2008 March
Madness - Midwest
Fearless Predictions
By
Pete Fiutak
- Fearless Predictions ...
East Bracket |
West Bracket
| South Bracket
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
East
| South |
West
Once again, here are the picks/shots in the dark/expert analysis for
your NCAA men's basketball tournament. I know, this is College Football
News, but any fan of college sports is into tournament
time. Even though I've gone 260-121 (68%) over the last
six years, I apologize for once again poisoning the world with my picks
throughout the tournament.
How Are
The Picks So Far?
SU 10-4 ... ATS 9-5
Midwest Bracket
Regional Final
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Big 12 (34-3, 13-3 in the Big 12) vs.
No. 10
Davidson Wildcats
– Southern (29-6, 20-0 in the Southern)
Why Kansas will win: Kansas can actually score.
Wisconsin's offense came from a defense
that wore teams down while making every
right cut and finding every open man.
The Badgers didn't get any open looks
and didn't get anyone cutting free
against Davidson. Kansas won't have that
problem with an offense that'll do more
to take it to the DC defense rather than
wait for anything to happen. Stephen
Curry wants to put up 35 points? Super.
Let's get the party moving and get into
an up-and-down game. The Jayhawks would
desperately love to get runnin' and
gunnin'.
Why Davidson will win: This team is actually good. Who out
Wisconsins Wisconsin? The Wildcats got
every key rebound, every loose ball, and
most importantly, stuffed every big
second half offensive possession. The
Badgers didn't go the entire second half
without hitting a basket; it just seemed
that way. Don't get too caught up in
KU's three-game run to the regional
final; it hasn't played anyone with a
pulse. If you were to tell Jayhawk fans
before the tournament that their team
would face Portland State, UNLV,
Villanova and Davidson, they'd have
booked their tickets to San Antonio.
Davidson makes a living off being
underestimated, but this is the real
deal with an inside presence on defense,
fearless outside shooters, and of
course, Curry.
What will happen: Who's going to doubt Davidson now? While all
the pieces are there to get to the Final
Four, Kansas is too complete, too
athletic, and too good.
Davidson's big tournament wins over Georgetown and Wisconsin
came over defensive teams.
With so many
weapons and so much athleticism, Kansas
will have too much firepower to lose the
shootout.
Prediction: Kansas 84 ... Davidson
77
Line: Kansas -9
Final Score:
COMING
Third Round
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Big 12 (33-3, 13-3 in the Big 12) vs.
No. 12
Villanova Wildcats
– Big East (22-12, 9-9 in the Big East)
Why Kansas will win: Villanova won't be able to handle
anything Kansas wants to do on the inside. With the way the Jayhawks
move the ball around, and with the way the guards are able to get to the
basket, the Wildcats will do plenty of fouling. The bigger problem will
be offensive firepower; Villanova doesn't have any compared to KU, and
the first round win over Clemson aside, any sort of mid-game Jayhawk run
should be enough to put the game away. There are simply too many
offensive options not to get to the Elite Eight.
Why Villanova will win: It's Kansas when the pressure is on. Bill
Self's Jayhawk clubs haven't exactly come through when the spotlight is
on. Villanova did a nice job of coming back against the Tigers in the
first round and will have to keep on plugging away while its defense can
force enough KU mistakes to get back into the game. Despite being a
12-seed, the confidence appears to be sky high. Playing with house money
as the last team to get in, and with no one expecting a run like this,
Villanova will be loose while all the pressure will be on the other
side.
What will happen: The run ends here. Kansas, unlike Clemson,
knows how to drop the hammer and end a game once it has it in hand.
Playing Siena was a gift for Villanova, and while wins are wins in the
NCAA tournament, it's about to see the full power of a true national
title contender.
Prediction: Kansas 80 ... Villanova
67
Line: Kansas -11.5
Final Score:
Kansas 72 ... Villanova 57
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers – Big Ten (31-4, 16-2 in the Big Ten) vs.
