Texas (9-3) vs. Arizona State (10-2)
Dec. 27,
8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Get
Tickets for the Holiday Bowl
-
2006 CFN Holiday
Bowl Preview
-
WhatIfSports.com Holiday Bowl
Prediction & Box Score
2007 Holiday Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
There one consistency in the brief
history of the BCS: the non-USC Pac 10 teams always gets hosed.
Go over the years, and for whatever reason, the number two Pac 10
team always gets passed over, and it happened again this season as
Arizona State, who finished 11th in the BCS rankings, didn't
actually deserve a spot in the big money games, but at some point,
the Pac 10 should get a little bit of a break. On the plus side, the
glossing over of the league usually means a star team gets a spot in
the traditional first big bowl game of the seasons. However, that
hasn't always meant the Pac 10 has been able to come through and
prove it belonged in a bigger spotlight.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Texas |
Arizona State |
|
Total Offense |
|
13th 462 ypg |
52nd 406.67 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
54th 374.83 ypg |
27th 334.42 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
19th 36 ppg |
34th 32.17 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
45th 24.58 ppg |
22nd 20.08 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
25th 199.83 ypg |
67th 146.58 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
10th 99.33 ypg |
13th 100.92 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
36th 262.17 ypg |
38th 259.08 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
109th 275.5 ypg |
69th
233.50 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
79th -0.25 |
24th
0.58 |
|
Texas
Ark. St
W 21-13
TCU
W 34-13
at UCF
W 35-32
Rice
W 58-14
Kansas St
L 41-21
Oklahoma
L 28-21
at Iowa St
W 56-3
at Baylor
W 31-10
Nebraska
W 28-25
at
Okla St W 38-35
Tex. Tech
W 59-43
at Tex A&M L 38-30 |
Arizona St
SJSU
W 45-3
Colorado
W 33-13
SDSU
W 33-14
Oregon St
W 44-32
at Stanford
W 41-3
at
Wash St W 23-20
Washington
W 44-20
California W 31-20
at
Oregon L 35-23
at
UCLA W 24-20
USC
L 44-24
Arizona
W 20-17 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
T |
5
highest
1 lowest |
ASU |
|
4.5 |
Quarterbacks |
4.5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
3 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
California blasted
Texas A&M last year, but the Pac 10 has only beaten the Big 12 four
of the nine years the two leagues have played
in what's usually been one of the best games of all the non-New
Year's Day bowls. This season, the Pac 10, which suffered an ugly
death over the second half of the year when Oregon and Cal stunk it
up and UCLA got injured, could use a big win over a Texas team that
needs a win to get the Mack Brown era back on track.
Yeah, Texas came agonizingly close to playing for the Big 12 title
last year and yeah, it won last year's Alamo Bowl over Iowa, and
yeah, it won nine games this year, but this isn't the juggernaut
many thought it'd grow into after winning the 2005 national
championship. The defense has gone bye-bye, the offense has been
inconsistent, and Oklahoma has won the last two Big 12 titles. Brown
isn't on a hot seat of any sort, but a loss to ASU would get the
Longhorn faithful grumbling a bit and would make 2008 more pressure
packed than most seasons in Austin.
Arizona State was always tantalizingly close to doing big things
under Dirk Koetter but couldn't get over the hump. Dennis Erickson
came in and applied a word to the Sun Devil program not seen in
several years: overachiever.
This isn't an ultra-athletic ASU team, but it's been able to fight
its way through rough start after rough start to be one of the
nation's better second-half teams while coming up with the first
double-digit win season since the Jake Plummer-led 1996 squad. This
is a confident, relatively loose team that's playing beyond its
capability to be on the cusp of the BCS. The same can't be said for
Texas.
It's not just that Texas lost to Texas A&M for the second straight
year, it's that the team needed to scramble to get by Nebraska and
Oklahoma State late in the season while it struggled early on to get
by Arkansas State and UCF. Give credit to the Longhorns for finding
ways to win despite not being tremendously flawed, but that's not
exactly what the UT fans are looking for while Kansas and Oklahoma
are in the BCS and Missouri was BCS worthy. The Holiday Bowl might
be one of the elite non-BCS bowls, but this is the program's fourth
trip to San Diego since 2000; that's not considered a positive.
