2008 March
Madness - West
Fearless Predictions
By
Pete Fiutak
- Fearless Predictions ...
East Bracket |
South Bracket |
Midwest Bracket
2008 March Madness Breakdowns
East
| Midwest |
South
Once again, here are the picks/shots in the dark/expert analysis for
your NCAA men's basketball tournament. I know, this is College Football
News, but any fan of college sports is into tournament
time. Even though I've gone 260-121 (68%) over the last
six years, I apologize for once again poisoning the world with my picks
throughout the tournament.
How Are
The Picks So Far?
SU 11-3 ... ATS
10-4
West Bracket
Regional Final
No. 1 UCLA Bruins
– Pac 10 (34-3, 16-2 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 3 Xavier
Musketeers
– Atlantic 10 (28-5, 14-2 in the
Atlantic 10)
Why UCLA will win: Can Xavier handle
itself on the boards against Kevin Love
and the rugged Bruin big men? The
Musketeers outrebounded West Virginia
39-34, and has been active, as always,
on the glass, but playing UCLA is
something different. There will be
several second-chance points, and just
enough defensive pressure to keep the
Xavier three-point shooters from ever
getting comfortable. UCLA might be
having a few problems, but it finds ways
to win close game after close game. The
team is as tough mentally as it is
physically.
Why
Xavier will win:
UCLA just looks like a team begging to
get tagged. Yeah, it took its foot off
the gas in what appeared to be a blowout
over Western Kentucky and had to fight
to get out alive. If Texas A&M had been
just a little bit better inside, it
would've beaten the Bruins. Xavier has
been through the wars having rallied to
beat Georgia, cranked up the O to beat
Purdue, and got tough late to get past
West Virginia. With the way the
Musketeers can shoot inside and out, the
Bruin offense will have to crank it up
more than usual. The tough Bruin defense
alone won't get it done.
What
will happen:
Xavier already faced a good defensive
team in Purdue and won 85-78. The Bruins
haven't really played a great team yet
in the tournament and would've been
bounced out of the last two rounds they
played someone like the Musketeers.
There's too much offensive balance and
too much shooting for UCLA; this is when
the team finally gets exposed.
Prediction:
Xavier 75
... UCLA 69
Line:
UCLA -8.5
Final Score: COMING
Third Round
No. 1 UCLA Bruins
– Pac 10 (33-3, 16-2 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 12
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
– Sun Belt (28-6, 16-2 in the Sun Belt
Why UCLA will win: Free throws.
UCLA, even with its tough, aggressive
defense, was one of the nation's leaders
in fewest fouls committed, while it's
great on the line nailing 74%.
Meanwhile, WKU commits 21 fouls per game
and allowed San Diego to attempt 28 free
throws. Kevin Love inside, and the great
Bruin guards' ability at getting to the
basket, will force a lot of hacks.
Why
Western Kentucky will win:
The Hilltoppers should, at least on
paper, give the Bruins an interesting
matchup. They're great from three, while
UCLA is just average from the outside.
They're strong on the inside and on the
boards, while Love might be forced to
make more plays from the outside. This
is a good enough team to hang around,
mostly because of the three, and could
pull off the shocker if the backcourt
gets red hot.
What
will happen:
UCLA will once against come up with a
questionable offensive performance, but
the defense will do enough to get to the
Elite Eight. WKU just doesn't have the
talent to pull this off.
Prediction:
UCLA 68 ...
Western Kentucky 56
Line:
UCLA -12.5
Final Score:
UCLA 88
... Western Kentucky 78
No. 3 Xavier
Musketeers
– Atlantic 10 (27-5, 14-2 in the Atlantic 10) vs.
No. 7 West Virginia
Mountaineers
– Big East (26-10, 11-7 in the Big
East)
Why Xavier will win: West
Virginia star Joe Alexander could be in
for a frustrating day. Xavier is
terrific at erasing the opposing team's
best player, while the offense is
hitting on all cylinders. This is a
maddeningly balanced offense that should
be too overwhelming for a Mountaineer
defense that's good, but hardly special.
Xavier will have problems against anyone
with a great inside presence, like
UCLA's Kevin Love, but it matches up
well with with WVU.
Why
West Virginia will win:
The Mountaineers will also have issues
against a big team, and that's not
Xavier. They might not have the
all-around offense the Musketeers have,
but they move the ball around extremely
well to find the open man. While XU will
focus on stopping Alexander, the
periphery players should have big days.
They were able to get by Arizona in the
first round when Alexander was merely
average.
What
will happen:
This is a tough West Virginia team that
will do some pushing around and will
keep up for a full 40 minutes, but XU
will have too much firepower and will do
too good a job spreading around the
offense. This will be the best of the
Sweet 16 games.
