2008 March
Madness - West
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
East |
Midwest |
South
West Bracket
No. 1 UCLA Bruins
– Pac 10 (31-3, 16-2 in the Pac 10)
Basically: After losing to the national champion, Florida, in
each of the last two tournaments, with two Final Four appearances and a
trip to the 2006 national title game, the Bruins have come back even
better with star freshman Kevin Love living up to his advanced billing
to go along with an already strong nucleus. Battle-tested with tight
March wins against Arizona and Cal to cement the regular-season Pac 10
championship, the Bruins also won the conference tournament with wins
over Cal, USC and Stanford. This is the most deadly of tournament teams
with NBA-level athleticism combining with a defense-first mentality.
It’s a simple formula: play great defense, convert in the transition,
repeat.
Strengths: Rebounding. It’s a Ben Howland coached team, so it’s
terrific on the boards ranking second in the nation in rebounding
margin. The Bruins don’t have quite the killer defense of past years
when it comes to pressuring the perimeter and blocking shots, allowing
opponents to hit around 42% of their attempts, but there aren’t many
points to be had. Most importantly, it’s one and done off the boards.
There’s always a big free throw advantage with UCLA ranking third in the
nation in fouls committed while hitting 74% from the line.
Weaknesses: Three point shooting. The Bruin offense is about
getting it inside to Love and/or getting the guards to the basket;
there’s no consistent outside scoring to speak of. UCLA doesn’t take the
three, and it doesn’t hit the three. That’s not to say there isn’t the
potential for three point shooting, Darren Collison certainly has the
range and ability; the Bruins are simply an attacking offensive team.
Players You Should Care About: Love is an athletic NBA power
forward spending the year as a college center. Great on the boards and
with a decent passing touch, he can do a little of everything. He’s not
the only future big leaguer as Collison will likely be off next year
after giving it some though after last season. While he’s always going
to be slight, checking in at around 6-0 and 165 pounds, he’s tough as
nails and gets his share of rebounds. While his assists have gone tone,
he’s been a big more of a scorer. If you have a few spare moments, go to
YouTube and type in Russell Westbrook. The 6-3 guard is a good
all-around player and the team’s top passer, but he’s known mostly for
being among college basketball’s most explosive dunkers.
Best Wins: at Stanford 76-67; Stanford 67-64 (Pac 10
Championship)
Worst Losses: USC 72-63; at Washington 71-61
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Another Final Four,
another near-miss for Ben Howland. The Bruins have survived by the skin
of their teeth at times over the final few games, and while there's too
much talent to get knocked out by anyone in the West, winning the title
might be too tough if Kevin Love's back starts acting up again.
No. 16 Mississippi
Valley State Delta Devils
– SWAC (17-15, 12-6 in the SWAC)
Basically: Going to the show for the first time since 1996, the
Delta Devils got in after hitting two late free throws late to beat
Jackson State 59-58 in the SWAC title game. The victory made it nine
straight wins to close out after starting the year 0-8 as the punching
bag for teams like Washington State (in a 71-26 loss) and Pitt (in a
78-45 defeat). An 8-15 start didn’t seem to matter as MVSU won close
game after close game while catching a huge break by missing the
league’s best team, Alabama State, in the tournament.
Strengths: Grinding things out. With little offensive punch, the
plan is to slow the game down to have a chance, and for the most part,
the defense is just good enough to do that. With a big body inside in
center Larry Cox, opponents have had a hard time regularly getting to
the basket in a half-court set. Anyone who can’t shoot from the outside
could have a few problems for a stretch.
Weaknesses: Shooting. MVSU can’t do it. There’s not much
happening from three and Cox is relatively limited inside. There isn’t
much of a transition game, no consistent passing to find the open man,
and no burst to go on any sort of a run against anyone with a defense.
Players You Should Care About: While senior Carl Lucas didn’t
play a big role in the SWAC title game for roughly 39 minutes and 50
seconds, he came up huge when he had to hitting the game-winning free
throws. That’ll be all anyone remembers from his seven point night, but
he got the Delta Devils there in the first place as the top scorer down
the final stretch with 20 in the semifinal game against Arkansas-Pine
Bluff and with 21 against Grambling State. At 6-5 he’s not all that
huge, but he’s one of the team’s best rebounders and has to be a force
defensively as much as he’s been on offense.
