2008 March
Madness -
South
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
East |
Midwest |
West
South Bracket
No. 1 Memphis Tigers –
Conference USA (33-1, 16-0 in CUSA)
Basically:
Memphis made a major statement in its final game of the regular season
when it pasted Conference USA’s second place team, UAB, 94-56 to close
out a tremendous conference season, and then it rolled through the
tournament winning the three games by an average of 19 points per game.
Now its time to prove it can actually beat the big boys. While the
record is impressive and there were great wins over Georgetown and
Gonzaga, the Tigers failed a really big test losing to Tennessee in the
at-the-time battle for No. 1. Even so, John Calipari has created a
potential juggernaut winning by an average margin o 19.7 points per game
with a breathtaking array of offensive talent. An extremely athletic
group that can put points on the board from any spot on the floor, there
are too many options for most teams to deal with led by one of the best
backcourts in America. NBA talent, depth, and just enough experience to
get by, it’s all there for a potential Final Four run.
Strengths: Scoring and quick defense. The Tigers do most things on
both ends of the court at a high level. Their guards can penetrate and
shoot the rock, while the bigs do an excellent job of protecting the
paint and defending the rim. Their relentless defensive pressure forces
a ton of turnovers, and they can take control of a game at any given
moment with the transition game making a close game a blowout in a
flash. Motivation isn’t an issue after getting to the Elite Eight and
losing to Ohio State, and this year’s team is even better.
Weaknesses: The run. Memphis can do a little bit of everything well,
but it tends to fall into a pattern of relying too much on the
three-pointer when it has the talent and the athleticism to do so much
more. Only hitting 35% from three, if the shots aren’t falling, the
offense has a hard time scoring points due to the relatively limited
offensive talent of the big men (at least compared to the guards). While
that’s fine in Conference USA, it doesn’t work in the Sweet 16. Worse
yet, this is a horrendous, horrendous free throw shooting team
hitting just 59% of their attempts. Overall, the biggest issue could be
the schedule; the Tigers were never seriously threatened in conference
play.
Players You Should Care About: Junior guard Chris
Douglas-Roberts is a match-up nightmare that can kill defenses from
beyond the arc or as a streak to the basket any time he has a one-on-one
matchup. Frosh phenom Derrick Rose was a fantastic addition to the
line-up and could be just be the missing ingredient the team needs.
Would Memphis have beaten OSU last year with a player like Rose?
Probably. Big man Joey Dorsey patrols the paint as a great defensive
stopper, and he’ll need to play a prominent role anyone with a good post
threat.
Best Wins: Connecticut 81-70; Georgetown 85-71
Worst
Losses:
Tennessee 66-62
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Knocked out in the third
round. The Tigers are going to finally deal with real teams on a regular
basis and will get knocked around in the Sweet 15 by either Pitt or
Michigan State. Conference USA time is over.
No. 16 UT Arlington
Mavericks
– Southland (21-11, 7-9 in the Southland)
Basically: An also-ran in the Southland Conference after losing
five of seven and seven of 11 down the stretch with an abysmal offense
and no luck, everything changed in a stunning three-game run to the
title. Getting hot at the right time with some key performances from the
stars got the Mavericks to the tournament, and a balanced scoring attack
could make them tough to deal with … for about a half. This isn’t a
talented team and there no wins of note even with an 8-0 start and a
good battle in a loss to Oklahoma State. .
Strengths: Getting to the basket. This might not be a big team,
but it’s ultra-aggressive on the boards and good at making things happen
on the inside. There’s plenty of passing to get the ball to the open
man, and there’s good speed to go up and down the floor to run with just
about anyone. The defense hasn’t had to face many bangers up front, but
it’s still been tough at letting anyone score from close range.
Weaknesses: Shooting. This is a mediocre shooting team from three
and it’s awful on the line connecting on just 66% of their free throw
attempts. The Mavericks win by outhustling everyone on the boards and
making things happen on the move, but there are way too many turnovers,
way too many fouls, and not enough scoring options.
Players You Should Care About: No, UT Arlington can’t shoot free
throws, but that doesn’t count junior forward Anthony Vereen who nailed
13 of 15 in the Southland title game and closed out a great tournament
with 25 points. At 6-7 and 230 pounds, he’s a load on the inside and
great at forcing fouls. If he’s getting into an offensive groove, he’s a
force for the offense to work around. 6-9, 260-pound senior Jermaine
Griffin is the banger who averages 7.2 rebounds per game and hits 64% of
his attempts. He’s not going to take any wild shots, but he’ll clean up
on the inside.
