Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)
Dec. 20, 9 p.m. ESPN
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- The Big Story
Paul Johnson is off to Georgia Tech
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2006 CFN Poinsettia
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The first bowl game will be everything for the future for Navy. Will
it be able to move on and be a yearly bowl participant without head
coach Paul Johnson, or will the program go back to being, well,
Navy?
This is the fifth straight bowl game in the most impressive and
productive run in the program's long and storied history, but with
Johnson off to coach Georgia Tech, it'll be up to
Ken Niumatalolo to take
over and keep the train rolling. There won't be any major changes,
Navy will still run the option as effective as ever, but will
Niumatalolo be able to bring the same sort of magic that Johnson
did, or will Utah continue to be one of the nation's best bowl
teams?
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Navy |
Utah |
|
Total Offense |
|
24th 444.58 ypg |
81st 362.83 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
99th 438.17 ypg |
15th 319.42 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
8th 39.92 ppg |
74th 25.50 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
109th 36.50 ppg |
3rd 15.58 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
1st 351.50 ypg |
47th 163.67 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
80th 172.67 ypg |
38th 131.33 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
119th 93.08 ypg |
85th 199.17 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
106th 265.50 ypg |
15th 188.08 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
63rd -0.08 |
15th 0.83 |
|
Navy
at Temple
W 30-19
at
Rutgers L 41-24
Ball St
L 34-31 OT
Duke
W 46-43
Air Force
W 31-20
at
Pitt W 48-45 2OT
Wake
Forest L 44-24
Delaware
L 59-42
at
N Dame W 46-44 3OT
at N Texas
W 74-62
No Illinois
W 35-24
Army
W 38-3 |
Utah
at Oregon St L 24-7
Air Force
L 20-12
UCLA
W 44-6
at UNLV
L 27-0
Utah State
W 34-18
at
Louisville W 44-35
SDSU
W 23-7
at TCU W 27-20
at Col St W 27-3
Wyoming
W 50-0
N Mexico
W 28-10
at BYU
L 17-10 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
N |
5
highest
1 lowest |
U |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
3.5 |
|
4 |
RBs |
4 |
|
2 |
Receivers |
2.5 |
|
3 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
2 |
Secondary |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
Utah has won six
straight post-season games and one in each of the last four seasons,
and it turned around its 2007 and got here with an even hotter run.
Banged up, bruised, and with the season going nowhere, the Utes were
1-3 in late September after hitting rock-bottom with a 27-0 loss to
UNLV. As the year went on, the team got better and better, beating
Colorado State, Wyoming and New Mexico by a combined score of 105 to
13 over a three game span before losing a heart-wrenching 17-10
battle against BYU on a painful final Cougar drive.
By not making mistakes on offense, tightening up the defense, and
getting tremendous pressure from the front seven, Utah turned into
the team many expected it to be at the beginning of the year. While
the early losses to Air Force and UNLV killed any shot of a Mountain
West title, the Utes played harder and harder with each game and now
looks to bring the same intensity and precision to San Diego for
their first meeting with the Midshipmen.
Navy came up with yet another improbable, bizarre season with a
59-52 loss to Delaware the week before breaking the 43-game losing
streak to Notre Dame. It survived a 74-62 shootout with North Texas
and outlasted Pitt in two overtimes, but lost to Ball State in
overtime and needed everything in the bag to get by Duke.
Phenomenal in some areas and flat-out awful in others, Navy is a
team that's great at what it's good it. The defense was among the
worst in the country, but the running game led the nation. The
passing attack was 119 out of 119, but the offense averaged 39.92
points per game. The punting game is abysmal, but the overall return
game might be the best in college football. Can the ground game be
enough to overcome all the deficiencies against a hot Ute team?
That'll be the big test for
Niumatalolo.
Navy should be able to get its 300-350 rushing yards, but if Utah's
offense is picking apart the Midshipmen secondary, the passing game
isn't there to make a comeback. Utah already played an option team
in Air Force, which Navy beat 31-20, and gave up 334 yards, but that
seems like several years ago.
