South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Dec. 31, 2:00 p.m. ET, CBS
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2007 Brut Sun Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
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National
Rankings |
|
South
Florida |
Oregon |
|
Total Offense |
|
39th 421.58 ypg |
12th 462.08 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
22nd 326.75 ypg |
62nd 386.83 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
20th 35.83 ppg |
15th 36.67 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
26th 20.67 ppg |
39th 23.83 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
28th 193.08 ypg |
8th 243.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
19th 112 ypg |
44th 136.50 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
55th 228.50 ypg |
62nd 218.83 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
40th 214.75 ypg |
87th 250.33 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
7th 1.08 |
30th 0.42 |
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South
Florida
Elon
W 28-13
at Auburn W 26-23 OT
No Carolina
W 37-10
West Va W 21-13
at FAU
W 35-23
UCF W 64-12
at Rutgers
L 30-27
at Conn. L 22-15
Cincinnati
L 38-33
at Syra.
W 41-10
Louisville W 55-17
at Pitt W 48-37 |
Oregon
Houston
W 48-27
at
Michigan W 39-7
Fresno St
W 52-21
at Stanford
W 55-31
California L 31-24
Wash St
W 53-7
at Wash.
W 55-34
USC W 24-17
Arizona St
W 35-23
at
Arizona L 34-24
at
UCLA L 16-0
Oregon St
L 38-31 2OT |
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Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
USF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
O |
|
4.5 |
Quarterbacks |
2.5 |
|
3 |
RBs |
4.5 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
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Yes, there
actually was a time this year
when this might have been
considered the deep, deep, deep
dark-horse possibility for the
national title matchup. South
Florida and Oregon each took
their turns in the nation’s No.
2 slot before reality and a
devastating injury,
respectively, set in for the two
wannabe champs. With far less
to play for in El Paso, the
Bulls and Ducks will vie for a
chance to restore their images,
while capping rollercoaster
seasons on a positive note.
For a few days,
it looked as if South Florida
might shock the world by
contending for the whole ball of
wax, but it suffered a midseason
letdown, appearing to struggle
under the weight of the
attention, dropping completely
out of the Top 25 with a
three-game losing streak before
regrouping nicely in November.
When compared to preseason
expectations, rather than the
hysteria that accompanied a 6-0
start with the win over West
Virginia, a trip to the Sun Bowl
is actually another positive
step in South Florida’s
evolution under Jim Leavitt.
After playing in the Meineke Car
Care and PapaJohns.com Bowls,
the program gets to venture out
for a rare game in Texas to play
in a bowl that has a rich
postseason history.
Although the Bulls are built
around DE George Selvie, LB Ben
Moffitt, CB Mike Jenkins, and
the rest of the suffocating
defense, it was the offense that
came alive in the season-saving
three-game winning streak. In
wins over Syracuse, Louisville,
and Pittsburgh, USF averaged 48
points, enjoying uncommon
support for do-everything QB
Matt Grothe, and a slew of
non-offensive touchdowns. When
the Bulls are getting production
from both sides of the ball, it
becomes clear again how they
were able to beat Auburn in
September, and climb to No. 2 in
the rankings in October.
While South Florida’s fall from
the two-hole was partly its own
fault for not playing well,
Oregon’s was a bad break, one of
the most consequential injuries
in recent history. QB Dennis
Dixon, the Heisman front-runner,
tore his ACL on Nov. 3, and was
lost for the season when he
tried to gut it out two weeks
later at Arizona. The Ducks
haven’t won since, losing three
straight games using a cadre of
untested quarterbacks that only
increased Dixon’s value to the
program. When Oregon sets out
to snap a four-game postseason
losing streak, it’ll do so with
a pair of redshirt freshmen,
Justin Roper and Cody Kempt,
taking snaps.
Crashing and burning isn’t
anything new to Oregon after
losing the last four games of
2006, dropping three straight at
the end of 2004, four straight
to end 2002, and losing its last
four bowl games. However, a win
over South Florida to end the
slide would be a better cap to
the season than it might appear
after where the program was at
just a few weeks ago.
Without Dixon, Oregon will lean
more heavily on RB Jonathan
Stewart and a defense that
played surprisingly well in the
regular season, allowing only 23
points a game and leading the
country in tackles for loss.
