UCF (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
Dec. 29th,
4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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2006 CFN Liberty Bowl Preview
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2007 Liberty Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
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|
National
Rankings |
|
UCF |
Miss
State |
|
Total Offense |
|
32nd 426.46 ypg |
112th 305.33 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
58th 279.31 ypg |
28th 341.17 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
13th 38.38 ppg |
93rd 22.42 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
65th 27.85 ppg |
48th 24.83 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
9th 242.77 ypg |
79th 135.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
38th 131.08 ypg |
65th 159 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
101st 183.69 ypg |
108th 170 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
85th 248.23 ypg |
10th 182.17 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
39th 0.31 |
79th -0.25 |
|
UCF
at
NC State W 25-23
Texas L 35-32
Memphis
W 56-20
UL Laf
W 37-19
at ECU
L 52-38
at
S Florida L 64-12
Tulsa
W 44-23
at
So Miss W 34-17
Marshall W 47-13
at UAB
W 45-31
at SMU W 49-20
UTEP
W 36-20
C-USA Champ.
Tulsa W 44-25 |
Miss State
LSU
L 45-0
at Tulane
W 38-17
at
Auburn W 19-14
Gard-Webb
W 31-14
at S Carolina L 38-21
UAB
W 30-13
Tennessee L 33-21
at
West Va L 38-13
at
Kentucky W 31-14
Alabama W 17-12
at
Arkansas L 45-31
Ole
Miss W 17-14 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
CF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
MS |
|
3 |
Quarterbacks |
2 |
|
5 |
RBs |
4 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
3 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
3 |
Secondary |
4.5 |
|
4.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
You've heard about Kevin Smith, and
you've probably seen a few highlights. Now's your chance to see a
possible single-season rushing record fall and finally be able to
see one of the best players in college football this season.
All Smith did was run for 2,448 yards and 29 touchdowns while
leading UCF to the Conference USA title, and now he's just 180 yards
away from breaking Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record
(although Sanders set the mark in just 11 games and bowl games
statistics didn't count towards the tally). If he's going to get the
record, he'll have to earn it against a Mississippi State team fired
up to be in a bowl game for the first time since 2000.
After struggling for years to get to respectability, Sylvester
Croom's Bulldogs won seven games beating Auburn, Kentucky and
Alabama with a strong defense and just enough offense to get by.
This might not be a juggernaut of an SEC team, but it's more than
good enough to pull off the win over a UCF team in search of its
first bowl victory.
George
O'Leary took his Knight team to the Conference USA title game in
2005, but lost, and went to the Hawaii Bowl against Nevada, and lost
in a 49-48 heartbreaker. Now his UCF team is rock-solid having built
up to this point after a few years of growing pains, and now the
reclamation project is complete. Considering the Orlando location,
the new stadium, and the potential, this is a program on the verge
of blowing up into something truly special. But to take the next
step, this is a must-win for the team and the conference.
If Conference USA wants to be taken seriously, it needs to win a
game like this when its shining star is going against a mediocre BCS
conference team. UCF already beat NC State, and was strong in a loss
to Texas, but people are going to actually be watching this game,
and if there's a second straight Liberty Bowl loss to the SEC
(Houston lost last year to South Carolina in a classic), it'll be
that much harder to get the respect the league is desperate for.
Mississippi State has had a successful season no matter what happens
in Memphis, but this is a program that has to jump all over every
opportunity it gets. It managed to turn turnovers into a few huge
wins to get to this point, and now it has to prove the season wasn't
a fluke. Stopping Smith will be job one, two, and three, but that'll
be easier said than done.
UCF will obviously go for the win first and the rushing record for
Smith a distant second, but the two might end up going hand in hand.
West Virginia's Steve Slaton was able to run for 127 yards and Pat
White ran for 89, Tennessee's Arian Foster ran for 139, and
Arkansas' Darren McFadden ran for 88. That's not 180 yards.
