By
Brian Harbach
Two months before the season starts, one month before the SEC meetings in Birmingham all there is to read are predictions. Opinions are just like… well there is no need to go there so early in this column so let’s just say that everyone has one. Predictions are what get fans through the dead period of college football and preseason magazines are the sports fan's bible. Any national news this time of year outside of those magazines usually isn’t going to be good thing (shout out to Alabama fans).
Predictions of the upcoming season offer hope and optimism for fans and the chance to prove all the prognosticators wrong for the players. Since this column will be dedicated day in and day out to SEC football the best possible starting point would be a discussion of the State of the SEC. Quickly hitting on the conference as a whole and then discussing the teams and where they are at going into this season.
As usual the SEC is the toughest conference top to bottom in the country and the league is no where near decided, while some teams in other conferences seem to be booking their BCS tickets with no argument necessary ( Ohio State , USC and West Virginia ). The SEC’s best team is in Athens this year and arguably will not win their division much less the conference due to a brutal schedule. Four teams should be considered national title contenders and four teams should start the year in or near the top 10 ( Auburn , Florida , Georgia and LSU).
The coaching in the conference is unmatched, 5 coaches have won national championships and a 6th has an undefeated season to go along with his disdain for the BCS. Four of the leagues coaches have been head coaches in the NFL and 7 coaches have won SEC Championships. National Championships in some conferences seem to give coaches lifetime passes to skate through poor seasons. In the SEC the two coaches with the hottest seats in the league have both won national titles, Steve Spurrier and Phil Fulmer.
Looking at the talent wearing the helmets, there is a returning Heisman winner and the SEC brings back its usual list of speed, size and skill. The names everyone knows like Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, Michael Oher and Tyson Jackson should be on most everyone’s post season All American list. A few young guys that should be exciting to watch this year are Eric Berry at Tennessee, Jevan Snead at Ole Miss, Kodi Burns at Auburn, Carlos Dunlap at Florida and Rennie Curran at UGA. This is just a taste of the talent all over the conference and just some of the names that will be known in every SEC household by November.
As far as the league goes teams will be broken into three separate groups, Contenders, Pretenders and Pushovers. The contenders group lists SEC Champion hopefuls (All 4 of them can be National Title contenders as well), the Pretenders group are a year or two away from competing and the Pushovers are going to struggle this season. The teams are not ranked in the groups they are listed in, instead they will be in alphabetical order. There will be plenty of reasons to go all Mike Gundy based on content, don’t jump the gun and get mad at the order.
The Contenders
Auburn : Two things Tommy Tuberville seems very good at doing is playing under the radar and losing a game he shouldn’t lose. It will be interesting to see which one happens this year because the Tigers are behind the favorites in the East this year, but they have a lot of talent returning. The change in offensive philosophy will be enough to help out starting QB Chris Todd or Kodi Burns , but the defense will be the reason the Tigers are able to make a run at the SEC this year.
Florida: This Florida team is going to be special and they should be the preseason favorite to win the SEC Championship. The defense is stacked with young talent just as the running back position is and they have the best player in college football, Tim Tebow. The road schedule is extremely manageable with only 3 true SEC road games ( Tennessee , Arkansas and Vanderbilt). The other impressive fact that might help the Gators nationally if they lose a game is the schedule. They play the usual tough SEC schedule and have three marquee names on their out of conference schedule ( Miami , Hawaii and Florida State ).
Georgia : Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno should have huge years this season, UGA returns a ton of players, but the schedule is just nasty. If they can win out with this schedule they are guaranteed a spot in Miami , if they go through it with 1 loss and an SEC title they should be there as well. Six games away from Sanford Stadium and consecutive games at LSU, at Jacksonville for the Cocktail Party , at Kentucky and at Auburn is too much to overcome. Stafford has all the tools to be a great QB, but he has been inconsistent and has thrown a lot of interceptions (23 INT) in two seasons.
LSU: LSU seems to reload every single year, sure losing Ryan Perrilloux hurts, but the defense will be nasty and Gary Crowton calling the plays on offense will keep SEC defenses off balance. Jarrett Lee is the most talented QB on the roster and after a couple starts under his belt expect a good offense to get going by the start of October. Similar to LSU's 2006 season, they have tough road games at the beginning of the year, but they will be a force down the stretch.
Most likely to move down a group: Georgia , this has nothing to do with talent, but there are two things that stand out. The first thing is Richt’s track record as a pre-season favorite, he is very much like Tuberville when it comes to success flying under the radar. Tommy Tuberville is not the only coach to be a Sporting News Preseason #1 and underachieve. The second thing is the schedule, that schedule screams 2-3 losses and some teams will want revenge from some brutal past games. Auburn with the 4th Qtr knock out punch they got last year, Florida with the stomping incident and LSU with the loss in the Championship game 3 years ago are all games UGA has away from Athens this year.
The Pretenders
Alabama : While Nick Saban did a great job in his second year at LSU and he is moving the Tide in the right direction Alabama is not there yet. Mike McCoy is going to have a breakout year and the offensive line will be great, but unless John Parker Wilson can play with any consistency they will not move into the elite of the SEC this season. The defense has a lot of young playmakers, but the front seven is terribly inexperienced and will make a lot of mistakes. Expect them to win around 8 games including a win over Clemson in the opener, but Alabama is a year or two away from competing for an SEC Championship.
