Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)
Dec. 21st 1 p.m.
ESPN2
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- The Big Story
Southern Miss Welcomes
In The Fedora Era
- The Big Story
Cincinnati's Kelly Close To Signing Big
Deal
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2006 CFN PapaJohns.com
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Prediction & Box Score
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|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Southern Miss |
Cincinnati |
|
Total Offense |
|
62nd 393.92 ypg |
28th 436.33 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
47th 363.17 ypg |
51st 370.67 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
57th 28.33 ppg |
14th 36.75 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
38th 23.58 ppg |
11th 18.58 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
22nd 200.33 ypg |
56th 154.17 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
48th 139.58 ypg |
15th 105.67 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
90th 193.58 ypg |
23rd 282.17 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
52nd 223.58 ypg |
105th 265 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
74th -0.17 |
3rd
1.42 |
|
Southern
Miss
UT Martin
W 35-13
at Tenn. L 39-19
at ECU
W 28-21
at Boise St L 38-16
Rice
L 31-29
SMU
W 28-7
at Marshall
W 33-24
UCF
L 34-17
at UAB
W 37-7
Memphis
L 29-25
at UTEP
W 56-30
Ark State
W 16-10 |
Cincinnati
SE Miss. St
W 59-3
Oregon State W 34-3
at Miami U.
W 47-10
Marshall
W 40-14
at SDSU
W 52-23
at
Rutgers W 28-23
Louisville L 28-24
at
Pitt L 24-17
at
So Florida W 38-33
Connecticut
W 27-3
West
Virginia L 28-23
at Syracuse
W 52-31 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
USM |
5
highest
1 lowest |
C |
|
3 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
3 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Although Cincinnati was hoping
for a higher profile venue in
December, say the Sun Bowl or
Meineke Car Care Bowl, a chance
to win a second bowl game in the
same calendar year and a tenth
game for the first time since
1951 will be plenty enough
motivation in Birmingham.
Along with Connecticut, the
Bearcats were one the Big East’s
big surprises, flirting with a
league title well into November
before fading after a loss to
West Virginia on Nov. 17. The
team has responded very well
under first-year head coach
Brian Kelly, quickly adopting
his passer-friendly “Cat Attack”
offense and setting a school
record for points in a season.
The new system wound up making a
star out of Wake Forest export
Ben Mauk, who flipped 27
touchdown passes and led the
league in passing efficiency.
On defense, Cincy did a fair
amount of attacking as well,
stuffing the run with a veteran
front four, and leading the Big
East in both sacks and turnover
margin. Very quietly, Kelly has
Cincinnati ramping up toward
bigger and better things, but
will he be on board when the
program gets there? One of the
rising stars in the coaching
ranks, his name has been linked
to some higher-profile openings
this month.
Kelly’s future at Cincinnati is
a topic of uncertainty, but Jeff
Bower’s future at Southern Miss
is not. After 17 successful
years in Hattiesburg, he was
forced to resign following a
disappointing 7-5 season that
many felt would end with a
league title and a berth in the
Liberty Bowl. Bower will be on
the sidelines one final time,
facing a familiar foe that was a
member of Conference USA from
1996-2005.
Early 20-point defeats to
Tennessee and Boise State
lowered the bar for the Golden
Eagles in 2007, but it was an
inexcusable home loss to Rice on
Oct. 3 that sent shockwaves
throughout the conference and
the program. Southern Miss
recovered to nab a ninth bowl
berth in the last decade, but
never mounted a challenge in the
East Division. While it has
star power on both sides of the
ball in RB Damion Fletcher and
LB Gerald McRath, the supporting
cast is average, and the
signature “Nasty Bunch” defense
was not vintage quality during
the regular season.
The PapaJohns.com Bowl will be
an audition of sorts for both
Kelly and Bower. While Kelly
could be in line for a
substantial promotion, Bower has
been steadfast since his
resignation that he’s not
through with coaching.
Players to
watch:
One of Kelly’s big concerns when
he coached the Bearcats in last
year’s International Bowl was
whether or
not he had enough quality
receivers to effectively run his
offense in 2007. It took a few
weeks, but redshirt freshman
Marcus Barnett answered the
call, developing into Mauk’s
favorite target, while catching
60 passes for 845 yards and 13
touchdowns. A sure-handed, 6-1
target with good separation
speed, he’s going to be a
handful for a beatable Southern
Miss secondary that’ll have to
compensate for its own freshman,
starting CB C.J. Bailey.
For Southern Miss to pull the
upset in Birmingham, it has to
create running lanes for
Fletcher, one of the forgotten
star running backs in a league
that already has a pair of
2,000-yard rushers, UCF’s Kevin
Smith and Tulane’s Matt Forte.
The sophomore has run for more
than 1,000 yards in each of his
two seasons, carrying the Eagle
offense for a time when the
quarterback situation was in
disarray. It’ll be incumbent
upon linemen Chris Clark,
Nick Dean, and Ryan
McKee to get a push up front
against a Terrill Byrd-led
defensive line that yielded more
than 100 yards rushing in a game
just three times all year.
Southern Miss will win if...
QB Jeremy Young makes a number
of big plays with his arm and
legs. When healthy, he’s a
dangerous quarterback that’s
capable of breaking down
defenses whether he’s sitting
back in the pocket, or sprinting
out of it on designed runs.
Cincinnati is going to score
points, and make it very
difficult for Fletcher, Tory
Harrison, and the rest of the
Golden Eagle running game to
control the tempo of the game.
If Southern Miss is going to
keep pace, it’ll be up to Young
and his two favorite targets, WR
Torris Magee and TE Shawn
Nelson, to outperform a Bearcat
secondary that permits a lot of
long completions.
Cincinnati will win if...
it controls the turnover battle. Few programs in the country have
been better at creating takeaways than the Bearcats, which boast
Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith, a couple of thieves at cornerback.
Southern Miss has been careless all year with ball, which is a
surefire way to turn a competitive game into a rout. If Cincy gets
pressure up front with Byrd and DE Anthony Hoke, Young is type of
inconsistent quarterbacks that’ll make ill-advised throws.
What will happen: Two schools trending in different
directions will continue down those paths. Cincinnati will get a
couple of touchdown passes from Mauk, and at least three turnovers
from a defense that’s substantially faster than the Southern Miss
offense. The Eagles would love to send Bower off with a victory,
but once they get down in the second half, there won’t be much fight
left in a program that’s being led by a lame duck coach.
Line: Cincinnati -11 ... CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati 34 ... Southern Miss 20
PapaJohns.com Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More