Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3)
Jan. 1st,
1:00 p.m. ET, ABC
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2007 CFN Capital One Bowl Preview
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Prediction & Box Score
2008 Capital One Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
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|
National
Rankings |
|
Michigan |
Florida |
|
Total Offense |
|
74th 373.50 ypg |
13th 462 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
24th 330.42 ypg |
33rd 348.33 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
69th 26.08 ppg |
4th 43.08 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
24th 330.42 ppg |
40th 24.17 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
45th 166.08 ypg |
26th 197.67 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
56th 150.75 ypg |
10th 99.33 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
73rd 207.42 ypg |
33rd 264.33 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
7th 179.67 ypg |
86th 249 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
26th 0.50 |
47th 0.08 |
|
Michigan
App. State
L 34-32
Oregon
L 39-7
Notre Dame
W 38-0
Penn State
W 14-9
at NWest
W 28-16
E Michigan
W 33-22
Purdue
W 48-21
at Illinois
W 27-17
Minnesota
W 34-10
at Mich St
W 28-24
at
Wisc. L 37-21
Ohio State
L 14-3 |
Florida
WKU
W 49-3
Troy
W 59-31
Tennessee
W 59-20
at Ole Miss
W 30-24
Auburn
L 20-17
at LSU L 28-24
at
Kentucky W 45-37
vs. Georgia
L
42-30
Vanderbilt
W 49-22
at
S Car W 51-31
Fla
Atlantic
W 59-20
Florida St
W 45-12 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
M |
5
highest
1 lowest |
F |
|
4.5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
3 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
There are last hurrahs, and then there's
Michigan in the Capital One Bowl.
Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Jake Long, three of the greatest players
to ever suit up for the Wolverine offense, all came back to win a
national championship (which went bye-bye after gagging to
Appalachian State), beat Ohio State (0-4), and win a bowl game (0-3
so far), not necessarily in that order. Not only is this their last
chance to prevent their legacy from having a "yeah, but" permanently
attached to it, but it's also the last dance for the Lloyd Carr era
before Rich Rodriguez comes in and cleans the big house.
Wait, he already has.
The embers still haven't cooled from West Virginia's crash and burn
against Pitt, and Rodriguez has already sacked all but one of the
assistant coaches. All the assistants will be around for the bowl
game, and then it's the beginning of a new era, which can't come
soon enough for some Maize and Blue fans. This game will either be a
great last hurrah for a very proud, very unappreciated staff, or
it'll signify exactly why a major, sweeping change is needed to the
stodgy program.
Michigan stunk against the spread in losses to Appalachian State and
Oregon, but it stuffed Illinois 27-17. Now it has to face the
ultimate spread attack and a coaching staff that's among the best in
the game with time to prepare. Oh yeah, and there's a Heisman trophy
winner to deal with.
If it's possible, Tim Tebow hasn't just taken a back seat in the
storyline department, but he's not even in the car. All he did was
become the first sophomore to ever win the Heisman with an all-timer
of a season, but it's all about the Rodriguez situation, it's all
about the stars who haven't won anything truly big, and it's all
about the Big Ten looking for some semblance of pride.
Wisconsin beat Arkansas in last year's Capital One Bowl, and Penn
State beat Tennessee in last year's Outback, but it was the Florida
41-14 win over Ohio State that got the ball rolling on the
nationwide Big Ten bashfest. A win for the Wolverines would do
wonders for the conference, and it might be the last chance anyone
touches Florida for a few years with most of the young talent
maturing into a possible preseason No. 1 team in the country going
into next year. An impressive win would all but assure a top three
spot.
Florida might be the defending national champion, but it's hardly
flawless. There's little running game outside of Tebow, the
secondary can be beaten by anyone who throws with any consistency,
and when smashed in the mouth, the defensive front can be shoved
around. Yes, Michigan actually has the makeup to pull off what would
be considered a big upset ... except for Urban Meyer.
Meyer guided Utah to an undefeated season three years ago, complete
with a Fiesta Bowl win over Pitt, and won both his bowl games with
the Gators. He's a master of getting his teams ready after having
time to prepare. Over the last three years, if you include openers,
Meyer is 13-0 when having more than a week to prepare for a game.
He's turning into the ultimate big game coach, going against one
who's reputation is quickly diminishing by not being able to pull
off the really, really big win ever since taking home the 1997
national title. Can the Wolverines give the Big Ten its fourth
straight win in the Capital One? Carr is 3-1 in the game since 1999.
