Which team’s freshman recruiting class will have the biggest impact this year? Which of the Big 12 quarterbacks will pass for the most yards? Sorry to tell you, but it doesn’t matter.
This is college football. Wins are the most important thing to a team. While some fans might be happy for close losses, the real fans look for the must wins and the big wins. Every team’s season really boils down to big games. Don’t believe it? Ask the Kansas Jayhawks which game they wish they would have like to have won last year. Or take a guess as to which one Oklahoma would like to have back. Would Missouri like a mulligan?
So instead of rehashing material about potential running back battles, this post will take a look at those games for every team. The idea for each team is to be successful relative to their abilities, coaching, schedule, experience, etc. These contests are those that will either make or break the season for the squads of the Big 12 North.
Missouri
Big Win: Texas
Must Win: Kansas
Missouri looks to build on last year’s amazing run, and the schedule for this year favors the Tigers. Although the neutral site battle with Illinois looms large as the season opener, the big game of the year for the gold and black will be in Austin as they look to steal one from the Longhorns in what is sure to be a primetime matchup.
Last year, the Tigers lost not one but two games against their toughest competition from the South. Winning in Austin, which they have not in over a century (1896), would help set the confidence for running through the rest of the Big 12.
The Kansas game is a must-win for two reasons. First, the game is likely to determine the winner of the Big 12 North. But more importantly, Missouri needs to beat the Hawks to avenge last year’s disrespect over the Orange Bowl snub. The Cotton Bowl was no disrespect, but for a program that is trying to move above and beyond, exercising some demons may lead into what they would hope to be a much better performane in this year’s Big 12 title game.
Kansas
Big Win: Missouri
Must Win: South Florida
The fighting Mangino’s are out to prove that 2007 was no fluke. Fans of the team remember near misses during the 2004 campaign against Texas and Texas Tech and are eager to see what Reesing and Co. can accomplish this year.
The must-win game of the year is the Jayhawks’ Friday night showcase mathcup against the USF Bulls. KU won two years ago in Lawrence, and now the second leg looks to be a good game for any college football fan. A win on the road against a strong BCS team vying for Big East supremacy would boost the confidence of the Hawks and help show that the program at Kansas is more than legitimate and here to stay. The Texas game is also a big contest, but with the Longhorns traveling to Lawrence, the Hawks are sure to be favored in the matchup and should win. Kansas nearly snatched one away from the Vince Young-led Horns in the fall of 2004, and will be plenty amped up on their home turf.
The Arrowhead matchup with Missouri is the biggest game the Jayhawks have this year. Winning would help the Jayhawks with any potential tiebreakers and really separate them from the rest of the North, given Missouri’s easier schedule. Winning the game might secure the Big 12 North title for Kansas and establish KU as the real deal. Division titles go a long way in the Big 12 and Kansas needs one to continue its remarkable improvement.
Colorado
Big Win: West Virginia
Must Win: Kansas State
It’s year three of Coach Hawkin’s tenure, and the Buffaloes look to be the sleeper pick of the North. Colorado stole the top-rated running back prospect Darrell Scott (St. Boneventure’s, CA) from Texas, and has its sights on disrupting any foregone conclusions of a two horse race for the North title.
As they have in recent years, Colorado does play a tough non-conference schedule. Playing at Florida State will be tough but a victory is certainly possible. The more important game is the showdown with West Virginia, in Boulder. Beating the Mountaineers at home would buoy the Buffaloes into a stronger showing in Tallahassee when they lock it up with the Noles. Starting 4-0 would aid their efforts to contend for the North, and it will surely secure their ticket to play in a mid-level bowl game at the end of the year.
This year’s must-win game for the Buffs is against Kansas State. The Buffaloes were humiliated in last year’s 47-20 loss to the Wildcats in the Little Apple. Winning at home against the Wildcats would be very helpful as the game precedes contests at Kansas and against Missouri. If Colorado can’t beat K-State, they could potentially be playing for their first conference victory in November.
Nebraska
Big Win: Virginia Tech
Must Win: Kansas State
Last year’s team could score on anybody and be scored on by anybody. In the last three games of the season, a total of 335 points were scored. Thus, enter in Sir Bo Pellini. Tom Osborne’s last hand-picked successor didn’t quite pan out the Husker-faithful had hoped. Lincoln eagerly waits for the revival of the conventional defensive ‘blackshirt’ mentality that is brought to the table by the former LSU defensive coordinator.
Virginia Tech comes into Memorial Stadium for a non-conference game that should prove to be explosive, if anything. The performance will be indicative of the outlook for the rest of the season as the new look defense will take on a solid, but not especially overwhelming Hokie squad. Winning this game would be a big step towards overhauling the team and bringing some relief to the Big Red Nation.
The Huskers will have some competition from unlikely places, and Kansas State is a program that’s not about to willingly backtrack in the North. Ron Prince added a bevy of junior college talent that should shore up defensive issues. Although Nebraska won last year’s game by 42 points, losing to this team on the round would be a serious setback.
Kansas State
Big Win: Texas Tech
Must Win: Nebraska
Kansas State was looking for a big bowl game berth after a 5-3 start. Then they couldn’t find another win. Coach Ron Prince has hit the juco ranks hard to try to field a defense that won’t be decimated by pass heavy attacks like last year. The key to a turnaround this year will be the maturity of quarterback Josh Freeman and his ability to create plays rather than force them.
With the schedule turnaround, Kansas State takes on Oklahoma and Texas Tech at home and takes on Texas A&M on the road. While the game against Oklahoma might not be much of a contest, a victory against Texas Tech would show how great the potential is for the Wildcats. The defense will be tested heavily, but a victory would definitely shake up things in the Big 12 North title race.
Losing to Nebraska would also shake things up, but not in a good way for Wildcat fans. Last year’s 42 point loss to the Huskers was a season low, and revenge will definitely be on the mind of fans come November 15. Kansas State has added some substantial depth, and a win here could catapult the Cats into vying for a bowl berth that they so desperately need.
Iowa State
Big Win: Oklahoma State
Must Win: Baylor
Gene Chizik’s first year brought some surprising wins and it gave Cyclone fans enough to look forward to the upcoming season. The loss of QB Bret Meyer makes for an intriguing battle for the position, but the return of all five starters on the offensive line is sure to play a big role for this year’s team.
It’s possible for Iowa State to go 2-2 in non-conference play, and end up 2-3 when Baylor comes into town. The Cyclones need to beat Baylor not only for the conference victory, but to steer away from ending up in last place in the Big 12. Beating Baylor would run their record to 3-3, and make a bowl a game a real, but not guaranteed, possibility.
Iowa State plays Texas A&M at home, but the big game will be their matchup at Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The notoriously underachieving Cowboys tend to over look these games. A win here and possible victories over Nebraska and Kansas State would have the Cyclones playing in December.
That's how it going to break down. Think you know something about the Big 12 North? Make a post on the message board or e-mail me and I'll be happy to break it down.