2008 March
Madness - East
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
Midwest |
South |
West
East Bracket
No. 1 North Carolina
Tar Heels
– ACC (32-2, 14-2 in the ACC)
Basically: The machine has reloaded. While there’s not the NBA
talent of the 2005 national champion juggernaut, this year’s North
Carolina team has the makeup to be just as good in the tournament and
will be the odds-on favorite to win it all. Had point guard Ty Lawson
not suffered a sprained ankle early in a win over Florida State, the Tar
Heels would’ve likely beaten Duke the following week and the aura
surrounding them would be even more imposing. As if winning the ACC
regular season and tournament titles weren’t enough. With toughness,
speed, and sheer offensive firepower triggered by a breathtaking
transition game, it’ll take an up-tempo team on its hottest night to
keep Roy Williams from getting to the Final Four.
Strengths: Putting the ball in the basket. One of the nation’s
best shooting teams, helped by tremendous inside play and several
putbacks on offensive rebounds, the Tar Heels hit close to half their
shots. Second in the nation in scoring, averaging over 90 points per
game, the production mostly comes from close range. The guards get to
the basket without a problem, and there’s Tyler Hansbrough, who puts up
over 23 a game, doing all the dirty work on the inside. The key to
beating UNC is winning the war on the glass; good luck with that.
Everyone hits the boards hard on the nation’s best rebounding team, and
there are four scoring options to deal with.
Weaknesses: Defense. It’s good at pressuring the ball and forcing
mistakes, but it gives up points in bunches. That’s mostly because the
offense is strong enough to simply outbomb everyone, but this isn’t
quite the lock-down D that can come up with consistent big stops in
tight tournament games. Offensively, this isn’t a big three-point
shooting attack, partly because it doesn’t have to be. That’s not to say
there isn’t scoring power from the outside, hitting the three isn’t much
of a problem, especially from Wayne Ellington, but the gunners just
don’t take a lot of them.
Players You Should Care About: Hansbrough is the Player of the
Year star who sets the tone on the boards and in the low post, and
Ellington and Lawson also get plenty of press, but one of the keys to
the tournament could be Danny Green, a 6-5, junior who’s been a
sparkplug throughout the year and hot down the stretch. While he’s not
consistent enough to be an every game star, when he gets hot, he can
change the momentum.
Best Wins: at Duke 76-68; Clemson 86-81 (ACC Championship)
Worst Losses: Maryland 82-80; Duke 89-78
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Upset in the second
round by Indiana. This is the NCAA tournament; there has to be a big
upset call somewhere (unless you're an ESPN analyst and pick four No. 1s
for the Final Four). The Tar Heels would've lost the ACC title game if
Clemson actually believed it could win and are playing like a team just
begging to get tagged.
No. 16 Coppin State Eagles
– MEAC (16-20, 7-9 in the MEAC)
Basically: There was a time not
all that long ago when Coppin State
dominated the MEAC as the conference
favorite seemingly every year. Not this
year. With 20 losses, the Eagles are the
worst team to ever make the NCAA
tournament, but they’re also among the
hottest teams in the country. After
starting out 3-13 and 4-19 (let that
sink in for a moment), they got on a
roll winning eight in a row and 12 of
their last 13 closing out with MEAC
tournament wins over Hampton, Norfolk
State, and Morgan State, the three best
teams in the league.
Strengths: Winning tight games.
How unbelievable has the CSU late-season
run been? The last five wins have come
be a total of seven points and ten of
the 16 wins have been by six points or
fewer. There’s absolutely no size, but
this is a quick bunch with guard that
force backcourts to make mistakes.
Weaknesses: Playing basketball.
Out of 328 teams, CSU is 327th
in three-pointers made (there’s no
outside game) and 314th in
field goal percentage (there’s no inside
game). There’s no passing, no inside
presence whatsoever, and everyone cleans
up on the boards against the miniscule
front line. The defense isn’t horrible,
and it’s aggressive, but it could be an
all-timer world of bad if the Eagles get
out of the play-in game.
Players You Should Care About:
Senior Tywain McKee is a 6-2, 182-pound
gunner who has been the team’s most
dangerous scorer from game one. The only
outside threat, he put the team on his
back in the MEAC tournament hitting nine
of 13 three pointers in the three games
while scoring 26 against Norfolk State
and 33 against Morgan State. He’s used
to being the focus of everyone’s
defensive gameplan and he has still been
effective.
