Michigan State (7-5) vs. Boston
College (10-3)
Dec. 28th,
5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Boston College |
Michigan St |
|
Total Offense |
|
27th 436.54 ypg |
33rd 426.25 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
25th 331.38 ypg |
40th 351.33 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
55th 28.62 ppg |
24th 34.08 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
24th 20.31 ppg |
59th 26.83 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
105th 106.85 ypg |
22nd 200.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
1st 68.08 ypg |
42nd 134.08 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
6th 329.69 ypg |
59th 225.92 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
103rd 263.31 ypg |
43rd 217.25 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
43rd 0.23 |
30th 0.42 |
|
Boston College
W Forest
W 38-28
NC State
W 37-17
at Ga Tech W 24-10
Army
W 37-17
UMass
W 24-14
Bo Green
W 55-24
at No Dame W 27-14
at
Va Tech W 14-10
Florida State
L 27-17
at Maryland
L 42-35
at
Clemson W 20-17
Miami
W 28-14
ACC Championship
Va Tech L 30-16 |
Michigan
State
UAB
W 55-18
B. Green
W 28-17
Pitt
W 17-13
at
No Dame W 31-14
at
Wisconsin L 37-34
Nwestern
L 48-41 OT
Indiana W 52-27
at
Ohio State L 24-17
at Iowa
L 34-27 2OT
Michigan L 28-24
at
Purdue W 48-31
Penn
State W 35-31 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
BC |
5
highest
1 lowest |
S |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
One team is looking to kickstart a new
tradition, and another is looking to keep one going with a new head
man.
Under Tom O'Brien, Boston College was the one of the nation's best
bowl teams with seven straight wins. Now under Jeff Jagodzinski, and
coming off one of the best seasons in school history, a win over the
Spartans is a must or a year that had national title aspirations,
and later a shot at the ACC title and a BCS game, would be a
mega-disappointment.
This is Michigan State's first bowl game since 2003 and it's looking
for a post-season win for the first time since 2001. By almost all
measures, Mark Dantonio's first season in East Lansing has been a
tremendous success, leading the program to its second winning season
since 2001, but more importantly, the flake factor associated with
the Spartans is gone after wins over Purdue and Penn State in
the final two games to earn the solid bowl bid.
The teams
are good, the coaches are fantastic, and there are plenty of
exciting, talented players. Now the bowl has to break a recent
trends and be decent.
In the bowl's 16-year history, only only three were decided by seven
points or fewer with last year's Maryland 24-7 win over a lifeless
Purdue one of the worst games of the 2006-2007 bowl season. The ACC
has won the last four bowls by a combined score of 150 to 57, mostly
because the league usually sends over a team that had a strong
season and just missed out on something big, while the opponent has
gotten in by the skin of its teeth. For Michigan State to buck the
trend, its strength will have to be far better than BC's strength.
MSU isn't complicated. It likes to run the ball, hit the big play by
running, and power the ball by running. This is hardly a
one-dimensional team, but all things revolve around Javon Ringer,
Jehuu Caulcrick and the ground attack, and if it's not rolling, the
machine breaks down. That's where the matchup becomes interesting;
BC has the nation's No. 1 run defense.
The Eagles struggled against the pass, at least when it came to
giving up big yards, but it allowed a mere 68 yards per game thanks
to a tough, veteran defensive front seven and a strong pass rush to
help out the net yard totals. Despite a slew of injuries and other
issues, BC plugs in the holes and keeps on producing. Of course, few
recognized the defense with a likely first round draft pick slinging
it around on offense.
In a relatively strong draft class for quarterbacks, BC's Matt Ryan
has a chance to stand out with one final big performance. He might
not be a top five pick, but he can certainly turn into the must-have
first quarterback taken by tearing apart a strong MSU pass defense
and proving he can handle a steady pass rush. He had one of the
signature moments of the season leading the Eagles to a comeback win
over Virginia Tech in the middle of the year, but after three losses
in the final five games, he could use one more big performance and a
win.