Best Wins: at Stephen F. Austin 75-65; Northwestern State 82-79
(Southland Championship)
Worst Losses: at Central Arkansas 70-68 OT; Texas State 97-86
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: It's been a nice run
to get here, but Memphis will double up the Mavericks in one of the
biggest blastings in 1-16 history.
No. 8 Mississippi
State Bulldogs
– SEC (12-4, 22-10 in the SEC)
Basically: Call it addition by subtraction as four players
decided to transfer off of last year’s decent team while this year’s MSU
squad turned out to be better. With a tremendous inside defense, led by
the combination of Jarvis Varnado, an extraordinary shot blocker, and
Charles Rhodes, opposing teams have a nightmare of a time getting easy
baskets. After a rough start with a 5-5 record, the Bulldogs turned it
on winning nine in a row while getting better and better in SEC play.
Everything was going well, and then came the stunning SEC semifinal loss
to a Georgia team that played an overtime game earlier that same day. .
Strengths: Interior defense. MSU is second in the nation in
blocked shots, led by Varnado’s 4.8 per game, and is second in field
goal percentage allowed with opponents hitting fewer than 38% of their
shots. An up-tempo offense will have plenty of chances for points, but
in a half-court set it’s next to impossible to make anything happen
inside on the Bulldogs on a consistent basis.
Weaknesses: Free throws. MSU is great at limiting its fouls and
not giving away cheap points, but it’s among the worst in America on the
line hitting a mere 64% of its free throws. Defensively, the key is
forcing opponents to have to set up their offense and try making things
happen from the outside, but there are too many easy points allowed in
transition and too many turnovers.
Players You Should Care About: Jamont Gordon and Charles Rhodes
combine to average around 34 points and 14 rebounds per game forming one
of the SEC’s premier inside-outside tandems. The 6-8 Rhodes has been
dominant on both ends of the court over the second half of the season,
highlighted by a 30-point performance in the win over Auburn, while
Gordon is the three-point gunner who has been a 20-point-a-night
performer over the last month with a great string of 20+ games just when
the offense needed him the most. He’ll have his off games from behind
the arc, hitting just one of seven in the SEC tournament, but the
Bulldog offense is tough to stop when he’s on.
Best Wins: Kentucky 69-64; Arkansas 80-74
Worst Losses: at Southern Illinois 64-49; Miami Univ. 67-60
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Out in the first round.
Oregon is a bad matchup for a Bulldog team that likes to win on defense.
The offense won't be there to contend with the Duck three point shooting
barrage, and the loss in the free throw battle will prove costly.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks
– Pac 10 (18-13, 9-9 in the Pac 10)
Basically: Call this a nod to the strength, or at least the
perceived strength, of the Pac 10 as Oregon was ice-cold over the second
half of the season losing eight of 11 during a vital stretch from
mid-January to the end of February. One of the nation’s best shooting
teams, it’s able to keep up with most of the top offenses and was able
to do just enough to get by Arizona State and Arizona to get off the
bubble and into the tournament. While there isn’t enough overall talent
to make a deep run, the three-point shooting is good enough to
potentially make the Sweet 16 if all the key parts are working.
Strengths: Bombing away. The Ducks hit an incredible 40% of their
three-point attempts and has a lights out shooter in 6-9 forward Maarty
Leunen, who makes 56% of his shots, to annoy just about any defense.
With five excellent scoring options, good ball movement, and just enough
production on the boards, the points should come in bunches.
Weaknesses: Defense. It’s not very good. While this isn’t a soft
team, it’s tough on the boards, it’s not good at forcing mistakes on the
perimeter and it allows way, way too many easy shots. With all the
running Oregon does, it gives up just as many layups as it generates.
Players You Should Care About: Luenen is one of the nation’s most
versatile players, able to handle himself at the point, hit from the
outside, and make things happen on the boards leading the team with 9.2
per game. While he’s hardly a huge inside body, he tends to always be
around the ball and is strong coming up with the big pass when needed.