Best Wins: Alabama State 72-60; Jackson State 59-58 (SWAC
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Washington State 71-26; at Alcorn State 70-67 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: A 35-point loss to
UCLA in the first round.
No. 8 BYU Cougars
– Mountain West Conference (27-7, 14-2 in MWC)
Basically: The Cougars ripped through their Mountain West
schedule for the second year in a row, but were even better this season
going 14-2 for a second straight title for the first back-to-back
championships in Provo since 1979 and 1980. All that came apart in the
tournament with a shocking 76-61 blowout loss to UNLV, but that might
only serve as a wake-up call. Perfect at home with a 47-game winning
streak, this is a veteran group that’s been consistent (at least until
the MWC Tournament final) while still improving. Along with winning the
title, the Cougars set a program record for regular-season wins (25) and
a conference record for regular-season conference wins (14). With a nice
flow both inside and out, the offense is strong enough to handle itself
against the running teams while they can get down and dirty defensively
with anyone.
Strengths: Defense. The Cougars won a majority of their games by
playing good, solid, in-your-face defense forcing opponents to connect
on fewer than 39% of shot from the field and less than 30% from beyond
the arc. They’re also the top defensive rebounding team in the country
ripping down close to 27 per game to go along with close to ten
offensive boards.
Weaknesses: The bench is very short, and they turn the ball over
way too often. For a team that’s so defensively aggressive, winning the
free throw battle is hard shooting under 66% as a team. As good as they
were at home this year (16-0), they only won nine of their 16 games on
the road.
Players You Should Care About: Junior guard Lee Cummard won
co-Player of the Year honors in the Mountain West and joined junior
center Trent Plaisted as first-team all-conference selections. Junior
guard Ben Murdock does an excellent job of getting everyone involved
offensively, and his play will set the tone and will have to carry the
team through the first two rounds. If he’s turning the ball over and
other teams are getting into a steady transition game, the Cougars will
be bounced.
Best Wins: Louisville 78-76; at New Mexico 70-69
Worst
Losses:
Michigan State 68-61; at UNLV 70-41 & 76-61 (MWC Championship)
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: The embarrassment of
the Mountain West championship game will serve as a wake-up call in the
first round against Texas A&M, but after getting out to a lead against
UCLA in the second round, a late Bruin rally will end the upset bid.
No. 9 Texas A&M
Aggies –
Big 12 (24-10, 8-8 in the Big 12)
Basically: This was supposed to be a bit of a rebuilding season
with head coach Billy Gillespie gone to Kentucky and star Acie Law off
to the Atlanta Hawks, and it was, but it took a while. An easy early
slate led to a 15-1 start before reality, and the Big 12 schedule,
kicked in, and a rough late stretch didn’t make it easy to get into the
dance. However, a nice Big 12 tournament run with wins over Iowa State
and Kansas State, along with a good effort in a 77-71 loss to Kansas,
changed things around. This is a tough rebounding, tough defending team
that didn’t do enough of either late in the year. Nothing will be
expected of the Aggies, but there’s just enough talent, and a good
enough defense, to make a little bit of noise.
Strengths: Defense. The Aggies don’t force many turnovers, but
they block a lot of shots, are ultra-aggressive up and down the court,
and don’t allow any uncontested shots. The interior presence is strong
enough to dominate most teams on the boards, and there are almost never
any second shots allowed.
Weaknesses: Free throws. For a team that relies on its defense
and prefers to grind games out, not being able to hit from the line is
an issue. Among the worst teams in America shooting free throws at a 64%
clip, this will likely be the reason when the Aggies eventually get
bounced out.
Player You Should Care About: A&M isn’t big on shooting the
three, but that doesn’t mean 6-7 junior Josh Carter can’t do it. After
connecting on half of his deep attempts last year, he has struggled with
his consistency hitting just 38% of his threes and going 4-of-20 in his
last four games. Normally a consistent scorer, his struggles in February
coincided to the team’s slide. Along with Joseph Jones, Carter is the
team’s best all-around player, and now he needs to be more than just
part of the show; he needs to come up with some of his best performances
of the year.