Prediction:
Xavier 74
... West Virginia 71
Line:
West Virginia -1
Final Score:
Xavier
79 ... West Virginia 75 OT
Second Round
No. 1 UCLA Bruins
– Pac 10 (32-3, 16-2 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
– Big 12 (25-10, 8-8 in the Big 12)
Why UCLA will win: While you
can't go by a win over Mississippi
Valley State, the Bruins certainly
looked in fine tournament form. The
guards are way too talented to make the
mistakes the Aggies need to get the
offense moving, and the Bruin front
court will negate the usual A&M
advantage on the boards.
Why
Texas A&M will win:
This is an awful, awful matchup for
UCLA. A&M is every bit as physical,
likes to win on defense, and if Josh
Carter is hitting the three, the offense
has the ability to keep up any pace. The
Bruin guards have to get to the basket
and have to be on the move to be
effective, but the Aggie defense is good
at not letting teams get into their
normal game modes.
What
will happen:
A&M will keep this much, much closer
than Bruin fans might like. In the end,
UCLA has way too much firepower and
plays enough defense to move on ... but
barely.
Prediction:
UCLA 68 ... Texas
A&M 66
Line:
UCLA -10
Final Score:
UCLA 51
... Texas A&M 49
No. 12
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
– Sun Belt (27-6, 16-2 in the Sun Belt vs.
No. 13 San
Diego Toreros
– West Coast (21-13, 11-3 in the West
Coast)
Why Western Kentucky will win:
Really, San Diego isn't that good. No,
really. Yean, the Torerors shocked UConn
in the shocker of the first round, but
while they're hot, they've struggled way
too much throughout the year. This isn't
a high scoring team and it'll have major
problems with the inside out game of WKU.
The Hilltoppers could simply score way
too often with all of their options for
San Diego to keep up.
Why
San Diego will win:
Never mess with a streak. No, you never,
ever mess with a streak. San Diego might
have its issues, particularly on the
offensive end, but it's playing
extremely well as everything has come
together behind a strong defense. WKU
could be a bit overconfident now that
UConn is out of the picture.
What
will happen:
WKU will show off way too much bench,
way too much inside-out scoring, and way
too much variety. San Diego doesn't have
many options and it doesn't have nearly
the firepower to keep up if the threes
start falling for the Hilltoppers.
Prediction:
Western Kentucky
75 ... San Diego 69
Line:
Western Kentucky -5
Final Score: Western Kentucky 72
... San Diego 63
No. 2 Duke Blue
Devils –
ACC (27-5, 13-3 in ACC) vs.
No. 7 West Virginia
Mountaineers
– Big East (25-10, 11-7 in the Big
East)
Why Duke will win: The three has
to start falling, doesn't it? After
struggling to find the range against the
Belmont D, the Blue Devil offense won't
likely be as off two games in a row,
especially if this gets into any sort of
an up-and-down game. West Virginia is
playing well, but this isn't necessarily
an elite three-point shooting team. Duke
could simply outbomb its way into the
Sweet 16.
Why
West Virginia will win:
Duke 71, Belmont 70. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
survive and move on, but the Bruins
exposed a possibly mediocre Blue Devil
team that doesn't have nearly enough of
an inside game to exploit the lack of
Mountaineer size. WVU will have problems
with physical teams with bulk and power.
That's not Duke by any means.
What
will happen:
Joe Alexander will continue to be
amazing as West Virginia comes up with
an efficient, effective offensive
performance to overcome a few big Duke
runs. There will be lots of offense and
lots of big swings in what should be a
fantastic, fun game.
Prediction:
West Virginia
77 ... Duke 73
Line:
Duke -3
Final Score: West Virginia 73 ...
Duke 67
No. 3 Xavier
Musketeers
– Atlantic 10 (26-5, 14-2 in the Atlantic 10) vs.
No. 6 Purdue
Boilermakers
– Big Ten (25-8, 15-3 in the Big Ten)
Why Xavier will win: There's a
chance the Musketeers can step up and
simply outbomb the Boilermakers. Yeah,
Purdue hung a huge number on Baylor in a
90-79 win, but it doesn't have a
big-time offense compared to Xavier.
This is a balanced XU attack that should
be able keep the ball moving on the
Purdue pressure defense.
Why
Purdue will win:
If Georgia had any legs left in the
final ten minutes, it would've beaten
Xavier. Purdue looked like a rested and
ready tournament team in its blasting of
Baylor, and while it doesn't have the
same sort of balanced offense like
Xavier, it can mix it up a little bit to
go along with the nasty defense.
What
will happen:
Xavier will have its run, or two, but
Purdue's defense will grind it out for a
few stretches while the offense will
keep up the pace whenever needed.