Now he needs to catch fire after three average games following a
32-point outing, helped by hitting seven of eight from three, in a late
win over Oregon State.
Best Wins: at Kansas State 80-77 OT; Stanford 71-66
Worst Losses: at Oakland 68-62; at Washington 78-70
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Knocked out by
Memphis in the second round. The Ducks will make the Tigers earn it in
what should be a wild high-scoring shootout. There will be a few minutes
midway through the second half when Oregon might be thinking upset, and
then MU will go on a run to end it.
No. 5 Michigan State
Spartans
– Big Ten (25-8, 12-6 in the Big Ten)
Basically: The expectations were through the roof for a Spartan
team that was supposed to be head coach Tom Izzo’s strongest in years.
Despite a tough early loss to UCLA, a 14-1 start kept the Big Ten
buzzing that this would be the team to beat. Thanks to a five game
winning streak in mid-January, that perception didn’t change even after
a 43-36 loss to Iowa. However, as good as MSU has been at times, and as
versatile as it is, it can go into the tank in a hurry on the wrong
night. Who losses to Penn State by 11? Wisconsin put on a clinic in a
57-42 win in Madison to show just how wrong the preseason
prognosticators were. This is still MSU and it’s still Izzo, so there’s
always a chance for a sleeper run, but it’ll be a stunner if there’s not
a crashing thud once the Sweet 16 comes around; the consistency simply
isn’t there.
Strengths: Shooting and rebounding. They go hand in hand as the
Spartans are terrific on the offensive glass and get a boatload of easy
second chance points. The offense is outstanding at moving the ball
around and is fantastic at making the extra pass to find the open man.
This is an unselfish team that’s stingy at turning over the ball.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. Neitzel is one of the nation’s best
bombers, but he’s it; this isn’t a consistent three-point shooting team
by any stretch. As Wisconsin showed so painfully, if Neitzel gets shut
down, or is off, there isn’t another consistent three point threat to
change things around. As Wisconsin also showed in the Big Ten
tournament, even when Neitzel is on, that doesn’t guarantee anything. A
good defensive team that doesn’t turn the ball over is the last thing
MSU wants to see.
Player You Should Care About: On many preseason All-American
lists, Neitzel was expected to build off a huge junior season and become
an automatic 20-point scorer every night. It hasn’t happened. A marked
man, he’s been fine, but he’s had a harder time creating his own shot
and he’s had a tough time getting open as easily as he did last year. On
the positive side, all the attention paid to Neitzel has opened things
up for everyone else, like Raymar Morgan. The 6-7, 220-pound sophomore
is a strong inside scoring presence and a great rebounder.
Best Wins: Texas 78-72; Indiana 103-74
Worst Losses: at Iowa 43-36; at Penn State 85-76
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the second
round to Pitt. If all the parts are working and Drew Neitzel is on fire,
MSU has the makeup to get to the Elite Eight. However, this is too
inconsistent a team to go far.
No. 12
Temple Owls
– Atlantic 10 (21-12, 11-5 in the Atlantic 10)
Basically: Despite getting hot over the last few weeks of the
season, Temple appeared NIT bound unless it was able to make a stunning
run through the Atlantic 10 tournament. Helped by missing Xavier, the
Owls were able to pull it off with a 69-64 win over St. Joe’s to finish
seven straight wins and their first berth in the tournament since 2001.
Led by guard Dionte Christmas and with plenty of smart sharp-shooting,
they’re peaking at just the right time after a 6-8 start and a date with
Xavier appearing too daunting to overcome. But with a blowout win over
the Musketeers, the team woke up and was nasty the rest of the way.
Strengths: Shooting. While this isn’t a high-powered offense, it
doesn’t miss. Helped by good passing and few turnovers, the Owls hit 47%
of their shots, 74% from the field, and aren’t bad from three. There
isn’t a lot of size, outside of seven-footer Sergio Olmos, but there are
plenty of blocked shots and lots of inside scoring.
Weaknesses: Rebounding. For a team that can get to the basket
without much of a problem, and for all the good shooting, there’s not a
whole bunch of rebounding. Most bizarre for John Chaney’s old team, the
defense isn’t anything special. Head coach Fran Dunphy has done a great
job, but his team can be scored on.
