Day and the title. Of course, Florida won in a rout, everyone
was stunned for about 24 hours, and the Big Ten hasn't been the same
since.
Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez were taken in the first round of the
2007 NFL draft. Troy Smith started a few games for the Baltimore
Ravens, while Chris Leak barely got acknowledged after being picked
up by the Chicago Bears. In all, eight Buckeyes were drafted, with
at least that many certain to be taken in 2008, while nine Gators
were drafted, with three taken in the seventh round, yet Ohio State
supposedly couldn't run, had no athleticism, and the Big Ten
couldn't play with the SEC. Of course, Wisconsin and Penn State each
won New Year's Day bowl games over SEC foes, but Ohio State's 41-14
embarrassment in Glendale (along with a 2-5 overall bowl record) set
the league back in the respect department.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
LSU |
Ohio
State |
|
Total Offense |
|
20th 448.15 ypg |
58th 397.08 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
3rd 283.85 ypg |
1st 225.25 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
12th 38.69 ppg |
36th 32 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
21st 19.62 ppg |
1st 10.67 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
11th 218.92 ypg |
31st 201.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
14th 103.08 ypg |
3rd 77.08 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
54th 229.23 ypg |
87th 195.83 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
9th 180.77 ypg |
1st 148.17 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
3rd 1.38 |
63rd -0.08 |
|
LSU
at Miss St
W 45-0
Va Tech
W 48-7
Middle Tenn
W 44-0
S Carolina
W 28-16
at Tulane
W 34-9
Florida
W 28-24
at Kent.
L 45-37 3OT
Auburn
W 30-24
at
Bama W 41-34
La Tech
W 58-10
at Ole Miss
W 41-24
Ark.
L 50-48 3OT
SEC Championship
Tennessee W 21-14 |
Ohio State
Y'stown St
W 38-6
Akron
W 20-2
at Wash
W 33-14
Nwestern
W 58-7
at Minn.
W 30-7
at
Purdue W 23-7
Kent State
W 48-3
Mich St
W 24-17
at Penn St W 37-17
Wisconsin
W 38-17
Illinois
L 28-21
at
Michigan W 14-3 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
LSU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
O |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
4 |
|
4 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
5 |
|
5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
5 |
Linebackers |
5 |
|
4.5 |
Secondary |
5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
Now the shoe is on
the other foot as LSU has all but been handed the crystal egg thing
while many believe Ohio State might as well go enjoy the French
Quarter. The New England Patriots, NFL playoff scenarios, and the
dopey Mitchell report are dominating the sports talk, while LSU vs.
Ohio State is just another game between big-name teams.
Don't be fooled.
The 2007 BCS Championship was an aberration; Ohio State wasn't that
bad, and Florida wasn't that good. Of course Florida deserved to win
that game, no question, but the Buckeyes had just as much talent,
just as much athleticism, and just as much speed. They were simply
outcoached and outplayed in every way. Don't expect Jim Tressel and
the OSU coaching staff to make the same mistakes twice, and there's
no way the team will come to New Orleans fat and happy like it did
before the Florida debacle. It still might not matter.
Overall, an argument could be made that Ohio State was the more
talented, better team than Florida last year (don't forget how many
close calls and how many struggles the Gators had during the
season), but the 2007 LSU team is better than this Buckeye squad.
Injuries, coaching, a Les Miles dance with Michigan, and
inconsistencies in key moments in big games on both sides of the
ball kept the ultra-talented LSU team from an unbeaten season, but
now all can be right with the Tiger world with a third straight bowl
win.
LSU hasn't just dominated in bowl games under Miles, it's been
downright scary-good beating Notre Dame (in the Sugar) and Miami (in
the Peach) by a combined score of 81 to 17. However, the team didn't
always play up to its skill throughout the year, most notably on
defense in the losses to Kentucky and Arkansas, and it wasn't its
dominating self from October on. Again, injuries played the main
role, and now the team is as healthy as it's been since
mid-September when it was 3-0 after blasting Mississippi State,
Virginia Tech, and Middle Tennessee by a combined score of 137-7. In
other words, this should be the LSU team everyone's been expecting
for a few months.
