2008 March
Madness - East
Fearless Predictions
By
Pete Fiutak
- Fearless Predictions ...
West Bracket |
South Bracket |
Midwest Bracket
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
Midwest |
South |
West
Once again, here are the picks/shots in the dark/expert analysis for
your NCAA men's basketball tournament. I know, this is College Football
News, but any fan of college sports is into tournament
time. Even though I've gone 260-121 (68%) over the last
six years, I apologize for once again poisoning the world with my picks
throughout the tournament.
How Are
The Picks So Far?
SU 11-4 ... ATS 7-8
East Bracket
Regional Final
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
– ACC (35-2, 14-2 in the ACC) vs.
No. 3 Louisville
Cardinals
– Big East (27-8, 14-4 in the Big East)
Why North Carolina will win: Carolina has proved, when totally
focused, that it can blow teams out with
a high-octane offense, and it proved it
can blow teams out when things slow
down. The win over Washington State was
even more impressive than the 108-77 win
over Arkansas because it showed how the
team can pick things up when Tyler
Hansbrough isn't necessarily on, and it
showed that the guards really can handle
the half-court defensive pressure that
Louisville will try to provide. The
Cardinals were solid on the line against
Tennessee, but for the most part free
throws have been an issue.
Why Louisville will win: The Cardinals have the inside presence
to keep UNC from dominating on the
boards like it needs to. Rick Pitino's
club has been even more dominant than
the Tar Heels with shockingly easy
blowouts over Oklahoma and Tennessee,
with the 30-point win over the big
Sooners showing just how well it can
handle size. This is a veteran team with
too much offensive balance for the
mediocre Tar Heel defense to shut down.
What will happen: North Carolina has made a big deal about
getting over the Regional Final hump
after hitting a wall last year, but as
well as it's playing, Louisville is
playing even better. The Cardinals have
the inside out offense to score from
wherever they want to, and the defense
that held Tennessee to just 34% from the
field, while outrebounding the Vols
42-24, will do the same to frustrate a
Tar Heel team that'll be in for its
first real challenge.
Prediction: Louisville 82 ... North
Carolina 77
Line: North Carolina -5
Final Score: COMING
Third Round
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
– ACC (34-2, 14-2 in the ACC)
vs.
No. 4 Washington State
Cougars –
Pac 10 (25-8, 11-7 in the Pac 10)
Why North Carolina will win: The offense has kicked it into high
gear at just the right time. Just when
it seemed like the Tar Heels are mortal
with a rough run through the ACC
tournament, they've blown up for 221
points in the first two games.
Washington State has been playing
unbelievable defense so far, but now it
has to show it can keep up with an
athletic team that can run. Even with
Wazzu's terrific performance, Luke
Harangody still owned the boards. UNC
should dominate on the glass; the
Cougars won't get any offensive
rebounds.
Why Washington State will win: Can the Cougars keep the pace
slow?
Notre Dame has a high-octane attack that
was kept under wraps. If they could hold
the Irish to 24% shooting, it can keep
the Tar Heels from coming up with a big
day from the perimeter.
This is a grinding Wazzu team that tends
to force teams to play at its level, and
if it can keep the Tar Heels from
getting on the move, and if it can hit
its outside shots, it has a chance. Tony
Bennett's team does all the little
things right; it's not going to lose the
free throw battle.
What will happen: With several days to prepare for the Cougar
defense, UNC will get the offense moving
a bit too much for Wazzu to keep up.
This won't be another 100-point night
for the Tar Heels, but they'll be able
to pull away late and the Cougars won't
be able to respond.
Prediction: North Carolina 73 ...
Washington State 64
Line: North Carolina -8
Final Score: North Carolina 68
... Washington State 47
No. 2 Tennessee
Volunteers
– SEC (31-4, 14-2 in the SEC) vs.
No. 3 Louisville
Cardinals
– Big East (26-8, 14-4 in the Big East)
Why Tennessee will win: Louisville can play with anyone and can run
as well as most high-octane teams, but
Tennessee can score in bunches better.
