2008 March
Madness - Midwest
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
East |
South |
West
Midwest Bracket
No. 1 Kansas
Jayhawks
– Big 12 (31-3, 13-3 in the Big 12)
Basically: Easily one of the most disappointing tournament teams
over the last several years, at least on a consistent basis considering
the expectations in Lawrence, this should be the team that
finally gets over the hump in the Bill Self era, even if this was
considered to be a bit of a rebuilding season. Another Elite Eight might
not do it this time; it’s Final Four or bust for the Big 12 champions.
One of the nation’s most balanced and versatile teams, the Jayhawks can
run, grind, slow it down or speed it up. The time is now for Self to get
to his first Final Four.
Strengths: Blowing teams away. When KU has a chance to go for the
jugular, it’s over. With the average win coming by more than 20 points,
few teams are able to put their foot on the offensive gas and go on a
run like this one. The offense is great at not making mistakes,
fantastic at moving the ball around and finding the open man, and
tremendous at shooting inside and out, the offense can do it all.
Weaknesses: Teams with a pulse. Is KU the real deal? The three
losses came on the road to Kansas State, Texas, two strong tournament
teams, and Oklahoma State, who’ll go to the NIT. The Big 12 championship
win over the Longhorns will only jack up the expectations even more, and
KU hasn’t exactly flourished when the spotlight has been on Self’s
teams. Most of the close calls have come against teams like Arizona, USC,
and Georgia Tech. Oh sure, there will be a major blowout or two to get
to the Elite Eight, but then there will be the big test for the team and
Self. Neither has passed in recent tournaments.
Players You Should Care About: The bad: Brandon Rush is coming
off a torn ACL. The good; Brandon Rush is coming off a torn ACL. Had the
junior not suffered the injury in an off-season pickup game, he’d have
most likely been off to the NBA instead of working his way back to being
among the team’s most dangerous weapons. While he might not have all the
same explosion, he’s still an effective scorer because the rest of the
offense is so effective. With Rush still mending, sophomore forward
Darrell Arthur has turned into the player everyone hoped he’d become.
Not only does he lead the team in scoring, but he has also established
himself as a steady and strong rebounder.
Best Wins: Baylor 100-90; Kansas State 88-74; Texas 84-74 (Big 12
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Kansas State 84-75; at Oklahoma State 61-60
Pete Fiutak's Tournament
Prediction: National
championship. The potential matchups to
get to the Final Four are terrific, and
there's more than enough firepower to
get by anyone from the East, including
North Carolina. Bill Self finally gets
over the hump and shows he belongs among
the elite head coaches.
No. 16 Portland State Vikings
– Big Sky (23-9, 14-2 in the Big Sky)
Basically: Portland State is off
to the tournament for the first time in
its history after blowing past Northern
Arizona 67-51 in the Big Sky
Championship. Red hot after winning 14
of their last 15 games, the Vikings are
a dangerous sleeper with a tremendous
outside shooting game and good enough
defense and rebounding to get by. While
there are some brutally ugly losses on
the résumé, losing to horrible Colorado
State and UC Davis teams, and there
aren’t any wins of note, this is the
type of team that can get hot for a game
and pull off a tourney shocker.
Strengths: Three-point shooting.
Among the best in the nation from beyond
the arc, the Vikings, led by Jeremiah
Dominguez, average 8.9 three-pointers
per game and aren’t afraid to keep
bombing away even when things aren’t
going well. Everyone passes well and
everyone is good at working the ball
around to find the open man for the
three.
Weaknesses: Inside defense. Even
with a big presence inside in Scott
Morrison, teams have no problems getting
to the basket and have no problem
putting up big points from the outside.
The Vikings aren’t a run-and-gun team
and keep things relatively slow paced,
which keeps the scoring down, but there
are way too many turnovers which will
allow anyone with a decent transition
game to get quick points.
Players You Should Care About:
Dominguez leads the Vikings with 14.3
points per game, is the top passer
averaging 4.1 assists per outing and is
good for two rebounds a game. Oh yeah,
and he’s a mere 5-6 and 150 pounds.
Lightning quick, he’s always able to
find openings and get his three-point
shot off. When he’s on, like he was in a
blowout over Montana State when he made
five of six three pointers and the game
after against Montana hitting six of
eight, the Vikings are deadly.
