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Big 12
Fearless Predictions
Aug. 30
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Sept. 6
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Big 12 Week Three Predictions
How are the picks so far? SU:
21-2 ... ATS: 8-8
SMU (1-1) at Texas Tech (2-0),
7:00 EST
Why to watch: If John Jenkins or
Mouse Davis dreamt up a college football
game, it would look something like this
weekend’s contest between SMU and Texas
Tech. With June Jones and Mike Leach in
the same building, records for combined
passing attempts and yards could be in
jeopardy. While the Red Raiders are 2-0,
they haven’t been overly impressive in
wins over Eastern Washington and Nevada.
Is there cause for concern about the
nation’s No. 12 team? We won’t know for
sure until Tech begins the Big 12
portion of its schedule in three weeks.
The Mustangs cruised past Texas State,
47-36, for the first win in the Jones
era. Bo Levi Mitchell gave a glimpse of
the future on the Hilltop, throwing five
touchdown passes, but SMU has a long way
to go before producing similar results
versus stiffer competition.
Why SMU might win: Although it’s
just two games, the run-and-shoot
offense is showing signs of progress in
Dallas. Sure, Texas State was on the
other sideline, but Mitchell was sharp
with his passes, and Emmanuel Sanders
and Aldrick Robinson give him two very
dangerous targets. Texas Tech has looked
vulnerable in pass defense, something
SMU plans to expose further in Lubbock.
Why Texas Tech might win:
Offensively speaking, the Red Raiders
reside where the Mustangs hope to be in
a few years. Texas Tech houses one of
the nation’s sharpest passing games,
featuring QB Graham Harrell and
Biletnikoff winner Michael Crabtree. The
attack hasn’t exactly erupted in the
first two games, but the SMU defense is
likely to foster the spark. It’s a
brutal unit that’s already permitted 10
touchdown passes, four in last week’s
win over Texas State.
Who to watch: While Crabtree
deservedly gets most of the pub among
the receivers, sophomore Detron Lewis is
beginning to make a name for himself as
well. He’s got 12 catches for 209 yards,
benefiting from all of the attention
being given to his teammates. With Bryan
McCann likely to shadow Crabtree, Lewis
could have a 10-catch night against the
corner-deprived Mustangs.
What will happen: Leach needs to
get his Red Raiders playing better
before the schedule toughens. He also
wouldn’t mind showing Jones who’s the
boss in Texas when it comes to mad
scientists. Tech won’t punt, scoring at
least 10 points in every frame
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 58 …
SMU 17 ... Line: Texas Tech -26
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in
the Wall - 1 First Blood) …
2
-
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New Mexico State (0-0) at Nebraska (2-0),
7:00 EST
Why to watch: No, New Mexico
State didn’t drop its football program.
Because of Hurricane Gustav, the
season-opening tune-up against Nicholls
State was cancelled, meaning the Aggies
are coming into Lincoln cold. On the
plus side, Nebraska doesn’t have any
2008 film on Chase Holbrook and the
potentially high-octane attack. The
Huskers will have to fight through the
temptation of looking ahead to the
showdown with Virginia Tech in two weeks
with Missouri to follow. After battling
with Western Michigan and San Jose State
in games that were a bit tougher than
the double-digit margins might indicate,
there’s still room for improvement. If
nothing else, facing the Aggie passing
game will be a good warm-up for Missouri
and Texas Tech, the first two Big 12
games on the slate.
Why New Mexico State might win:
All the parts are back from the
fifth-leading passing attack of 2007.
The Aggies averaged 332 passing yards
per game and have plenty of time to
practice, and plenty of film time to get
to know Nebraska. Even though there’s
been a solid pass rush to help the
cause, the Husker secondary has been
awful so far allowing 342 yards to
Western Michigan and 242 to San Jose
State. A work in progress, the Nebraska
defensive backs will have their hands
full.
Why Nebraska might win: The
Huskers have a pass rush. Getting into
the backfield hasn’t been a problem
under Bo Pelini and the new coaching
staff, cranking out six sacks and 13
tackles for loss in the first two games.
If the defensive front can throw off
Holbrook’s timing and force him to make
a few mistakes, the opportunistic Husker
offense should be able to take
advantage. New Mexico State doesn’t have
a good enough defense to keep the
Nebraska attack from cranking out fewer
than 400 yards.
Who to watch: The chance is there
for Holbrook to generate a major buzz.