Niumatalolo has
to get his offense, and it's now his offense, rolling well enough to
keep Utah off the field.
It should be this simple; if Utah QB Brian Johnson is on, this could
be a long, long opening game of the bowl season. If he makes a few
mistakes, and Navy takes advantage of every break, this could be an
extremely entertaining 60-minute battle. If nothing else, this will
be the best Poinsettia Bowl ever. Of course, that's not saying much
with only two played so far with TCU crushing Northern Illinois 37-7
last year and Navy running by Colorado State 51-30 two years ago.
Players to watch: Utah QB Brian Johnson suffered a
broken collarbone in the season opener and was never quite right the
rest of the way. Expected to play at a Mountain West Player of the
Year level, as a perfect fit for the spread offense, he was
inconsistent throughout with at least one interception in each of
his last six games and a mere 81 rushing yards and one touchdown.
It'll be his job to keep the chains moving, not turn the ball over,
and take advantage of the soft Navy corners while letting the
running game take care of the rest. As long as he's making good
decisions, the Utah offense will be fine.
The Ute attack will revolve around junior RB Darrell Mack,
who saved the season with five straight 100-yard running games,
followed up by a 97-yard, two touchdown performance against Wyoming,
to help guide the team after Johnson and the passing game started to
struggle. With good power and a little but of wiggle past the line,
he's an almost perfect back to blast away on a Navy D that's soft up
the middle.
Navy will try to get the ground game moving with a mix of different
looks and runs from the option, but it'll need a few big plays from
its home-run hitter, senior Reggie Campbell. While only 5-6,
he's a tough back who's a blur once he gets into the open. He ripped
apart Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago with 116
rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries, to go along
with 89 yards and two scores on two catches and 85 punt return yards
on four tries. He only ran for 464 yards and five scores this
season, and caught passes for 213 yards with four touchdowns, but he
averaged a whopping 7.25 yards per carry and 17.75 yards per catch.
He's also a deadly punt and kickoff returner.
Navy's leading rusher, and the one who makes the offense go, is
junior QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, a quick runner who has
fought through injuries and remains the key decision-maker who
spreads the ball around well. While he's a decent passer, if the
Midshipmen get down and the running game isn't rolling, it could be
up to junior Jarod Bryant to add a little more of a passing
element. Bryant ran for 139 yards against Northern Illinois when
Kaheaku-Enhada was out, but he's not the same runner. A tremendous
athlete, he can do a little bit of everything including making plays
on the move with his accurate arm.
Utah will win if...
it can throw. The
Navy defensive backs can tackle, but they can't cover worth a lick.
Even the most average of passers can complete deep balls to their
heart's content, and Johnson, if he gets on a roll, is better than
average. He won't have to bomb away deep, but if he can dink and
dunk on the outside, and let Mack rumble on the inside, Utah should
be able to score at will. It shouldn't take too many points to win
considering the Ute D hasn't allowed more than 20 since the first
week of October.
Navy will win if... the running game gets
rolling like it usually does. In Utah's four losses, the defense
gave up 241 rushing yards to Oregon State, 334 to Air Force, 196 to
UNLV and 155 to BYU. It didn't give up more than 136 in any of the
eight wins, and while that might seem like it's too simplistic a fun
stat, Air Force gave Navy the formula by controlling the time of
possession, hitting a few key passes, and playing good run defense.
Of course, Brian Johnson didn't play against the Falcons and Darrell
Mack wasn't quite Darrell Mack yet, but considering Navy never ran
for fewer than 254 yards, and averages 352 per game, this might not
be a Utah walk in the park.
What will happen: Navy will get its rushing production, but
it'll give up yards just as quickly. Utah's Louie Sakoda will be an
MVP keeping Navy pinned deep with his punts, while connecting on at
least three field goals. While Navy will want to prove it can win
under
Niumatalolo, the defense simply won't be good enough to get the win.
Line: Utah -9 ... CFN Prediction:
Utah
34 ... Navy 23
Poinsettia Bowl
History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, & More