Best Wins: IUPUI 75-73; Northern
Arizona 67-51 (Big Sky Championship)
Worst Losses: at Colorado
State 64-63; UC Davis 76-68
Pete Fiutak's Tournament
Prediction: The first trip to
the NCAA tournament will not be
pleasant.
No. 8 UNLV Rebels
– Mountain West Conference (26-7, 12-4 in MWC)
Basically: The Rebels only dropped four games in the Mountain
West and went undefeated at home in conference play for the second year
in a row, but it was the blowout win over BYU for the Mountain West
title that ended all talk of being on the bubble. Lon Kruger’s club
proved to be resilient throughout as it never lost back-to-back games
while knocking off each of the conference stars. They showed they can
get the job done on the road early on this season with wins at San Diego
and Northern Arizona, and after a tremendous run in last year’s
tournament, highlighted by the win over Wisconsin, the team is still in
place to get past the first weekend.
Strengths: Toughness. Time and again, the Rebels were challenged
in key games and kept finding ways to win. While the offense is limited,
the defense keeps the team in games forcing opponents to shoot around
40% from the field and score fewer than 62 points per game. They also
haul in close to 24 defensive rebounds per game that grossly limits its
opponent’s possessions. They ranked second in conference free throw
shooting while conversing a shade over 74% from the line.
Weaknesses: Offense. Even though Kruger’s kids would prefer to
get out and be the Runnin’ Rebels, they averaged a hair under 70 points
per game and shot around 42%. There’s not a whole bunch of size and
there’s not a lot of depth, so if the guards aren’t on, there will be
problems. The team wore down as the season went on, and if it has to go
against anyone who can bang, there likely won’t be the inside play
needed to advance.
Players You Should Care About: Lightning fast Wink Adams is the
team’s leading scorer ringing in close to 16 points per game, while
seniors Joe Darger and Curtis Terry are great running mates averaging
close to 11 and 12 points per game, respectively. Surprisingly, the team
leader in rebounds Rene Rougeau is a guard, but he’s not your
prototypical perimeter player. At 6-6, he’s the team’s toughest player
top ball thief, and best shot blocker.
Best Wins: BYU 70-41; New Mexico 79-60; BYU 76-61 (MWC
Championship)
Worst Losses: Arizona 52-49; at BYU 74-48
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the second
round against Kansas. Kent State doesn't have the inside game to beat
the Rebels in the first round, but the Jayhawks will be about to go on a
big run early to get by in the second.
No. 9 Kent State Golden
Flashes –
Mid American Conference (28-6, 13-3 in MAC)
Basically: KSU found itself back in a familiar role after
upending Akron 61-58 in its final game of the regular season to win the
MAC regular season title, and then rolled through the conference
tournament finishing up with a 74-55 win over the Zips. After opening up
the MAC play by winning six of its first seven games, and closing out by
winning 11 of its last 12, this is a hot team at the right time. With a
tough, aggressive defense, this is going to be a pain in the butt team
to deal with in the first round or two.
Strengths:
Aggressive D. The Golden Flashes held opponents to just under 63 points
per game on just over 41% shooting from the field, and while the idea is
to keep things relatively slow to force offenses to work for shots, the
transition game is excellent. They picked apart the MAC stealing
everything in sight and forced almost 17 turnovers per game. When the D
is working, the offense takes advantage.
Weaknesses: The glass. Rebounding hasn’t always been a problem,
but it’s not a strength getting beaten by the bigger teams with strong
inside games while doing a decent job against the smaller, quicker
teams. Physical glass cleaning teams should be able to have their way
with the interior. The MAC, as a whole, doesn’t boast the toughest
competition, even though the conference came up with a couple of nice
non-conference wins. When matched up against a team from a power
conference, KSU will have its hands full.
Players You Should Care About: Guard Al Fisher was just named
the MAC player of the year averaging over 14 points and four assists per
game. He doesn’t miss from the line and doesn’t make many mistakes.
While not huge, forwards Mike Scott and Hamin Quaintance are strong, at
times, on the boards combining for close to 14 rebounds per game.
Best Wins: Illinois State 65-59; George Mason 73-55; Akron 74-55
(MAC Championship)
Worst Losses: Detroit 61-60; at Bowling Green 89-83
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out in the first
round. KSU's D isn't as good as UNLV's.