There are certainly issues with the Vols,
and they got by Butler by the skin of
their teeth, but they should be able to
match up well. The Cardinals rely on
stopping everything inside and getting
on the move in the transition game, but
Tennessee doesn't need to get inside and
it runs more efficiently.
Why Louisville will win: Getting big on the inside. If the
Cardinal defense is able to force
several mistakes on the outside, and
pressure the Tennessee guards enough to
keep the threes to a minimum, the
interior should take care of the rest.
While the Vols are extremely active on
the boards, the Cardinals are bigger and
stronger up front and should own the
rebounding battle. If the game is
grinded down to a half court battle,
Tennessee will be in big trouble.
What will happen: Louisville has played as well as anyone in the
tournament over the first two games, and
while it has the variety and the makeup
to move on, and even be a Final Four
team, it's going to struggle to be
disciplined enough not to run. Tennessee
will force this into a shootout, the
Cardinals will try to keep up, and Bruce
Pearl and company will be off to the
Elite Eight.
Prediction: Tennessee 76 ...
Louisville 73
Line: Louisville -2.5
Final Score: Louisville 79 ...
Tennessee 60
Second Round
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
– ACC (33-2, 14-2 in the ACC)
vs.
No. 9
Arkansas Razorbacks
– SEC (23-11, 9-7 in the SEC)
Why North Carolina will win: Does Arkansas have the mental makeup to
beat a powerhouse like North Carolina?
It certainly did a good job in SEC play,
and it was rock-solid in the win over
Indiana, but it's another thing to slay
the mightiest of the mighty. The Hogs
make way too many mistakes and turn the
ball over way too often, and while they
were able to get away with the problems
against Indiana, they won't against a
Tar Heel team that can crank out a
ten-point run in the blink of an eye.
Why Arkansas will win: Big men. The Hog inside presence should
give Tyler Hansbrough one of his biggest
tests of the year. UNC is the nation's
best rebounding team, but with Michael
Washington, Steven Hill, and Darian
Townes able to beat on Hansbrough and
get to the glass, the Tar Heel outside
game might have to get going.
What will happen: The ACC has proven to be mediocre so far in the
tournament, and North Carolina is way
due to be exposed. Arkansas has the team
to do it, but won't be able to withstand
a late rally and won't hit the free
throws when it has to. Sonny Weems won't
be going for 31 again, but the Hogs will
make this a battle.
Prediction: North Carolina 85 ... Arkansas
77
Line: North Carolina -11
Final Score:
North
Carolina 108 ... Arkansas 77
No. 4 Washington State
Cougars –
Pac 10 (24-8, 11-7 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Big East (25-7, 14-4 in the Big
East)
Why Notre Dame will win: Notre Dame is Washington State, but with an
offense. The Irish defense isn’t anything special and will give up
points in shootouts, but the Cougars, one big run against Winthrop
aside, aren’t the type of team that’ll explode for a huge number. As
cliché and obvious as this might be, Notre Dame could simply outscore
Wazzu.
Why Washington State will win: Washington State is Notre Dame,
but with a defense. The Cougars are just good enough defensively to
clamp down on Luke Harangody, who couldn’t be kept off the boards by
George Mason. While Wazzu might not bomb away on anyone, it has kept up
the pace all year in the Pac 10.
What will happen: Notre Dame’s offense beats Washington State’s
defense. The Irish pass the ball extremely well and should be able to
get the offense moving both in a half court set and on the move.
Prediction: Notre Dame 69 … Washington State 64
Line: Washington State -2
Final Score: Washington State 61 ... Notre Dame 41
No. 3 Louisville
Cardinals
– Big East (25-8, 14-4 in the Big East)
vs.
No. 6 Oklahoma
Sooners –
Big 12 (23-11, 9-7 in the Big 12)
Why Louisville will win: The chic Final Four pick certainly looked
the part against a Boise State team that struggled out of the gate. The
veteran, balanced Cardinal team has the firepower and consistent scoring
the Sooners don't. OU needs its defense to dominate to win, but
Louisville's O is better. UL has the big battlers on the inside to deal
with
Longar Logar
and the Sooner big inside game.