Best Wins: Hampton 75-74 OT;
Morgan State 62-60 (MEAC Championship)
Worst Losses: at Hawaii 79-58; at
Howard 73-69 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: The 65th best team in
a 65 team tournament will get knocked out by a deep Mount St. Mary's
team.
No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
– Northeast (18-14, 11-7 in the
Northeast)
Basically: The fourth best team
in the Northeast Conference, it managed
to get hot at the right time winning its
final five games including the league
title with a 68-55 win on Sacred Heart.
A good, veteran team that was predicted
to be among the preseason favorites to
win the championship, it lost its first
four games of the year and struggled
through the first part of the conference
season only to keep improving and get
hot at the right time. The defense is
the key as it’s solid inside and tough
on the perimeter, while the offense has
been timely and consistent over the
second part of the season.
Strengths: Depth. There’s decent
size for a Northeast Conference team
with plenty of blocks, rebounding from
everywhere, and nine players that can
step in and play. While Chris Vann and
Jeremy Goode are the scorers, everyone
does a little bit of everything with
nine players averaging over two rebounds
per game. The guards make things go, but
the big forwards and seven-foot center
Jason Loughry help the defensive
interior.
Weaknesses: Rebounding. Yeah,
everyone gets on the glass, but there
isn’t any one top boarder considering
the decent size up front. The
Mountaineers get outrebounded by just
about everyone, but the biggest problem
is on the free throw line. They can
shoot, but they commit way too many
fouls with their aggressive D.
Players You Should Care About:
Senior Chris Vann and sophomore Jeremy
Goode make the engine go, but they could
have problems with bigger backcourts.
The 6-0 Vann only managed four points in
the title game and after going for
double-digit points in ten straight
games, he hasn’t hit the mark in four of
the last six games. On the flip side,
Goode, the team’s top passer, has been
red hot scoring 23 points in the
semi-final game against Robert Morris
and has gone for 13 or more in six of
the final seven games.
Best Wins: Winthrop 64-59; Sacred
Heart (NEC Championship)
Worst Losses: Farleigh Dickinson
65-62; LaSalle 66-63
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: The Mountaineers will
get through the play-in game only to get obliterated by North Carolina.
No. 8 Indiana
Hoosiers
– Big Ten (25-7, 14-4 in Big Ten)
Basically: Talk about dealing with adversity, Indiana lost its
head coach, Kelvin Sampson, and went though a Bloomington-style soap
opera all because he made a few bazillion improper extra phone calls to
recruits. That bump in the road likely cost the Hoosiers the regular
season Big Ten title, and the league’s most talented team never really
recovered, bowing out early to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament on a
miraculous last-second shot. Even so, the pieces are there to make a
deep run. Extremely versatile, there’s excellent rebounding across the
board, good inside scoring, and just enough of an outside shooting
presence to get by. However, for all the skill and with two superstars
in D.J. White and Eric Gordon, the team underachieved, especially down
the stretch with a blowout loss at Michigan State and a stunning gag at
Penn State late in the regular season.
Strengths: Rebounding. White is a monster on the glass while the
entire starting lineup is strong at getting to the ball. Teams have to
pay so much attention to White that Jamarcus Ellis, Jordan Crawford and
Lance Stemier have more room to roam and can be effective on both ends
of the floor. IU is also fantastic on the line, averaging 77%; the last
thing anyone wants to face deep in the tournament is a team that can hit
free throws.
Weaknesses: IU relies way too much on simply trying to outscore
teams. When you have an NBA talent like Gordon and a major inside
presence like White, putting points on the board isn’t a problem, but
the D has had a habit of going bye-bye in key stretches. There isn’t
much of an outside shooting threat to worry about, and there are way too
many turnovers.
Player You Should Care About: If you haven’t seen Gordon yet, get
a glimpse before he’s off to the next level faster than Illinois can say
decommit. After all the controversy surrounding his change of heart by
choosing the Hoosiers over the Illini, Gordon lived up to the hype
becoming the rare pure scorer who isn’t selfish. Lightning quick and a
phenomenal finisher, he can get to the basket any time he wants.
Best Wins: Michigan State 80-61; Purdue 77-68
Worst Losses: at Michigan State 103-74; at Penn State 68-64 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16 loss to
Notre Dame. Indiana has played like a team with the pressure of the
world on its shoulders, but don't forget, it lost the Big Ten regular
season title, for the most part, on a banked three by Wisconsin's Brian
Butch and got knocked out of the Big Ten tournament on an all-timer of a
shot by Minnesota. D.J. White will outplay Tyler Hansbrough, and Eric
Gordon will show why he's the best NBA prospect on the floor in a
shocking upset of North Carolina. Then the pressure will be back on and
the Hoosiers will fold on the second weekend.