Can Texas establish its dominance and make a statement going into
2008? Will Arizona State be able to prove that it deserved to be one
of the big five bowls and that the Pac 10 really wasn't all that bad
after all? This game can be used as a jumping off point, or an
indictment. It'll also be the most important non-New Year's Day
game.
Players to watch: Considered a major disappointment last
season, Texas RB Jamaal Charles came back roaring as the best
back in the Big 12 this season with 1,458 yards and 16 touchdowns.
He was having a nice season, and then he roared against Nebraska
with 290 yards, highlighted by an epic 216-yard fourth quarter,
followed up by a 180-yard, three touchdown day to beat Oklahoma
State. His breathtaking speed was never a question, but this year he
showed off more toughness along with the ability to carry the team
on his back. Now he'll have his biggest test of the season against a
run defense allowing just 101 yards per game.
This isn't a star-studded ASU defense, but it's been tremendously
effective led by sophomore DE Dexter Davis, who finished
second in the Pac 10 with 10.5 sacks. He's not huge, but he's a blur
into the backfield and needs to get consistent pressure on Texas QB
Colt McCoy. Slowing down Charles will largely up to senior
Robert James, who went from being a promising reserve to the
team's top tackler. Only around 230 pounds, he uses his quickness on
the outside to be the team's steadiest defender against the run,
while also doing a decent job in pass coverage.
In the end, the winner of the game will probably come down to which
quarterback plays better. McCoy has had a fantastic season
considering he lost his number one receiver, Limas Sweed, early on
and didn't get a whole bunch of help from the rest of his receivers.
He wasn't as efficient as efficient as last year, and he threw 18
interceptions, but he threw for 200 yards or more in every game but
one and showed decent decision-making ability under fire.
Arizona State junior Rudy Carpenter settled down after a
rough 2006, relaxed, and threw 23 touchdown passes and eight
interceptions despite being knocked around as much as any
quarterback in America. He was tough, accurate, and relatively
consistent, especially in the second halves of games. With only one
interception thrown over the final five games, he didn't hurt his
team while doing a good job of spreading the ball around with the
onus of the offense falling on the passing game.
Arizona State
will win if... it can keep Carpenter upright. Texas doesn't
have much in the way of a steady pass rush, but that hasn't mattered
against a porous ASU offensive line that gives up sacks in bunches
allowing 51 on the year, along with 61 tackles for loss. If
Carpenter can get a little bit of time, he should be able to light
up the porous Longhorn secondary like a Christmas tree. With little
help from the defensive front, the UT defensive backs have been
under pressure and the they haven't come through allowing 276 yards
per game. As long as Carpenter doesn't get knocked out, he should be
able to throw for at least 300 yards on a group that allowed an
average of 393 yards per game and 13 touchdown passes over the last
four including 362 to Texas A&M.
Texas
will win if... it wins the fourth quarter. ASU
has been a notoriously slow starter all season long having found
ways to win late. Texas has had some of the same issues and has been
particularly fantastic in the fourth quarters scoring 94 points in
the last five (an average of 18.8 per quarter). The Sun Devils
likely won't be able to run the ball and will try to win with
midrange passes while getting the ball out of his hands as soon as
possible. The Texas Tech game will be a blueprint, so Texas will
have to get ready for a bit of a shootout, and with better parts
than ASU will be happy to get the offense moving.
What will happen: This should be an entertaining four quarter
battle with ASU able to bomb away on Texas and the Longhorn offense
able to use its balance to keep up the pace. Both teams will be
fired up, but neither team is really all that great with gaping
holes that will be exploited throughout. ASU's running game will go
absolutely nowhere while Charles, after being bottled up for most of
the game, will hit at least two home runs to get Texas ahead in the
second half just enough to hold off a late Carpenter scoring drive.
Line: Texas -1 ... CFN Prediction: Texas 34 ...
Arizona State 27
2007 Holiday Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