Best Wins: at Ohio State 70-47; Kansas State 63-60
Worst Losses: at Texas Tech 68-53; Oklahoma State 59-54
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
The Aggies will lose a
tight defensive battle to BYU. The Cougars will win the free throw
battle; that'll make all the difference.
No. 5 Drake Bulldogs –
Missouri Valley Conference (28-4, 15-3 in MVC)
Basically:
The Bulldogs put forth a storybook season that saw them rip apart its
MVC competitors to go 15-3 before officially punching their ticket for
the first time since 1971 by pounding Illinois State 79-49 in the MVC
Championship Game. The conference punching bag had finally turned things
around with one of the year’s shocking performances on a magical journey
that’s set all sorts of school records. Along with winning 28 games for
the first time in the program’s history, the Bulldogs grabbed their
first regular season conference title since 1971, qualified for the
tournament for the first time since 1986, and became the first No. 1
seed to win the MVC Tournament in more than a decade.
Strengths: There isn’t any one particular problem. While not stellar
in any area outside of three-point shooting, Drake does a little of
everything well. It’s solid offensively, sound defensively, and it just
doesn’t make any mistakes. More importantly for a program that’s been
down for so long, it now appears used to being good; just getting in
isn’t going to be enough. The attitude is there. Offensively, the
Bulldogs can bomb hitting around nine three-pointers a game.
Weaknesses: Inside presence. So perimeter oriented and so
reliant on the guards, anyone with a strong inside game should be able
to dominant. Opponents shot a shade over 43% against them from the
field, and while it hasn’t been much of a problem because of an
efficient offense, the more talented teams should be able to go on the
type of runs that Drake didn’t have to deal with too often in MVC play.
Rebounding could eventually be an issue.
Players You Should Care About: Josh Young showed loads of potential
last year, and has now become the go-to guy in the crunch averaging a
tad under 16 points per game while hitting close to three three-pointers
per game. He also loves to streak to the basket allowing him to get to
the charity stripe where he makes three of every four attempts. Not to
be outdone by the team’s best offensive threat is senior guard Adam
Emmenecker, a walk-on who has grown into a top assist man.
Best Wins:
at Butler
71-64; Illinois State 79-49
Worst
Losses:
Bradley 72-71; at St. Mary’s 72-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the first
round. The amazing ride stops here as a balanced Western Kentucky team
will pull off the upset in a shootout.
No. 12
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
– Sun Belt (27-6, 16-2 in the Sun Belt)
Basically: WKU couldn’t handle South Alabama, the other Sun Belt
power team, losing 65-61 and 69-64 in the regular season. Outside of
those two losses to the Jaguars, the Hilltoppers haven’t lost since
mid-December. Winners of 19 of their last 21, getting through the Sun
Belt title wasn’t much of a problem with no one coming closer than ten
points in the last six games. Fantastic at bombing away from three and
is great on the boards, this is no sleeper Cinderella; this is a real,
live tournament team with the potential to get to the Sweet 16. There
might not be any real impressive wins, but Tennessee and Gonzaga got all
they could handle.
Strengths: Scoring. Fantastic inside and out, the Hilltoppers can
get to the basket without a problem and can crush teams with big runs on
the three. Hitting over 39% of the time from beyond the arc, this is one
of the best three-point shooting teams in America, while the guards are
tremendous at breaking defenders down and getting easy shots. Even
though this is a guard oriented attack, it’s a deep team with role
players to step in and rebound.
Weaknesses: Hacking. WKU hasn’t seen a foul it hasn’t liked to
commit averaging more than 21 per game. The defense is solid and there’s
enough of an inside presence to keep the bigger, brawnier teams from
dominating, but in a tight tournament game, losing the free-throw
shooting battle will be a big problem.
Players You Should Care About: This is a deep team that can throw
together several different lineups with several different options, and
it also has the one star in Courtney Lee who can carry the offense. A
legitimate pro prospect with a great outside game and guard quickness in
a 6-5 forward’s body, he has the game, and now he has the résumé having
proven he can produce against anyone. He went for 23 against Tennessee
and 21 against Gonzaga, and if the three is falling, he can go for 30 in
an up-tempo game.
