Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Kansas (11-1)
January 3rd,
8:00 p.m. ET, Fox
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Talk about a lack of national love, Virginia Tech vs. Kansas appears
to be generating little more than a quiet yawn in a year of
potential snoozer BCS matchups. This deserves more attention since
it could be the only big money game that's any good.
While there was talk of Oklahoma possibly stepping in to face the
Hokies, and Missouri certainly deserved to be here over the Jayhawks
in what would've been a showdown to get the crowd moving, Kansas and
Virginia Tech should be able to put on a far better show than many
expect. After all, with a few bounces the right way, these two
could've been playing each other for the national championship.
Lost in the haze of the last few weeks of the regular season was
just how good these two teams really were. Kansas had a cup of
coffee at No. 2 and did a great job of overcoming a shaky first half
to battle Missouri until the end in the showdown for the Big 12
North title. Virginia Tech would've been probably been playing Ohio
State for the whole ball of wax if it weren't for Matt Ryan's
terrific late touchdown pass in the 14-10 loss to Boston College.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Kansas |
Virginia Tech |
|
Total Offense |
|
6th 491.08 ypg |
99th 332.38 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
14th 318.25 ypg |
5th 293.31 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
2nd 44.33 ppg |
50th 29.31 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
4th 16 ppg |
2nd 15.46 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
27th 196.58 ypg |
82nd 133.54 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
7th 91.42 ypg |
5th 86 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
14th 294.50 ypg |
86th 198.85 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
57th 226.83 ypg |
27th 207.31 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
1st 1.58 |
10th 1.00 |
|
Kansas
Central Mich
W 52-7
SE La
W 62-0
Toledo
W 45-13
FIU
W 55-3
at Kans St W 30-24
Baylor
W 58-10
at
Colorado W 19-14
at Tex A&M W 19-11
Nebraska W 76-39
at Okla St W 43-28
Iowa State
W 45-7
Missouri (in
KC) L 36-28 |
Virginia
Tech
East Carolina
W 17-7
at LSU L 48-7
Ohio
W 28-7
Will & Mary
W 44-3
No Carolina
W 17-10
at Clemson
W 41-23
at Duke
W 43-14
Boston Coll
L 14-10
at
Ga Tech W 27-3
Florida St
W 40-21
Miami
W 44-14
at Virginia
W 33-21
ACC Championship
Boston Coll W 30-16 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
KU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
VT |
|
4.5 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
The Hokies finished
the season No. 1 in the country, at least according to the BCS
computers, thanks to the third toughest schedule in America with
eight games (including two against BC) against bowl teams, and while
they were blasted 48-7 by LSU early in the year, this is a
night-and-day different squad than the one that took the field
against East Carolina on September 1st.
The offense went from one-dimensional and predictable to potent and
dangerous thanks to the two-headed quarterback attack of Sean
Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. Branden Ore hasn't had to carry as much of
the rushing workload thanks to the mobile Taylor, Glennon has
settled into a role as the veteran passer, the receiving corps is
starting to make more plays, and, of course, the Hokie defense is
still the Hokie defense.
Tech finished the season fifth in total defense and second in
scoring D, but it was the offense that made the team special scoring
30 points or more in six of the final eight games. One of the games
under 30 was the loss to BC in awful conditions, and the other was a
commanding 27-3 statement win over Georgia Tech in Atlanta. With all
the talk of Georgia and USC peaking at the end of the season,
Virginia Tech might actually be the nation's hottest team coming
into the bowls, but we've heard it all before.
All things considered, Tech has been a bowl dud ever since a coming
out party type of a victory over Texas in the 1995 Sugar Bowl. Since
then, the Hokies have gone just 4-7 with the only wins in decent
bowls coming over Louisville in the 2005 Gator and over Clemson in
the 2000 Gator. Last year, this was one of the nation's hottest
teams going into the bowls and it collapsed in the second half in a
31-24 Chick-fil-A Bowl loss to Georgia. It's not like Beamer's teams
haven't played well, but there just hasn't been a really big bowl
win in a while and is 0-2 in BCS games.
2004 Sugar vs. Auburn. 16-13 loss. 1999 Sugar vs. Florida State for
the national title. 46-29 loss. 1996 Orange vs. Nebraska. 41-21
loss. There's no question that Virginia Tech is an elite program and
this team is one of the best in the country, but only a win over
Kansas would get the respect due to the top teams, and the top
conferences this season. The ACC needs this win.
In what used to be the Big 8 champion's reward, this is now supposed
to be the ACC's showcase bowl game but it hasn't won it since the
league champion was automatically sent to Miami. The last ACC team
to win the Orange was Florida State in the 1996 win over Notre Dame
with the league going 0-for-5 since. Looking to keep the streak
alive, Kansas would like to go old school and bring an Orange Bowl
back to middle America.
Kansas went to the Orange Bowl in 1948 and 1969 and lost both, and
this is just the program's third bowl appearance since 1995. Last
year's Orange Bowl featured the season's most improbable story, Wake
Forest, and even though KU didn't win its conference, its season
also came from out of leftfield.
The schedule might not have been anything special, with the best win
coming over an average Oklahoma State team, but in this crazy season
of upsets, KU was jaw-dropping in its production averaging 44 points
per game, good for second in the nation, and was 14th in total
defense. The team did almost all the little things right (except for
the punting game), and was a machine when it had to answer every
challenge outside of the Missouri game. While the Jayhawks might not
deserve to be here over Missouri, they don't have to apologize to
anyone after finishing eighth in the final BCS rankings. Blame the
dumb system that doesn't allow more than two teams from a conference
to get in.