E’Twaun Moore will come up with yet
another huge game for the Boilermakers.
Prediction:
Purdue 73
... Xavier 69
Line:
Xavier -3
Final Score: Xavier 85 ... Purdue
78
First Round
No. 1 UCLA Bruins
– Pac 10 (31-3, 16-2 in the Pac 10) vs.
No. 16 Mississippi Valley State Delta
Devils
– SWAC (17-15, 12-6 in the SWAC)
Why UCLA will win: MVSU didn't
have too much offensive pop in the SWAC,
and now it's supposed to try to outscore
UCLA?! Yeah, right. The Bruins have way
too much athleticism and too much
variety inside and out for the Delta
Devils to keep pace for more than ten
minutes. MVSU will have a nightmare of a
time scoring.
Why
Mississippi Valley State will win:
The only chance of keeping this from
being a 50-point blowout is if 1) UCLA
is nice and/or 2) the Delta Devils can
control the pace. This is a slow,
deliberate team that likes to limit the
number of possessions and keep the
running to a bare minimum. In Larry Cox,
MVSU has an inside presence to beat up
Kevin Love.
What
will happen:
MVSU will do what it can to slow things
down to a crawl, but the guards will
have too many problems turning it over
to keep UCLA from getting into
transition.
Prediction:
UCLA 76 ...
Mississippi Valley State 45
Line:
UCLA -32.5
Final Score:
UCLA 70 ... Mississippi Valley State 29
No. 8 BYU Cougars
– Mountain West Conference (27-7, 14-2
in MWC) vs.
No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
– Big 12 (24-10, 8-8 in the Big 12)
Why BYU will win: The Aggies
can't shoot free throws and struggles
from three which means BYU's weakness,
free throws, won't be a killer. The
Cougars should be able to force just
enough mistakes to offset the certain
turnovers A&M will force, but the big
key will be on the line. With a decent
enough inside presence, the Cougars
likely won't get killed in the
rebounding battle.
Why
Texas A&M will win:
BYU could have major problems with
mistakes. As is it turns the ball over
way too often, and A&M is fantastic at
pressuring on the outside and is tough
on the boards on both ends of the floor.
The Cougars are coming off a clunker of
a loss to UNLV and have to prove they
can win away from home.
What
will happen:
This isn't going to be a pretty game.
Expect lots of defense, lots of fouls,
and lots and lots of missed free throws.
BYU will hit a few more than A&M to
squeak out the close win.
Prediction:
BYU 65 ...
Texas A&M 62
Line:
Texas A&M -2
Final Score: Texas A&M 67 ...
Texas A&M 62
No. 5 Drake
Bulldogs – Missouri Valley Conference (28-4, 15-3 in MVC)
vs.
No. 12
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
– Sun Belt (27-6, 16-2 in the Sun Belt)
Why Drake will win: The Bulldogs
don't make the mistakes WKU might need to get the transition game going.
This is a rock-solid, sound team that can bomb away from anywhere and
can keep up with any sort of offense the Hilltoppers come up with.
Winning the free throw battle won't be a problem.
Why Western
Kentucky will win:
Size. Drake is all about scoring from the outside with bombers who start
shooting from the moment they get off the bus. While that's great,
there's not enough defensively on the inside to deal with the quickness
and speed of the Hilltopper guards.
What will
happen:
Drake will have a few big runs with its three point shooting, but WKU
will be more than happy to get into an offensive shootout. Yeah, Drake
is good at shooting from behind the arc, but WKU is also among the best
in America from the outside.
Prediction:
Western Kentucky 79 ... Drake 75
Line:
Drake -4.5
Final Score: Western Kentucky 101
... Drake 99 OT
No. 4 Connecticut
Huskies –
Big East (24-8, 13-5 in the Big East) vs.
No. 13 San
Diego Toreros
– West Coast (21-13, 11-3 in the West Coast)
Why Connecticut will win: San
Diego just isn't very good. The Toreros got hot late in the year and got
through their conference tournament, but they struggled throughout the
season with anyone with a little bit of athleticism. It just so happens
that UConn has athletes. San Diego will get killed on the boards.
Why San Diego will win:
It's not like UConn can shoot. Needing to get moving on offense and
needing to create points in an up-tempo game, if San Diego is able to
keep the turnovers to a minimum and if it can force the Huskies to shoot
from the outside, the chance will be there for the shocking upset.
What will
happen:
The Toreros won't have a prayer of holding down Hasheem Thabeet inside.
There isn't nearly enough of a scoring punch to get back in the game if
and when UConn gets up early. The Husky defense could be dominant.