Ohio State was No. 1 in the nation for a good portion of the year,
mostly by default, and is the top-ranked team according to the BCS,
not LSU. While the Tigers lost to mediocre teams, with the defeat to
Arkansas coming at home with the national title on the line, at
least at the time, the Buckeyes lost their one game to an Illinois
team that went to the Rose Bowl. Granted, the Illini are in Pasadena
because of the victory in Columbus, but that was the only blip on
the Buckeye radar. No one else came all that close, including
Michigan State who came up with a few key turnovers to pull within
seven late.
Ohio State leads the nation in total defense and scoring defense. It
has the number one pass defense in the country. It has a motivated
team that's going to play with a mega-chip on its shoulder. Will it
all be enough to break an ugly eight-game losing streak to the SEC?
Forget about who you think the hot teams were at the end of the
season, these two deserve to be here. Ohio State is by far the best
of the one-loss lot, while LSU's two losses each came in triple
overtime. The SEC champion is being given the benefit of the doubt,
and rightly so, while the Big Ten champion comes in having won 30 of
its last 32 games and four of its last five bowl games including
three in the BCS.
This game will make up for last year's jaw-dropper, and while it
won't be Texas vs. USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, it should be a great
end to one of the wildest seasons ever.
Players to watch: LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey
was the best defensive player in America despite playing on one leg
and a bad back for half the year. With a banged up knee thanks to a
questionable chop block in the win over Auburn, he wasn't quite the
same force as the year rolled on. He gutted it out and produced, but
now he should be back to his old self, or should be closer than he
was over the final month of the season, with time off to rest and
heal up. While he doesn't have to get into the backfield on a
regular basis, he has to keep Ohio State rushing star Chris
"Beanie" Wells from getting anything up the middle while forcing
everything to the outside.
Wells had a good first half of the year, and then he exploded over
the final five games with 221 rushing yards against Michigan State,
169 yards and three scores against Wisconsin, and 222 yards and two
touchdowns against Michigan. He's not Darren McFadden and isn't
going to do to the LSU defense what the Hog superstar was able to,
but he needs be effective enough to keep the heat off QB Todd
Boeckman.
All Boeckman did was step in for a Heisman Trophy winning legend in
Troy Smith and lead the Big Ten in passing efficiency, while taking
the team back to the national championship game. He's not Smith when
it comes to running, but he's a better pro prospect and mobile
enough to buy himself a little bit of time against the LSU pass
rush. If he gets good protection, he has the deep arm to stretch the
field and keep the safeties back ... but that's a big if. Easier
said than done. He was terrific over the first half of the year, but
more and more the offense revolved around Wells once the heat of the
Big Ten play kicked in. There was a magnificent performance against
Penn State, and an efficient day against Wisconsin, but his three
interceptions proved to be a killer against Illinois, and he was
along for the ride in the win over Michigan. After throwing at least
two touchdown passes in each of his first ten games, he didn't throw
one in his last two and now will be tested over and over by an LSU
defense that'll go all out to stop the run first. He'll have his
chances to make big plays, but he'll have to prove he can make good
decisions against a team this fast.
LSU will go with a two-headed quarterback attack. Last year, Ohio
State had to deal with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. This year, it'll
have to prepare for the same situation, even if the overall styles
aren't even remotely similar. Senior Matt Flynn, like Leak,
is the heady, gutty leader who isn't afraid to take a shot, has
nerves of steel in crunch time (there wasn't a more clutch throw
this year than his 22-yard touchdown pass to beat Auburn), and is
the rock of the offense. But just as Tebow was the far
superior talent over Leak, sophomore Ryan Perrilloux is the
special prospect who could grow into a Heisman caliber superstar if
he gets his head screwed on straight. Big, mobile, and efficient
when he gets the chance (completing 20 of 25 passes for 298 yards
and three scores with an interception against Middle Tennessee, and
completing 20 of 30 passes for 242 yards and a touchdown with an
interception in the SEC Championship win over Tennessee), he'll
split time and give the Buckeyes a different look.