Players You Should Care About: Christmas, a 6-5 junior forward,
was one of the A-10’s best players last year scoring 20 points per game,
and then he got even better as a double-digit scorer in every game but
one. Oddly enough, his worst game of the year came in the A-10
semi-final blowout over Charlotte scoring just six points, but if he’s
not on in the big tournament, the Owls might be bounced early. Helping
out will be senior guard Mark Tyndale, a decent three-point shooter who
was a monster on the boards in the A-10 tournament making 34 in three
games.
Best Wins: Xavier 78-59; St. Joe’s 69-64 (Atlantic 10
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Charleston 79-76; Fordham 78-76
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out right away. If
you can't rebound well, you can't beat Michigan State.
No. 4 Pitt Panthers
– Big East (26-9, 10-8 in the Big East)
Basically: The Panthers were one of the nation’s hottest teams to
start the season going 11-0 with the high point a 65-64 overtime win
over Duke. Nine days later came an 80-55 clunker at Dayton and the
mediocrity kicked in from there with nine losses in the following 21
games with only one win of note, a 69-60 victory over Georgetown. And
then came the Big East tournament as the Panthers won four games in four
days, closing out with a title victory over the Hoyas. The defense is
top-notch, but when the offense goes in the tank, it really stinks, and
it’s just that inconsistency that makes this a hit-or-miss tournament
team. This is a lunchpail team that needs to keep games in the high 60s
and low 70s, and if its defense isn’t clamping down on the gunners,
it’ll be an early exit.
Strengths: Defense and efficiency. Three aren’t many turnovers,
there’s plenty of passing, and it’s one-and-done on the defensive boards
with few second shots allowed. For a team that relies so much keeping
things close, there aren’t a lot of fouls committed. Yeah, the offense
is just mediocre enough for Pitt to get beaten in the first round, but
if it can survive a game or two, there’s just enough defensive pressure
to shock some big name.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. Forget about it, and it’s not like
the Panthers have Aaron Gray inside to feed the ball to. The offense
relies on a pair of tough forwards, Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, to set
the tone, and while that’s usually fine, there’s no consistent three
point threat to worry about unless Ronald Ramon stays as hot as he’s
been over the last five games. Getting back into games is hard for this
offense.
Players You Should Care About: Blair is a big, beefy inside
presence who’s a better midrange shooter than he looks. His game is
mostly about rebounding averaging 9.5 per game, and it’ll be his job to
prevent second chance points. Young might not have the heft of Blair,
but he’s a good inside scorer who gives the team consistent points.
Oddly enough, the one game he was held to under ten points was in the
regular season win against Georgetown.
Best Wins: at Duke 65-64; Georgetown 69-60 & 75-65 (Big East
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Dayton 80-55; Rutgers 77-64
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Elite Eight before
losing to Texas. Everything's jelling at the right time. The same mental
toughness, and power on the boards, that took the team to the Big East
title will shine through against Memphis IF the game doesn't get into
any sort of a shootout.
No. 13 Oral Roberts
Golden Eagles
– Summit (24-8, 16-2 in the Summit)
Basically: In a shocker of a season, ORU is getting back to the
tournament despite losing its best two players, Ken Tutt and Caleb
Green. With gunners like Moses Ehambe and Robert Jarvis bombing away,
the Golden Eagles rebounded from a rough late stretch to be among the
most dangerous sleeper teams. An 11-game winning streak in the middle of
the year helped define the season, at least so far, but few close losses
to IUPUI and North Dakota State showed some vulnerability. This is a
young, deep team with just enough size to get by, and it’s not afraid of
the road playing away from home for a six-game stretch in the middle of
the year.
Strengths: Tough interior defense. While ORU quickly became known
for its ability beyond the arc, it was the defense that got the job done
with a slew of blocked shots from Shawn King, good defensive rebounding,
and just enough pressure to keep the scoring low. The D is aggressive
without committing too many fouls and is good at daring offenses to
score from deep.
Weaknesses: Free throws and perimeter pressure. There aren’t many
steals and not enough forced turnovers, but the biggest problem for a
defensive team that keeps games close is the free throw shooting making
a mere 68%. For a team that shoots the three, there’s just not enough
scoring with the deliberate style of play.