No. 5 Clemson Tigers
– ACC (24-9, 10-6 in the ACC)
Basically: Head coach Oliver Purnell has taken the program from
the bottom to respectability in a few years with an experienced group
that battled its way off the bubble with a decent ACC season and a run
to the conference championship game where it lost to North Carolina.
There’s no shame in finishing third in the regular season behind the Tar
Heels and Duke, but even with the good talent in place, and with so much
on the line late in the year, losses at Miami, Florida State and Georgia
Tech made it a tougher road to get in than it should’ve been. The
veterans are there, there’s good depth, the defense is nasty, and
there’s plenty of excitement after missing out on the post-season fun
for the last ten years. This Clemson team won’t just be happy to break
the drought.
Strengths: Pressure defense. The ACC’s most aggressive D forces
tons of mistakes to fuel the offense. One of the tournament’s most
balanced scoring teams, there are six strong options and no one player
who’ll bring down the offense if he isn’t hot. Any team with average,
sloppy guards will get destroyed, but while Clemson takes it away …
Weaknesses: … it also gives it up. This isn’t exactly a stingy
offense turning it over around 15 times per game, and fouls have been a
big problem all year. Worst of all, this is a horrific free-throw
shooting bunch (as evidenced in the ACC Championship), and it will
likely be the Achilles heel in a tight pressure moment. There’s a
ceiling on how far a team can go when it keeps losing the free-throw
shooting margin.
Players You Should Care About: One of the ACC’s best sixth men
throughout the first part of his career, junior K.C. Rivers has
blossomed into Clemson’s best all-around weapon with a tremendous stroke
from the outside and good quickness to get to the basket. While he’s not
all that huge at 6-5 and 215 pounds, he’s a solid rebounder. Rivers
leads the team in scoring, and he might have to do even more if No. 2
scorer Cliff Hammonds has problems with a broken wrist on his
non-shooting hand. While it wasn’t an immediate issue, it’s not a plus
considering he’s the team’s leading assist man.
Best Wins: Purdue 61-58; Miami 79-69
Worst Losses: Charlotte 82-72; at Georgia Tech 80-75
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Upset. Villanova is
an awful, awful first round opponent for a Tiger team that makes way too
many mistakes.
No. 12
Villanova Wildcats
– Big East (20-12, 9-9 in the Big East)
Basically: A mid-season five-game losing streak dropping six in
seven games put the Wildcats on the outside of the bubble, but with just
enough decent wins over teams like Pitt, West Virginia, and with a
blowout over Syracuse in the Big East tournament, they just barely got
in. Hot to start the year with a 10-1 record, inconsistency has been the
norm. More than anything else, there hasn’t been any one thing to rely
on game in and game out and there haven’t been enough good performances
against the better Big East teams.
Strengths: Forcing mistakes. The guard-oriented attack is
fantastic at pressuring the ball and forcing steals, and it’s not that
bad at making the extra pass to keep the offense moving. In a perfect
world the guards are running and getting on the move and to the free
throw line. The Wildcats hit an impressive 72% of their free throws, but
…
Weaknesses: There are way, way too many fouls. There’s a lot of
hacking going on inside and out, and for a team that doesn’t shoot
particularly well, getting down early is usually a death sentence.
There’s no consistent inside presence to feed the ball to on a regular
basis.
Players You Should Care About: This isn’t a three-point shooting
team, but what production there is usually comes from sophomore Scottie
Reynolds. Last year’s Big East Rookie of the Year had an even better
year, but he faded a bit down the stretch. When he was nailing the
three, like he did against Syracuse, the Wildcat offense had a weapon to
rely on every time down the court. Good enough to get to the hoop any
time he wants to and quick enough to create his own outside shot, he has
to take over early.
Best Wins: Pitt 64-63; West Virginia 78-56
Worst Losses: at DePaul 84-76; at Cincinnati 69-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Second round loss to
Vanderbilt. The defense will force Clemson to screw up, and the Tiger
free throw shooting will be just bad enough for the Wildcats to get by.