No. 9 Arkansas
Razorbacks
– SEC (22-11, 9-7 in the SEC)
Basically: In his first year at the helm, John Pelphrey has
pulled off a great season even with an SEC title loss to a dead-legged
Georgia team that had to play three games in just 30 hours. However, the
Hogs earned a spot in the tournament with a 92-91 thriller over
Tennessee in the semifinals that ended all the bubble talk. There were
big problems before the big finishing kick losing five of seven over a
four-week stretch late in the year, and with no real wow non-conference
wins, this wasn’t a lock if it wasn’t for a trip to the league’s title
game. The SEC just isn’t that good this year, but for Pelphrey and a
program looking to restore the glory, getting into the show will do just
fine for now.
Strengths: Getting big. Few teams can throw out big man after big
man like Arkansas with seven-foot shot blocker a strong last line of
defense, when he actually gets on the court, and 6-10 bangers Michael
Washington Steven Hill, and most importantly, Darian Townes doing a
great job on the inside. Great on the boards and tough in half court
sets, if an offense isn’t running wild like Tennessee, it’s hard to get
easy points.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting and mistakes. While the Hogs are
great at scoring inside and wonderful in the transition game, they don’t
make many three pointers and they give the ball away way too often. 67%
free throw shooting might be an Achilles heel if there’s any sort of
advancement.
Players You Should Care About: With leading scorer Sonny Weems
going MIA on the court over the last few games, others have had to pick
up the slack, primarily sophomore guard Patrick Beverley. While only 6-1
and 180 pounds, he’s a slippery rebounder who went on a ridiculous
mid-season stretch pulling down double-digit boards in six out of seven
games. He struggled from three in the SEC tournament, but he has the
potential put up points in a big hurry.
Best Wins: Vanderbilt 81-75; Tennessee 92-91
Worst Losses: at Providence 67-51; Appalachian State 74-67
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Loss to Indiana in
the first round. IU will outrebound the Hogs on the way to a tough win.
No. 5 Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
– Big East (24-7, 14-4 in the Big East)
Basically: After a 2-2 November start, the Irish was one of the
nation’s hottest teams over the rest of the regular season with the
firepower to blast anyone out of the water. However, there was just
enough inconsistency to prevent a regular season Big East title, and not
enough defense to get past Marquette in the Big East tournament. Led by
the league’s best player this season, Luke Harangody, Notre Dame has a
selfless, high-powered offense that’s great at moving the ball around
and is tremendous on the glass, but the big road games were a problem
getting annihilated at Marquette and Georgetown and losing in February
at Connecticut and Louisville. While there’s decent talent, the whole is
better than the sum of the parts, even with a player like Harangody.
Strengths: Assists. The nation’s leader in assists throughout the
year, averaging around 19 per game, the Irish offense always seems to
find the open man, especially for the outside shot. Along with being one
of the most efficient teams in the country, with few turnovers and not
that many fouls, it’s also one of the best shooting offenses around
hitting 41% from beyond the arc and a tremendous 74% on the line.
Weaknesses: The defense is no big deal. It usually doesn’t matter
since the offense is explosive enough to make up for the defensive
issues, but a decent opposing offense should have few problems scoring
well over 70 points. Inside the Irish is fine defensively, but the
guards are merely adequate at pressuring the ball. There will be big
problems with attacks that can do a little of everything well.
Players You Should Care About: It begins and ends with Harangody.
While Kyle McAlarney is one of the tournament’s most dangerous outside
bombers, and Rob Kurz is a glass-eating inside presence, it’s Harangody
who needs to be the star in every game. Always a tough inside presence
who has no problems drawing fouls, he’s turned into a better all-around
offensive force upping his average from 11 points per game last year to
21 while grabbing ten boards per game. While he needs to be fantastic,
it should be noted that the Irish lost to Louisville when he put up 40
and lost to Connecticut when he put up 32; his two biggest scoring games
this season.
Best Wins: Connecticut 73-67; Marquette 86-83
Worst Losses: Baylor 68-64; Georgia Tech 70-69
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Elite Eight ... IF
Indiana pulls off the upset of North Carolina. The Irish don't have the
defense to handle the Tar Heels or Tennessee.