Enjoy the game and get a good look at old-time Michigan football.
The second the final gun sounds, the Leaders and Best will look
very, very different.
Players to watch: Michigan's signature stars, Mike Hart
and Chad Henne probably won't be 100%, but they'll be a
whole bunch better than they were at the end of the year when they
could barely play. Hart was suffering from an ankle injury suffered
against Purdue to derail a certain Heisman finalist campaign. He had
rushed for over 100 yards in each of the first seven games, gutted
it out for 115 yards against Michigan State after missing two games,
and wasn't right against Wisconsin or Ohio State. Now he should be
back to the same player, while Henne, who played at times through a
shoulder injury, was fine when he was able to patch himself together
and play. The three bowl losses haven't necessarily been his fault,
he never seemed to have a lot of time, as he threw nine touchdown
passes and just two picks.
Looking to pressure Henne all game long, and occasionally matched up
against Jake Long in a battle to get the NFL scouts on the
edge of their seats, will be Derrick Harvey, the Gators' best
pass rusher. However, he's had a disappointing year and hasn't
registered a sack in five games. He has all the tools to be a
next-level star, but he wasn't able to build on a huge sophomore
year once he became the focus of everyone's blocking scheme. Ohio
State's Vernon Gholston had a party in the Wolverine backfield and
was one of the main reasons Michigan's offense stunk. Harvey needs
to have a similar game.
Of course, Tim Tebow is the headliner with the pressure to to
come through and break a recent Heisman bowl curse (Matt Leinart
excluded). Over the injured thumb he played through late in the
year, and over a shoulder problem that didn't appear to be an issue
over the second half of the season, the scrutiny and the spotlight
will be even greater now that he's not just Tim Tebow; he's Heisman
winner Tim Tebow. He came through all year long despite being a
marked man, and now Michigan has had a month to figure out how to
contain him.
In charge of keeping Tebow from running wild will be Michigan's
unnoticed linebacking tandem of Shawn Crable and Chris
Graham, who combined for 167 tackles on the year. Graham is a
smallish speedster who's good at getting to the ball, while Crable
is something special packing a big wallop and with the athleticism
to get into the backfield on a regular basis. Crable led the Big
Ten, and was second in the nation with 26.5 tackles for loss to go
along with 7.5 sacks. If these two are making stops at the line,
things will be fine for the Wolverines. If they're making their
stops five-plus yards down the field, there will be major problems.
Florida
will win if...
it gets all the periphery
playmakers from running. Tebow will find a way to get his yards, but
Florida is at its deadliest when Percy Harvin, Kestahn Moore and
others are rolling. It's no coincidence that Florida's three losses
came on its three worst running games of the year, netting 111
against Auburn, 156 against LSU and 107 against Georgia. Michigan
has a reputation for not being able to stop the spread after getting
ripped apart by Appalachian State and Oregon, but it stuffed the
Illinois ground attack for just 137 yards with quarterbacks Juice
Williams and Eddie McGee combining for 29 yards. The Wolverines
never let the quarterbacks get to the outside, and it never led
Rashard Mendenhall, who ran for 85 yards, from blowing through for
any big gains. Michigan will be more than happy to let Tebow try to
power the ball time and again.
Michigan will win if... Hart and the ground game gets
rolling. Henne shouldn't have many problems against the mediocre
Gator secondary, as long as he has time, but the key will be to be
able to pound it early. Only two teams ran for more than 100 yards
on Florida, LSU and Georgia, while Auburn ran for 99 yards, the
third most allowed by the D. This is where Michigan has to play to
the stereotype of punishing Big Ten football as it needs to run the
ball consistently, stop the run, and use its good line to give Henne
time. Michigan has no problems with this getting into a shootout.
What will happen: Does Michigan actually have enough overall
athleticism to handle the Gator speed? Of course. Does that mean
it'll be able to come through with one of the biggest upsets of the
bowl season? Yes. Use the Illinois win as a blueprint. Michigan did
a great job of taking away the options for the quarterbacks and
forced the running backs to play it straight and without the
misdirection and cutbacks that kill undisciplined defenses. Urban
Meyer has had plenty of time to dissect the Michigan attack and come
up with a scheme similar to Ohio State's, but the pass rush will be
neutralized by Hart's running. This isn't last year's Florida
defense, and this isn't last year's Michigan. It won't be next
year's Michigan, either.
Line: Florida -10 ... CFN Prediction:
Michigan
23 ... Florida 20
2008 Capital One Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
