NFL Fearless
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Week 15
Pittsburgh
at St. Louis
8:00 pm NFL Network December 20, 2007
Why to Watch: Well, there really isn’t a whole lot, from a football
perspective, to compete with this matchup on a Thursday night. Unless, of
course, you are jonesing for the Poinsettia Bowl to kick off. The Steelers have
lost two in a row – a tough, yet expected, loss to the New England Patriots two
weeks ago and a tough, but unexpected, 29-22 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars
last week. The loss put the Steelers in a first place tie with the surprising
Cleveland Browns, both teams with 9-5 records. The Rams, well, they’re just
playing out the string. Unfortunately for Rams fans, it’s been a long string.
Too long.
Why Pittsburgh Might Win: The Steelers may not be the best team in the
AFC, but they’re definitely not going to lose three straight games in December.
The main reason why is the running of running back Willie Parker. The former
(forgotten) Tar Heel ran 14 times for 100 yards, his eighth 100+ yard
performance on the season. The Rams are 19th in the NFL in rush
defense, yielding 111.1 yards per game, so expect Parker to have his ninth 100
yard game to lead the Steelers to a win.
Why St. Louis Might Win: Can they really win with Marc Bulger at
quarterback at about 85% of his former self? Perhaps, but it wasn’t evident
last week against the Packers. However, the one reason why the Rams will have a
chance to win this week against Pittsburgh is running back Steven Jackson. The
former Oregon State Beaver had his best game of the season, rushing 24 times for
146 yards and a touchdown. His production kept the Rams in the game in the
first half; unfortunately, the second half took place.
Who to Watch: As good as the offensive line was opening holes for
Parker, the Steelers front five can’t afford to give up five sacks again, as it
did last week against the Jaguars. The Rams don’t pose quite the threat, from a
pass rushing perspective, as the Jaguars did, but the pressure is squarely on
Pro Bowler Alan Faneca and company to protect Ben Roethlisberger much better
than last week.
What Will Happen: The Steelers are going to do a number on the Rams this
week. The Dome atmosphere will keep the enthusiasm up in the early part of the
game, but the Steelers are going to ride Parker this week to get back on track.
Defensively, the key is going to be whether the Steelers front seven can stop
Jackson; they didn’t stop either Maurice Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor last week.
But, this week, they’ll hold Jackson under 75 yards and take home vital win
number ten.
CFN Prediction: Steelers – 31…Rams – 10
Line: Pittsburgh -8
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...2.5
Dallas
at Carolina
8:00 pm NFL Network December 22, 2007
Why to Watch: With the college season completed, what else do you have to
do on a Saturday night? And, with that said, where else are you going to be
able to get gratuitous shots of Jessica Simpson? All. Game. Long. Hopefully,
the NFL Network won’t turn this into the Jessica Simpson reality show,
co-starring the Cowboys and the Rams…unlike Fox did last week. Either way, the
Cowboys appeared to be a lock for home field advantage throughout the playoffs
with their last three games, all against opponents with no better than a .500
record. But, the Eagles harassed Tony Romo into one of his worst games as a
starting quarterback and the Cowboys lost 10-6. The loss leaves the Cowboys in
a tie with the Packers at 12-2 in the NFC, although the Cowboys do own the
head-to-head tiebreaker. The Panthers finally won a game, beating the NFC West
leading Seahawks at home 13-10. Believe it or not, the Panthers have slim
playoff hopes with two left to play. Mathematically speaking, of course.
Why Dallas Might Win: The Cowboys always seem to play a little better
when there’s a little ‘noise in the system’. T.O’s now talking about Jessica
and the effect on the team, not to mention the fact that he was grousing about
not getting his touches last week. There’s been a nice synergy between Romo and
Owens this year, but it’s got to get back on track this week. Romo has been
Teflon throughout the season, dealing with the pressure of being the main guy in
Dallas, so this will be another test. All he’s done this year is throw for
3,868 yards and 35 touchdowns and he’ll face a Carolina defense that is 13th
in the league in pass defense, yielding 212.4 yards per game.
Why Carolina Might Win: Although the Panthers aren’t one of the better
defenses against the pass, this unit did hold the powerful Seattle offense to
just ten points last weekend. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 274 yards on the
secondary, but could do nothing on the ground (44 yards rushing) and the
Panthers stopped Seattle in the red zone. This one performance proved that
every so often, this unit can still carry the Panthers to a victory. The
defense is 12th in the league in total defense, yielding 320.6 yards
per game, so the Cowboys won’t be able to just roll the star helmets out on the
field and win this game.