No. 12 George Mason
Patriots
– Colonial (23-10, 12-6 in the Colonial)
Basically: The textbook definition of a Cinderella after its
Final Four run two years ago, George Mason made its way back to the
tournament by winning the CAA Tournament with blowout wins over UNC
Wilmington and William & Mary to earn an automatic spot. The problem has
been consistency with strange, really bad losses to teams like Georgia
State, Delaware and Northeastern, and only one win of note, a November
stunner over Kansas State. With the dangerous motion offense and good,
quirky defense, the pieces are there for an upset, even if the Final
Four is well out of reach this time around without a mega-miracle.
Strengths: Defense. The Scramble Defense doesn’t come up with any
steals, but it bothers everyone for 94-feet and keeps scores low.
Considering how aggressive the Patriots are they don’t commit many
fouls, and offensively, they don’t turn the ball over. They don’t make
mistakes and are great at taking teams out of their gameplans.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. This isn’t a good enough inside
team to match up against the better teams with big front lines, and
there isn’t enough consistent three-point shooting to open things up.
GMU wins by not screwing up, playing tight defense, and sending everyone
to the boards. Any sort of a shootout will mean a loss.
Players You Should Care About: Will Thomas has to play big,
really big. The senior forward averages 10.5 boards per game and has
grown into a better scorer. While Kansas State’s Michael Beasley hung 30
and ten on him, he’s become a monster on the glass and finished the
season with 15 double-doubles. While Thomas has to star on the inside,
senior Folarin Campbell has to keep doing what he’s been doing. After a
good start to the year, he exploded over the second half of the season
without a dog game in the bunch since mid-January. A decent three-point
shooter, his job is to hit from everywhere.
Best Wins: at Kansas State 87-77; William & Mary 68-59 (CAA
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Georgia State 66-64; at Northeastern 70-59
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: There won't be any
miraculous runs this time around.
No. 4 Washington
State Cougars
– Pac 10 (24-8, 11-7 in the Pac 10)
Basically: Head coach Tony Bennett proved his shocking first
season wasn’t a fluke with a nice follow-up campaign finishing third in
the Pac 10 in the regular season and losing to Stanford in the
tournament semifinals. After a relatively easy 14-0 start, legitimized
by a road win over USC, the Cougars lost to at UCLA (no shame there) to
break up the run, and there was an ugly stretch of four losses in five
games, but they held their own down the stretch. All about defense and
ball security, this isn’t an exciting team but it’s good enough to win a
game or two.
Strengths: Defense. By keeping the tempo at a snail’s pace, Wazzu
is usually able to grind away until opponents screw up. While the style
usually keeps both teams in the game, Bennett has the formula working
with few turnovers, keeping the fouls to a minimum, winning the free
throw battle, and keeping the game in the 50s and 60s. .
Weaknesses: Overall athleticism. A solid team with good parts,
it’s had a hard time with the faster, more athletic teams … except for
USC. The Cougars had the Trojans’ number, and they keep every game close
enough to have a shot, but there’s simply not enough raw talent and
there’s not enough firepower to get by the better Sweet 16 caliber
teams. .
Players You Should Care About: For this to work for Wazzu, Taylor
Rochestie has to be hitting. The team’s best shooter went through
midseason lull, and then he caught fire as the season wore on to become
more of a factor and the team’s most dangerous scorer. A good three
point shooter, he has to be on to open things up in the middle. Doing a
little of everything is 6-6 senior Kyle Weaver, a nice scorer, but not
an explosive one, who’s decent on the boards and a strong passer. If
you’re looking for the epitome of Washington State basketball, Weaver’s
it.
Best Wins: at USC 73-58; USC 74-50
Worst Losses: California 69-64; Arizona 65-55
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Second round loss to
Notre Dame. The Cougars will be in trouble against anyone with speed and
firepower, and while Winthrop and Notre Dame are two great early
matchups, the Irish will be too tough on D.
No. 13 Winthrop
Eagles –
Big South (22-11, 10-4 in the Big South)
Basically: With four straight Big South championships, the Eagles
are hardly strangers to the tournament and could be a dangerous first
round Cinderella thanks to a pressure defense that could destroy a
backcourt that’s not stingy with the ball. There’s a good mix of
talented young players and crusty veterans with four seniors among the
top five scorers to go along with the underclassmen who provide the bulk
of the depth. Even with the leadership, consistency has been a problem
with a hit or miss offense depending on the night. Even so, no one’s
going to want to face this defense.