Chances are this will be one of the most competitive BCS games, even
if there aren't a slew of nationally recognizable players. Don't
worry about what the game could've been and you'll be fine.
Players to watch: You might have forgotten, but there was a
time when Kansas junior QB Todd Reesing was on the short list
for the Heisman. He's not big, doesn't have a huge arm, and he isn't
necessarily a runner, but he's a pure baller who finds ways to make
plays to get the job done. An accurate passer on the move, and tough
in the pocket, he'll have to avoid making big mistakes in the face
of the Virginia Tech pass rush, and he'll have to be very, very
careful on his short to midrange passes against the ultra-quick
Hokie linebackers. Against Missouri, he forced throws way too often
trying to make something happen that wasn't there, and then he
settled down and picked apart the Tiger defense in the second half.
He has to be flawless for the Jayhawks to win.
Virginia Tech's offense started to shine once star freshman Tyrod
Taylor started to get the hang of things. Sean Glennon
started the year with a 245-yard day in the win over East Carolina,
but struggled to move the offense over the next several games and
was benched bottoming out with a 2-of-10, 16-yard, one interception
day in the loss to LSU. With Taylor taking the pressure off, Glennon
appeared more relaxed, more comfortable, and more assured of his
passes as he grew into the role of co-quarterback. Taylor threw for
296 yards against Florida State, but his worth is as a runner who
keeps linebackers up close to the line. He has a nice passing touch
when he gets time and should grow into a top all-around player with
more and more playing time. Kansas has to prepare equally for both
of them.
Of course, Tech's defense gets the headlines and sets the tone for
the team led by linebackers Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi.
Hall is the star of the defense with 92 stops despite missing four
games with an injured wrist. While not asked to do much in pass
coverage, he's a beast against the run with seven double-digit
tackling games in the nine he played in including 11 in the ACC
championship win over Boston College. Adibi didn't necessarily pick
up the slack with Hall out, but he's been a steady, consistent
all-around force all year long. Tremendously quick, he can stay with
any tight end and is just as good dropping into pass coverage as he
is rushing the passer.
KU's defensive star is junior corner Aqib Talib, one of the
few bright spots on a woeful 2006 pass defense, and an All-America
caliber star who rarely got picked on this year. With excellent
athleticism and great size, he's in a salary drive as he auditions
for the NFL scouts. A premier coverman with 21 broken up passes over
the last two years and six interceptions, he also saw time as a
receiver with four touchdowns on eight catches. As the season went
on, he played exclusively on defense once the receiving corps
improved, but he could move over to offense again to add a bit of a
spark.
Kansas will win if... Reesing gets time. While the KU passer
has good mobility and has been decent under pressure, he hasn't
faced a team that can bring the heat like Virginia Tech. The Hokie
defensive front was able to get to Matt Ryan, and just about
everyone else, finishing with 43 sacks on the year and pressure
after pressure to force big mistakes including 21 interceptions.
Kansas is at its best when it gets into a rhythm on both sides of
the ball with a balanced offense and attacking defense that gets
into the backfield. Mostly, the offense has keep the chains moving,
can't expect to hit any home runs, and it has to be patient even if
things don't go well early. This is Virginia Tech. There's a good
chance it'll go into a second half lull if it gets comfortable.
The KU defense doesn't generate too many sacks, but it can get
consistent pressure and it great against the run. Texas A&M was held
to 74 rushing yards, Missouri only ran for 151, and Kansas State
gained just 53 while only Oklahoma State ran for more than one
touchdown. The Jayhawks will sell out against the run, for Tech to
win through the air, and hope Talib and the playmaking secondary can
get the job done.
Virginia Tech will win if... it can outKansas Kansas. KU
thrives on turnovers, ball control offense, and capitalizing on
every mistake. Sound familiar? The Virginia Tech defense is better
than the Kansas defense, and the offense can be just as strong as
KUs if the momentum is going the right way, but the Hokies need to
win the turnover battle, has to come up with the bigger plays on
special teams, and can't get down. KU is equipped to make a late
charge or a potentially big comeback with Reesing and its offense,
but Tech doesn't necessarily have the parts or the makeup to
overcome a big deficit.
Hall, Adibi and the Hokie linebackers have to keep Brandon
McAnderson and the KU running game from consistently breaking off
big runs, while the defensive line has win the battle in the
trenches and rush Reesing. Offensively, getting Branden Ore going is
a must to settle down the offense. The more Reesing is on the
sidelines, the better, and that comes from controlling the clock
with the running game and coming up with third down stops. Virginia
Tech is third in the nation in third down defense allowing teams to
convert just 28.6% of their chances.
What will happen: It's not always going to be the prettiest
of games with each defense coming up with its share of big stops
early while the offenses try to establish a running game. Kansas
will move the ball well only to see drive after drive stall, or end
up with a field goal instead of a touchdown. Virginia Tech isn't
going to force enough mistakes to make this a blowout of any sort,
and it'll have a few moments when it's stunned that KU can actually
play, but the D will tighten up in the second half while the offense
will come up with two key drives to finally pull away.
Line: Virginia Tech -3.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Virginia Tech 27 ... Kansas 16
2008 Orange Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More