Players You Should Care About: The 6-6 Ehambe has had his
moments. Insanely inconsistent, he didn’t score in the Summit semifinal
win over IPFW, and then he went off for 25 against IUPUI connecting on
seven of 13 three pointers. Earlier in the year he made nine of 13 from
three in a 40-point effort against Western Illinois, but he made one of
ten threes in a loss to Creighton. ORU doesn’t have a lot of weapons, so
if Ehambe isn’t on, it’s going to be a quick tournament.
Best Wins: at Oklahoma State 74-59; IUPUI 71-64 (Summit
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Texas A&M-CC 86-81 OT; at North Dakota State
68-55
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: ORU is like Pitt,
only not as good. It'll get knocked out in a good first round battle.
No. 2 Texas
Longhorns
– Big 12 (28-6, 13-3 in the Big 12)
Basically: The Longhorns lost Kevin Durant and just kept on
rolling. Of course things would be better if the current Seattle
Supersonic was still gunning it in burnt orange, but Rick Barnes’ club
has gone on to become one of the hottest teams going into the
tournament, even with a strange road loss to Texas Tech in early March.
This is a lightning quick, guard-oriented team with just enough inside
muscle to get by, but it’ll live and die by what it does in the
backcourt. A big, brawny, rough-and-tumble offense with a big backcourt
could give the Longhorns problems, but anyone with a mediocre guard
tandem will get run off the court. However, even though it’s all about
the guards …
Strengths: Interior defense. 6-10 Connor Atchley is a premier
shot blocker and 6-7 Damion James is a beast on the boards, and everyone
is good at pressuring and contesting everything. Teams are hitting fewer
than 40% of their shots on the pressure defense, and getting transition
points is as tough as finding an Oklahoma jersey in Austin. The Texas
guards simply don’t turn the ball over.
Weaknesses: Passing. Considering the guards aren’t all that big,
there should probably be more ball movement. Instead, this is a
break-them-down, one-on-one offense with quick players who get to the
basket or create their own outside shots. The rebounding is good enough
to overcome the misses.
Players You Should Care About: D.J Augustin and A.J. Abrams might
be undersized, but they can move. The left-handed Augustin is great at
finding his way to the basket and has found his shot after spending most
of last year setting up Durant for his. While still a top assist man,
Augustin has done a great job of taking control of games when needed, as
opposed to last year when Durant took care of that. Abrams is a pure
shooter who’s automatic on the line and deadly from three. He cooled off
a bit late in the regular season, but he’s the type of weapon who can
change games with just a few shots.
Best Wins: Tennessee 97-78; at UCLA 63-61; Kansas 72-69
Worst Losses: at Missouri 97-84; at Texas A&M 80-63
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Final Four before
losing to UCLA. Even if Memphis gets to the Elite Eight, the Texas
guards will be able to match up well. The key might be getting by
Stanford and its interior game in the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 15 Austin Peay
Governors
– Ohio Valley (24-10, 16-4 in the OVC)
Basically: Austin Peay was the best team in the Ohio Valley
Conference in 2007 but lost in the tournament final to Eastern Kentucky
on a late shot. There were no such problems this season as a veteran
Governor team rolled through the regular season and ripped through
Tennessee State 82-64 for the school’s sixth appearance in the
tournament. Three seniors and a junior are among the top scorers with
five players averaging double-digits. This is a balanced, experienced
group that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. It’s not special, but it’s
not going to go out quietly.
Strengths: Steals and holding on to the ball. The Governors were
second in the nation in steals taking away ten a game, and considering
the overall defense is abysmal, generating turnovers away on a regular
basis is a must. With a good offense with several options, it doesn’t
turn it over too often.
Weaknesses: Defense. If the Govs face a decent to above-average
shooting team, or a team with some scoring punch up front, forget about
it. Inside and out, opponents have been able to shoot at will on the
porous defense with little inside presence and no shot blocking threat.
The biggest issue will be on the defensive boards giving up way too many
second chances.
Players You Should Care About: Is Drake Reed going to be back to
his old self? The team’s leading scorer was suspended for a game in late
February and was find in the final four games, but he wasn’t quite as
hot. One of the team’s best rebounders as well as one of the few inside
scoring options, he needs to be a big factor. If he’s not on, there are
other options, like guard Todd Babington, the star of the OVC
Championship with 24 points who turned into the team’s hottest scorer
down the stretch.