Strengths: Pressure defense. Winthrop has been among the top ten
teams in America in scoring D throughout the year allowing opponents to
hit fewer than 40% of their shots. With all the experience, the Eagles
will hardly be fazed by the bright lights of the tournament and aren’t
going to make the mistakes others will. They’ve been there before and
likely won’t crack under the pressure. The combination of experience and
aggressiveness will make them a tough out.
Weaknesses: Scoring. It’s all about defense with the Eagles, and
it’s sort of by necessity. The offense is efficient, and the shooting
isn’t abysmal, but this isn’t an attack that can get into any sort of a
shootout. Considering any potential upset bid will come in a tight game,
free throws will be an issue. There are 328 D-I teams, and Winthrop is
327th in free throw shooting hitting just 59% of its
attempts.
Players You Should Care About: What scoring punch there is
usually comes from Michael Jenkins and Taj McCullough, two seniors who
average double figures and are among the team’s best rebounders.
Jenkins, a guard, went nuts in the Big South championship win over UNC
Ashville with 33 points as he showed off his improved outside shooting
game. The 6-7 McCullough is tough and quick offensively, and is tough to
keep off the defensive glass.
Best Wins: Georgia Tech 79-73; at UNC-Ashville (Big South
Championship) 66-48
Worst Losses: at Coastal Carolina 50-49; at High Point 62-61
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Loss to Washington
State, but the Eagles will make it a game.
No. 2 Tennessee
Volunteers
– SEC (29-4, 14-2 in the SEC)
Basically: Apparently Tennessee has a men’s team. Coming off a
strong tourney run ended by a gut-wrenching loss to Greg Oden and Ohio
State, the Vols came back with one of the nation’s most exciting teams
and an up-and-down style that made them No. 1 in the country for about
ten minutes. The guard-oriented attack is great at bombing away, great
and running and creating, and great at generating defensive pressure. As
good as it is, Bruce Pearl’s club is small and could have problems with
bigger power teams, and as Arkansas showed in a 92-91 SEC semifinal win,
shootouts can be a problem, too. However, almost anyone who relies on
guard play will get run out of the gym.
Strengths: Speed and shooting. The nice thing about Tennessee’s
style is that if someone misses a three, there will soon be a chance at
another. Few teams bomb away like the Vols do, and few teams are as
successful at it. Considering its style, UT is stunningly good at not
turning the ball over and it even better at stealing it away. Almost no
one in America can match up with the Vol guards, but …
Weaknesses: The bigs. The rebounding has to come from a variety
of different sources and everyone has to be in on it. 6-9 Wayne Chism
and 6-7 Duke Crews are sort of inside factors, but not really. The best
rebounder is 6-7, 215-pound Tyler Smith, and he can be pushed around.
While the offense is perfect to mount big comebacks, or put teams away,
there could be problems in close games. Tennessee commits tons of fouls
(about 20 per game) and is awful on the free throw line (hitting just
65% of them).
Players You Should Care About: It’s Chism’s job to handle anyone
else’s big man. He has grown into more than just a big guy who takes up
space and provides the team’s main post player, in a loose term, as he
now has expanded his shooting range and has done more on both ends of
the floor. Of course, Tennessee is all about the guards, especially the
combination of Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith. Lofton has focused more on
becoming a complete scorer and not just a gunner, and while his
production has slipped a bit, he’s still a deadly producer when the team
needs a key basket. Smith can shoot, but his strength is getting to the
basket to provide another option to the sweet shooting Lofton. These two
are deadly on both ends of the floor.
Best Wins: at Xavier 82-75; at Memphis 66-62
Worst Losses: at Kentucky 72-66; at Vanderbilt 72-69
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Final Four. The SEC
tournament loss will be just the fuel the Vols need to put on an
impressive offensive show on the way to San Antonio.
No. 15 American
Eagles –
Patriot (21-11, 10-4 in the Patriot)
Basically: A junior dominated team, boosted by four key JUCO
transfers, American needed a little while to jell. After a loss to Navy
put the Eagles at a rocky 11-10 in late January, suddenly everything
turned around and everything came together as they reeled of ten wins in
the final 11 games highlighted by the Patriot championship victory over
Colgate to go to the tournament for the first time ever. With eight
juniors and two seniors, this is a team full of veterans who can bomb
away and be just scary enough to make the first round game close if
everything breaks right. There are some good wins on the résumé beating
Maryland and Mount Saint Mary’s, and outside of the problems late in the
year against Navy (losing twice), everything’s been going right.