Who to Watch: Dallas running back Marion Barber. Excuse me, Pro Bowl
running back Marion Barber. With the potential of Romo struggling for a second
consecutive week, the Cowboys must look to get #24 involved a bit more in the
offense to take some heat off of the Cowboys signal caller. The former Gopher
is averaging just under five yards per carry and must get at least 20 touches on
Saturday night against this defense.
What Will Happen: The Cowboys have more at stake in this game than the
Panthers, even though Carolina is still mathematically alive in the playoff
race. Given the importance of a win in this situation, the Cowboys will come
out fir…well, pounding Barber and Julius Jones early and often. Although the
Panthers were solid against the Seahawks running game, they won’t be able to
handle this duo, especially Barber. He’ll have 125+ yards and a touchdown to
lead the Cowboys to their most important win of the year.
CFN Prediction: Dallas – 28…Carolina – 20
Line: Dallas -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...3
New York Giants
at Buffalo
1:00 pm FOX December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: The Giants can win the New York/New Jersey state title on
Sunday beating Buffalo up in Orchard Park. New York beat the Jets earlier this
season, but that was at a time when the Giants were playing their best football
of the season. If last week was any indication of what we’ll see on Sunday, the
state title may not come without a fight. The Giants couldn’t catch a cold on
Sunday night and the results were predictable, a 22-10 loss to the Redskins in
front of a national television audience. The loss leaves the Giants at 9-5,
still sitting relatively pretty for a wild card spot, but it’s evident that the
Giants are not playing well. The Bills suffered through an 8-0 loss in
Cleveland in one of the worst weather games of all-time with brutal wind and
snow. The loss all but knocked the Bills out of the playoffs, although there’s
a slim hope that either Pittsburgh or Cleveland loses out and the Bills can
sneak back in. Regardless, the Bills have taken great strides this season,
playoff appearance or not.
Why the Giants Might Win: Jeremy Shockey’s out for this week and perhaps
out for the year. Brandon Jacobs can’t catch a ball thrown right at him. Eli
Manning is playing like a rookie at times. No matter, the defense will carry
the Giants in this game. Although the Redskins put up 22 points on New York,
the Giants defense is still lethal, especially for a rookie quarterback. The
defense is seventh in the league in total defense, giving up just over 300 yards
per game. As such, expect Trent Edwards to struggle against Strahan, Umenyiora
and company.
Why Buffalo Might Win: The Bills have played much better than they have
on the road this season (the Patriots game excluded). The record is only 4-3,
but this is a team that seems to derive its passion and intensity from the home
folks. But, it won’t be the crowd that wins this game, it’s going to be running
backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Each back ran for 100 yards the last
time the Bills played at home and due to their efforts, the Bills are 16th
in the league in rush offense, averaging 110.4 yards per game.
Who to Watch: Giants running back Brandon Jacobs dropped nearly every
pass thrown to him on Sunday night, but it won’t be his pass receiving skills
that are the key in this game. Last week against the Browns, the Bills gave up
163 yards rushing to Jamal Lewis. That’s music to Jacobs’ ears. He has to wear
down the Bills defensive front in the same manner.
What Will Happen: The Bills will withstand Jacobs 25 to 30 carries by
taking a lead in the second half and forcing Manning to win the game. Without
Shockey and no confidence at this point in the season, Manning will have a rough
game and turn the ball over two or three times in a second consecutive Giants
loss.
CFN Prediction: Bills – 23…Giants – 17
Line: New York Giants -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4
Kansas City
at Detroit
1:00 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Although the Chiefs were a playoff team last year, not many
people expected them to do much of anything this season. As such, the 4-10
record isn’t altogether surprising, especially after the loss of Pro Bowl
running back Larry Johnson. The other side of the ledger? Oh boy, not so
good. After a 6-2 start, the Lions appeared to be headed to the playoffs and
perhaps ten wins as quarterback Jon Kitna predicted. Well, six straight losses
later and the Lions playoff hopes have gone up in smoke. Last week, both teams
lost – the Chiefs lost to the Tennessee VY’s 26-17, while the Lions got smashed
51-14 by the surging San Diego Chargers. One team is going to get a win after
60 minutes and it couldn’t come at a better time.
Why Kansas City Might Win: Quarterback Brodie Croyle isn’t going to set
the world on fire in his first year as a starter, but he’s starting to improve.
Last week against the Titans, he completed 25 of 43 passes for 217 yards and two
touchdowns. The two picks were crushers, but as he matures as a starting
quarterback, he’s becoming more of an asset, not a liability. The Lions are
going to force him to beat them, so the confidence he’s shown lately will work
in his favor against the Detroit defense, the second to worst unit in the NFL in
total defense allowed 374.4 yards per game.