No. 4 Vanderbilt
Commodores
– SEC (26-7, 10-6 in the SEC)
Basically: Coming off a strong run to the Elite Eight, where it
lost to in a one-point heartbreaker to Georgetown, Vandy came out
red-hot with a 16-0 start before dropping four of its first five SEC
games with all the losses on the road. To make the season even more
bizarre and streaky, the Commodores ripped off seven straight wins,
including a win over No. 1 Tennessee, and then lost a few days later to
Arkansas. The Hogs struck again in the SEC tournament with an 81-75 win.
Even so, thanks to 6-10 newcomer A.J. Ogilvy, the offense has an inside
scorer to go along with the normal Vandy outside gunners, and now the
team appears ready for another big tournament.
Strengths: Hitting from three. One of the best shooting teams in
America, connecting on over 40% of its three point attempts, Vandy’s
offense can turn a game around in a heartbeat, or can get back from
almost any deficit. Just ask Kentucky, who got its doors blown off
getting down 41-11 at halftime and got down by 43 in the second half
when it couldn’t handle the Commodore shooting.
Weaknesses: Defense. Anyone who can score will do it without much
of a problem on the porous Vandy D. The guards don’t cover anyone, there
are no steals, and there’s little in the way of rebounding, so if the
three point shooting runs dry, there will be big problems. Yes, Ogilvy
can play inside, but this isn’t a team built for banging.
Players You Should Care About: Ogilvy, an import from Australia,
is one of the few Commodores who doesn’t shoot from the outside, but
that’s more than fine. He’s great at getting to the line, helps clean up
the long range misses, and isn’t that bad a passer. On the flip-side to
Mr. Inside is Mr. Outside, Shan Foster, who can stroke it from anywhere.
When he’s on, he’s breathtaking nailing nine of 15 from three in a
42-point outing against Mississippi State. He went from being a top
scorer to a red-hot gunner at the right time.
Best Wins: Tennessee 72-69; Mississippi State 86-85 OT
Worst Losses: at Mississippi 74-58; at Alabama 78-73 OT
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Sweet 16 before losing
Kansas. The Commodores will simply outgun Sienna and the
Clemson/Villanova winner, but Kansas will be too potent. The Vandy D
will give up 90 to the Jayhawks.
No. 13 Siena Saints
– MAAC (22-10, 13-5 in the MAAC)
Basically: Siena might not do much in the tournament, and it
might not be all that great, but it’s a whole bunch of fun to watch. If
nothing else it’ll go down swinging with one of the best offenses in
America. It’s been a strange team able to beat Stanford and its two
seven-footers, the Lopez brothers, despite having no size whatsoever.
Keeping things fast paced is its style, but it got obliterated by 44
against Memphis and there have been losses to the dregs, Fairfield and
Manhattan, and a blowout win over Rider in the MAAC Championship. While
flaky, the firepower is there to make things interesting.
Strengths: Scoring. Up and down the floor, keeping things moving,
and shooting, shooting; shooting, Siena is all about offense. Without
any inside presence, and not enough three point shooting considering
there are guards who can hit from outside, the Saints have to get
involved in a street game and run, run, and keep running. Even with all
the scoring and all the offensive punch, this is a stingy team with the
ball and there aren’t many fouls committed.
Weaknesses: Defense and size. Anyone who can rebound will do it
without breathing hard. Without any real size inside, the Saints get
outboarded by everyone and they get picked apart inside the three. .Oh
sure, there will be points put on the board, but they’ll give them up
just as quickly.
Players You Should Care About: There’s a three-man scoring attack
that keeps defenses guessing. Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex
Franklin all average over 15 points per game and all can get take over
the offense. While decent from midrange, Franklin does most of his work
inside. Ubiles was one of the MAAC’s best players and a pure scorer who
makes things happen. Hasbrouck does a little of everything with a great
burst to the bucket and a good outside game.
Best Wins: Stanford 79-67; Rider 74-53 (MAAC Championship)
Worst Losses: Fairfield 53-52; at Manhattan 73-72
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
The Saints will get
their licks in against Vandy in a fun shootout, but they won't have
enough in the bag to pull out the upset. It'll be close, though.