Arkansas : How good is Casey Dick? With two first round running backs gone and good offensive line returning Bobby Petrino is going to ride Casey until he knows what kind of QB he is. Dick will benefit greatly from some consistency in the offense, he will be under center the whole game and he should benefit from not always being in the game for obvious passing downs. The hogs don’t have the playmakers on the outside to scare SEC defenses, but Michael Smith should have a great year and they should get to a bowl game again this season.
Mississippi State : If there is one coach in the SEC that demands respect for what he has accomplished it is Sylvester Croom. The way he handles his team, himself and the love he has for his players is one of the most impressive things going in the SEC right now. While it is easy to like Croom it is hard to like his team. Wesley Carroll was manageable last year, the running backs are good, but the offensive line is inexperienced and like Arkansas there are little to no playmakers on the outside. The safeties, Keith Fitzhugh and Derek Pegues will be two of the leagues best, but the front 7 have a long way to go.
Tennessee : Tennessee has a lot of really great things going for them this season starting with the skill players. Lucas Taylor and Arian Foster are special players and the offensive line will be dominant this season. The spread is going to work well for the Vols and Jonathon Crompton should be a great fit in the spread offense. Eric Berry could be an All American this season as a sophomore and if they can get some production out of the defensive ends John Chavis might have a nasty unit. The first half of the year is full of tough games, but they do get Florida and Alabama at home to go along with some difficult road games at Auburn , at Georgia and at South Carolina.
Most likely to move up a group: Tennessee, Alabama was a team that made some sense in this spot but it is extremely difficult to see any team led by John Parker Wilson right now being consistent. Tennessee makes sense because the offensive changes will help them early in the year; teams won’t know what to prepare for and the offense could catch defenses off guard early. The biggest reason they are not in the Contender group is because Florida and Georgia are better teams, but if they can upset either one of those two they could repeat as SEC East Champions this year.
Most likely to move down a group: Mississippi State, Sylvester Croom is a great coach, but this is not a great team by any means. He is holding the Bulldogs together with paper clips and scotch tape, they don’t have a playmaker at Quarterback, they really don’t have any playmakers on offense and SEC teams will focus on them a little more this year instead of viewing the game as a W. Mississippi State was a couple of bounces away from being a 5-7 team last season. This does not look like a team that will improve much this year from last year; do the bounces go their way for a second straight year?
The Pushovers
Kentucky: Rich Brooks has a pretty large rebuilding project on his hands right now after losing Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, Keenan Burton and Jacob Tamme. This team is going to go through a lot of growing pains this season with very little depth on offense. The offensive line is big and experienced with 3 seniors and 2 juniors, but it isn't enough for new starting QB Curtis Pulley. The defense might be decent, but the schedule doesn’t look like a lot of wins are on it.
Ole Miss: Finally Ole Miss has a coach that can move them in the right direction, Cutcliffe was very much like Tommy Bowden, mediocre and not able to take the team to the next level. Coach Yaw Yaw Yaw ripped too many shirts and injured too many players by chest bumping them when they were walking to class. Now the Rebels have Houston Nutt who will improve the team immediately and get some stability into the program (from a football standpoint at least). Jevan Snead is going to have a huge year and they are going to run the ball and then run the ball some more. Nutt was a very smart hire and he will have them as a competitive team this year even if it doesn’t show up in the Win column right away.
South Carolina : The Steve Spurrier experience has been a complete and utter disaster, he was not brought to Columbia for Liberty Bowls and 6-6 seasons. They have no quarterback to lead the team and Stephen Garcia is begging for a one way ticket back to the state of Florida . While the defense may be good next year the offense will put them in such poor field position with turnovers and a total lack of consistency the defense will be wasted. Steve Spurrier is an elite SEC coach, but his time spent at South Carolina will be finished with the sentence “I guess Lee Corso was right.”
Vanderbilt: Good coaching is always a huge part of winning football, Vanderbilt has good coaching. The second largest part of winning football is talent and the talent just isn’t at Vandy to compete week in and week out. They will give some teams a scare, maybe pull an upset or two but they are not good enough to play at a high level each week. The quarterbacks are good (Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams), but the defense is unknown except for Cornerback DJ Moore and they will give up a lot of points this season. Vandy is no longer a laughingstock in the SEC, they have earned some respect, but they are still not good enough to win consistently in a very difficult league.
Most likely to move up a group: Ole Miss, From his over-acting on the sidelines, to the annoying facial gestures, to the smug attitude he has after a win or loss, Houston Nutt is not one of the more popular coaches among SEC fans. Too bad for the rest of the SEC Nutt is a good coach and he gets the most out of his players. Thinking of Nutt coaching Jevan Snead brings back nightmares of Matt Jones behind center, if Enrique Davis comes in ready to play and Greg Hardy comes in focused this team will surprise some SEC teams and get to a bowl game.
Once again the SEC looks nasty and teams are weeks away from any meaningful football. There is plenty of time to discuss records, bowl possibilities and other exciting topics for the upcoming season. Let me know what you think, email me at harbachcfn@gmail.com.
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