Why Detroit Might Win: First of all, quarterback Jon Kitna isn’t going
to throw five interceptions for a second consecutive week. Second, the Chiefs
rush defense is 26th in the league against the run, yielding 125.2
yards per game. The Lions don’t rely on the run, but they did against the
Cowboys early in the game with TJ Duckett and should’ve come away with a win due
in large part to his production. So, this is another shot for the Lions to
establish the run against a much weaker front seven to have a shot at
winning…finally.
Who to Watch: Kansas City rookie running back Kolby Smith emerged after
LJ was injured against the Packers and has been solid. He should be
extraordinary on Sunday against a Lions defense that yielded 228 yards rushing
to Charger running backs Darren Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson last week. Each
guy went over 100 yards on the day, so keep an eye on Smith and his production
against a defense still scarred by what the Chargers running back duo did to
them last week.
What Will Happen: The Lions will get a much needed win, albeit a week or
three too late. Duckett and Kevin Jones will combine for 125+ yards and a
couple of touchdowns, while receiver Calvin Johnson has another solid game with
a touchdown catch down in the red zone. Can you say “off the schneid”? The
Lions can.
CFN Prediction: Lions – 29…Chiefs – 27
Line: Detroit -5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...2
Philadelphia
at New Orleans
1:00 pm FOX December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: It’s a rematch of the NFC Divisional playoff game from last
year – so let’s just hope that it can be as good a game as that one was.
Speaking of playoffs, the Saints still have a shot to make it at 7-7 after last
week’s 31-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals. It hasn’t been the prettiest
season in recent memory, but the Saints have been grinding every week to put
themselves in position to make the postseason. Philly had its best win of the
season last week, knocking out the Cowboys 10-6 in perhaps the most physical
game of the weekend. But, the question for the Eagles is whether they can go on
the road for two consecutive weekends, against potential playoff teams and play
well again.
Why Philadelphia Might Win: Running back Brian Westbrook has been the
most complete and consistent running back in the NFC this season. Running or
receiving, it doesn’t matter, the former Villanova product gets it done every
week. Last week, against the Cowboys, he had 81 yards rushing and nine catches
for 63 yards receiving. And, the good news for Eagles fans is that he wasn’t
the absolute key to winning that game. The Eagles defense played its best game
of the season, holding Jessica Romo to 13 of 36 passing, his worst outing of the
season.
Why New Orleans Might Win: Drew. Brees. Flat out, there is no player
carrying his team to the finish line more than Brees is for the Saints. He’s
thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions the last two weeks in wins over
Atlanta and Arizona, while completing 76% of his passes for 643 yards. The
Eagles will throw so many different blitz looks at Brees, but if any quarterback
in the league can handle it, it’s this guy, at this time.
Who to Watch: Westbrook, however, won’t be the only dual threat back on
the field on Sunday. And, no that doesn’t mean a Reggie Bush sighting. The
former Ashwaubenon product Aaron Stecker ran for 95 yards on 22 carries and also
caught six passes from Brees for 46 yards. Even though Brees is the
unquestioned leader of this offense, Stecker’s production has made life just a
bit easier for the Saints signal caller.
What Will Happen: The Saints, playing at home for the second consecutive
week, with the Eagles on the road for the second consecutive week, will take
advantage of the situation and put up another 30 points on the board. The
Eagles will get caught in bad man coverage a time or three and Brees will
capitalize. And, the Saints will win.
CFN Prediction: Saints – 31…Eagles – 17
Line: New Orleans -3
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4
Oakland
at Jacksonville
1:00 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Right now, the Jaguars are playing as well as any team in
the NFL. Point blank, end of story. The Jags traveled up to Pittsburgh last
week, after the Steelers had lost to the Patriots, and thumped the Steelers.
Sure, the Jags needed to score late in the game for the 29-22 win, but
Jacksonville dominated throughout the game and served notice that division
winners won’t want to see them come playoff time. The Raiders gave Indianapolis
all they could handle in a 21-14 loss at home, but this week could get ugly as
Oakland must travel all the way across country to take on the 10-4 Jaguars.
Why Oakland Might Win: The Raiders only real chance at winning this game
is by running the football right at the Jaguars. Behind the second half of the
season surge by Justin Fargas, the Raiders are fifth in the league in rush
yardage per game, averaging 132.4 yards per game. The Jags are sixth in the
league in rush defense, but the Raiders must test the front seven throughout, to
have any chance of winning, even without Fargas, lost for the season with an
injury.
Why Jacksonville Might Win: With the great quarterbacks in the AFC,
it’ll always be tough for David Garrard to get any Pro Bowl love, but he’s just
as valuable, if not more, to his team than the guys who’ll make the Hawaii
trip. He’s made key throws in important spots, thrown only two interceptions
and is as tough as a day old steak. He epitomizes the toughness on this team
and over the past three games, all he’s done is throw seven touchdown passes
against some of the best secondaries in the league (Indy, Carolina and
Pittsburgh). Sure, the running game is as good as it gets, but the Jags have
only lost one game this season that Garrard started and finished.