Best Wins: Nebraska 69-62 OT; Middle Tennessee 67-57
Worst Losses: at Northern Arizona 64-61; at Southern Illinois
88-78
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Drake doesn't do much
on the inside, WKU can come up with points in the paint as well as match
three for three. The Hilltoppers are the real deal and will pull off two
big upsets before getting bounced out by UCLA.
No. 4 Connecticut
Huskies –
Big East (24-8, 13-5 in the Big East)
Basically: This is Connecticut, a national powerhouse that goes
into every season thinking national title, but after missing out on last
year’s tournament and starting out a pedestrian 11-5, the program
appeared to have jumped the shark. And then the veteran team turned
things around in a big hurry cranking out ten straight games in the meat
of the Big East season and became a player in the conference race late
in the year. A tough loss to Villanova and a stunner at Providence ended
the dream comeback, and a 78-72 loss to West Virginia in the Big East
tournament wasn’t a plus, but this is still a dangerous team with the
young talent to make a whole bunch of noise.
Strengths: Strength inside. No one in America is better at
blocking shots than the Huskies with 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet leading
the way, and few are better at hitting the boards. This is a pure inside
team on both ends of the court that doesn’t allow second chance baskets
and gets most of its points in the paint. With five starters averaging
in double figures, it’s impossible to focus on just one player to stop.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. There isn’t any. The points all
come from throwing the ball inside or driving to the hoop, and while
that’s been tremendously effective, there will be big problems if the
Huskies have to mount any sort of a comeback with the three. The defense
is terrific, especially (you guessed it) inside, but there aren’t many
steals and a three-point chucker type of Cinderella will have a
puncher’s chance.
Players You Should Care About: Thabeet isn’t just a defensive
power, he has also grown into a more diverse inside offensive player. A
raw, pure dunker last year, he has come up with a few moves and doesn’t
have to rely purely on an offensive rebound or his power game. The
make-or-break player could be sophomore guard Jerome Dyson, a talented,
explosive scorer who was on his way to a huge season before failing a
drug test and getting suspended for nine games. He hasn’t exactly gotten
back in the swing of things with diminished minutes since returning to
the team, but the Huskies need him to be the player he was in the
mid-part of the season to make a big run.
Best Wins: Marquette 89-73; Notre Dame 84-78
Worst Losses: Providence 77-65; at Providence 85-76
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Knocked out in the
second round by Western Kentucky. This isn't the Connecticut team you
remember making deep run after deep run. If Drake beats WKU, it'll
outbomb the Huskies from the outside.
No. 13 San Diego
Toreros –
West Coast (21-13, 11-3 in the West Coast)
Basically: The only way the Toreros were going dancing was to win
the West Coast Conference tournament, and after a stunning
double-overtime victory over St. Mary’s, they pulled off another shocker
with a 69-62 comeback win over Gonzaga for the title, after losing 13 in
a row to the Bulldogs. After starting out 8-11, going to the tournament
wasn’t exactly on the radar, and then came a streak of 13 wins in the
final 15 games, with the two losses to St. Mary’s and Gonzaga, to get
in. This is a tough, hard-nosed team that relies on defense and timely
shooting, but if it gets into any sort of a shootout, the run is over.
Strengths: The jell. First year head coach Bill Grier, from
Gonzaga, inherited a team without any seniors and full of junior
leadership. With freshman Rob Jones and sophomore De’Jon Jackson also
stepping up, the team has taken most of the year to come together and
it’s peaking at the right time. While there’s little overall scoring
pop, it’s a relatively deep team.
Weaknesses: Scoring. Juniors Brandon Johnson and Gyno Pomare can
fill it up, but the team struggles to generate points and gets next to
nothing from three. There are too many turnovers, no shooters, and lousy
free throw shooting. If the defense isn’t on, and an opponent goes on
any sort of a big early run, there will be problems.
Players You Should Care About: Johnson is only 6-0 and around 200
pounds, but he plays much bigger. Sneaky-tough on the boards, he
averages over four rebounds per game while leading the team with 17
points per outing. One of the only three-point threats, he gets plenty
of looks, and respect, from defenders who get their doors blown off by
one of the WCC’s fastest guards.