Best Wins: Belmont 71-56 & 93-84; Tennessee State (OVC
Championship) 82-64
Worst Losses: at SE Missouri State 121-116 OT; at Evanston 72-62
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Let's Go Peay will
once again be the most fun chant in the entire tournament. The
Governors' exit will be quick and painless.
No. 7 Miami
Hurricanes
– ACC (22-10, 8-8 in the ACC)
Basically: After a dismal 2007 with major injury issues and
off-the-court problems leading to a 12-20 record and a last place ACC
finish, head coach Frank Haith has turned things around with many of the
players who struggled through the adversity becoming major factors. A
red-hot 12-0 start, legitimized a little bit with a win over Mississippi
State, was halted by a stunning home gaffe to Winthrop. But it was a
mid-January swoon, losing six out of seven games that put the Canes
squarely on the bubble. And then came the close wins, beating Virginia
Tech by three, Georgia Tech by one, and then Duke by one to take the
pressure off and get back on the tournament track. This is a flawed
team, getting blasted by Virginia Tech 63-49 in the ACC tournament, but
after last year, anything that happens from here on will be all gravy.
Strengths: The three. Not particularly big, the Canes like to
generate points from the outside with Jack McClinton leading the ACC’s
best three point shooting team. There’s just enough offensive rebounding
to overcome cold streaks, but there aren’t many of them. On outside
shooting along, the Canes could bomb their way to the Sweet Sixteen, or
at the very least, keep up in any shootout.
Weaknesses: Steals. The Canes have a tough defense that’s good on
the inside and aggressive in the half court, but there isn’t much in the
way of forcing turnovers. The defense has been great against mediocre
teams, but most above-average offenses have been able to keep up the
scoring pace without a problem. Considering there have been so many
close games, and everything in the tournament will be tight, Miami has
to win the free throw battle, and considering all the fouls it commits,
that’s not a given against anyone.
Player You Should Care About: McClinton, a 6-1 junior, has been
the catalyst for the offense all season long, and he stepped up his game
in a big way down the stretch highlighted by a 34-point outing in a win
over Virginia. However, when he’s off from three, the offense struggles
with its consistency.
Best Wins: at Mississippi State 64-58; Duke 96-95
Worst Losses: at Boston College 76-66; at NC State 79-77 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Upset in the first
round. St. Mary's is a horrible matchup for the Canes with the Gael
defense just good enough to keep the Miami three point gunners from
exploding.
No. 10 St. Mary’s
Gaels –
West Coast (25-6, 12-2 in the West Coast)
Basically: The Gaels have the nice record and the balanced, tough
defensive team, and now they have to prove they’re the real deal. There
was a win over Drake in early November before it became Drake,
and there was the overtime win over Gonzaga, and then there was … uh,
yeah. There was a 15-point loss at Southern Illinois, a 19-point loss at
Texas, an eight-point loss to Kent State and two losses to San Diego.
Even so, the make-up is there to do some damage with the size of center
Omar Samhan and the scoring pop from Patrick Mills and Diamon Simpson
able to give teams fits.
Strengths: Annoying the heck out of everyone’s offense. Only
Texas and Gonzaga have been able to really get to the Gael defense. With
a nasty inside presence, plenty of blocked shots, and good pressure on
the outside, St. Mary’s is great at getting teams out of their offenses
and keeping them from making plays in transition. There aren’t a lot of
steals, but it’s next to impossible to get an open look or make anything
happen on the inside.
Weaknesses: The free throw line. And here’s the problem. In a
pinch, the Gaels can always make things happen on the inside and draw
the foul. Then it’s to the line where they only hit around 67% of their
attempts, and against the better teams in tournament, if they get past
the first round or two, that has to go up to about 75%.
Players You Should Care About: Samhan, a sophomore, has been a
blocked shot machine since he first came to campus, and now he’s become
a more complete player. However, while he cranked up his offensive
production and has become a stronger rebounder, he disappeared late in
the year only hitting the double-digit scoring mark once in the final
eight games. He needs to be a monster for the Gaels to make a run.
Best Wins: Drake 72-66; Gonzaga 89-85 OT
Worst Losses: at Sothern Illinois 71-56; at San Diego 63-55
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Out in the second round
to Texas. The Gaels won't have enough offense in the bag to get past the
Longhorns, but they'll make the burnt orange fans squirm.