Strengths: The three. The Eagles don’t just bomb away, averaging
eight three-point attempts per game; they make them hitting a ridiculous
41%. Automatic on the line, they nail 75% of their attempts. The
nation’s fourth best three-point shooting team doesn’t have a
high-powered attack; on the contrary, it keeps the scores low. There
just aren’t many misses.
Weaknesses: Forcing mistakes. The defense is tough on the inside
and the scores are kept low by keeping the running and gunning to a
minimum, but there aren’t many blocked shots and there are no steals
whatsoever.
Players You Should Care About: While everyone shoots the ball
well and there are several three-point options, junior guard Garrison
Carr is the main man. Only 5-11 and a wispy 165 pounds, he’s still tough
at fighting through defenders to get open, and when he’s on, American is
tough to deal with. Not shy at taking the three, he’s been more
aggressive this year at taking the shots that are there with 284
attempts and making a whopping 45% of them.
Best Wins: at Maryland 67-59; Colgate (Patriot Championship
52-46)
Worst Losses: Fairfield 60-52; at Bucknell 66-62
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
The Eagles will put up a
big number against Tennessee and will still lose by 30.
No. 7 Butler
Bulldogs
– Horizon League (29-3, 16-2 in Horizon)
Basically: The Bulldogs punched their ticket to when they rolled
by Cleveland State 70-55 in the Horizon League’s championship game.
While they would’ve been in anyway, it was still a strong way to end the
conference slate to set the tone for what should be a strong run for a
veteran bunch. With a killer defense and efficient offense, they have
the backcourt to give everyone problems, like they did against Florida
in last year’s tournament. Senior guards Mike Green and A.J. Graves have
seen it all, and newcomer Matt Howard has done an excellent job
patrolling the paint in his freshman campaign. With 30-year-old first
time head coach Brad Stevens doing a better job than his age and looks
would make it seem, it’s all there to at least get to the Sweet 16.
Strengths: Pressure. Butler plays a stifling defense that limited
opponents to fewer than 58 points per game, and its offense isn’t
special, it’s extremely efficient. The entire roster hits the three on a
consistent basis, or so it seems when facing wave after wave of gunners,
making the Bulldogs tough to handle for a full 40 minutes.
Weaknesses: Inside presence. An outside shooting team, there
isn’t a lot of size and what bulk there is bombs from outside. Anyone
with good big players should be able to dominate on the boards as games
go on, while teams with strong, athletic guards could wear down the BU
backcourt.
Players You Should Care About: Green was the MVP of the Horizon
League Tournament and was the team’s leading scorer, assist-man, and
rebounder. Yes, this is a balanced team, but Green’s the one who has to
get going to make BU dangerous. A.J. Graves is the other floor general
that totals close to 14 points per game, while frosh Matt Howard chips
in with close to 13 per game and is one of the few inside presences on
the boards.
Best Wins: at Texas Tech 81-71; Ohio State 65-46; Cleveland State
70-55 (Horizon Championship)
Worst Losses: at Wright State 43-42; at Cleveland State 56-52
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Upset. Butler won't
be able to keep South Alabama off the boards.
No. 10 South Alabama
Jaguars –
Sun Belt (26-6, 16-2 in Sun Belt)
Basically: Middle Tennessee ruined an otherwise fantastic second
half of the year, The Jaguars were tied with Western Kentucky for the
regular season title, and actually beat the Hilltoppers twice, but lose
to Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt tournament, and in mid-February, for
the only two losses in the final 11 games. While there were six losses
on the year, the four non-Blue Raider defeats came by a grand total of
13 points including an overtime loss at Vanderbilt. This is a top
shooting team with a great group of rebounders; this is hardly a
Cinderella.
Strengths: Rebounding. There isn’t a lot of height, but everyone
hits the boards. Everyone. Brandon Davis and DeAndre Coleman are bangers
who are next to impossible to keep off the glass, while the guards pick
off a rebound here and there. Great at getting points from ten feet and
in, this is a good shooting team that gets plenty of second chances.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. It’s not bad, but it’s not
necessarily a plus. The Jaguars handled themselves well against the
bombing teams and dominated the teams with average front lines, but
Middle Tennessee was able to win on the free throw line. South Alabama
doesn’t commit a lot of fouls, but it can get in trouble if a team is
able to execute on the inside.