Best Wins: St. Mary’s 75-69 OT; Gonzaga 69-62 (WCC Championship)
Worst Losses: at Marshall 76-60, Cal-State Bakersfield 80-72
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the first
round. There just isn't enough on the front line to stop UConn.
No. 2 Duke Blue
Devils –
ACC (27-5, 13-3 in ACC)
Basically: After spending last year reloading with young talent,
and paying the price with an also-ran season, the Blue Devils came back
with a veteran but still young team with tremendous offensive scoring
punch and more confidence in big games. The 2007 team lost a slew of
close games, mainly because it didn’t have the maturity to close, or the
know-how to come up with the big plays in the clutch. That’s not the
case this year, and even though there were one-point losses to Pitt and
Miami, this is a much tighter, much more complete offensive team.
However, a loss to Clemson in the ACC tournament made it two losses in
the final three games … the young Blue Devils still might not quite be
ready for primetime.
Strengths: Balanced scoring. The high-powered guard-oriented
offense has five players averaging in double figures with two or three
different options at any one time to get hot and take over a game. Teams
without much firepower won’t have much of a shot; holding this group
under 80 is next to impossible. With so many three-point weapons able to
lead the way to big runs, no lead is ever safe.
Weaknesses: Pillow soft. While this isn’t an awful rebounding
team, it’s not a great one and anyone with a steady inside presence can
dominate. The ultimate finesse team that will live and die by the
three-point shot all tournament, it’ll be interesting to see what
happens if it has to face a team full of bangers. This might be one of
the most talented squads Coach K has put together in a while, but it’s
young and not tournament tested after going one-n-done last year (losing
to VCU 79-77).
Players You Should Care About: Duke can’t make a big run without
a huge tournament from freshman Kyle Singler. One of the only consistent
inside scorers, the 6-8, 220-pounder has to get used to being bounced
around even more than he was in conference play, and he has to keep the
fouls in the big games to a minimum, like he was able to do most of the
time in the ACC. Even though he’s the team’s top rebounder, that’s
mainly because of his height and position; he’s not a space-eater by any
stretch.
Best Wins: Wisconsin 82-58; at North Carolina 89-78
Worst Losses: at Wake Forest 86-73; at Miami 96-95
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: One then done. Duke
will have few problems trading outside shooting punches with Belmont,
but West Virginia is the wrong second round matchup for a Blue Devil
team that relies on a finesse offense.
No. 15 Belmont Bruins
– Atlantic Sun (25-8, 14-2 in the Atlantic Sun)
Basically: On a 13-game winning streak, the Bruins rolled past
Jacksonville 79-61 in the Atlantic Sun final for a third straight trip
to the tournament under longtime head coach Rick Byrd. This is a
high-scoring team that might struggle to hold down anyone who can score
even a little, but it’ll go down swinging. With no one having any fear
of shooting from deep, or anywhere else, and with good depth, it’ll be
hard to wear Belmont out.
Strengths: Outside shooting. Few teams will be able to match the
Bruins three pointer for three pointer. The offense doesn’t do try to do
too much inside, but it chucks, and chucks, and chucks some more from
beyond the arc. The defense will give up points in bunches, but it gets
its share of steals while the offense does a terrific job of keeping the
ball moving and making the extra pass to find the open man … for a
three.
Weaknesses: Inside defensive presence. The defense will take the
ball away, but it’ll give up plenty of points on the inside and there’s
no shot blocking threat whatsoever. While this could be a dangerous
offense if the threes start falling, and it could bomb its way back into
a game if it gets down, anyone who plays halfway decent perimeter
defense, and/or is tough down low, should be able to advance without too
much of a problem. You don’t lose to Campbell or Kennesaw State without
having a few flaws.
Players You Should Care About: The threes come from everywhere,
so there isn’t just one option to stop, but if possible, slowing down
senior guard Justin Hare would be a plus. The tone-setter and the most
explosive threat, he’s a 20-point scorer if he gets into any sort of a
groove. He might be option one to deal with, and Shane Dansby is No. 1A.
The team’s most consistent scorer, going under double digits just four
times, Dansby’s also the team’s best rebounder.