LSU
will win if... defensive coordinator Bo Pelini lets the dogs
out of their cages. The new Nebraska head man, and LSU defensive
coordinator for one more game, didn't turn his ultra-fast,
ultra-talented group loose often enough for some, and it proved
costly at times. Arkansas was able to run by the Tiger defense by
being the aggressor. Kentucky QB Andre Woodson wasn't touched nearly
enough in the 43-37 Wildcat win.
It's hard to argue with the overall results, LSU finished third in
the nation in defense and forced 33 turnovers, but with an NFL
defensive front and a world of speed in the back seven, Pelini has
to send everyone and Mike the Tiger at Boeckman, while not allowing
Wells to be able to work inside and cut outside. This is a great
Ohio State offensive line that thrives on wearing down teams as the
games go on, but LSU's D line isn't likely to wilt. If Michigan
State and Illinois can generate pressure, then LSU definitely should
be in Boeckman's face all game long.
Offensively, the line has to protect the quarterbacks. While there's
a slew of next-level potential on the Tiger offensive front, it was
way too inconsistent against anyone who tried to generate a pass
rush. Even Tulane was able to get into the backfield from the
inside. The Ohio State pass rush was non-existent against Florida
last season, while it didn't do nearly enough to get to Juice
Williams early on in the loss to the Illini. LSU has been able to
get by all year with power running, one big pass play at just the
right time, and more power running. As good as the Ohio State
secondary is, it'll have problems if the LSU quarterbacks are
getting a little bit of time and speedsters like Early Doucet get
time to run free, and it'll have even more problems if it has to try
to tackle bruising fullback Jacob Hester on a consistent basis.
Ohio State will win if... it survives a few haymakers.
Playing in what'll amount to a home game in the Superdome, LSU will
have the crowd and the momentum on its side from the opening snap.
Ohio State won't be able to come out running the ball effectively
until the overall adrenaline on both sides settles down, and it'll
have to be prepared for a few ugly early three and outs. Even if LSU
gets up to a quick lead, there can't be a "here we go again"
attitude creeping in. LSU isn't above going through some in-game
lapses in intensity, has made a habit out of committing a ton of
penalties, and had a nasty habit of playing down to its competition
for the last few months. Ohio State's offense will probably struggle
early since it's not going to go for anything too risky, but the
defense should be able to do its part and keep the LSU attack from
getting going.
Ohio State has the best linebacking corps LSU has faced all season
long, and that includes the tremendous Virginia Tech trio. James
Laurinaitis is a top 20 pick whenever he's ready to come out, and
Larry Grant and Marcus Freeman will almost certainly be NFL starters
next year. Sophomore corner Donald Washington will play after all
after being suspended thanks to the dreaded "violation of team
rules," and junior corner Malcolm Jenkins might be the best in
America. Throw pass rusher extraordinaire Vernon Gholston into the
mix, and OSU has every bit the talent, athleticism and skill on
defense that LSU boasts. What it doesn't have is Glenn Dorsey, but
the Buckeyes are good enough to mix it up on the inside once LSU
tries to get physical. The key will be to hang around. The pressure
is obviously on both teams, but LSU is supposed to win this; the
world is waiting for Ohio State to soil itself again in front of an
SEC team. LSU, now that it's healthy, might finally play up to its
talent level again, but the same goes for the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes
can play.
What will happen: Neither offense will look sharp thanks to
the next-level play of the defenses, so it'll likely be up to a key
mistake and/or a big kick return to turn the tide. That's where
Trindon Holliday comes in. The LSU return game has stunk all season
long, but Holliday will break one big run to set up the offense, the
defense will force Boeckman to turn it over at least twice, and
Early Doucet will hit one home run on a big third down play.
LSU will be in for a fight, but it'll finally be able
to get comfortable midway through the fourth quarter on a key
turnover to get the momentum its way.
Line: LSU -5 ... CFN Prediction: LSU 27 ...
Ohio State 20
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2008 BCS Championship History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More