Smith ran for more than 180 six times, highlighted by a 320-yard,
four touchdown day against UAB and 284 yards and four scores in the
Conference USA title game against Tulsa, and he'll get as many
carries as it takes, as long as he's effective, to keep control of
the game. He's the storyline, he's the reason to watch, and he's the
one who makes the Liberty Bowl one of the must-see games of the
early bowl season.
This isn't going to be a shootout like several other December bowls,
and it's going to be one of the most unpredictable games. There are
few chances to see college football history, and if Smith pulls it
off, it'll take something truly special.
Players to watch: Smith might be the real deal, but he
hasn't been doing it alone. LT Patrick Brown, LGs Cliff
McCray and Jeramy DeVane, C Kyle Smith, RG L.J.
Anderson and RT Josh Sitton have formed a tremendous
front wall that's been blasting open holes on a regular basis and
has been strong in pass protection. Sitton is the star of the show,
and while he's merely above-average on passing downs, he's turned
into a dominator for the running game. Smith, a former guard, is a
true anchor in the middle. The 6-2, 301-pound longtime starter is
the quarterback of the line and needs to have a big game against the
good MSU defensive tackles, 320-pound sophomore Kyle Love and
305-pound junior Jessie Bowman.
While Smith will take center stage, MSU needs to get its offense
going with its star back, sophomore Anthony Dixon. With a
perfect combination of skills with 4.5 speed in a 6-1, 240-pound
frame, he has the talent to explode on a UCF run defense that's
fine, but hasn't faced a slew of great backs. Dixon started out the
year hot with four 100-yard games, and six with 88 or more in the
first seven games, and then the meat of the SEC season kicked in and
as the only weapon for defenses to focus on, he struggled. Even so,
he finished the regular season with 980 yards and 13 touchdowns,
along with two receiving scores, and while he doesn't have to
outrush Smith, MSU will win if he comes close.
With the MSU offense struggling with its consistency, it might need
a score or two from other sources. Free safety Derek Pegues
could turn out to be the game-changer as a punt returner or with a
big play. He has unlimited range and tremendous quickness, the
former corner has to be accounted for on every pass play.
Considering MSU will have had weeks to gear up for stopping Smith,
UCF QB Kyle Israel has to do more than be along for the ride.
An experienced veteran with good mobility and a nice arm, he ran for
five touchdowns and threw for 15, including three with 261 yards in
a key late win over UTEP. He's been accurate at times, but he
struggled against the better teams, completing nine of 26 passes
against Texas and six of 13 in the Conference USA championship. He
has to be stingy with the ball and can't start turning it over if
Smith gets stuffed early on.
Mississippi
State
will win if...
it wins the turnover battle with at
least a +2 margin. UCF lost to Texas after committing three
turnovers. It turned it over three times in the loss to South
Florida, and five times in the loss to East Carolina. In the ten
wins, UCF turned it over just 13 times (compared to 11 in the three
losses). MSU doesn't have an explosive enough offense to keep up in
any sort of a shootout and it needs to force several mistakes, and
come up with several third down stops, to keep the Knights from
pulling away. MSU needs to get up early, force UCF to throw the ball
a bit, and keep Smith to around 100 yards.
UCF will win if... it forces MSU to start throwing
the ball. The Knights give up passing yards, but it's good against
inefficient passers, which is Wesley Carroll. The 6-1, 190-pound
freshman threw for 421 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas,
but he also threw four interceptions and MSU lost. He's a good
bomber and isn't afraid to push the ball down the field, but he's
not going to consistently march the offense unless the running game
is helping him out. UCF led Conference USA in sacks and even though
MSU is good in pass protection, generating consistent pressure
shouldn't be a problem.
What will happen: It's all up to the consistency of the MSU
offense. The defense will keep Smith in check and will keep the
score within range, but the Bulldog attack has to take advantage of
every opportunity and has to control the time of possession. It'll
do both as it pulls out a defensive battle thanks to four takeaways
and two big pass plays that'll come from out of nowhere.
Line: UCF -3 ... CFN Prediction: Mississippi
State 24 ... UCF 17
2007 Liberty Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