Prediction:
Connecticut 75 ... San Diego 55
Line:
Connecticut -11.5
Final Score: San Diego 70 ...
Connecticut 69
No. 6 Purdue
Boilermakers
– Big Ten (24-8, 15-3 in the Big Ten) vs.
No. 11
Baylor Bears
– Big 12 (21-10, 9-7 in the Big 12)
Why Purdue will win: Which Baylor
team will show up? Bad enough to lose to Colorado, the Big 12's worst
team, in the conference tournament, and with an offense that needs the
three to fall to win, the Bears are a perfect fit for the Boilermakers
and their defense. Purdue is far more versatile offensively and is good
enough defensively on the perimeter to pressure the BU guards.
Why Baylor will win:
It's not like the Boilermakers are going to fill it up. They don't have
a top offense with a ton of firepower and if the Baylor three is falling
early, Purdue could have big problems mounting a comeback. PU commits a
ton of fouls and BU is all but automatic on the line.
What will
happen:
It's not going to be a pretty game with Purdue trying to slug it out a
bit while Baylor does everything possible to get the open three-point
look. There will be plenty of fouls from both sides, and while the Bears
will win the free throw battle, the Purdue defense will be just good
enough to get by.
Prediction:
Purdue 74 ... Baylor 70
Line:
Purdue -3
Final Score:
Purdue 90 ... Baylor 79
No. 3 Xavier
Musketeers
– Atlantic 10 (26-5, 14-2 in the Atlantic 10) vs.
No. 14
Georgia Bulldogs
– SEC (17-16, 4-12 in the SEC)
Why Xavier will win: As wonderful
as the SEC tournament story was, Georgia simply isn't all that good.
Xavier is fantastic at shooting while the Bulldogs struggle with any
sort of offensive consistency. With so many options for the Musketeer to
go to, Georgia will struggle to keep up any sort of a pace.
Why Georgia will win:
This is a hustle team that gets just enough from three to get by. Xavier
has been known to come up with a few clunkers, and while it'll win if
all the parts are working and the offense gets into a rhythm, it could
also go into the tank like it did at Arizona State and against Miami
University if things aren't going the right way.
What will
happen:
The dream stops here. Georgia will come into the game with a world of
confidence and will run into a Xavier buzzsaw. The Musketeers will roll
through the first round after missing out on winning the Atlantic 10
title.
Prediction:
Xavier 75 ... Georgia 63
Line:
Xavier -8
Final Score:
Xavier 73 ... Georgia 61
No. 7 West Virginia
Mountaineers
– Big East (24-10, 11-7 in the Big East) vs.
No. 10
Arizona Wildcats
– Pac 10 (19-14, 8-10 in the Pac 10)
Why West Virginia will win: West Virginia is a bad matchup for
Arizona. The Wildcats can shoot the three with anyone, but the
Mountaineers are just tough enough, and just efficient enough passing
the ball to get plenty of points inside and win the rebounding battle.
The Pac 10 might have been good, but the Big East was nasty. West
Virginia is toughened up.
Why Arizona will win:
Will the Mountaineers get the scoring from anyone other than Joe
Alexander? The Wildcats can bomb away on West Virginia and go on a big
run, but the Mountaineers will have a hard time generating consistent
points of their own if it's not Alexander filling it up. WVU might be
tough, but it's not big enough to show any sort of an inside presence.
What will
happen:
It should be a fantastic individual battle between Alexander and
Arizona's Jerryd Bayless. They'll each get their points, but it'll be
the Mountaineer toughness on the boards that'll get the win.
Prediction:
West Virginia 73 ... Arizona 69
Line:
West Virginia -2
Final Score:
West Virginia 75 ... Arizona 65
No. 2 Duke Blue
Devils –
ACC (27-5, 13-3 in ACC) vs.
No. 15
Belmont Bruins
– Atlantic Sun (25-8, 14-2 in the Atlantic Sun)
Why Duke will win: Belmont does what Duke does but isn't nearly
as good at it. The Bruins have to bomb away from three to win, and while
Duke might not match three for three, it'll have far more offense to win
any sort of a shootout.
Why Belmont will win:
Duke is Duke and Belmont is Belmont, but this is the best matchup the
Bruins could've hoped for from any of the two seeds. The Bruins' biggest
problem is on the interior without any size and any inside scoring.
That's fine; Duke doesn't do much on the inside. Belmont as a puncher's
chance of keeping this close with the three.
What will
happen:
Expect a better battle than you might think. Duke will get up early and
will coast, but Belmont will go on enough of a run with the three to get
everyone buzzing. And then Duke will be Duke.
Prediction:
Duke 80 ... Belmont 62
Line:
Duke -19.5
Final Score: Duke 71 ... Belmont 70