No. 10
Davidson Wildcats
– Southern (28-6, 20-0 in the Southern)
Why Wisconsin will win: Michael Flowers. Oh sure,
Georgetown has a phenomenal defense and keeps everyone from scoring on
the inside, but Flowers is the type of defender who can erase an
offensive star all by himself. Just ask Michigan State's Drew Neitzel
who was completely shut down in a late season loss in Madison. Stephen
Curry has been getting his points from the outside, and Flowers, with
almost a whole week to prepare, will be rested enough to fight through
the screens and keep the star of the tournament, so far, from getting
too many open looks.
Why Davidson will win: The Wildcats are known for Curry, but is
was the inside game that helped pull off the upset over Georgetown. Roy
Hibbert ended up with just six points and one rebound to go along with
his five fouls, while bangers
Thomas
Sander, and Andrew Lovedale combined for 11 boards. If Wisconsin wants
to get physical on the inside, fine; DU can handle itself. There's more
than just Curry to deal with on the outside. Jason Richards, coming off
a 20-point day, is also hot.
What will happen: Curry will be kept in relative check scoring
around 20, while Wisconsin will be far, far more effective on the inside
than Georgetown was. If this was the second game of the weekend,
Davidson would have a better shot, but Bo Ryan and the Badgers aren't
going to lose with almost a week to prepare.
Prediction: Wisconsin 68 ...
Davidson 57
Line: Wisconsin -5
Final Score:
Davidson 73 ... Wisconsin 56
Second Round
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Big 12 (32-3, 13-3 in the Big 12) vs.
No. 8 UNLV Rebels – Mountain West Conference (27-7, 12-4 in MWC)
Why Kansas will win: Does UNLV have the firepower to keep
up with the Jayhawk attack? These aren’t exactly the Runnin’ Rebels at
the moment, even through they’ve blasted through their last two big
games against BYU and Kent State. UNLV will want to keep the scoring low
and the game slow, but Kansas will have other ideas. Teams tend to speed
things up against the Jayhawks. They have to.
Why UNLV will win: Will KU be able to deal with a red-hot Rebel
team? The offense has been opportunistic, but it’s the defense that
continues to get the job done, holding Kent State to just 10 first half
points and stuffing BYU in the Mountain West title game. If KU is cold
early, UNLV will make things even chillier. This is a tough Rebel team
that’ll get on the boards.
What will happen: Can Lou Henson get a ticket between the two
former Illinois head coaches? Lon Kruger is doing a terrific job with
the Rebels, and while he and his team will throw a mega-scare into Bill
Self’s Jayhawks, there will be one too many big runs for an upset.
Prediction: Kansas 77 … UNLV 69
Line: Kansas -13
Final Score: Kansas 75 ... UNLV 56
No. 12
Villanova Wildcats
– Big East (21-12, 9-9 in the Big East) vs.
No. 13
Siena Saints
– MAAC (23-10, 13-5 in the MAAC)
Why Villanova will win: Confidence. Clemson had the Wildcats left
for dead after getting up by 18, and then the Wildcats got hot from
everywhere. This might have been the last team to get into the
tournament, but it didn't act like it in the second half against the
Tigers. This isn't an offense that revolves around the three, but they
were dropping. If they play like they did on Friday night, the Wildcats
should be able to match up with Siena three for three.
Why Siena will win:
Scoring. The Saints are tremendous at keeping the pace moving and
bombing away from the outside with three after three. Kenny Hansbrouck
won't go six-for-six again from behind the arc, but he and Tay Fisher
will keep the pressure on. If Villanova isn't on from deep and Siena is,
it could be a long day.
What will
happen:
You lie. You don't have Siena vs. Villanova in your bracket, and if you
do, you're nuts. Siena will keep chucking and Villanova will have their
down moments when it looks like nothing is going right, but eventually
the Wildcat toughness on the outside will keep the Saint guards from
getting too many open looks.