No. 2 Georgetown
Hoyas –
Big East (27-5, 15-3 in the Big East)
Basically: The Big East regular season champion has the makeup to
get back to the Final Four, but does it have the talent? Big East Player
of the Year Jeff Green left early for the NBA, but 7-2 NBA center Roy
Hibbert didn’t, choosing to return for his senior season giving the team
a focal point to work around. This might not be last year’s team with
Green gone, but it finds ways to hold together through tough games and
has gotten tighter as the season has gone on, the Big East tournament
final loss to Pitt notwithstanding. Considering how nasty the Big East
has been, getting through the wars and finishing on top (or in second if
you believe the tournament means more than the regular season) shows how
tough the Hoyas are, but unless players like DaJuan Summers and Jonathan
Wallace can do even more to help out Hibbert, there might be a ceiling
on how high they can go.
Strengths: Defense. Helped mostly by the big man in the middle,
Hoya opponents shoot just 36%, lowest in the nation. The guards might
not force a ton of mistakes, but they’re ultra-aggressive and tough as
nails. While this isn’t a high-octane offensive team, it shoots well
inside and out with just enough balance to handle almost any defense.
It’s a good working formula: play great defense, take the open shot, and
don’t turn the ball over. It works.
Weaknesses: Free throw shooting. There’s a problem when you play
in tight defensive games like the Hoyas are going to want to do; you
have to come through on the line. It hasn’t been a killer so far, but
the mediocre free throw shooting, averaging around 67%, might be just
enough of an Achilles heel to get upset.
Players You Should Care About: Hibbert has been fine, but has he
been NBA lottery dominant? At times, yeah. He’s been a more consistent
scorer over the second half of the season while becoming an even
stronger defensive presence, but he’s not the issue. Summers, a 6-8
forward was supposed to fill the void left by Green’s departure, but it
hasn’t quite happened. While he’s been fine, he went scoreless in a loss
at Pitt, scored nine in the Big East final, struggled in key late wins
over Marquette and Louisville, and was non-existent in an earlier loss
to the Cardinals. The Hoyas can get by most teams as is, but to beat the
really big boys, Summers has to be a breakout star.
Best Wins: Notre Dame 84-65; Louisville 55-52
Worst Losses: at Pitt 69-60; at Syracuse 77-70
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Sweet 16 loss to
Wisconsin. The Badgers and Hoyas might play the toughest defensive game
of the tournament. The Badgers will make their free throws, the Hoyas
will miss theirs.
No. 15 UMBC
Retrievers
– America East (24-8, 13-3 in America East)
Basically: The best team in the America East conference all
season long, UMBC proved it by blowing away Hartford 82-65 to earn the
automatic bid. With a four player offensive attack, led by three
transfers Ray Barbosa, Darryl Proctor and Cavell Johnson, the Retrievers
play smart and efficient with a slew of options to work into the attack.
While there weren’t any wins of note, they played relatively well at
Ohio State and had no real problems in conference play with the three
league losses coming by a total of seven points. Outside of a tough
one-point loss at Hartford, they won 12 of their final 13 games.
Strengths: Holding on to the ball. Considering the Retrievers
aren’t afraid to move it and aren’t shy about chucking from deep,
they’re shockingly good at not screwing up turning it over a mere 9.5
times per game, the fewest in the nation. Great at moving the ball
around, they’re excellent at finding the open man and knocking down the
three.
Weaknesses: Rebounding. There are only two players with any sort
of size, Tyler Massey and Uwem Eshietedoho, and they almost never play.
This is a small, quick team that’ll be destroyed on the boards by anyone
with any talent and beef upfront. The outside shots have to fall because
there won’t be many second chances for put backs. Proctor’s the team’s
best rebounder and he’s only 6-4.
Players You Should Care About: Barbosa’s the team’s best scorer,
but it was Proctor who went ballistic down the stretch. After being held
to six points in a win over Boston University, he cranked out 22, 14,
21, 14, 17 and 17 points over a six-game stretch before hitting ten of
14 shots on the way to a 23-point outing in the title game. While he’s
not big, he’s not an outside shooter by any stretch; his points come on
the inside.
Best Wins: at American 83-68; Hartford 82-65 (America East
Championship)
Worst Losses: at Lafayette 87-84 OT; Binghamton 62-59
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Pushed out early by
Georgetown. The Hoyas will dominate on the boards.