Best Wins: at Cincinnati 86-75; Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun
Championship) 79-61
Worst Losses: at Campbell 83-75; Kennesaw State 81-79
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: While the Bruins will
lose to Duke, they'll make it fun for a little while with enough three
balls falling to keep it from being a blowout until the second half.
No. 7 West Virginia
Mountaineers
– Big East (24-10, 11-7 in the Big East)
Basically: Bob Huggins was supposed to need at least a year to
make the Mountaineers relevant, but a 10-1 start, even though the win
over Winthrop was the only one of mention, set the tone, and a decent
Big East season has moved up the timetable on success. No, there haven’t
been many statement wins outside of two victories over Marquette, but
for those who believe the Big East is the league’s best conference,
finishing the regular season in the upper-division is a good start to
the Huggins era. Now can the Mountaineers produce? They’re great at
blasting the dregs and they should be able to tough their way through a
game or two, but there might be a very hard ceiling on how high they can
go.
Strengths: Ball security. The offense just doesn’t give the ball
away, turning it over a mere 11 times per game while doing a great job
of moving the ball around and finding the open man for the easy shot.
This isn’t a great three point shooting team, but it rains in enough of
them to make close game blowouts, and to open things up a little bit
inside. It’s all about the midrange jumper, and with the way the
Mountaineers pass, that’s not a bad thing.
Weaknesses: Size. There isn’t any. Jamie Smalligan is a
seven-footer, but he’s not much of a facto. Joe Alexander is a nasty
rebounder and a good 6-8 scorer, but he’s about it as far as real height
in the rotation. Everyone hits the boards and everyone battles on both
ends, but WVU will be in trouble against a team with some bulk and power
inside.
Players You Should Care About: Alexander is the scorer who must
go for 20 for WVU to go on any sort of a good run, and Da’Sean Butler
has to do what he does best which is rebound and pump in around 12-to-15
points. Without a lot of front-court depth the 6-7 Butler has had to be
one of the team’s toughest players on both ends of the floor. He might
not by a tournament star, but the Mountaineers can’t win without him.
Best Wins: Marquette 79-64; Pitt 76-62
Worst Losses: Cincinnati 62-39; at Villanova 78-56
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Elite Eight. Bob
Huggins needs to send a balloon bouquet to the committee types for the
great early matchups. The one thing West Virginia can't deal with is a
great inside game, and Arizona, Duke and Purdue don't really have one.
UCLA does.
No. 10
Arizona Wildcats
– Pac 10 (19-14, 8-10 in the Pac 10)
Basically: One of the biggest bubble calls of the tournament, the
Wildcats were awful over the second half of the year losing eight of
their final 12 games and were known more for their coaching issues, with
Lute Olson taking a leave of absence and Kevin O’Neill taking over, than
for anything done on the court. This is a good shooting team led by the
bombing of freshman sensation Jerryd Bayless, but there are major
problems on the boards and the defense is merely average. So how did
they get in? Two wins over Washington State and a victory over USC
helped the cause, but this has hardly been an Arizona-like season.
Strengths: Outside shooting. Living and dying by the three, the
Wildcats hit 48% from the field and were tremendous from beyond the arc
nailing 39% of their attempts. The good shooting also transferred to the
line making 75% of their free throws. There aren’t a lot of turnovers
and not enough fouls on a consistent basis to worry about losing the
free throw battle.
Weaknesses: Squishy soft. There’s not a lot of banging on the
boards and while the defense isn’t a big problem, it’s hardly a
strength. Outside of forwards Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, the
rebounding just isn’t there. The defense doesn’t force nearly enough
takeaways and an average presence on the inside.
Players You Should Care About: Bayless has been everything and
more. A pure scorer, he’s putting up 20 points per game and has been
good enough from three to grow into a bit of a threat. While not an
elite passer, he’s good enough at feeding the ball to the hot guy to be
an effective point guard. However, he’s usually the one with the hot
hand.
Best Wins: at UNLV 52-49; at Washington State 65-55
Worst Losses: Virginia 75-72; at Washington 75-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: The committee forgot
to add the State to the end of Arizona and it'll show in the first round
loss to West Virginia.