Who to Watch: Oakland’s defensive front seven. The Raiders were once one
of the best defenses against the run, but this year, uh, not so much. The
defense is 31st in the league, giving up 143.8 yards per game and,
well, the Jagaurs are second in the league in rush offense, averaging 149.6
yards per game. Think Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will carry the ball a
few dozen times? Yeah, like three dozen.
What Will Happen: The Jags will stay hot with a decisive win over the
Raiders who are playing for pride and pride only. Well, draft positioning, if
you want to get technical about it. Either way, it won’t matter because the
Jags will get 200+ yards passing from Garrard and 200+ yards rushing from
Jones-Drew and Taylor.
CFN Prediction: Jaguars – 34…Raiders – 10
Line: Jacksonville -13
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...2.5
Cleveland
at Cincinnati
1:00 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: The battle for Ohio doesn’t have near the panache of say
the early 1980s, but at least one of the two participants is playing for
something. A playoff something. The Browns did enough in the snowstorm to beat
the Bills 8-0 for win number nine. And, combined with the Steelers loss to the
Jaguars, the Browns climbed into a first place tie with Pittsburgh. So, not
only is a playoff berth on the line in these last two games, a potential AFC
North championship is there for the taking. However, nothing will please the
Bengals more than knocking the Browns off their first place perch. The Bengals
lost last week 20-13 to the 49ers on the road, so a home game is needed badly.
Why Cleveland Might Win: The Browns have ridden the arm of Derek
Anderson all season long, but last week, the ‘old’ Jamal Lewis showed up and put
the Browns offense on his back. He ran for 163 yards on 33 carries, all of them
key in last week’s Browns win. The Bengals are 24th in the league
against the run, so expect Mr. Lewis to have fewer carries, but the same impact.
Why Cincinnati Might Win: Although the Browns shut out the Bills last
week and the defense played well against the pass, the Bengals present a new
challenge with the way quarterback Carson Palmer throws the football. The
Bengals offense is fifth in the league in passing, while the Browns defense is
29th in pass defense. That’s not a difficult formula to figure out –
the Bengals can throw the football on anyone and the Browns are, well, they’re
only better than three teams in the league.
Who to Watch: The Browns pass rush. Facing a rookie quarterback in a
blinding snowstorm, playing with a lead the entire time, you’d expect the Browns
defense to at least pick up a couple of sacks or pressures on the quarterback.
Right?!? Uh, no. How about zero sacks? The Browns must get more pressure on
Palmer this week to have a chance stopping the high-flying Bengal offense.
What Will Happen: The Browns have more to play for, which scares the
bejeezus out of me making this prediction. The Bengals could easily go belly
up, but they did that last week out in San Francisco. If they’ve packed it in
for the season, then this one is easy. But, I don’t know that they have, so
let’s go with the upset in this one, as Palmer goes 300+/three touchdowns on the
Browns secondary.
CFN Prediction: Bengals – 27…Browns – 24
Line: Cleveland -3
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4
Green Bay
at Chicago
1:00 pm FOX December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Who doesn’t love a little Packers-Bears in December? A
little snow. A little mud. A little grudge match. A little Kyle Orton. Whoa,
stop right there. Kyle Orton in December is about the same as Bob Avellini or
Vince Evans or Rex Grossman at any time. The Packers might’ve cruised into and
through this game, until the Cowboys left the door for home field advantage
ajar, just a little bit. The Packers beat up on the Rams in St. Looey, 33-14,
for win number twelve. The Bears beat the Packers earlier this season in Green
Bay, but needed quarterback Brett Favre to melt down in the second half to make
that happen. The Bears got a couple of extra days rest after their Thursday
night loss to Washington before going to Minnesota on Monday night, but it
didn’t matter as the Bears lost to Minnesota 20-13.
Why Green Bay Might Win: Motivation. Lots of it. First of all, the
Packers lost to the Bears earlier this season and want desperately to avenge
that loss. Second, the Packers now have a realistic shot at home field
advantage throughout the playoffs due to the Cowboys hiccup last week. Add the
motivation inherent in those listed above to the fact that the Packers are one
of the best offenses in the league (third in total offense) and this could go
horribly wrong for the Bears.
Why Chicago Might Win: The Bears have nothing to play for, other than
not wanting a tenth loss. And, maybe that’s the Bears motivation. Other than
that, the Bears have got to find a way to get the football to their main weapon,
Devin Hester. If the Packers choose not to kick to him, then the Bears must
find a way to get him the ball in space. Hey, after four years at Purdue, you
know that Orton can throw a bubble screen. That’s all Hester needs.
