Virginia (9-3) vs. Texas Tech
(8-4)
Jan. 1st,
1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
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2008 Gator Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
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|
National
Rankings |
|
Texas
Tech |
Virginia |
|
Total Offense |
|
2nd 537 ypg |
100th 329.17 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
50th 367.08 ypg |
17th 323.42 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
6th 41.75 ppg |
86th 24.08 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
51st 25.75 ppg |
13th 18.75 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
119th 61.42 ypg |
92nd 126.17 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
78th 171 ypg |
21st 113 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
1st 475.58 ypg |
80th 203 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
17th 196.08 ypg |
34th 210.42 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
93rd -0.50 |
40th 0.25 |
|
Texas Tech
at SMU
W 49-9
UTEP
W 45-31
at Rice
W 59-24
at Okla St L 49-45
NW State
W 75-7
Iowa State
W 42-17
Texas A&M
W 35-7
at
Missouri L 41-10
Colorado
L 31-26
at Baylor
W 38-7
at
Texas L 59-43
Oklahoma W 34-27 |
Virginia
at Wyoming
L 23-3
Duke
W 24-13
at N Car
W 22-20
Ga Tech W 28-23
Pitt W 44-14
at Mid Tenn
W 23-21
Connecticut
W 17-16
at
Maryland W 18-17
at
NC State L 29-24
W Forest
W 17-16
at
Miami W 48-0
Virginia Tech L 33-21 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
TT |
5
highest
1 lowest |
V |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
3 |
|
2 |
RBs |
4 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
2 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
In the glut of
New Year's Day games, with the Cotton (Arkansas vs. Missouri) and
Capital One (Florida vs. Michigan) bowls, each with more intriguing
matchups at the same time as the Gator, it's going to take something
special to get a little bit of early attention and make it stand out.
Texas Tech might provide it.
A fantastic bowl team under head coach Mike Leach, winning four of
the last five with the one blemish a tough 13-10 Cotton Bowl loss to
Alabama two years ago, and with last year's scintillating comeback
win over Minnesota in the Insight Bowl still being talked about by
Red Raider fans. Obviously, it's all about the high-octane offense,
ranked second in the nation and first in passing, that could make
this a must-see game, but it could also be the bowl's downfall if
Tech gets rolling.
Does Virginia have nearly enough offense to keep up if the Leach
attack gets up early? The Red Raiders average over 200 yards per
game more than the Cavaliers, but if this doesn't become a runaway
early on, the potential is there to be one of the day's top
nail-biters if history is any indication.
Virginia, who has won three of its last four bowl games with the one
loss an overtime choke to Fresno State in the 2004 MPC Computers
Bowl, played in seven games decided by five points or fewer, and it
has just enough defense, and plenty of time to prepare, to battle.
It's not like the Tech offense is unstoppable. Shut down cold by
Missouri, and slowed by Colorado, the potential is there for
Virginia to bring this to its level and battle for a fill sixty
minutes.
Virginia could have easily had a losing season, and been in search
for a new head coach, had a few big breaks go the other way, but the
team made its own luck with clutch play on both sides of the ball
game after game, turned the pressure up defensively whenever a big
sack was needed, and yeah, it came up with a little bit of offensive
explosion with 44 against Pitt and 48 against Miami. The overall
Virginia wins are better than they might appear, while the Texas
Tech stats might be a little skewed.
Oh sure, the Red Raider offense can be breathtaking, but it put up a
bulk of its numbers against dregs like Northwestern State, SMU, and
Rice. Of course, there was the 34-27 win over Oklahoma at the end of
the regular season to give the season and the offense some
legitimacy, but can it really be consistent? Virginia might have
just the right defensive mix to pull this off.
Yes, the game will be worth
giving a little bit of attention, but will it have enough to get you
to stay interested? The Gator Bowl has been among the
worst of the season over the last several years with just three of the
last 20 decided by a touchdown or less.
Recent history might not exactly be on
the side of this being a classic, even after last year's three point
West Virginia win over Georgia Tech, but there are plenty of big
names and plenty of talent for two teams still looking for a bigger
profile.
