California (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Air
Force |
California |
|
Total Offense |
|
40th 120.42 ypg |
59th 396.08 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
44th 357.17 ypg |
53rd 374.67 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
49th 29.42 ppg |
59th 28.25 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
18th 19.33 ppg |
53rd 26 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
2nd 298.50 ypg |
48th 162.42 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
37th 131 ypg |
58th 151.92 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
118th 120.42 ypg |
51st 233.67 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
57th 226.17 ypg |
51st 222.75 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
20th 0.67 |
63rd -0.08 |
|
Air Force
SCSU
W 34-3
at
Utah W 20-12
TCU W 20-17 OT
at BYU L 31-6
at
Navy L 31-20
UNLV W 31-14
at Col St W 45-21
Wyoming
W 20-12
at N Mexico
L 34-31
Army
W 30-10
at
N Dame W 41-24
SDSU
W 55-23 |
California
Tennessee
W 45-31
at Col St
W 34-28
La Tech
W 42-12
Arizona W
45-27
at Oregon
W 31-24
Oregon St
L 31-28
at
UCLA L 30-21
at Arizona St
L 31-20
Wash St
W 20-17
USC L 24-17
at
Wash L 37-23
at Stanford
L 20-13 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
AF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
C |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
RBs |
4 |
|
2 |
Receivers |
5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
No bowl game this postseason is
likely to feature two programs
with more polar opposite
mindsets. Cal can’t believe
it’s here. For that matter,
neither can Air Force.
Any discussion involving the
biggest disappointments of 2007
has to include Cal, which opened
with a redemption win over
Tennessee, and was on the cusp
of a No. 1 ranking before poor
clock management led to a late
loss to Oregon State, paving the
way to an unimaginable
second-half collapse. This
talented Bear team, which was
seemingly a lock to end the
school’s half-century Rose Bowl
drought, wound up finishing 1-6,
capped by a listless loss to
Stanford in The Big Game. There
had to be some cataclysmic,
Dennis Dixon-like injury,
right? Nope. Relatively
healthy throughout the year, Cal
just imploded, seemingly losing
its bite on both sides of the
line during the worst stretch of
play in Jeff Tedford’s tenure.
The Bears are the more talented
overall team in this game, but
is the specter of a losing
season enough to motivate a
group of kids that had trouble
getting up for the Pac-10
portion of the schedule?
In dire need of some kind of a
spark, Cal could get it from its
most incendiary player, WR/PR
DeSean Jackson, who sat out the
Stanford game with a thigh
contusion. The junior became a
microcosm for the Bears’ season,
failing to fulfill all of his
potential, or play as well as he
did in 2006. Although injuries
were certainly a factor, a month
of rest should help the one
player most capable of
exploiting Air Force’s lack of
blinding speed.
On the flip side, rather
unexpectedly, Air Force has
delivered one of the feel-good
stories of 2007. Pegged back in
August as a second-division
Mountain West team, the Falcons
rose to second place in the
conference in Troy Calhoun’s
debut on the sidelines, earning
their first bowl invitation in
five years. The Academy got
humbled by BYU and Navy in
September, but quickly regrouped
to finish 6-1, highlighted by
its first win over Notre Dame
since 1963. Getting to ten wins
on the back of a Pac-10 opponent
would be a huge accomplishment
for a program that had minimal
expectations in the first year
after the retirement of Fisher
DeBerry.
Set aside the notion that Air
Force remains rooted in
DeBerry’s triple-option. Yeah,
the Falcons still overwhelmingly
favor the run, but they also
threw it more often with
all-time leading passer Shaun
Carney, and mixed in some
no-huddle and zone running
schemes. The tweaks worked for
an offense that’s second in the
Mountain West in total and
scoring offense. The veteran
defense is especially strong in
the back seven, and is not
afraid to take chances, an
ideology that’s resulted in 26
takeaways. Once they’ve
completed 24 months of active
duty, LBs Drew Fowler and John
Rabold, who’ll be playing in
January All-Star games, are
talented enough to take a stab
at pro careers.
Players to watch:
Two of the constants all year
for Cal have been RB Justin
Forsett and the offensive
line that’s paved the way for
his most prolific season in
Berkeley. Considered by some to
be too small to carry the load
after Marshawn Lynch left
school, he’s responded with 281
carries for 1,403 yards and 13
touchdowns, helping offset
unanticipated problems with QB
Nate Longshore and the
passing game.
Forsett will do most of his work
on the left side, running behind
C Alex Mack, G Brian
De La Puente, and T Mike
Gibson. Mack, in
particular, is one of the best
in the country at his position.
Facing the nation’s 118th-ranked
passing game, Cal LB Zack
Follett and FS Thomas
DeCoud can press the action
in an effort to slow down the
Air Force running game. Follett
is a terrific all-around athlete
with the range to make plays
before they develop. At 6-3 and
205 pounds, DeCoud is a
defensive back with the sticking
ability of a linebacker, and the
instincts to lead the Bears with
105 tackles.
Pocket rocket Chad Hall
has reached rock star status
around the Academy. And why
not? At only 5-8 and 180
pounds, he’s played his way into
being named Mountain West
Offensive Player of the Year,
leading the league in
all-purpose running and scoring
15 touchdowns. Originally an
option quarterback that got
switched to receiver, Hall went
ballistic in October when he
started getting more handoffs,
twice running for more than 200
yards. He’s liable to run
circles around a Cal defense
that’s had problems all year in
run defense.
The Falcons’ best answer to the
Bears’ talented receiving corps
will be CB Carson Bird,
who’s picked off six passes
despite rarely seeing balls
thrown his way. The playmaker
of the secondary, he also has
three fumble recoveries, needing
to cut off half the field on
Longshore if Air Force is to
avoid getting burned by the
pass.
Cal will win if... Longshore
plays like he did in September.
With Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins,
Robert Jordan, and Craig Stevens
running patterns, the Bears
should exploit the Air Force
secondary, but only if Longshore
does an about-face from a
horrible second half of the
year. The junior threw 11
interceptions over the final six
games, a trend that has to
change if Cal is going to
capitalize on its biggest
advantage over the Falcons. If
the Bears are able to pick up
the Air Force blitzes, Longshore
has no excuses not to make a
number of big plays downfield.
Air Force will win if...
either Hall, Carney, or Jim
Ollis rushes for 100 yards.
When that has happened this
year, the Falcons are a spiffy
9-0. Air Force will want to
play keep-away with the Cal
offense, controlling the tempo
with at least 60 carries, while
wearing out a gassed defense.
Although the Bears may have the
better athletes, the Falcons are
humming on offense, churning out
almost 1,300 yards on the ground
in three November games. If
they’re ripping off big chunks
of yards on the ground in the
first half, Cal won’t have the
fortitude or desire to battle
back in the second half.
What will happen: While Cal
has little desire to play in the
Armed Forces Bowl, Air Force is
pumped at the opportunity to cap
a terrific season in Fort
Worth. The divergent emotions
will be evident throughout the
game, with the Falcons
outhustling the Bears on every
play. Cal will have no answers
for Hall or the Air Force ground
game, finishing below .500 for
the first time since 2001, and
raising concerns that Tedford
has hit a wall with the program.
Line: Cal -4 ... CFN
Prediction: Air Force
30 ... Cal 23
2007 Armed Forces Bowl History,
Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, &
More