Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Dec. 31,
7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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The Don't-Call-It-The-Peach-Chick-fil-A
Bowl is always full of surprises, and not always for the positive
when it comes to interesting games.
The last semi-meaningful sporting even of the year has recently seen
a choke/collapse from Virginia Tech in last year's loss to Georgia,
an LSU 40-3 blasting of Miami, and only two games decided by seven
points or fewer in the last eight. It's also been a bowl of streaky
trends since 1993, when it became an ACC vs. SEC matchup, with the
ACC winning the first four, followed up with five in a row from the
SEC, four from the ACC, and now a two-game streak for the SEC. Is
Clemson the type of team that can buck the trend?
The program's last ten-win season came in 1990, and a win would end
that run. Once again, the Tigers flirted with being really, really
good, but a 20-17 home loss to Boston College late in the year ended
and ACC title dreams, and once again, the question of consistency in
the Tommy Bowden era has come up.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Auburn |
Clemson |
|
Total Offense |
|
101st 327.83 ypg |
47th 412.42 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
8th 298.33 ypg |
6th 297.08 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
82nd 24.33 ppg |
23rd 34.17 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
6th 16.67 ppg |
10th 18.33 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
56th 154.17 ypg |
50th 158.83 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
27th 119.33 ypg |
20th 112.33 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
107th 173.67 ypg |
41st 253.58 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
6th 179 ypg |
13th 184.75 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
47th 0.08 |
10th 1.00 |
|
Auburn
Kansas St
W 23-13
S Florida
L 26-24 OT
Miss St
L 19-14
NMSU
W 55-20
at
Florida W 20-17
Vanderbilt
W 35-7
at Arkansas
W 9-7
at LSU L 30-24
Ole Miss
W 17-3
Tenn Tech
W 35-3
at Georgia L 45-20
Alabama
W 17-10 |
Clemson
Florida St
W 24-18
UL Monroe
W 49-26
Furman
W 38-10
at NC State
W 42-20
at
Ga Tech L 13-3
Virginia Tech L 41-23
Central Mich
W 70-14
at
Maryland W 30-17
at Duke
W 47-10
W Forest
W 44-10
Boston Coll
L 20-17
at S Car W 23-21 |
|
Position Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
AU |
5 highest
1 lowest |
C |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
4.5 |
|
4 |
RBs |
5 |
|
2 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3 |
O Line |
3 |
|
4.5 |
D Line |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Linebackers |
2.5 |
|
5 |
Secondary |
5 |
|
4 |
Spec Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
Oh sure, on talent
and athleticism alone, the Tigers can blast away on a good team like
Wake Forest and stomp on a Maryland or Duke, but when it's time to
show some heart, especially in tough games against nasty defenses,
the team tend to go bye-bye.
Your 2007
Don't-Call-It-The-Peach-Chick-fil-A
Bowl is probably going to be a tough, defensive battle. At least
that's what Auburn would like.
Clemson is sixth in the nation in total defense, but it hasn't faced
a who's who of great offenses, while it's strong, balanced offensive
attack lost against three of the solid defenses it faced (Georgia
Tech, Virginia Tech and Boston College). Auburn has won four of its
last five bowl games and comes in with one of its best defenses in
the Tommy Tuberville era. Can Clemson handle it?
Just as big a question is whether or not Tommy's Tigers (the Auburn
version) has any offense to deal with a jacked up Clemson D.
Auburn's offense is downright painful to watch at times, with
mediocre receivers killing an already average passing game, and a
decent, but not special, offensive line having a hard time
consistently getting a push for the running game or protecting
Brandon Cox. These are hardly the days of Jason Campbell, Cadillac
Williams and Ronnie Brown, and to make matters more interesting,
offensive coordinator Al Borges is gone and Tony Franklin is just
getting his feet wet after arriving late to the show.
There won't be any high-flying, death-defying stunts from the Auburn
offense. It'll be a see-ball-hit ball attack hoping the offensive
line can be more physical than the Clemson defensive front, a lot of
power running, and a lot of hoping the defense can control the game
from the start.
Clemson's offense will simply try to outscore Auburn. Yeah, no duh,
but the idea will be to get up early, keep the pressure on by
getting points in any way possible, and hoping the AU Tiger attack
is as mediocre as it's been all year long.