Prediction:
Villanova 79 ... Siena 68
Line:
Villanova -5
Final Score: Villanova 84 ... Siena 72
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers – Big Ten (30-4, 16-2 in the Big Ten) vs.
No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats – Big 12 (21-11, 10-6 in the Big 12)
Why Kansas State will win: Oh sure, Wisconsin was able to
just outbig Cal State Fullerton, but that’s not going to happen against
the Wildcats. KSU blasted USC by getting to the boards time and again,
especially on offense. The Badgers overcome a stuffy, dull offense by
getting physical on the inside, but Michael Beasley and company will
have other ideas.
Why Wisconsin will win: Yeah, KSU is tough on the inside, but
Wisconsin doesn’t wilt. It’ll pack it in, make the Wildcats hit from the
outside, and take its chances on getting the board. The Wildcat guards
turn it over way too often and the team commits a ton of fouls. As is,
the Badgers make more free throws than their opponents shoot.
What will happen: Oh this will be bloody. If the O.J. Mayo vs.
Michael Beasley matchup was all about glitz and glamour, the Badgers vs.
Wildcats will be a lunchpail, workmanlike battle. KSU has more offensive
firepower, but the Big Ten champions do all the little things better.
Prediction: Wisconsin 65 … Kansas State 60
Line: Wisconsin -4.5
Final Score: Wisconsin 72 ... Kansas State 55
No. 2 Georgetown
Hoyas –
Big East (28-5, 15-3 in the Big East) vs.
No. 10
Davidson Wildcats
– Southern (27-6, 20-0 in the Southern)
Why Georgetown will win: Yeah, Davidson's Stephen Curry can score on
anyone, but the Georgetown defense is good enough to put the clamps down
and keep him from going ballistic. Even if Curry does go for 40, like he
did in the win over Gonzaga, the Hoyas should be able to take away
almost all the periphery players.
Why Davidson will win:
While there's not a whole bunch of firepower outside of Curry, DU has
the tough front court that's not going to back down against the mighty
Hoyas. Georgetown will try to outmuscle the Wildcats, but that might not
be possible if
Boris Meno,
Thomas Sander, and Andrew Lovedale apply the beating.
What will
happen:
Curry will be the signature star and the one everyone will focus on, but
Georgetown will methodically use its defense to control the game and
wear DU down. GU has the best defense in the nation when it comes to
opponent field goal percentage, and it'll show.
Prediction:
Georgetown 70 ... Davidson 63
Line:
Georgetown -4.5
Final Score: Davidson 74 ... Georgetown 70
First Round
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
– Big 12 (31-3, 13-3 in the Big 12) vs.
No. 16 Portland State Vikings
– Big Sky (23-9, 14-2 in the Big Sky)
Why Kansas will win: Run, run,
run. Portland State might work around
its guards, but it's not a team that'll
do much in the transition game. There's
not enough scoring firepower to keep up
with KU for more than about 15 minutes.
There's way, way too much inside and out
for the Vikings to handle.
Why
Portland State will win:
If it's able to keep the pace of the
game relatively slow, PSU should be able
to keep Kansas from making this brutally
ugly from the start. It could take a
little while before the big run comes
that puts it away, but if the Jayhawks
aren't paying attention, they'll get
bombed on by a PSU run of its own. With
the great Viking three point shooters
able to fire from anywhere, KU will have
to work a wee bit.
What
will happen:
Call your shot. KU can end this whenever
it wants to.
Prediction:
Kansas 89 ... Portland State 50
Line:
Kansas -23
Final Score: Kansas 85 ... Portland State 61
No. 8 UNLV Rebels
– Mountain West Conference (26-7, 12-4
in MWC) vs.