Why Oklahoma will win: The Sooners appear to be just hitting
their stride. A variety of injuries proved to be a problem throughout
the year, but the relative breather in the first round over St. Joe's
showed just how things have been progressing late in the year. Yeah,
Louisville can play inside, but it lost its last two games of the
pre-tournament season to Georgetown and Pitt; two teams that can bang.
What will happen: Oklahoma is good enough to keep this close by
using its defense to keep the score relatively low, but Louisville is
too balanced, has too good a defense, and has too much variety. The
Sooners are relatively limited compared to the Cardinals, and it'll
show.
Prediction: Louisville 73 ... Oklahoma 65
Line:
Louisville -7.5
Final Score: Louisville 78 ... Oklahoma 48
No. 2 Tennessee
Volunteers
– SEC (30-4, 14-2 in the SEC) vs.
No. 7 Butler
Bulldogs
– Horizon League (30-3, 16-2 in Horizon)
Why Tennessee will win: Don't let the Butler first round performance
against South Alabama fool you; this is an average Bulldog offense that
lives on the three. Even if BU is hitting from outside, the Vols aren't
going to be too upset. That might mean the pace will quicken that much
more. UT wants to get this thing moving.
Why Butler will win:
The 72-57
Tennessee win over American might seem like a blowout on paper, but the
Vols looked very, very sluggish and didn't pull away until late. That
can't happen against a Butler team that had everything working for a
full 40 minutes. BU's biggest problem, the inside game, won't be an
issue against the running Vols.
What will happen: Alright Tennessee, you got your lousy game out
of your system. Butler is proving to be the real deal again, and it has
the three-point gunners to stay in the game and keep up the pace, but
the Vols will get by in yet another battle.
Prediction: Tennessee 76 ... Butler
70
Line: Tennessee -4.5
Final Score: Tennessee 76 ... Butler 71
PLAY-IN GAME
No. 16 Coppin State Eagles
– MEAC (16-20, 7-9 in the MEAC)
vs.
No. 16
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
– Northeast (18-14, 11-7 in the NEC)
Why Coppin State will win: Mount
St. Mary's doesn't rebound well, and
while Coppin State isn't all that big,
it's aggressive enough to get on the
boards on a consistent basis. There's
absolutely nothing to lose for the first
ever 20-loss tournament team; expect the
Eagles to play like it..
Why Mount St.
Mary's will win:
Coppin State isn't very good. Mount St.
Mary's is hardly North Carolina, but
there's enough depth and there's enough
experience to handle the pressure. This
was supposed to be the best team in the
NEC from the start, and it just so
happened to take the entire season for
that to come true.
What
will happen:
The Mountaineers will use its size,
depth and relatively decent guards to
get the honor of being slaughtered by
North Carolina..
Prediction:
Mount St. Mary's
69 ... Coppin State 61
Line:
Mount St. Mary's -6
Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 69
... Coppin State 60
First Round
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
– ACC (32-2, 14-2 in the ACC)
vs.
No. 16
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
– Northeast (19-14, 11-7 in the NEC)
Why Mount St. Mary's will win:
While the Mountaineers obviously don't
have the talent of North Carolina, they
have a deep team with an inside presence
to not completely roll over on the
interior.
Seven-foot center Jason Loughry has to
play a big role and the threes from the
guards have to fall from the start. Most
of all, to keep this close, the Tar
Heels need to be mentally game-planning
for Indiana or Arkansas.
Why North
Carolina will win:
Mount St. Mary's is an awful rebounding
team. North Carolina leads the nation in
rebounding. Uh-oh.
What
will happen:
It'll take about ten minutes for the Tar
Heels to shake the rust off, and then
the floodgates will open up. UNC will
come up with an obscene number off.
Prediction:
North Carolina 84 ...
Mount St. Mary's
61
Line:
North Carolina -25
Final Score: North Carolina 113 ... Mount St. Mary's 74
No. 8
Indiana Hoosiers
– Big Ten (25-7, 14-4 in Big Ten) vs.