Who to Watch: The Bears secondary. No unit has more pressure on it than
the Bears secondary. The Bears defense is 26th in the league against
the pass, giving up 232.2 yards through the air per game. Consequently, if
Favre has his way with the Bears secondary, the Packers will rout the Bears.
What Will Happen: The Packers will get the Bears’ best shot, but it won’t
matter as Favre will throw for 275+ yards and a pair of touchdowns in a Packers
win. Running back Ryan Grant will dominate the ball in the second half in
another Packers victory.
CFN Prediction: Packers – 28…Bears – 23
Line: Green Bay -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...3.5
Houston
at Indianapolis
1:00 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: The AFC South is by far the best division in the NFL, and
two of its combatants take to the field again on Sunday. This division is so
strong that the Texans are 0-4 against the Colts, Titans and Jaguars this
season, but 7-3 against the rest of their schedule. Shoot, they’ve won the NFC
South and are 3-1 against the AFC West. The 31-13 win over the Broncos on
national television last Thursday night proved that the Texans are a legitimate
playoff threat in the future. However, Indianapolis is on another plane,
really. Now, the Texans did beat the Colts last year on Christmas Eve, but the
Colts returned the favor earlier in the season, beating the Texans in Houston
30-24. The Colts have won five in a row since the San Diego loss, including
last week’s 21-14 win over Oakland. The Texans need to prove that they can play
with the AFC South big boys, while the Colts want to hold the insurgents down,
yet again.
Why Houston Might Win: The Broncos defense had no idea how to stop the
Texans last Thursday night. Quarterback Sage Rosenfels threw the ball
efficiently – 16 of 27 for 200 yards and a touchdown, while running backs Ron
Dayne and Darius Walker combined for 133 yards on the ground in one of the best
running performances this season. The Texans are ninth in the NFL in passing,
throwing for 242.7 yards per game and the passing game hasn’t slowed one bit
with Rosenfels under center. Just think Miami fans, he could be your starting
quarterback right now.
Why Indianapolis Might Win: The last two weeks, the Texans have given up
14 points to the Bucs and 13 points to the Broncos. However, this is the Colts’
offense, the unit that did whatever it pleased to the Texans in the first
matchup. The Colts offense is fourth in the league in total offense, averaging
363.4 yards per game, and lit up the Texans for 362 yards and 30 points.
Who to Watch: It’s no coincidence that the re-emergence of the Colts
offense coincides with the emergence of receiver Anthony Gonzalez over the last
two weeks. He’s had 13 catches for 220 yards and three touchdowns over the past
two games and has given Manning another option in the passing game. As if he
needed another one.
What Will Happen: The Colts may give some injured guys the week off, but
Manning should still be under center. And, that’s the difference in this one.
Manning will take what Houston gives him, which could be along the lines of 300+
yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Texans won’t give up the deep ball this
week, but Manning is patient enough to take the 15 yard in route for a first
down all day long. He’ll take enough of them to defeat the Texans.
CFN Prediction: Colts – 28…Texans – 24
Line: Indianapolis -7
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4
Atlanta
at Arizona
4:05 pm FOX December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Now that the Bobby Petrino situation has died down, if only
slightly, the Falcons can get back to business, because they forgot to do just
that last week against the Buccaneers. Emmitt Thomas has been waiting for what
seems like decades to get a head coaching job and the Falcons went out in his
debut and got hammered 37-3. Sure, the team is going nowhere this season, but
to not even show up in the man’s debut? Wow. The Cardinals didn’t play all
that well either, losing 31-24 to the Saints in New Orleans, but at least they
were competitive.
Why Atlanta Might Win: How can this team win? They don’t seem to care
about winning, much less going out on the field and competing. But, if they’re
going to win, they’ve got the right asset in the right place. The Cardinals are
going to want to establish the air attack, but the Falcons are 12th
in the NFL in pass defense, giving up 210.9 yards per game. And, in this game,
that gives them a chance.
Why Arizona Might Win: The Cardinals are 4-2 at home this season and
need to close the season strong against one of the worst, if not THE worst team
in the league. Kurt Warner may not get any votes for Comeback Player of the
Year, but he should. The former MVP has thrown for 2,748 yards and 21
touchdowns and kept the Cardinals afloat after Matt Leinart was lost for the
season. Against the Falcons 24th ranked defense, expect Warner to go
big while at home.
Who to Watch: The only positive aspect for the Falcons last week was the
continued efforts of second year running back Jerious Norwood. The former
Mississippi State Bulldog ran for 73 yards on only nine carries. With Chris
Redman throwing more passes to the other team than his own team, Norwood is the
only offensive weapon the Falcons have.