No. 3 Stanford
Cardinal
– Pac 10 (26-7, 13-5 in the Pac 10)
Basically: After a few years of rebuilding, and a blowout loss to
Louisville in the first round of last year’s tournament, the Cardinal is
loaded, especially up front, with the seven-foot brother tandem of Brook
and Robin Lopez leading one of the nation’s most versatile and
productive front lines. Forgetting about a shocking mid-November clunker
to Siena, Stanford has been nasty suffering just two road overtime
losses (Arizona State and UCLA) over a critical 12-game Pac 10 stretch
before running into a USC buzzsaw in the regular season finale. It
played well in the conference tournament before losing to UCLA in the
final. This is a front-loaded team with the guards taking a backseat,
and it could have problems with quicker, more athletic underdogs.
Strengths: Rebounding. With the size up front, helped by 6-8
forward Lawrence Hill cleaning up everything the Lopez brothers don’t
get to, and rebounding production always coming from all five spots on
the floor, the Cardinal is great on both ends when it comes to hitting
the glass. There’s next to no inside production from opposing offenses,
so if a team can’t consistently hit from the outside, or if it doesn’t
do a great job in the fast break, it doesn’t have a chance.
Weaknesses: The guards. Mitch Johnson and Anthony Goods are fine,
but they’re not Final Four caliber guards who’ll force steals and
consistently burn anyone from the outside. Goods is a good three-point
gunner, but he’s the only one. Considering the overall size and the
amount of times everyone gets to the line, the 69% free throw shooting
could be a problem.
Players You Should Care About: The Lopez brothers might be
flat-out weird, as arguably the foremost experts in college basketball
on all things Michael Jackson and Disney, but they’ll also be very, very
rich whenever they choose to turn pro. Brook is the better of the two
with a better scoring sense and sense on the boards, while Robin is a
tough seven-footer who does a little of everything well. Even with all
the attention paid to these two, Lawrence Hill has taken a step out of
the spotlight. Last year’s leading scorer is only averaging nine points
per game, and while he’s been a good rebounder, he hasn’t been the same
player.
Best Wins: USC 52-46; Washington State 75-68
Worst Losses: at Siena 79-67; at Oregon 71-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Knocked out by
Marquette in the second round. Don't look past a Cornell team with the
size up front to make it an interesting 3-14 matchup.
No. 14 Cornell Big
Red – Ivy
League (22-5, 14-0 in the Ivy)
Basically: It’s been either Princeton or Penn for the last 20
years as the Ivy League’s NCAA Tournament representative, but Steve
Donohue’s Big Red ended the run with an undefeated conference regular
season led by its fantastic offense. This is a fun, high-scoring squad
with just enough punch to pull off an upset or two if it gets hot
against a team that doesn’t play disciplined perimeter defense. With 16
straight wins since an 81-67 loss to Duke back in early January, this is
one of the hottest teams entering the tournament and a real live
sleeper. Center Jeff Foote is a seven-footer, but this is a gunning,
guard-oriented attack that will live and die on the outside shot.
Strengths: Shooting. The Big Red was sixth in the nation hitting
49% of its shots while also ranking sixth in three-point shooting and
fifth in free throw percentage. This is a smart offense that’s great at
moving the ball around to find the open man. With enough bombers to get
back in any game in a hurry, there could be an interesting in-game run
or two to deal with.
Weaknesses: Defense. Even with all the guards playing such a big
role, the Big Red isn’t great at pressuring the ball and forcing
mistakes. This is an average rebounding team that’ll get shoved around
by anyone with a little bit of strength and power up front, and even
with Foote in the middle, opposing offenses don’t have much of a problem
scoring inside.
Players You Should Care About: Junior guard Adam Gore was on his
way to a special Ancient Eight career after starting out with a strong
freshman campaign and hanging 20 in the opening game of 2007 against
Northwestern, but he suffered a torn ACL and missed the rest of his
sophomore season. The gunner has been fine this year, but he hasn’t
quite been the same averaging 10.2 points per game, and for a
six-footer, he’s been an average passer. However, he can hit from three,
as can Ryan Wittman, son of former Indiana star, Randy, and double-digit
scorer Louis Dale.
Best Wins: at Brown 75-64; Brown 74-65
Worst Losses: Colgate 76-73; at Bucknell 88-75
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the first
round. The Big Red will hang with the Cardinal for about 30 minutes
before a big Cardinal run ends the fun.