Players to watch: Hawaii's Colt Brennan became a Heisman
finalist partly because he led his team to a 12-0 season, albeit
against a lousy schedule, but mostly, he got to New York because of
his numbers. Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell was better, against
far, far better teams with 5,298 yards and 45 touchdown passes with
just 14 interceptions. Tough as nails with a good enough arm and
tremendous accuracy, it'll be his job to keep the mistakes to a
minimum and get the ball out of his hands in a hurry in the face of
a top pass rush. He threw four interceptions against both Missouri
and Colorado in losses, but he still put up big yards in both games
as he threw for over 400 yards in ten of the 12 games, threw for 338
yards before sitting early in the win over Northwestern State, and
threw for 397 yards in the loss to the Tigers. And then there was
the 646-yard, five-touchdown performance in the loss to Oklahoma
State. He'll get his yards, but can he handle being hit over and
over again?
Virginia DE Chris Long is already considered a near-certain
top ten pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, and he can up his up his stock
into guaranteed top three status with one more big performance. He
led the team with 14 sacks on the year, getting a sack in every game
but two, ironically the blowout wins over Pitt and Miami, while
making 75 tackles and 19 tackles for loss. The son of former NFL
superstar, Howie, has great size, and non-stop motor, and is a
tremendous finisher.
Offensively, Virginia has unearthed a new rushing star in sophomore
Mikell Simpson, who ran for 410 yards and seven touchdowns
over the final five games of the year, and has been a sensational
receivers with 38 catches on the year including 13 for 152 yards in
the win over Maryland. A quick speedster with great hands and a nose
for the goal line, the coaching staff will get the ball in his hands
at least 30 times in a variety of ways.
Texas Tech's most exciting playmaker is freshman Michael Crabtree,
who came up with a record-setting year with 125 grabs for 1,861
yards and 21 scores. While his scoring production slowed down after
finding the end zone 17 times in the first six games, he lit up
Texas and Oklahoma for 21 catches for 349 yards and three
touchdowns. The most talented receiver Mike Leach has brought in to
Lubbock, he's devastating in the open field and is great at fighting
for the ball around the goal line. There might not be a more
exciting play in college football right now than when he gets the
ball on the move.
Texas Tech
will win if...
it gets up early and makes Virginia
throw. Cavalier QB Jameel Sewell is a good talent with a knack for
making things happen, but he's not a bomber. The Cavaliers don't
make big plays with the passing game, rarely gets into a groove
throwing the ball, and might be looking over his shoulder at Peter
Lalich if the offense isn't keeping up the pace. Virginia has played
no one, no one, who can throw a forward pass, and its
secondary could be in for a very rude awakening.
Virginia will win if... get to Harrell, get to
Harrell, get to Harrell. Missouri sacked Harrell three times and hit
him over and over again. Colorado sacked Harrell three times and
pressured him into just enough misfires to pull off the win. With
Long, Virginia can get into the backfield on a regular basis, but
Leach and the coaching staff have had a few weeks to work on getting
the ball moving before Harrell gets whacked. That means the Cavalier
defensive back seven has to be sure in its tackling and has to
prevent yards after the catch. Offensively, the Cavs have to run the
ball effectively. The four Texas Tech losses this year came on the
four of the biggest running days allowed, with Oklahoma State
tearing off 366 yards, Missouri running for 212, Colorado running
for 217, and Texas running for 283. Only one win, over UTEP, came
when the opponent ran for more than 200 yards.
What will happen: Virginia just won't have the offense to
keep up. There will be long stretches when the Red Raider attack
sputters and coughs, but it'll also put too much pressure on a
relatively untested Cavalier secondary and will be too precise on
just enough drives to get out to a decent lead. There will be a few moments when the Cavs will
have a chance to change the momentum, and then Harrell will connect
on a big pass to keep it.
Line: Texas Tech -4.5 ... CFN Prediction: Texas
Tech 27 ... Virginia 20
2008 Gator Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