What Will Happen: The Falcons might get a decent game out of Norwood, but
c’mon, is there anyway that the Cardinals are going to lose to this bunch at
home? No way. The Cardinals will throw and run at will in this game, giving
Thomas his second loss in a row.
CFN Prediction: Cardinals – 27… Falcons – 10
Line: Arizona -10
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...1
Tampa Bay
at San Francisco
4:05 pm FOX December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: The juggernaut that is the San Francisco 49ers can claim
another late season road victim with Tampa Bay coming to town on Sunday. The
49ers beat the Bengals 20-13 on Saturday night for win number four on the
season. And, a long season it has been. Regardless, the Buccaneers won for the
second time in a row, beating the Falcons into submission 37-3 and scoring on a
kickoff return for the first time in franchise history. Tampa Bay has clinched
the NFC South and will play a Wild Card game at home in the first round, so this
one has no real bearing other than who Tampa Bay might play. For San Francisco,
though, this is one is for 49er pride, if there’s such a thing.
Why Tampa Bay Might Win: The Buccaneers don’t put a scare into defenses
as they used to when Brad Johnson was under center (and yes, that’s a little bit
tongue in cheek), but one thing they’ve proven over the past few weeks is that
they can run the football, even without Carnell Williams. The Bucs, behind
Earnest Graham, are tenth in the league, averaging 121.3 yards per game.
Considering the fact that the 49ers are 23rd in the league against
the run, giving up 119.0 yards per game, Graham and the offensive line should
have big time fun this weekend.
Why San Francisco Might Win: Quarterback Shaun Hill is 1-0 as a starter,
while former number one draft pick Alex Smith, uh, well, let’s not pile on a man
that’s injured. Hill completed 75% of his 28 throws for 197 yards and a
touchdown with no interceptions. Combined with 138 yards of rushing from Frank
Gore, the 49er offense actually was competent on Saturday night and it paid off
in a fourth win. The Bucs defense is third in the league in total offense and
first in scoring defense, but watch what Hill and Gore can, and will, do this
weekend.
Who to Watch: 49er linebacker Patrick Willis is going to the Pro Bowl
this February and is already one of the best linebackers in the league. He has
142 tackles on the season and will be the one guy that the Buccaneers must get a
hat on to run the ball effectively. Willis has the perfect blend of speed,
quickness, football IQ and nasty to be a perennial Pro Bowler and he’ll prove
that on Sunday.
What Will Happen: The 49ers will play well, but the Bucs are just better
in nearly every aspect of the game. Graham will get 85+ yards on the ground,
while Jeff Garcia returns to his former home, throwing for a pair of touchdowns
to lead the Bucs to victory.
CFN Prediction: Bucs – 23…49ers – 19
Line: Tampa Bay -6
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...2.5
New York Jets
at Tennessee
4:15 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: There might be some hope after all, Jets fans. After all
of the Spy-Gate hype and the talk that the Patriots would obliterate the Jets,
Eric Mangini’s crew battled hard in a 20-10 loss in New England. But, it’s
still a loss and the Jets have eleven of them on the season, making a strong
case for a top three pick in the NFL draft. The Titans, on the other hand, are
fighting for a playoff berth, one game behind the Browns/Steelers. Last week,
the Titans beat the Chiefs 26-17 in Kansas City to stay alive in the playoff
hunt.
Why the Jets Might Win: The Titans have been up and down over the past
four weeks. Win a game, lose a game. Rinse, lather and repeat. Well, the
Titans won last week, so what’s coming next? Other than that, the Jets played
as well as any team defensively could’ve played last weekend, in particular
against the pass. The Jets didn’t give up a touchdown to Tom Brady, the first
time that Brady has gone touchdown-less this season, and held him under 50%
completion percentage (14 of 27), with only 140 passing yards. If the defense
can frustrate Vince Young in a similar manner, look out.
Why Tennessee Might Win: The only problem for the Jets is that they have
to try to score on the Titans and that’s not easy at all. The Titans defense is
fifth in the league in total defense (298.2 yards per game), ninth in passing
defense (200.8 yards per game) and seventh in rush defense (97.4 yards per
game). Considering the fact that quarterback Kellen Clemens is questionable,
leaving Chad Pennington in the lineup to throw everything 15 yards or less, the
Jets may have significant trouble against the Titans stout defense.
Who to Watch: Titan running back LenDale White and Jets running back Leon
Washington are as different as night and day, but each guy gives his team a
chance to move the football on the ground. White will pound and pound and pound
on the Jets 30th ranked rush defense, while Washington has a chance
to pick up chunks of yardage on the perimeter with his speed. Washington
averaged over 14 yards per carry last week, while White carried the ball 24
times for 93 yards. One of these two will make a significant impact in this
game.
