Colorado (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)
Dec. 30,
8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Colorado |
Alabama |
|
Total Offense |
|
72nd 377 ypg |
75th 372.58 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
64th 389.42 ypg |
28th 341.17 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
63rd 27.58 ppg |
65th 26.83 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
78th 29.42 ppg |
29th 21.83 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
63rd 150 ypg |
60th 150.67 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
32nd 127.67 ypg |
34th 128.25 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
56th 227 ypg |
60th 221.92 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
101st 261.75 ypg |
39th 212.92 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
83rd -0.33 |
32nd 0.33 |
|
Colorado
Col St
W 31-28 OT
at Ariz St L 33-14
Florida State L 16-6
Miami Univ.
W 42-0
Oklahoma W 27-24
at Baylor
W 43-23
at
Kans St L 47-20
Kansas
L 19-14
at Tex Tech W 31-26
Missouri
L 55-10
at Iowa St
L 31-28
Nebraska W 65-51 |
Alabama
W Carolina
W 52-6
at Vandy
W 24-10
Arkansas
W 41-38
Georgia L 26-23 OT
Florida St L 21-14
Houston
W 30-24
at
Ole Miss W 27-24
Tennessee W 41-17
LSU
L 41-34
at Miss St
L 17-12
UL Monroe
L 21-14
at
Auburn L 17-10 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
C |
5
highest
1 lowest |
A |
|
3 |
Quarterbacks |
3.5 |
|
4 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Last year at this time, Alabama was
coming off a disastrous second half of the season with four losses
in five games and yet another loss to Auburn. Looking to turn things
around in the Independence Bowl, the Tide got down, came up with a
late rally, lost 34-31 to Oklahoma State on a late field goal,
canned head coach Mike Shula, got turned down by everyone and their
sister to take the gig, overpaid to get Nick Saban, started off the
year 6-2, collapsed with a four-game losing streak, complete with
yet another loss to Auburn, and is back in the Independence Bowl.
(Catch your breath)
While Bama is hoping for a win to stop the slide in the bowl for
misfit, mediocre big conference teams, Colorado is looking at this
as a step in the journey back to greatness. The Buffaloes are
rebuilding after the swift and painful end to the Gary Barnett era,
and unlike the Tide, rallied late with wins over Texas Tech and
Nebraska in the final month to get here. This might be seen as a
disappointing bowl for an Alabama team that was dreaming of Chick-fil-A
or, with a few big breaks, a New Year's Day game when November
started, but this is a great reward for Colorado coming off a 2-10
2006.
Colorado showed glimpses of the program it could become under head
coach Dan Hawkins with a stunning 27-24 win over Oklahoma, a nice
road win over Texas Tech, and a 65-point offensive explosion against
Nebraska to get the bowl bid. However, the team was way too
inconsistent in November with horrible performances in losses to
Missouri and Iowa State. With most of the starters back next year,
getting the extra practice time and the extra game is vital. The
same goes for Alabama.
To be fair to the Tide, this is also supposed to be a rebuilding
season with Saban expected to lead the way to bigger and better
things over the next several years. However, for a team that lost to
Mississippi State and UL Monroe in back-to-back weeks, and with an
offense that went bye-bye, this will be a long, long offseason if
Bama can't come away with the win.
A loss would
get the Tide faithful buzzing about whether or not QB John Parker
Wilson is the man for the job going into 2008. There will be issues
as far as Saban's game preparation, whether or not he's worth the
high price tag, and what the future will bring if next year isn't
night-and-day better. Of course, as always happens in the bowl
season, a win will be seen as the official start to a new year when
hope springs eternal.
As the lone bowl game of the day, it should be a worthwhile watch if
recent history is any indication. Seven of the last eight Indy Bowls
have been decided by seven points or fewer with six of then decided
by four points or fewer. Alabama played nine games decided by a
touchdown or less, while Colorado has played five, so these two well
coached, relatively even teams should play a good 60-minute battle.
Since the bowl started its regular tie-in with the SEC, the league
has gone 10-1 with last year's Bama loss breaking the string of
seven straight wins over the Big 12 in the game.
Players to watch: When John Parker Wilson gets time
and has consistent help from the running game, he's effective. After
throwing three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks against Tennessee
and LSU, Wilson struggled with one touchdown and five interceptions
in the three game losing streak while completing fewer than half his
passes against Mississippi State and Auburn. A two-year starter, the
time is now to make the team truly his, needing a huge game and a
win end any debate going into the offseason.
On the other side, this is key step in the maturity of Colorado
redshirt freshman Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, who has a
decent arm and a decent command considering his overall
inexperience. He cut down on his interceptions as the year went on,
throwing just one in the final four games after pitching 14 in the
first eight games. With little in the way of mobility, like Wilson,
Hawkins needs protection to be effective.
The quarterbacks might get the spotlight, but the stars are on the
defenses. Colorado's undersized tackling machine of a linebacker,
senior Jordon Dizon, made 336 career tackles and finished
second in the nation this year with 149 including a whopping 107
solo stops. While he can rush the passer, his job is to patrol
against the run and keep short pass plays from bursting into home
runs. While he's tough as nails and always brings his man down, he
can be knocked around by any offensive lineman on the move.
For Alabama, its defensive tone-setter has been sophomore Rashad
Johnson, a huge hitting safety who led the team with six
interceptions and 81 tackles. The former running back isn't all that
big, generously listed at 6-0 and 186 pounds, but he throws his body
around without a problem and has to be accounted for on every deep
pass play across the middle.
Colorado
will win if... RB Hugh Charles gets going. Colorado's
offensive line has been decent in pass protection, but the Tide
defensive front will generate more than its share of pressure in the
backfield unless Charles is pounding the ball. While he's a smallish
speed back, he can be a bit of a workhorse with good receiving hands
as a bail out option for Hawkins. Alabama doesn't have a dynamic
offense and it's not likely to be consistent, so if Charles gets
everyone focusing on him, and if Hawkins can get the ball out of his
hands quickly to neutralize Wallace Gilberry and the Bama pass rush,
the Buffs should be in control.
Alabama will win if... Wilson takes what's given to
him. He'll get 19 days to throw with Colorado's anemic pass rush
unlikely to cause a problem, and even with talented corner Terrence
Wheatley needing to be accounted for, the secondary will give up a
slew of big plays. The temptation will be there to bomb away and
hope D.J. Hall, Matt Caddell and Keith Brown can to use their size
advantage to outmuscle their way past the smallish Buff corners. All
Wilson needs to do is keep the chains moving, make most of his third
down throws, and not turn the ball over. Alabama has the better
defense and the better all-around skill talent, but if Wilson
stinks, it won't matter.
What will happen: Colorado will be plucky, hoping to be more
physical on both sides of the ball and hoping to force a few
mistakes. Alabama might be reeling after the way the final month
went, but with time off to regroup, the team that almost beat LSU
will likely show up with an opportunistic offense and a D that'll
keep the Buffs from consistently stringing together long scoring
drives. Saban will show that this really is a new era, and Alabama
will make a bit of a statement to get the fan base riled up for the
next eight months.
Line: Alabama -3.5 ... CFN Prediction: Alabama 30 ...
Colorado 17
2007 Independence Bowl History, Each Team's Best Bowl Moments, &
More