No. 9
Arkansas Razorbacks
– SEC (22-11, 9-7 in the SEC)
Why Indiana will win: It's the
better team ... it just hasn't played
like it. D.J. White leads a big, nasty
IU front line that'll handle itself well
against the Arkansas size, while there
will be just enough firepower from the
outside to stretch the Hog D. IU hits
77% of its free throws, while Arkansas
only makes 67%.
Why
Arkansas will win:
The Hogs might be able to wear down
White with big player after big player.
This is one of the few teams in the East
that can bang on the boards with the
Hoosiers. As they showed against
Tennessee with an SEC semifinal win,
they can more than run and gun with
anyone. Indiana will be more than happy
to get into a firefight, but its defense
has been even more willing to give up
points in bunches.
What
will happen:
Expect major momentum swings and plenty
of banging and fouls on the inside. IU
will eventually slow things down and
will win on the free throw line late.
Prediction:
Indiana 74
... Arkansas 67
Line:
Indiana -1.5
Final Score: Arkansas 86 ... Indiana 72
No. 5 Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
– Big East (24-7, 14-4 in the Big East)
vs.
No. 12
George Mason Patriots
– Colonial (23-10, 12-6 in the Colonial)
Why Notre Dame will win: Notre
Dame doesn't play much defense, but that's okay; George Mason doesn't
play much offense. The Patriots thrive on their Scramble Defense which
tries to force mistakes and pressures offenses the entire length of the
floor. However, the Irish basketball squad, unlike the football team,
can pass as well as anyone.
Why George
Mason will win:
The defense might not force many Irish mistakes, but it'll pressure the
heck out of Luke Harangody and keep the three point bombers from getting
comfortable. Notre Dame might have too much offensive firepower, but
it's not going to be able to do everything it wants to..
What will
happen:
George Mason doesn't have nearly enough offense to pull this off. The
Irish will get up early, the Patriots will try to bomb its way back into
the game, won't be able to do it, and then things will get ugly late..
Prediction:
Notre Dame 75 ... George Mason 57
Line:
Notre Dame -7
Final Score:
Notre Dame 68 ... George Mason 50
No. 4 Washington
State Cougars
– Pac 10 (24-8, 11-7 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 13
Winthrop Eagles
– Big South (22-11, 10-4 in the Big South)
Why Washington State will win:
Both teams play great defense, but Wazzu can actually score a little. It
won't take much to put the Eagles away with their limited offense, while
the Cougars are just sharp enough and just good enough handling the ball
to not buckle under the pressure. If this comes down to free throws,
Winthrop will be in deep trouble..
Why Winthrop will win:
The defense really is good. Considering they have to face a four-seed,
the Eagles have to be ecstatic to face a team that doesn't rely on a
run-n-gun style and doesn't have a high-octane attack. There's a great
chance the score could be kept low. The Cougars are at their best when
the keep games in the 60s, and that's exactly what Winthrop needs.
What will
happen:
Washington will keep the turnovers to a minimum and won't let Winthrop
come up with the mistakes needed to pull off the upset. It'll hardly be
a walk in the park, though.
Prediction:
Washington State 67 ... Winthrop 58
Line:
Washington State -8.5
Final Score:
Washington State 71 ... Winthrop 40
No. 6 Oklahoma
Sooners –
Big 12 (22-11, 9-7 in the Big 12) vs.
No. 11 St.
Joseph’s Hawks
– Atlantic 10 (21-12, 9-7 in the A-10)
Why Oklahoma will win: St. Joe's
has size, but not a lot of force on the inside. OU's combination of
Blake Griffin and Longar Logar should be able to take advantage and own
the boards from the start. The Hawks simply weren't very good over the
stretch run, and while they have a nice win over Xavier to build on, OU
will be too tough and too physical.
Why St. Joe's will win:
Which Sooner offense will show up? This isn't an exciting OU attack by
any means, but it's usually effective. However, if the shots aren't
falling, things could get really, really ugly if it has to keep up if
St. Joe's is on. It might be just enough for the Hawks to get up early
and make the Sooners panic. Nothing would be better for the A-10 runners
up than to get into a three-point shooting contest.