What Will Happen: The Titans, at home, with more to play for, will fight
through a tough, four quarter game for their ninth win. Quarterback Vince Young
will make a couple of big plays with his legs in the fourth quarter to put the
Titans out in front to stay.
CFN Prediction: Titans – 17…Jets – 12
Line: Tennessee -9
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...3
Baltimore
at Seattle
4:15 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: The Seahawks are headed for the playoffs, but you wouldn’t
have known that watching this team struggle with the Carolina Panthers last
week, losing 13-10. However, the Seahawks had a division championship sewed up,
so it wasn’t surprising in some sense to see the Seahawks play that poorly.
Speaking of playing poorly, how about the Ravens losing to the Miami Dolphins,
the artist formerly known as the winless Miami Dolphins? The Ravens lost to the
Dolphins in overtime after settling for a field goal when the offense had the
ball on the one yard line late in the fourth quarter. Not sure about the
decision there, especially with only four wins on the season and on the road,
but I digress. And, what do the Ravens get for their troubles – a first class
ticket all the way across the country to face the NFC West champion Seahawks.
Oy vey!
Why Baltimore Might Win: The Ravens are going to start former Heisman
Trophy winner and rookie Troy Smith against the Seahawks, which we’ve been
calling for a while. The rookie gave the Ravens a spark in mop up time against
the Colts and he can use his legs to make something happen when the play or the
protection breaks down. Smith will get some help from his weary defense, the
sixth ranked unit in the league, giving up just over 300 yards per game (301.8
to be exact). The combination of Smith keeping drives going and the defense
getting some rest could be a good mix for the Ravens.
Why Seattle Might Win: The Seahawks are back home where they are 6-1 on
the season, the only loss being to the New Orleans Saints. After a loss on the
road, the Seahawks won’t lose a game to a four win team. The Seahawks have
gotten great games throughout the month of November and December from Matt
Hasselbeck (last week notwithstanding). Against this Ravens defense, he should
have success. The Ravens are 23rd in the league in passing yards per
game 224.8 yards per game, so expect #8 to have a strong game to make up for
last week’s bust.
Who to Watch: Smith obviously will have the spotlight squarely on him in
this game, but honestly, what pressure is really on the rookie? If he flames
out, well, he’s a rookie. If he has a strong game, that’s splendifilous. Is
that a word? Well, it is if Smith has a Michigan type game. He better find
Patrick Kerney coming off the edge, though, to have ultimate success.
What Will Happen: The Seahawks aren’t about to let a four-win team fly
out west, punk them in their own yard with a rookie quarterback. Especially
after the loss last week to Carolina. Hasselbeck will throw for 300+ yards and
a couple touchdowns in Seattle’s tenth win.
CFN Prediction: Seahawks – 27…Ravens – 10
Line: Seattle -10
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...2
Miami
at New England
4:15 pm CBS December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Do we have to remind you of the history involved every time
the Patriots take the field? And, the irony this week. Two teams in NFL
history have been 14-0 – the 1972 Dolphins and the 2007 Patriots, and the two
current versions meet this week. The Dolphins ruined what would’ve been the
first game ever between an 0-14 team and a 14-0 team, by beating the Ravens in
overtime last weekend. So, the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers can pop the cork on
the champagne, but the 1972 Dolphins still have the champagne on ice as the
Patriots won yet again, even if it wasn’t pretty. The Patriots beat the hapless
Jets by only ten points 20-10, a game in which Tom Brady threw no touchdowns for
the first time all season. 15-0 beckons and the Patriots would like nothing
better than to send another message to the NFL and Miami, in particular.
Why Miami Might Win: The Dolphins are not going to win. No chance. Not
one. Can they play well enough and be competitive for a quarter or so? Sure,
but in December, after the sense of relief experienced last weekend and the
Patriots struggling against the Jets, as Tony Soprano would say “fuhgedaboutit”.
However, the Dolphins got some quality play out of quarterback Cleo Lemon. He
completed 23 of 39 for 315 yards and a touchdown with no picks to lead the
Dolphins to that win. However, not this week.
Why New England Might Win: C’mon, seriously. The Patriots struggled
last week against the Jets in the rain and cold temperatures, especially Tom
Brady, who had his first game without a touchdown. He finished the game 14 of
29 for 140 yards and an interception, but don’t expect a repeat performance this
weekend against the Dolphins secondary. The Dolphins are fourth in the NFL in
pass defense, but that’s because the defense can’t stop anyone on the ground,
last in the NFL (155.9 yards per game). Plus, Brady could slice up the best
defense in the league, not to mention the Dolphins unit.
Who to Watch: When the Jets made it known that Brady and the passing game
wasn’t going to beat them, running back Laurence Maroney took over, piling up
more carries in this game than in any other in his short career. Maroney
finished with 104 yards on 26 carries, including one touchdown and don’t be
totally surprised to see #39 tack on the carries against the worst rush defense
in the NFL.