No. 3 Xavier Musketeers
– Atlantic 10 (26-5, 14-2 in the Atlantic 10)
Basically: The Musketeers dominated A10 play this season
clinching the regular season title weeks ago going 14-2 in conference
play, but a stunning 61-53 loss to St. Joes, the second in two weeks,
cost them a shot at the tournament championship. Even so, with one of
the most consistent and balanced offenses in the nation connecting on
close to half of their shots while hitting 40% from beyond the arc, and
75% from the line, keeping up in any kind of a shootout won’t be a
problem, while the defense is good enough to get by a round or two. How
balanced are they? There are five double-digit scorers on the roster all
averaging around 11 points per game. There’s experienced depth, plenty
of battle-tested veterans, and the overall makeup to make a deep run.
Strengths:
Shooting.
Everyone can score inside or out and there isn’t any one player who
dominates. Defenses will have to deal with every option, all the time,
and they’ll have to handle an attack that hits about eight
three-pointers a game. Head coach Sean Miller has a tourney tested team
that’s been in the trenches, losing a battle to Ohio State last year.
Defensively, they rank 43rd in the country allowing fewer
than 63 points per outing. Most importantly, the D is able to take out
every opposing team’s top option.
Weaknesses: A go-to guy. While having so many options is a plus,
there isn’t one player who can carry the team out of a rough patch. Many
great teams have fallen to the wayside simply because they didn’t have
anyone that wanted the ball in the crunch. Even so, senior forward
Stanley Burrell has the ability to carry the team at times, while Drew
Lavender is a savvy veteran who won’t wilt under the pressure.
Players You Should Care About: Xavier doesn’t have one player on
its roster that shines brighter than the rest, but it has a few with NBA
potential in Josh Duncan and Derrick Brown. Lavender is the sparkplug
that makes this engine go and needs to have a strong all-around
tournament to lead the way.
Best Wins:
Indiana
80-65; Kansas State 103-77
Worst
Losses:
at Arizona State 77-55; at Miami Univ. 78-59
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the second
round. There's too much firepower for Georgia, but Purdue will grind its
way to a tough upset in the second round.
No. 14 Georgia
Bulldogs
– SEC (17-16, 4-12 in the SEC)
Basically: Screw the NCAA Tournament. Georgia simply put on the
story of the season, and an all-timer among conference tournaments, by
winning three games in two days, starting with an overtime win over
Kentucky and finishing up with a title win over Arkansas. Lost in the
run was an overtime win over Mississippi in the opening round to make
the legs that much more rubbery three games later. How improbable was
the run? The Bulldogs were the second-worst team in the SEC tied with
Auburn on the league’s bottom after the regular season, and had
completely fallen off the map losing 11 of 13 games up until the SEC
tournament.
Strengths: After the SEC title run, heart. The Dawgs are playing
with extreme confidence in what has quickly turned into a charmed year.
Timely three-point shooting, which wasn’t there all season, has now been
the norm, but they got to the tournament on hustle and rebounding.
Everyone hits the boards with center Dave Bliss playing well at just the
right time.
Weaknesses: Playing basketball. The improbable stretch
notwithstanding, this simply isn’t that good a team. It’s not good at
shooting, it’s not particularly strong at passing, there are too many
turnovers and not enough defense to overcome the limitations. There’s a
reason the Dawgs were 4-12 in the mediocre SEC during the regular
season.
Players You Should Care About: While everyone played a huge role
in the title stretch, the one steady offensive weapon, as it was all
season, was guard Sundiata Gaines. The 6-1 senior has been a consistent
double-digit scorer over his career, but it wasn’t until the SEC
tournament when he scores 22 against Ole Miss, 16 against Kentucky and
20 against Mississippi State did his work lead to wins. While he didn’t
light up Arkansas scoring 11 points, he did a great job of feeding
everyone else. On the boards, the 6-10, 255-pound Bliss has to be a
monster. He got 11 boards against the Hogs and has to grab double-digit
boards for the Dawgs to advance.
Best Wins: Mississippi State 64-60; Arkansas 66-57 (SEC
Championship)
Worst Losses: East Tennessee State 76-58; Tulane 70-69
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: There will always be
the miraculous SEC tournament run to look back on.
