Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
Dec. 22,
4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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2007 New Mexico Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
Alright New Mexico, let's try this
again.
USC might get to play in L.A. and LSU gets to battle Ohio State in
New Orleans, but when it comes to home field advantages in the bowl
games, no one will get a bigger boost than New Mexico playing in the
New Mexico Bowl for a second year in a roll. It didn't matter much
last year as San Jose State stuffed the Lobos with a great defensive
performance, and while UNM wasn't supposed to be able to play here
two years in a row, a quirk of the bowl lineup allowed it to happen.
It's a bigger deal than you might think.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Nevada |
New
Mexico |
|
Total Offense |
|
7th 488.92 ypg |
84th 131.08 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
71st 403.92 ypg |
23rd 329.08 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
18th 36.25 ppg |
78th 24.83 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
97th 32.92 ppg |
25th 20.58 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
11th 225.83 ypg |
84th 131.08 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
79th 172.58 ypg |
31st 126.67 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
35th 263.08 ypg |
57th 226.33 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
67th 231.33 ypg |
22nd 202.42 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
83rd -0.33 |
47th 0.08 |
|
Nevada
at
Nebraska L 52-10
at
Nwestern L 36-31
Nicholls St
W 52-17
UNLV
W 27-20
Fresno State
L 49-41
at
Boise St L 69-67 4OT
at Utah St
W 31-28
Idaho
W 37-21
at NMSU
W 40-38
Hawaii L 28-26
at
SJSU L 27-24
La Tech
W 49-10 |
New Mexico
at UTEP
L 10-6
NMSU
W 44-34
at
Arizona W 29-27
Sac. St
W 58-9
BYU
L 31-24
at
Wyoming W 20-3
at SDSU
W 20-13
Air
Force W 34-31
at TCU L 37-0
Colo. St
W 26-23
at
Utah L 28-10
UNLV
W 24-6 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
N |
5
highest
1 lowest |
NM |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
3.5 |
|
4 |
RBs |
4 |
|
4 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
The Lobos have a
nice 8-4 season going 5-1 in Albuquerque, with the lone loss coming
to Mountain West champ BYU, while Nevada lost four of its six games
away from Reno. So that should be enough for the Wolf Pack to just
enjoy the scenery and not worry about actually winning the game,
right? Not quite.
The explosive Pack offense has the weapons and the talent to hang
500 yards and 40 points on just about anyone, but the New Mexico
defense has bee solid all season long while the offense has shown
flashes of explosion. It should be an entertaining game led by
several good young playmakers, but it'll all come down to whether or
not Nevada can play a little bit of defense.
Playing in the WAC, Nevada saw its share of shootouts, but it always
seemed to come out on the wrong side highlighted by a 69-67
four-overtime thriller of a loss to Boise State, which set a record
for points and yards in game. There was a 49-41 loss to Fresno State
and a 28-26 battle with Hawaii to go along with a 36-31 loss at
Northwestern and a 40-38 win over New Mexico State. This is a team
used to going up and down the field, and it's also used to close
games with eight decided by eight points or fewer.
Unlike Nevada, New Mexico managed to be on the right side in most of
its tight battles going 4-2 in games decided by seven points or
fewer. Call it a sign of maturity that the team was able to beat San
Diego State, Air Force and Colorado State all by three points each
over the second half of the season as the Lobos won five of their
last seven games. They come into the game hot, while the Wolf Pack
is just looking to put a nice cap on an inconsistent season.
Few teams can lose their starting quarterback and get better, but
that's what happened after Nick Graziano was knocked out for the
year with a foot injury. 6-6, 215-pound redshirt freshman Colin
Kaepernick stepped in and turned into one of the nation's best
dual-threat quarterback with 567 rushing yards and six touchdowns to
go along with 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.
While he has the talent, he has to improve on his overall accuracy
and has to shine in a big-stage audition for what'll be a
quarterback battle going into next year.
For New Mexico, a second-straight home bowl loss would be a
devastating blow to a program that can't shake the tag of being one
of the biggest bowl losers over the last several years. 0-5 in their
last five bowls going back to 1997, the Lobos haven't won a bowl
game since 1961. On the flip-side, no one has a more thrilling bowl
history than Nevada, who has gone 3-3 with three of the games
decided by one point, two decided by three, and two of the games
decided in overtime. The biggest margin of victory in a Nevada
post-season game came in a 13-6 win over North Texas in the 1948
Salad Bowl.