No. 6 Marquette
Warriors
– Big East (24-9, 11-7 in the Big East)
Basically: After getting knocked out in the first round of the
last two NCAA tournaments, this has been a well-motivated team all
season long, but despite a great early win at Wisconsin it’s had issues
on the road against the good teams. This is Tom Crean’s best squad in
the last few years with veteran starters, a nasty defense, and good
scoring balance. Even though there’s no Dwyane Wade who can carry the
Warriors deep, getting out of the first round shouldn’t be a problem and
getting to the Sweet Sixteen is an attainable goal, but anything more
would be a slight shock.
Strengths: Defense. You can’t win in the Big East without a
strong defense, and Marquette had one of the best when it came to
forcing turnovers and pressuring the guards. Opponents averaged a mere
41% from the field and got picked off time and again by Jerel McNeal and
the Warrior backcourt, so any guard-oriented team could have major
problems running its normal offense.
Weaknesses: Fouls. This might be an effective defense, and an
ultra-aggressive one, but it commits a lot of fouls. A LOT of fouls, to
the tune of around 21 per game. The Warriors are good at getting to the
basket to draw fouls and get to the line, but it almost always loses the
free throw shooting battle based on sheer volume. They lost to Pitt in
the Big East tournament by six and had six fewer free throw attempts.
While this is a decent rebounding team, it’s not an elite one and it
could have issues with anyone with a big, athletic front court.
Players You Should Care About: Not only is McNeal one of the
nation’s best defensive guards, he’s also one of the Big East’s best
all-around offensive players. The team’s leader in scoring and assists,
as well as a great rebounder, he can do it all. McNeal’s running mate,
junior Dominic James, is only 5-11, but he’s tough, can score, and is
the team’s leading assist man. While he takes too many bad shots, he’s a
strong point guard and leader.
Best Wins: at Wisconsin 81-76; Notre Dame 92-66
Worst Losses: at Connecticut 89-73; at Syracuse 87-72
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16. It'll be
defense vs. defense in the first round against Kentucky, and Marquette's
is better. While there will be a problem putting the Lopez brothers on
the line in the second round, the Warriors will upset Stanford.
No. 11 Kentucky
Wildcats –
SEC (18-12, 12-4 in the SEC)
Basically: Billy Gillespie came over from Texas A&M with plenty
of fanfare and excitement, but his first year was a mega-disappointment
with an ugly 7-9 start to get the bluegrass faithful grumbling. But the
Wildcats turned things around in a hurry with a great SEC regular season
finishing with a nice 12-4 record helped by a streak of nine wins in
ten. However, the Wildcats went right back on the bubble with an
overtime loss to Georgia, one of the worst teams in the SEC before the
tournament began, in a quirky overtime game. Even with all the ups and
downs, this is a tough, well-coached team that’s good enough to win two
games on its defense. However, this isn’t your normal Kentucky type of
monster that’s good enough to make a big run.
Strengths: Defense. It’s a Gillespie coached team, so it’s all
about defense, defense, defense. The Wildcats held opposing teams to
under 40% shooting and were great at blocking shots and forcing
mistakes. The offense fed off the errors and did a great job of getting
to the basket for easy points.
Weaknesses: Three point shooting. The Rick Pitino era is long,
long gone. UK makes its threes, but it doesn’t take a lot of them. The
offense revolves around getting the ball inside and taking the high
percentage shots, but it’s not made up to get into a three point
contest. Considering defense is at a premium, UK has too much of a
problem turning the ball over and allowing easy points.
Players You Should Care About: This is a three-pronged attack
with Joe Crawford, Patrick Patterson and Ramel Bradley all able to carry
the offense at times. Crawford got red-hot late in the year averaging 25
points per game over the final three. While he’s a decent rebounder,
he’s the team’s three-point gunner. Patterson is the big inside presence
who has to be a monster on the glass, while Bradley is a good outside
shooter who does a little of everything well.
Best Wins: Vanderbilt 79-72 OT; Tennessee 72-66
Worst Losses: George Washington 84-68; at Vanderbilt 93-52
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: On the bubble coming
in, Kentucky will have to hear about it from all the NITers ... and its
own fan base who don't take kindly to getting bounced in the first
round.