What will
happen:
Everything is there for a big upset. The Hawks will have their moments
and will have a few opportunities to control the game, but the Sooners
will be able to rely on its inside game as it bangs its way to a tough
win.
Prediction:
Oklahoma 66 .. St. Joseph's 61
Line:
Oklahoma -1.5
Final Score: Oklahoma 72 ... St. Joseph's 64
No. 3 Louisville
Cardinals
– Big East (24-8, 14-4 in the Big East)
vs.
No. 14
Boise State Broncos
– WAC (25-8, 12-4 in the WAC)
Why Louisville will win: This is
a bad, bad matchup for Boise State. The Broncos don't have much size on
the inside and rely on their consistent shooting inside and out.
Louisville has a tough defense that should stuff everything inside while
it's great at forcing mistakes. BSU turns it over way too often, and the
Cardinals should be able to take advantage.
Why Boise
State will win:
You want a shootout ... fine. The Cardinals are never ones to shy away
from a firefight, and that could be just was Boise State wants. It can't
handle Louisville's inside game in a slow-down half-court set, but if
this gets into a three-point shooting contest, the Broncos have the
advantage with better sharpshooters and great passing.
What will
happen:
This should be fun. Each team will go on runs with two or three big
shots to swing the momentum wildly throughout the game, but the Cardinal
defense will come up with just enough late stops to pull away.
Prediction:
Louisville 82 ... Boise State 75
Line:
Louisville -13
Final Score: Louisville 79 ... Boise State 61
No. 7 Butler
Bulldogs
– Horizon League (29-3, 16-2 in Horizon)
vs.
No. 10
South Alabama Jaguars
– Sun Belt (26-6, 16-2 in Sun Belt)
Why Butler will win: Can South Alabama handle the Butler defensive
pressure? The Jaguars struggle from the outside to begin with, but with
the way the Bulldogs are able to keep the scoring low, any lead will
likely be safe. Both teams have balanced offenses, but Butler's is more
consistent and better from the outside. Butler can come back on South
Alabama, but South Alabama can't come back on Butler.
Why South
Alabama
will win:
Rebounding. If the score stay low like the Bulldogs would like, the
outcome will come down to a big play or three on the boards. The Jaguars
might not be that big, but they're fantastic at creating second chance
points that Butler won't be able to get. The Bulldogs have to win by
hitting the three, and any miss will be quickly cleaned up by any one of
the five South Alabama players; the rebounding comes from everyone.
What will
happen:
Upset. Butler can spread the ball around with its balanced attack, but
South Alabama spreads it around with its own offense and will clean up
on the boards.
Prediction:
South Alabama 64 ... Butler 61
Line:
Butler -4
Final Score: Butler 81 ... South Alabama 61
No. 2 Tennessee
Volunteers
– SEC (29-4, 14-2 in the SEC) vs.
No. 15
American Eagles
– Patriot (21-11, 10-4 in the Patriot)
Why Tennessee will win: Ball security. For all the runnin' and
gunnin' the Vols do, they don't give the ball away as much as you'd
think. This is going to be a shootout, and for American to pull off the
upset it'll have to catch Tennessee napping and hope for several dumb
plays. That's not Tennessee. The Eagles simply don't have the talent and
athleticism to slow down the high-powered Vol attack.
Why American
will win:
Bombs away. American has a puncher's chance of making this interesting
with three point gunner after three point gunner firing from anywhere.
This is one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation, and
while it doesn't want to get into an up-and-down game, it can hang
around with a few good possessions.
What will
happen:
For all the outside shooting American does, it doesn't put big points on
the board. It hasn't been successful when the pace gets turned up a
notch, and now there's Tennessee to deal with. The Eagles are going from
a go-cart track to the Indy 500 as far as game speed.
Prediction:
Tennessee 84 ... American 60
Line:
Tennessee -20
Final Score:
Tennessee 72 ... American 57