It’s an athletic, pressing unit
that gets substantial pressure
from DE Nick Reed, and has an
answer for South Florida’s
corners Jenkins and Trae
Williams with sophomores Jairus
Byrd and Walter Thurmond. No
longer in a position to outscore
opponents, the Ducks must
contain the Bull offense, while
creating a short field for their
own attack.
If nothing else, history is on
the Sun’s side with six of the
last eight games decided by
seven points or fewer, with the
other two high-octane, fun
shootouts (UCLA 50-38 over
Northwestern in 2005 and Purdue
34-24 over Washington in 2002).
The Pac 10 has won three
straight including last year’s
heart-stopping 39-38 Oregon
State win over Missouri and the
thrilling Sam Keller-led Arizona
State 27-23 comeback win over
Purdue in 2004.
Players to watch:
It was no coincidence that South
Florida RB Mike Ford’s
best three-game stretch of the
year occurred when the offense
caught fire in November. The
freshman gave defenses someone
other than Grothe to worry
about, a big back with good
wheels that can run through
defenders on the second and
third level. Ford ran for 337
yards and six touchdowns in the
three wins, a turning point in
what’s going to be a very nice
career in Tampa. The
inexperienced Oregon
quarterbacks are going to be,
well, sitting ducks for Selvie,
who’s authoring one of the great
seasons ever for a defensive
end. A flash coming off the
edge, he’s got 31.5 tackles for
loss, just one-half shy of the
NCAA record, and 14.5 sacks. If
too much attention is given to
the All-American, DT Aaron
Harris is capable of picking
up the slack.
In order to engineer the upset
in El Paso, Oregon will need its
other stars to play
beyond their potential. South
Florida won’t throw much, which
will somewhat neutralize Reed,
but the run-stuffers must step
forward from every level. That
means it’s up to DT David
Faaeteete, LB Jerome Boyd,
and S Patrick Chung, to
name a few, to contain Grothe
and Ford on the ground, forcing
the Bulls to rely on a sporadic
passing game. Chung leads the
Ducks with 110 tackles, and is
an asset in pass defense.
Stewart will be the focus of the
Oregon offense—and the South
Florida defense—so he’ll have to
break a bunch of tackles in
order to get into the open
field. A gamebreaker with a
unique blend of size and speed,
Stewart can really bolster his
draft grade, in the event he
decides to forego his final year
of eligibility in Eugene.
South Florida will win if...
it shuts down Stewart. With
Roper and Kempt at quarterback,
and the receiving corps thinned
by injuries, it’ll be up to the
running game to move the chains
versus a nasty Bull defense.
Stewart is capable of taking
over the game, but if he gets
bottled up around the line of
scrimmage, Oregon will labor to
mount any long drives or reach
the end zone. What’s worse,
without the support of a steady
running game, the freshmen
hurlers will wilt under the
pressure of Wally Burnham’s fast
and relentless unit.
Oregon will win if... it
rules the turnover battle. When
South Florida was losing three
straight games, it coughed the
ball up at an alarming rate.
The Ducks need to reenact that
period of time by dislodging the
ball on defense and special
teams, and jumping the routes of
Grothe’s passes, which aren’t
always fastballs. Led by five
from Byrd and four from
Thurmond, Oregon is No. 3 in the
Pac-10 in interceptions, and No.
2 in total takeaways. On this
day, the Ducks’ best offense
will have to be an opportunistic
defense that stalls drives and
gives the hobbled offense a
short field to traverse.
What will happen: For all
intents and purposes, Oregon’s
season ended when Dixon’s knee
buckled in Tucson a month ago.
Expecting the Ducks to suddenly
turn things around against a
motivated and healthy South
Florida program is unrealistic.
The Bulls will dominate an
overmatched Oregon offense,
stacking the line on Stewart,
and scoring a touchdown on a
rushed pass from one of the
fledgling Duck passers. USF
won’t explode on offense the way
it did at the end of the regular
season, but won’t need to with
its defense in total control.
Line: South Florida -6.5
... CFN Prediction:
South Florida 30 ... Oregon
17
2007 Brut Sun Bowl History, Each
Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
|