Players You Should Care About: This is a balanced offense with
several different options, but it’s Demetric Bennett who makes things
go. He was the one who kept the Jaguars alive in the Sun Belt tournament
with a key 14 points against New Orleans on three of six shooting from
three, and went off for 32 against Middle Tennessee. He’s been a nearly
automatic 20-point performer who got better in a big way on the free
throw line hitting 63% after shooting just 69% last year.
Best Wins: San Diego 77-55; at Western Kentucky 69-64
Worst Losses: at North Texas 70-68; MTSU 82-73
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Second round loss to
Tennessee. The aggressiveness will be enough to get out of the first
round, but the lack of a consistent offense will be a problem against
the Vols.
No. 3 Louisville
Cardinals
– Big East (24-8, 14-4 in the Big East)
Basically: A veteran team with all the pieces in place to be in
the Final Four hunt, Louisville has a tough defense and excellent
offensive balance. Four players average in double-digits with enough
variety to run up and down the court, or slug it out with the toughest
bangers. Having dealt with the brutal Big East, and having come within
an eyelash of winning the regular season title, this is a battle tested
team with the makeup to be a virtual lock to at least get to the Sweet
16. At least that was the belief before losing to Georgetown in the
regular-season-deciding finale and then to Pitt in overtime of the Big
East tournament.
Strengths: Defense. With a strong inside presence, plenty of
blocked shots, and quick guards who pressure the ball well, the
Cardinals don’t allow any easy looks. To generate points, offenses will
have to keep the pace moving and hope to go on a few runs with the
transition game, but that fits into what Rick Pitino wants. It’ll be
next to impossible for an average team to beat the Cards in a shootout,
while the grinding teams had better be able to guard inside and out.
Weaknesses: Free throw shooting. Considering the Cardinals commit
a lot of fouls, the free throw line could be their undoing. While not
completely horrible on the line, hitting 66%, they’re not great and
they’ll have to win at least one game when they’re on the wrong side of
the free throw ledger. This is a Pitino coached team, so there will be
plenty of threes jacked up, and plenty made, but this isn’t necessarily
an elite outside shooting team. It’s good, not great.
Players You Should Care About: Four players, David Padgett,
Terrence Williams, Jerry Smith and Earl Clark all average double-digits,
but it’s Williams who needs the attention on both ends of the floor. An
NBA talent who’d have better stats if he wasn’t a cog on a veteran
squad, he’s going to likely be the most athletic player on the floor in
any game with a strong presence on the boards, a nice passing touch, and
decent, but not top-shelf range.
Best Wins: Georgetown 59-51; Notre Dame 90-85
Worst Losses: Cincinnati 58-57; at Seton Hall 92-82
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Sweet Sixteen loss to
Tennessee. The Cardinals will be an interesting sleeper team, but they
won't have the firepower to get by the Vols.
No. 14 Boise State
Broncos –
WAC (25-8, 12-4 in the WAC)
Basically: A four-way tie atop the WAC regular season standings
was broken in the conference tournament with Boise State beating one of
the other leaders, Utah State, in the semifinal and surviving New Mexico
State in a 107-102 triple overtime thriller to get back to the NCAA
tournament for the first time since 1994. With a tremendous offense and
a slew of sharp-shooters, this is a dangerous sleeper that beat BYU and
wasn’t awful in a loss to Washington State. While there’s no size,
there’s plenty of outside scoring and enough firepower to go on a few
in-game runs to make things interesting.
Strengths: Shooting. Despite not having a big man inside, the
Broncos are second in the nation in shooting hitting 51% of their shots
along with 39% from behind the arc. The offense does a great job of
passing and making the one extra play to get the ball to the right man
in a great position. While not necessarily a run-n-gun team, it can keep
up the pace with anyone.
Weaknesses: Size and mistakes. The lack of bulk on the interior
wasn’t costly in WAC play, but it’ll be a killer if there’s an early win
or two against the big boys. The big problem is turnovers with way too
many for a team that passes as well as this one does. Considering this
is among the nation’s best shooting teams, it’s awful from the free
throw line hitting just 66% of the time.
Players You Should Care About: While forward Tyler Tiedeman is a
nice third option, the offense goes through Reggie Larry and Matt
Nelson. Larry averaged over 19 points and nine rebounds per game while
strapping the team on his back at times late in the year. He was a
consistent weapon over the second half of the season with 20 points or
more in 11 of the last 14 games including the final five. Nelson shot
65% from the field and 63% from the line. As the team’s main man in the
interior, he attempted just one three pointer on the year, he has to own
the glass as much as possible.