No. 7 Gonzaga
Bulldogs
– West Coast (25-7, 13-1 in the West Coast)
Basically: Is Gonzaga now getting by on reputation? After almost
a decade in the spotlight, the Bulldogs have no problem in the respect
department, but while they had a few nice wins, they didn’t beat the top
teams on the schedule losing to Washington State, Oklahoma, Tennessee
and Memphis. Even so, they rolled through the West Coast Conference on
their way to yet another title, but San Diego got in the way in the
league title game. The Zags might not be the WCC champs, but they’ll
once again be a dangerous out with a deep, balanced team that shoots
lights-out and is fantastic on the boards.
Strengths: Shooting. Great inside and out, the Bulldogs have
options to bomb away from three, to produce on the inside, in
transition, and everywhere in between. While good defenses can slow
things down, like Washington State and San Diego were able to do, this
is a deep offensive attack that can open it up on anyone.
Weaknesses: Actually winning the big games. Oh sure, it’s great
to put up stats against Loyola Marymount, Portland and Pepperdine, but
coming up with the big wins have been tough. Getting focused shouldn’t
be a problem, but can the Zags just turn it back on after getting beaten
by San Diego? Against the above-average teams, they tend to play to the
competition and haven’t done anything that special.
Players You Should Care About: There are several offensive
weapons to deal with, but the focus has to be on junior point guard
Jeremy Pargo, the team’s leading assist man and second leading scorer.
Tough as nails, he’s not afraid to go inside and mix it up, while he’s
good at shooting from midrange. He has to find his three-point shot
again after going 3-for-27 in the last seven games.
Best Wins: at Connecticut 85-82; St. Mary’s 88-76
Worst Losses: Texas Tech 73-63, San Diego 69-62 (WCC
Championship)
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: One and done. Gonzaga
has been inconsistent all season long, and it won't have an answer for
Davidson's Stephen Curry.
No. 10 Davidson
Wildcats
– Southern (26-6, 20-0 in the Southern)
Basically: Part of the joy of the NCAA Tournament is seeing how
the under-the-radar little guys do on the biggest stage. Davidson, led
by deadly scorer Stephen Curry, went 20-0 in the Southern Conference,
blew through the league tournament, and comes in on a 22-game winning
streak, but it beat absolutely no one. However, the Wildcats pushed Duke
in a six-point loss, lost to North Carolina by four, and battled UCLA
before getting blown away late. The sneaky-sleeper of last year got
blasted as a 13-seed by Maryland, but this year’s team is much better
and much more dangerous.
Strengths: Curry. The son of former NBA star Dell Curry was the
SoCon’s best player as a freshman, and continued his rise with a
fantastic second season despite being the target of every defense. While
he looks like he should break in half at 6-3 and a slight 180 pounds,
he’s tough to the hoop and can score on anyone. He put up 24 on North
Carolina, 20 on Duke, and was held to “just” 15 by UCLA. The only other
times he’s been kept in check have been in blowouts when he came out
early.
Weaknesses: The competition. After weeks of fattening up on the
mediocre, what’s going to happen when the Wildcats have to face a real
live team again? There have been a few close games, but they haven’t
been really tested in 2008.
Players You Should Care About: Curry is the signature star, and
he has his bodyguards. Boris Meno, Thomas Sander, and Andrew Lovedale
are 6-8 bangers who’ll each grab about five rebounds and beat up
everyone inside. However, these aren’t the college basketball version of
the Hanson brothers; they can all score a little bit. While those three
make things happen inside, Jason Richards is the outside bomber. Feeding
off the attention paid to Curry, Richards is the top assist man and most
dangerous three-point threat, even though he closed out the year
connecting on one of his last 13 attempts.
Best Wins: at Winthrop 60-47; Elon 65-49 (Southern Championship)
Worst Losses: at Western Michigan 83-76; at Charlotte 75-68
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Second round loss to
Georgetown. Curry will get his, but the front line isn't there to pull
off an upset to get to the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 3 Wisconsin
Badgers –
Big Ten (29-4, 16-2 in the Big Ten)
Basically: In what might have been Bo Ryan’s finest coaching job
yet, Wisconsin went from being a preseason afterthought, at best a
middle of the pack Big Ten pick, to the regular season and tournament
champion with no stars and absolutely no pizzazz. With a blend of
suffocating defense and timely play, especially on the road, the Badgers
did more than just rebuild, it came together to become a regular in the
top ten. While this is a limited team, it doesn’t screw up, is
ultra-efficient offensively, and is as well coached as any in the
nation. It also annoys the heck out of everyone with its …
Strengths: Defense, defense, defense. The nation’s leader
throughout the year in scoring D, allowing teams to average around 54
points per game, the Badgers don’t let offenses get into any sort of a
rhythm. That’s a function of a slowwwwww, deliberate offense which tends
to lull teams to sleep and forces mistakes when opposing teams can’t
run. More than anything else, they don’t allow offensive rebounds and
rarely put anyone on the line ranking among the top five teams in the
country in fewest fouls committed.