To go cliché, expect the unexpected. No one saw the 2006 Virginia
Tech offense collapsing like it did against Georgia last year. No
one saw LSU blowing away Miami in 2005, and there have been shocks
after shocks in several other recent games. The
Don't-Call-It-The-Peach-Chick-fil-A
Bowl should be among the most unpredictable of the season.
Players to watch: The Auburn offense needs as many breaks as
it can get, and it got a huge one when Clemson's leading tackler, LB
Nick Watkins, and fourth-leading tackler, LB Tramaine
Billie, will be out after not hitting the books hard enough, and
junior Cortney Vincent, who's tied for sixth on the team with
54 stops, was arrested on drunk driving charges. That means, at the
very least, Clemson will be going with new outside linebackers with
freshman Scotty Cooper manning the strongside and sophomore
Kavell Conner on the weak. Conner didn't step up this year
and become the pass rusher and all-around playmaker he was expected
to be, but he didn't have much of a chance with Watkins hard to get
off the field. Now he'll get his shot. Cooper is a speedy prospect
who'll have to prove early on the he can hold up. At only 210
pounds, he'll get beaten on by the Auburn running game.
Auburn knows all about undersized linebackers, by design, as it
always likes to go with smallish, speedy tacklers who can swarm to
the ball. Sophomore Tray Blackmon might have the most overall
talent in the Tiger corps, but it's been 221-pound junior Chris
Evans, who led the team with 63 tackles, who's been the
surprise. A star in spring ball, he worked his way into more and
more playing time and will combine with the 223-pound Blackmon and
219-pound Craig Stevens to try to keep the speedy Clemson
running backs in check.
Offensively, the Auburn attack will revolve around running backs
Brad Lester and Ben Tate, who combined for 175 yards in
the win over Alabama and have been able to take more and more
pressure off Brandon Cox and the passing game. Tate's the team's
leading rusher with 856 yards and seven scores, but Lester is the
special playmaker when he's right, tearing off 473 yards after
missing most of the first half of the year.
Surprisingly, Clemson's offensive star was QB Cullen Harper,
who many were ready to shove aside this offseason for superstar
recruit Willy Korn, but turned out to be one of the nation's best
passers. With 2.887 yards and 27 touchdowns, and only six
interceptions, he was able to grow into an efficient, effective
weapon who makes everyone around him better. Four of his
interceptions came in the three losses, and while he won't have to
carry the offense, he can't force anything against the talented
Auburn secondary that was 11th in the nation in pass efficiency
defense.
Clemson will win if... gets the running game going, and
sticks with it. Easier said than done on a group that allows a mere
119 yards per game on the ground and hasn't given up more than 180
to anyone. However, in Auburn's four losses, the D had four of its
five worst days against the run giving up 776 yards and seven
touchdowns, while allowing a mere 656 rushing yards and four
touchdowns in the eight wins. On the flip side, Clemson had its
three worst running days of the year in its three losses, netting a
mere 34 yards against Georgia Tech, eight against Virginia Tech, and
47 against Boston College. Harper might be good enough to make the
attack shine, but it'll be up to James Davis and C.J. Spiller to
pull off the win.
Auburn will win if... the pass rush gets going. That
might seem like a given, but it's not considering Auburn was 11th in
the 12 team SEC in both sacks and tackles for loss. Quentin Groves
might have had a disappointing year with only three sacks, but he
missed time with dislocated toes and never got the same push over
the second half of the season that he had in the first. With time
off to rest up, he's looking for just his second sack of the season
since getting two in the opener against Kansas State. With all the
attention paid to Groves, Antonio Coleman was able to step in and
shine with a team-leading seven sacks, while 291-pound Sen'Derrick
Marks grew into an all-around beast who often commanded double
teams. The Clemson offensive line is fine, led by senior LT Barry
Richardson, an almost certain first round draft pick, but pass
protection has been an issue allowing 32 sacks on the year. Auburn
has to hurry Harper all game long.
What will happen: The Tigers will win. The loss of the
linebacking stars won't be a killer for the Clemson defense, but it
certainly won't help, while the offense will have problems
consistently moving the ball on an Auburn defense that should be
frothing at the mouth now that it'll be as healthy as it's been all
year. In his final game, Auburn QB Brandon Cox will be just
efficient enough to keep the green Clemson linebackers off the line.
That'll be enough to get Tate and Lester the room they need to get a
few big runs here and there to get control late.
Line: Clemson -1.5 ... CFN Prediction: Auburn
20 ... Clemson 16
2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
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