No. 9 Kent State Golden Flashes
– Mid American Conference (28-6, 13-3 in
MAC)
Why UNLV will win: Both the
Rebels and Golden Flashes play tough,
aggressive defense, but the UNLV offense
will be better at going on a run to blow
open a close game. UNLV might not be all
that big, but it's great on the
defensive glass and should be able to
limit the second chance shots. KSU can't
rebound.
Why
Kent State will win:
Can the Golden Flashes win by wearing
UNLV down? These might be the Runnin'
Rebels, but they don't have the depth to
keep up a fast pace for an entire game.
It's not like KSU is going to push the
tempo, but with a D that likes to
challenge everything, UNLV will have to
work for every point. The Rebels don't
have the size to do any damage inside.
What
will happen:
This could be one of the most enjoyable
slugfests of the first round. Don't
expect much in the way of high-flying
scoring, but UNLV will be able to crank
out just enough of a second half run to
get out alive.
Prediction:
UNLV 67 ... Kent State 64
Line:
Kent State -2
Final Score: UNLV 71 ... Kent State 58
No. 5 Clemson Tigers
– ACC (24-9, 10-6 in the ACC)
vs.
No. 12
Villanova Wildcats
– Big East (20-12, 9-9 in the Big East)
Why Clemson will win: Can
Villanova handle the pressure? The Clemson defense is great at taking
teams out of their offensive game plans, while the offense is balanced
enough to give the Wildcats major fits. VU plays great D, but it might
not get good enough play inside to help out the guards on the outside.
Clemson is like Villanova, only better.
Why Villanova will win:
Free throws. Villanova's one huge weakness is committing fouls, but
that'll be neutralized by a Clemson team that stinks on the line. The
Wildcat guards are just as good at providing the pressure as Clemson's,
and the Tigers are far more mistake-prone.
What will
happen:
If Clemson hits its free throws it'll win. It won't, and it won't.
Villanova will win the turnover battle and the free throw margin which
will be just enough for the upset.
Prediction:
Villanova 68 ... Clemson 66
Line:
Clemson -6
Final Score:
Villanova 75 ... Clemson 69
No. 4 Vanderbilt
Commodores
– SEC (26-7, 10-6 in the SEC) vs.
No. 13
Siena Saints
– MAAC (22-10, 13-5 in the MAAC)
Why Vanderbilt will win: Siena is
Vanderbilt but not as good. Vandy doesn't play any D, and Siena doesn't
play any D. Vandy is great from the outside and Siena is great from the
outside. The major difference is on the inside; Vandy can hurt Siena on
the inside, but Siena can't do much against Vandy in the paint or on the
glass.
Why Siena will win:
Siena could be the worst possible matchup for the Commodores. The last
thing they wanted to see was a quirky team that runs well, bombs away,
and can keep up the offensive pressure from outside for a full 40
minutes. The Saints will take their chances in a high-octane shootout.
What will
happen:
Lots of scoring, lots of points, and lots and lots of threes jacked up.
There will be a few different times when Siena has the chance to take
control and pull off the upset but won't be able to do it. The
Commodores will pull away late, but they'll know they were in a fight.
Prediction:
Vanderbilt 81 ... Siena 73
Line:
Vanderbilt -7
Final Score: Siena 83 ... Vanderbilt 62
No. 6 USC Trojans
– Pac 10 (21-11, 11-7 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 11
Kansas State Wildcats
– Big 12 (20-11, 10-6 in the Big 12)
Why USC will win: KSU will have a
hard time scoring. Michael Beasley will get his points and rebounds, but
the guard won't be able to consistently do much of anything against the
Trojan athleticism. This is a USC team that can produce inside almost as
well as the Wildcats and has a better perimeter game.
Why Kansas
State will win:
Brute strength. USC likes to penetrate and get to the basket. While it
can shoot a bit from the outside, that's not a strength. Beasley and the
the KSU interior presence will force several one-n-done possessions and
will make O.J. Mayo and company pay every time they try to get inside.