What Will Happen: The Patriots will turn it up another notch or three
this week against the Dolphins. Brady will bounce back and have…you know what,
you know how this one is going to go.
CFN Prediction: Patriots – 51…Dolphins – 17
Line: New England -21.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4.5
Washington
at Minnesota
8:15 pm NBC December 23, 2007
Why to Watch: Of all the games this weekend, this one has the most at
stake. The Vikings are 8-6 after beating the Bears 20-13 at home last Monday
night and if the season ended today, the Vikings would be in the playoffs.
However, the season does not end today and the Redskins are still alive in this
chase as well. At 7-7, the Redskins can not only pull even with the Vikings,
but own the all-too-important head-to-head tiebreaker. The Redskins shut down
the Giants on Sunday night, beating Eli Manning and company 22-10 to keep the
playoff heart beating. At least for another week. A Vikings win will all but
seal the deal for a playoff berth.
Why Washington Might Win: How good was the ‘Skins defense on Sunday
night? Well, how about ‘very’? Brandon Jacobs pounded on them for 130 yards on
the ground, but Manning was held to 184 yards passing on 18 of 53 passing.
That’s not a misprint. 18 of 53! The Redskins are tenth in the league in total
defense, giving up a paltry 317.0 yards per game.
Why Minnesota Might Win: Sure, the Redskin defense is one of the ten
best in the league, but as mentioned above, Jacobs ran for 130 yards on the
‘Skins defense and, well, let’s put it this way if the big fella ran for that
much, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor might hit the 200 yard mark this week.
The Vikings running game has piled up yardage against every other defense in the
league, hence the number one offense in the league (169.6 yards per game).
Who to Watch: Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has improved throughout the
season but took a step back last Monday night against the Bears. He threw three
interceptions with no touchdowns against a Bears defense that is a shell of what
it was last season. For this team to take another step forward, perhaps win a
key game against Washington or move on in the playoffs, the Vikings will need an
improved performance from Jackson.
What Will Happen: The Vikings will get that improved performance from
Jackson on Sunday night, in addition to a blockbuster night for Taylor and
Peterson. The two will run behind the league’s best offensive line all day for
225+ yards, both over 100+ yards, to put the Vikings in the playoffs (well, with
a New Orleans tie or loss).
CFN Prediction: Vikings – 23…Redskins – 17
Line: Minnesota -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...4
Denver
at San Diego
8:00 pm ESPN December 24, 2007
Why to Watch: The Chargers put the nail in the AFC West championship
coffin last week with a 51-14 pasting of Detroit and the Broncos’ 31-13 loss to
the Texans. The Chargers struggled all season long to get consistent
performances from the offense, defense and the special teams, but in December,
the team appears to be hitting its stride. At the right time. The Broncos,
well, this team is far from hitting its stride. For the second consecutive
season, the Broncos will be at home for the playoffs. However, nothing will
please the Broncos more than beating the Chargers on their home turf two weeks
before a playoff appearance.
Why Denver Might Win: With nothing to really play for and the pressure
off, the Broncos may actually show up to play on Monday night. The Broncos are
eighth in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging 124.1 yards per game on the ground
and it’s the only real chance that the Broncos have of winning this game.
Selvin Young and company really didn’t get it done in Houston (72 yards
rushing), but against San Diego that must change.
Why San Diego Might Win: For every other reason, really. The Broncos
won’t mail it in for the last two games, but after being eliminated from the
playoff hunt, there’s not much to play for if things start to go south early in
this game. The Broncos have one of the worst run defenses in the league, 29th
to be exact, and next up on the docket is having to face LT, Darren Sproles and
the Charger run game. Ouch. Good luck with that, Broncos defense.
Who to Watch: Bronco tight end Tony Scheffler isn’t a star quite yet, but
he’s on his way. The confident youngster caught a touchdown pass last week
against the Texans, an athletic swan dive to get in the end zone, too. He’s got
40 catches on the year, but has 11 catches the past two weeks. Quarterback Jay
Cutler has found a comfort level with the former Western Michigan star, so
expect Scheffler to have a solid game against the Charger linebackers and/or
safeties.
What Will Happen: The Chargers will make quick work of the Broncos,
riding the wave that crested last week against the Lions. Quarterback Philip
Rivers will be efficient with his 20 throws, but his main task will be handing
off to LT, Sproles and Michael Turner all game long. It’d be nice if this one
could stay a game on into the fourth quarter, but don’t hold your breath.
CFN Prediction: Chargers – 34…Broncos – 13
Line: San Diego -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 A Christmas Story - 1 Frosty Returns)
...3.5