No. 6 Purdue
Boilermakers
– Big Ten (24-8, 15-3 in the Big Ten)
Basically: Head coach Matt Painter did a magnificent job last
year taking Purdue from the bottom of the Big Ten to the tournament
where Florida ended the fun, and now everyone took notice as his team
was in the hunt for the regular season conference title up until the
end. And then came the Big Ten tournament with a clunker of a loss to
Illinois to take the bloom off the rose. Even so, it’s been a great
stepping-stone year for a hot young team. Freshmen E’Twaun Moore and
Robbie Hummel eased the loss of two key starters, Carl Landry and David
Teague, and now the tough team that plays with far more poise than it
should, considering its youth, and has the potential to be a Final Four
dark horse. There’s nothing flashy here, there’s little outside shooting
and a lot of hacking, but the results are there with the youngsters
maturing as the year went on.
Strengths: Defense. The Boilermakers make up for a mediocre
offense with a suffocating defense that’s good at pressuring the ball
and strong on the inside. While the offensive attack isn’t always
consistent, it’s able to keep up the pace in shootouts and is versatile
enough to slug it out in the grinder games.
Weaknesses: Fouls and shooting. This is an outside shooting team
that doesn’t necessarily live and die by the three, but it doesn’t have
a consistent offensive inside presence to pick up the slack when the
shots aren’t falling. Defensively, the Boilermakers might be tough and
aggressive, but they also commit a ton of fouls and are likely to be on
the wrong end of the free throw shooting battle in the tight games.
Players You Should Care About: Purdue has a three player attack
that takes turns sharing the workload. Guards E’Twaun Moore and Keaton
Grant and forward Robbie Hummel are double digit scorers, can rebound,
and are great at working the ball around. While the scoring can come
from anywhere on the nine-deep rotation, Hummel, the team’s best
rebounder and best all-around player, is the one teams have to worry
about. He does all the little things well.
Best Wins: Louisville 67-59; at Wisconsin 72-67
Worst Losses: Iowa State 83-80; Wofford 69-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: The stunning early
exit in the Big Ten tournament might be just what the team needed. The
tough defense will be rested and very, very nasty in wins over Baylor
and Xavier before falling to West Virginia or Duke.
No. 11 Baylor Bears
– Big 12 (21-10, 9-7 in the Big 12)
Basically: In what has to be considered one of the greatest
turnarounds in the history of college sports, Baylor basketball was
obliterated by penalties, including no non-conference schedule in
2005-2006, to go along with major recruiting restrictions, but head
coach Scott Drew kept building, and now four years after coming aboard
he has a veteran team that overcame the adversity and is ready to bask
in the tournament glow. Tested by a decent non-conference schedule and
with a great 16-2 start, excitement was high, and then a rough patch of
six losses in seven games to all but end post-season hopes (coming after
the epic five-overtime win over Texas A&M). Losing in the Big 12
tournament against Colorado, the league’s worst team, made things very,
very dicey. The program is used to rallying, and it did as it took
advantage of the light late schedule to get into the dance.
Strengths: Scoring, especially from three. While Kevin Rogers is
a good inside presence, the Bears are all about shoot from three, where
it’s been among the best in the country all year. There’s not a whole
bunch of ball movement, but the guards are able to create their own
shots in the up-tempo, efficient offense. BU is all but automatic on the
line hitting 74% of their free throws.
Weaknesses: Good teams. Baylor beats the weak and the sad, and
struggles against anyone with a pulse. The defense just isn’t any good
against the better offenses. The defense commits a ton of fouls, close
to 21 per game. For Baylor to win, the three has to fall early and
often, and it can’t get beaten up on the boards.
Players You Should Care About: The Bears have a balanced offense
with six players over or hovering around a double-digit average, but the
left-handed Curtis Jerrells is the ringleader. The junior veteran isn’t
afraid to take any three-pointer and has improved at getting the ball to
everyone else. On an average passing team, Jerrells is the best of the
bunch.
Best Wins: at Notre Dame 68-64; Kansas State 92-86
Worst Losses: Arkansas 85-78; Colorado 91-84 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the first
round. The Bear outside shooting game will have too many problems with
the Purdue defense.