Weaknesses: There isn’t even a hint of offensive explosion.
Everything revolves around the defense, but when opponents start to get
hot and start to ramp up the tempo, the Badgers have a hard time keeping
up. It’s no coincidence that they’re 29-1 when holding opponents to
under 70 points, and 0-3 when allowing more than 70. For good and bad,
the offense spreads the wealth around and doesn’t have a pure scorer.
Players You Should Care About: Brian Butch, a.k.a. The Polar
Bear, didn’t get in on the fun of last year’s post-season having
dislocated his elbow in an ugly fall against Ohio State late in the
year. Now, the near-seven footer has done a little bit of everything as
the team’s leading scorer, rebounder, and leader. The former McDonald’s
All-American has finally lived up to his potential after having overcome
a slew of setbacks from injuries, to a battle with mono, to the dreaded
“overrated” tag. On a deep team of jack-of-all-trade players, Butch is
the one who has to set the tone both on the boards and with the big
shot.
Best Wins: at Texas 67-66; at Indiana 68-66; Illinois 61-48 (Big
Ten Championship)
Worst Losses: Marquette 81-76; Purdue 72-67
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction:
Elite Eight. Screwed
over with a third seed, the Badgers will be properly motivated for a big
run before getting knocked out by Kansas. However, it'll be a nightmare
to get out of the first round.
No. 14 Cal State
Fullerton Titans
– Big West (24-8, 12-4 in the Big West)
Basically: If you’re looking for a deep, dark sleeper that could
get silly-hot for a weekend and pull off some mega-upsets to be the
story of the first round, the Big West champions have a puncher’s chance
of being it. This isn’t a very good team, but it’s a whole bunch of fun
with one of the nation’s most potent offenses on a big-time hot streak.
Winners of their last six and 14 of their last 16, the Titans bombed
their way into the tournament after a stunningly easy run through the
Big West post-season. However, they haven’t really done much against the
good teams this year losing to the other two regular season
co-champions, UC Santa Barbara twice while going 2-1 vs. Cal State
Northridge. There are no non-conference wins of note with the one big
moment, a November date with Arizona, a 91-65 disaster. However, no one
wants to face them because of their …
Strengths: Offense. Get ready see some running and some intense
pressure as the quick guards are great at forcing steals as Bob Burton’s
team is all about keeping things moving and forcing the action. Fifth in
the nation in scoring averaging close to 83 points per game, the Titans
are more than happy to get in a shootout, and ecstatic when anyone tries
to get into a three-point shooting contest.
Weaknesses: Size. Fullerton has some big guys, but they don’t
play. On quickness and hustle there are plenty of rebounds and a
not-that-bad defense (at times) because of all the steals, but anyone
who wants to get to the basket can do it without a problem. Opponents
shoot 47% from the field and there will be plenty of easy scores from
everywhere on the floor.
Players You Should Care About: Despite leading the team with 19.8
points per game to go along with three rebounds per outing, 5-11,
185-pound junior Josh Akognon didn’t make the All-Big West team. He
seemed intent on proving everyone wrong by scoring 57 points in the
three-game tournament helped by nailing eight of 19 from three. He needs
to put up big numbers, while Frank Robinson and Scott Cutley have to do
all the dirty work on the boards. The Titans are out instantly if those
two don’t combine for at least 15 rebounds.
Best Wins: Cal State Northridge 83-68; UC Irvine 81-66 (Big West
Championship)
Worst Losses: Central Michigan 79-76; at Arizona 91-65
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Out right away, but
the Titans will throw a big-time scare into Wisconsin. There just isn't
the interior to handle the Badger big front.