Best Wins: BYU 73-70; New Mexico State 107-102 3OT (WAC
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Montana State 86-74; Loyola Marymount 76-74
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
The Louisville defense
will make quick work of the WAC champion.
No. 6 Oklahoma
Sooners –
Big 12 (22-11, 9-7 in the Big 12)
Basically: In his second year in Norman, former Duke Blue Devil
Jeff Capel has quickly turned into a strong head coach taking the
Sooners through a decent schedule in a strange and streaky season. There
were non-conference wins over solid teams like Arkansas, Gonzaga and
West Virginia, but there were losses to Colorado, the Big 12’s worst
team, and Stephen F. Austin before getting bounced out of the Big 12
tournament by Texas 77-49. Injuries have been an issue, but OU can play
with anyone when healthy. These aren’t the old Billy Tubbs Sooners; this
is a grinding team that wins with defense and toughness.
Strengths: Inside play. 6-10, 245-pound Blake Griffin had a
strong freshman season leading the team in scoring and rebounds as he
beat up the rest of the Big 12. Banged up at times, he’s still been able
to consistently produce. Helping on the inside is center Longar Logar,
who can’t shoot from the free throw line, turns it over, and has a
limited game, but is a huge presence who can block shots.
Weaknesses: Consistent scoring. OU tries to win on defense
because the offense just doesn’t crank out enough production. Griffin
and Logar handle the inside, and guard Tony Crocker does a little of
everything, but there aren’t enough consistent options to rely on
against the better teams. The offense was held to under 60 points in
each of the last six losses, and under 50 in the last two in the regular
season.
Players You Should Care About: Crocker has to be on from three.
When he’s hitting, the offense opens up inside and the rest of the
limited attack is freed up. OU likes to go with a three-guard system,
and at 6-6, Crocker provides all sorts of matchup problems. However, he
can be erased from games when defenses key on him. Junior Austin Johnson
is another key to the Sooner attack, who scored a total of 16 points in
the final five regular season losses, and went for double-digits in each
of the last six wins.
Best Wins: Gonzaga 72-68; at Baylor 77-71
Worst Losses: Stephen F. Austin 66-62; at Colorado 72-58
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Second round loss to
Louisville ... but that could go either way. The inside game will get
the Sooners out of the first round without a problem, but the Cardinals
will be too tough defensively.
No. 11 St. Joseph’s
Hawks –
Atlantic 10 (21-12, 9-7 in the A-10)
Basically: Getting to the Atlantic 10 championship game was
enough to get off the bubble, but losing to Temple made it a close call.
The Hawks struggled over the second half of the season with a rough
stretch losing six in nine games, but a win over Xavier helped ease the
slide, and a stunning win over Musketeers in the A-10 tournament punched
the ticket. Phil Martelli’s club is great on the inside and excellent at
blocking shots, and there’s just enough scoring to match up well with
the high-powered offenses. Outside of beating Xavier, there aren’t any
jaw-dropping wins on the résumé, but there are some ugly losses. Is this
team peaking or were the final games of the regular season just an
aberration?
Strengths: Shooting. Inside and out, the Hawks are maddeningly
consistent and good at hitting the key shots to start and stop runs.
With a good inside presence, there are plenty of options to bang it
inside, but the three-point gunners are what will account for any
tournament success. Hitting 39% from three, the Hawks will be deadly if
they get it over 40%.
Weaknesses: Toughness. For so much decent size on the front line
and with good pressure from the guards, there should be more production
on the glass. Rebounding isn’t a major issue, but it isn’t the strength
it needs to be to make any sort of a deep run. The defense is good, but
it’s hardly special.
Players You Should Care About: Senior Pat Calathes is the tone
setter on the boards, with blocked shots, and in the paint. At 6-10 and
210 pounds, he’s a rail who’ll get shoved around a bit, but he averages
7.5 rebounds a game and has become a more diverse offensive threat
averaging 17.8 points per outing. Everything revolves around Calathes
and Ahmad Nivins on the inside, and Rob Ferguson on the outside.
Ferguson doesn’t take too many threes, but he’s accurate, timely, and
effective. The more he hits, the more openings there are for the big
men.
Best Wins: Villanova 77-55; Xavier 61-53
Worst Losses: Holy Cross 71-66; Duquesne 102-88
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Knocked out right
away. There isn't going to be enough from the front line to contend with
the Oklahoma big inside game.