What will
happen:
While Kevin Love might have something to say about it, this will be a
battle for the 2008-2009 NBA Rookie of the Year honors. Mayo's talking
about staying, but he's too good to stick around another year. USC will
have a little too much offense and a little too much balance.
Prediction:
USC 75 ... Kansas State 70
Line:
USC -2.5
Final Score: Kansas State 80 ... USC 67
No. 3 Wisconsin
Badgers –
Big Ten (29-4, 16-2 in the Big Ten) vs.
No. 14 Cal
State Fullerton Titans
– Big West (24-8, 12-4 in the Big West)
Why Wisconsin will win: Cal State
Fullerton doesn't have any size up front and will get beaten up on the
inside by Brian Butch and the tough Badger front line. With time to
prepare, the Badger guards should be able to keep the Titan guards from
getting into their normal groove. The Titans need to force mistakes to
win, and no one in the tournament is better at ball security than
Wisconsin.
Why Cal State
Fullerton will win:
After the initial shock of being a three-seed wore off, Wisconsin had to
be thinking a collective Oh crap after seeing the matchup. For a 3-14
game, Cal State Fullerton is the last team the Badgers wanted to face.
Up tempo, able to push the ball, and able to score in bunches, the
Titans just might be quick enough to get the offense moving.
What will
happen:
Wisconsin will take Fullerton out of its normal gameplan by slowing
things down to a crawl. The Badgers will have too much size and too much
interior toughness to blow this.
Prediction:
Wisconsin 68 ... Cal State Fullerton 52
Line:
Wisconsin -11.5
Final Score:
Wisconsin 71 ... Cal State Fullerton 56
No. 7 Gonzaga
Bulldogs
– West Coast (25-7, 13-1 in the West Coast)
vs.
No. 10
Davidson Wildcats
– Southern (26-6, 20-0 in the Southern)
Why Gonzaga will win: Look, Davidson, a real live team. The Wildcats
haven't exactly dealt with a who's who of top teams over the second half
of the year and might take a while to get adjusted. The Bulldogs have
enough offensive weapons to be more balanced and more consistent than
Davidson, however ...
Why Davidson will win:
It's not like the Zags have been a model of consistency this year. Great
at beating the dregs, Gonzaga has misfired every time it needed to come
up with a big, clutch performance. DU's Stephen Curry is the type of
singular talent who can carry a team on his back to the Sweet 16.
Gonzaga doesn't have one of those types of players.
What will
happen:
Curry, Curry, Curry. The Wildcats aren't just going to be happy to be in
the tournament this time around and will get enough support from the
inside bangers to balance out a monster night from Curry.
Prediction:
Davidson 73 ... Gonzaga 70
Line:
Davidson -2
Final Score: Davidson 82 ... Gonzaga 76
No. 2 Georgetown
Hoyas –
Big East (27-5, 15-3 in the Big East) vs.
No. 15
UMBC Retrievers
– America East (24-8, 13-3 in America East)
Why Georgetown will win: Roy Hibbert. UMBC doesn't have any size
and can't rebound. Thank you very much, good night. The Hoyas will have
several second and third chances on offense and won't allow any putbacks
on the defensive end. UMBC just doesn't have the strength inside to
mount any sort of a challenge.
Why UMBC will win:
Ball security. The Retreivers are great at hanging on to the ball and
not making dumb mistakes. Georgetown likes to use its pressure defense
to fuel offensive runs, and while it can have an easier time in this
game playing a slow, half-court game, it would like to end it by feeding
off errors that UMBC won't provide. There's just enough of an outside
shooting game from UMBC to keep this close for a while.
What will
happen:
The Battle for the Beltway will be over as soon early in the second half
with the Hoyas have beaten up the Retrievers on the boards once too
often. Hibbert will be able to score any time he wants to.
Prediction:
Georgetown 77 ... UMBC 55
Line:
Georgetown -16.5
Final Score: Georgetown 66 ... UMBC 47