No. 6 USC Trojans
– Pac 10 (21-11, 11-7 in the Pac 10)
Basically: Fla-keee. After a nice 25-win season and a Sweet 16
run, the Trojans were supposed to overcome some NBA losses with top
freshman O.J. Mayo coming to town. And then the tone was set for the
season with a 96-81 loss to Mercer in the opener. While there were tough
battles in losses to Kansas and Memphis, when Tim Floyd’s club proved it
could play with anyone in the nation, there were blowout losses to
Washington State, a home blasting from Arizona, and an ugly road
performance against Arizona State. Just when the team appeared to be the
working definition of On The Bubble, it blew out Stanford and had a nice
showing in the Pac 10 tournament avenging the ASU loss and battling UCLA
in a 57-54 semifinal loss. This is one of the tournament’s most athletic
teams, and it’s not just Mayo, but while it could beat anyone, it could
also get bounced right away.
Strengths: Getting to the basket. This isn’t a bad mid-to-outside
shooting team, and it hits the threes when it chooses to take them, but
the offense revolves around getting in close and making things happen.
While this might seem like a fun offensive attack, and it is, its bread
is buttered on defense with an aggressive style that doesn’t take the
ball away, but it doesn’t commit fouls, either.
Weaknesses: Passing. There’s a lot of one-on-one offense with
little extra passing to make things happen. Since this isn’t necessarily
an outside shooting team, crisp passing isn’t quite at a premium, but if
the defense isn’t generating points off transition, and it Mayo isn’t
on, the offense struggles.
Players You Should Care About: No, he’s not Kobe Bryant, but Mayo
has been a consistent scorer who can score inside and out, and while
he’s hardly a banger, he’s a slippery rebounder who always seems to be
around the ball. UCLA was able to shut him down late in the year with a
four-point outing in 40 minutes, but that was his only game under 12
points. Yes, he’s the real deal who has gotten better as the season has
gone on. Like Mayo, Davon Jefferson will be off to the NBA next year.
After initially signing with UNLV, he had academic troubles before
coming to USC, and while he hasn’t been a consistent scorer, he’s been a
good rebounder and a key inside playmaker.
Best Wins: at UCLA 72-63; Stanford 77-64
Worst Losses: Mercer 96-81; at Arizona State 80-66
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Loss to Wisconsin in
the second round. The Trojans will break down against the Badger D.
No. 11 Kansas State
Wildcats
– Big 12 (20-11, 10-6 in the Big 12)
Basically: After missing out on last year’s tournament despite a
23-12 record, the Wildcats are going dancing this time even after Bob
Huggins bolted to take the head coaching job at West Virginia. Led by
the walking double-double Michael Beasley and running mate Bill Walker,
this is a high-scoring, tough rebounding team with the type of
individual talents who can come up with a deep run. However, the
momentum has to turn around after a rough final month of the regular
season, hurt most by a streak of five losses in six games, and a 63-60
loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 tournament.
Strengths: Rebounding. Start with the 12.4 a game from Mr.
Beasley and go from there. The guards are good at getting to the glass
fueling an effective transition game. Good at moving the ball around,
everyone can pass and everyone in the regular lineup is decent at making
sure the open man gets the ball. Or, more often than not, everyone is
good at getting it to Beasley.
Weaknesses: Outside shooting. The Wildcats have three major flaws
that could turn into serious issues early in the tournament. There are
too many turnovers, way too many fouls, and not enough consistency from
three. There’s lots of clanking going on from behind the arc, but the
offense keeps trying. It helps to have a good group of rebounders to
clean up the mess.
Players You Should Care About: While Beasley is the main
attraction, Walker is also an interesting NBA prospect, or he was before
tearing his ACL early in the 2006-2007 season. He came back to clean up
with all the attention paid to B-Easy with 31 point outings against
Xavier and Baylor (both losses) while also turning into a killer on the
boards. Of course, the Wildcats will only go as far as Beasley, the
likely No. 1 pick in the next NBA draft if/when he comes out early,
takes them. Every bit as good as the hype able to dominant inside and
finish on the break, he’s been an unstoppable scoring force with only
two games with fewer than 15 points.
Best Wins: at Oklahoma 84-82; Kansas 84-75
Worst Losses: at Missouri 77-74; at Nebraska 71-64
Pete Fiutak's Tournament Prediction: Loss to USC in the
first round. Beasley will get his, but the Trojans will win in a
fantastic battle.