It's mid-level team and mid-level conference bragging rights time.
This will mean a lot for both leagues, and for two teams about to
undergo a bit of an overhaul, this will be a big moment for several
young players to step up and shine going into the offseason.
Players to watch: New Mexico has the Mountain West's best
set of skill players led by junior RB Rodney Ferguson and the
tremendous senior wideout tandem of Marcus Smith and
Travis Brown. However, Ferguson will likely be out meaning more
will have to come from the passing game. Smith, a former running back, led the league with
86 catches for 1,039 yards and three touchdowns. Speed wasn't an
issue after making the full-time switch to receiver last year, but
consistency was. With the improvements from QB Donovan Porterie,
Smith has become a more reliable target with at least five catches
in every game but one and three 100-yard receiving days. Brown, who
finished third in the league with 69 catches for 911 yards and five
scores, was one of the nation's most productive receivers over the
first half of the year with five 100-yard days in the first seven
before Smith became an even bigger part of the attack. Brown has the
ability to strike from anywhere on the field and should feast on a
Nevada secondary that'll key on Smith first.
Ferguson was one of the lone bright spots in last year's 20-12 New
Mexico Bowl loss to San Jose State with 102 rushing yards, and he's
been a do-it-all workhorse for the attack this year with 1,177 yards
and 13 touchdowns while finishing third in receiving with 18 catches
for 264 yards and a score. While not necessarily a gamebreaker, he's
great at being able to wear down defenses while providing a pop from
start to finish.
While Kaepernick might be the star of Nevada's show, the offense
actually revolves around junior RB Luke Lippencott, the best
back in the WAC this season with 1,380 yards and 1The former safety
has great power and quickness for a 215-pound back, and he has a
nose for the end zone with five touchdowns in the regular-season
finale against Louisiana Tech and four in the shootout against Boise
State. With the Lobo defense needing to watch out for Kaepernick
coming out of the backfield, Lippencott should be able to run up the
middle all day long.
Nevada
will win if... Kaepernick gets running early. Statistically
this is a strong New Mexico run defense, but that's mostly because
the Mountain West is merely average at pounding the ball. San Diego
State, with running quarterback Kevin O'Connell, and Air Force, even
though Shaun Carney only ran six times, were able to have some
success on the ground, while TCU and Colorado State were able to
pound away. Nevada will want to keep its mistakes to an absolute
minimum and will get Kaepernick into the open on the outside as much
as possible. The more the Pack can run the ball, and the less
Kaepernick has to force throws on third downs, the better.
New Mexico will win if... Nevada LB Ezra Butler
doesn't have a huge game. Butler will wow the NFL scouts at the
combine and has WAC Defensive Player of the Year skills, but he had
a slightly disappointing season as he wasn't nearly the pass rusher
he was in 2006 and didn't do enough against the run until late in
the year. It'll be up to him to make play after play as the mammoth
Lobo offensive front, averaging 312 yards per man among the
starters, should be able to shove around the front three of the Wolf
Pack 3-4 all game long. If Butler isn't coming up with at least ten
tackles and doesn't keep Ferguson under wraps, the Lobos will likely
be dominating the time of possession and the tempo of the game.
What will happen: Nevada has the talent and the playmakers to
get into a shootout, which it'll prefer, but it'll likely have to
fight it out in a grind-it-out war with the UNM offensive line
looking to establish its dominance early. The Lobos will have to
throw and throw some more with Ferguson out attending to a "personal
matter," and Smith and
Brown will take advantage of single coverage as the game goes on. Can Porterie avoid making the big mistake? Probably not, but the overall
matchup, and the home field advantage, favors New Mexico. Even
though you never go against a streak, and New Mexico head coach
Rocky Long has yet to prove himself in a really big game, the Lobos
will come away with a tough win in a game that'll get better as it
goes along.
Line: New Mexico -3 ... CFN Prediction:
New
Mexico 34 ... Nevada 30
2007 New Mexico Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More