The Spartans were this close to having a special year, losing
two overtime games along with a three-point heartbreaker at
Wisconsin, a seven-point battle with Ohio State, and a four-point
gut-wrenching heartbreaker to Michigan. All five losses were by
seven points or fewer, and with the strong way the season ended, a
win over BC would do wonders for the offseason and would set a good
tone for 2008.
Players to watch: 6-2, 215-pound junior Devin Thomas
was an afterthought in his first season with the Spartans after
coming over from the JUCO ranks, and then he blew up under the new
coaching staff with 75 catches for 1,226 yards and eight touchdowns
with four 100-yard days in the final six and a three-touchdown
performance to beat Penn State. He's big, fast, and has the look of
a solid number two NFL receiver. Good enough to turn pro early, a
huge game might be the tipping point and send him off to the next
level where he'd likely be a first day pick.
Trying to keep Thomas and the MSU passing game in check will be BC
FS Jamie Silva, the team's leading tackler and tone-setter in
the secondary. He's a tough, hard-nosed all-around playmaker who'll
be in charge of keeping Ringer and the MSU running game from tearing
off the big runs it likes to come up with to open things up, but his
biggest job will likely be making sure Thomas gets the ball with TE Kellen Davis
declared academically ineligible. The BC corners will make
their share of plays, but they need help on the deeper passes.
Of course, the marquee attraction is Matt Ryan, who threw for
300 yards or more in nine games and 400 yards or more in four games,
but he pressed way too much over the second half of the year
throwing 13 interceptions in the final seven games. That's what
happens when you throw the ball 50 times a game, but he has to keep
the mistakes to a minimum. MSU doesn't need any help.
While Ryan might be the big name, his counterpart, MSU junior
Brian Hoyer, is more than good enough to steal the show. Since
BC will load up to stop the run, it'll be up to Hoyer to take with
the defense gives him and keep the chains moving. He won't have to
carry the entire offensive workload, and considering the Spartans
lost the two times he threw for 300 yards, he probably won't, but he
can bomb away if this gets into a shootout. He's smart, accurate,
and has a live arm to keep pushing the ball down the field.
Boston College will win if...
Ryan gets time. There's decent
talent in the MSU secondary, but it can be picked apart by talented,
accurate quarterbacks. Ryan is a talented, accurate quarterback, and
while he has decent mobility, Virginia Tech showed what happens when
there's consistent pressure in the backfield. It's not just about
getting sacks, Ryan is too smart to take many of them, and he can
make plays on the move, but if he has to hurry his throws, that'll
play into MSU's hands. Give Ryan a few minutes to find his second
and third receivers, and the results could be disastrous for the
Spartans. Jonal Saint-Dic being out due to academic issues is a big
bonus for the Eagles, but the MSU defensive front is still fantastic
at getting into the backfield, but BC led the ACC in sacks allowed.
Again, that's partly due to Ryan, but the O line has to do its part.
Michigan State will win if... Hoyer is ultra-efficient. BC's
defense was an interception machine over the first half of the
season with 18 in the first seven games, but it only came up with
three in the final six games. Quarterbacks got some big yards on the
Eagles early in the year, but made plenty of mistakes. And then
Florida State's Drew Weatherford completed 30 of 46 passes for 371
yards and two touchdowns with no picks to hand the Eagles their
first loss of the year. Maryland's Chris Turner completed 21 of 27
passes for 337 yards and three scores and no picks in the following
game, and Virginia Tech's quarterbacks in the ACC title game
completed 21 of 33 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns with a
pick. MSU will want to get off the bus running, but as long as Hoyer
is keeping the Eagle secondary on its heels, the offense will work.
What will happen: Expect an offensive shootout. Michigan
State's balanced attack will come up with a breathtaking array of
big plays, pounding the ball a little while getting several home
runs from the receiving corps. It won't be enough. Ryan will be too
sharp and too good at spreading his throws around with several short
passes to RB Andre Callender neutralizing the MSU pass rush and
opening things up for the receivers on the outside. The Spartans
will come up with a good enough performance to get excited for next
year, but 400 yards from Ryan will be too much to overcome.
Line: Boston College -3.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Boston
College 30 ... Michigan State 23
2007 Champs Sports Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, &
More