He wasn’t necessarily a disappointment
last season, but he didn’t build on his
tremendous 4,541-yard, 34-touchdown
first season with twice as many
interceptions (18 to just nine thrown in
2007), almost 800 fewer yards, and far
more mistakes. He has his top target,
Chris Williams, back and healthy, he has
the offense down pat, and he has the
green light to fun ‘n’ gun it as much as
he needs to against the Huskers.
What will happen: Holbrook will
throw for 400 yards and will give the
Husker secondary fits, but the Nebraska
offense will roll at will with a
balanced attack that’ll explode in the
second half.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 52 … New
Mexico State 31 ... Line: Nebraska -25
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in
the Wall - 1 First Blood) …
2
-
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Missouri State (0-1) at Oklahoma State
(2-0),
7:05 EST
Why to watch: If Oklahoma State
felt so inclined, it could show the
world what 700 yards and 100 points in
one game looks like. Missouri State,
coached by former Kansas head coach
Terry Allen, would be the bottom-feeder
of the Gateway Conference if it wasn’t
for Indiana State. The Bears lost to
Washburn 35-27 to open up the season,
and with a mediocre defense, has no shot
of slowing down the Cowboys. OSU is in
full-blown tune-up mode with Troy next
week and then the Big 12 opener against
Texas A&M. So far, in two games against
decent name opponents, OSU has blasted
Washington State and Houston with 1,066
yards of total offense and 95 points.
Why Missouri State might win: The
offense should be able to keep up the
pace for a little while. The no-huddle
attack has enough good weapons to crank
out a few drives and score some early
points. The OSU defense hasn’t been a
rock so far against the pass allowing
235 yards per game. MSU should be able
to come up with a 300-yard day in
constant catch-up mode.
Why Oklahoma State might win: The
offense has been nearly perfect so far.
The Cowboys are running for 277 yards
per game and passing for 257 yards, and
they should be able to exceed both of
those marks. The OSU offensive line will
dominate the MSU defensive line giving
QB Zac Robinson as much time as he needs
while paving the way for at least 350
yards on the ground.
Who to watch: Has anyone ever
heard of sophomore Kendall Hunter? The
Oklahoma State back ran for 107 yards
and two touchdowns against Washington
State and ripped up 210 yards and two
scores against Houston. While he doesn’t
have the speed and talent of recent
Cowboy stars, he’s a big play back who
plays bigger than his 5-8 size.
What will happen: Oklahoma State
will be able to call its shot. It’ll get
up 50 before throwing in the third
teamers.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 65
… Missouri State 17 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in
the Wall - 1 First Blood) …
1
-
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Oklahoma (2-0) at Washington
(0-2),
7:45 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: A couple of
convincing wins over Chattanooga
and Cincinnati have Oklahoma on
the doorstep of a No. 1 ranking,
a familiar position for the
program during the Bob Stoops
era. The Sooners ransacked a
quality Bearcat defense, 52-26,
getting a monster performance
from QB Sam Bradford. The
offense, in general, is flush
with playmakers and appears
unstoppable for a second
straight year in-a-row. Heading
out on the road for the first
time, Oklahoma must guard
against looking past a wounded
Washington team that’ll be
playing with a sense of
desperation. The Huskies are 0-2
and coming off a heartbreaking
one-point loss to BYU that was
headed to overtime before an
extra point was blocked. They’ve
got to somehow find the energy
to avoid another loss in a
season that’s about to spiral
out of control.
Why Oklahoma might win:
Right now, there may be two or
three defenses in the country
that can slow down the Sooners.
Washington is not one of them.
The way Bradford is hurling and
DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown
are running behind the standout
line, Oklahoma is capable of
reaching 50 points for a third
consecutive week. The young
Husky D is ranked 113th
nationally and lacks the speed
and stoppers needed to keep the
Sooners from running circles
around them. U-Dub will need
some wet and windy weather
coming off Puget Sound, and
Gordon Giese in the replay
booth, to have a chance of
stopping the OU attack.
Why Washington might win:
If you want to nitpick about
Oklahoma through two games, the
defense won’t remind anyone of
some of Barry Switzer’s stingier
teams. Cincinnati’s Dustin
Grutza had success through the
air on the Sooners, lending hope
that Jake Locker can also move
the chains. It won’t be easy
running the ball on a front that
includes Gerald McCoy and Auston
English, so Locker will get
vertical early, looking to hook
up with D’Andre Goodwin and TE
Kavario Middleton. If the
receivers can start hanging on
to the ball, Washington showed
last week that it can hang with
a high-powered ranked team,
especially at home.
Who to watch: Oklahoma WR
Ryan Broyles had the kind of
debut versus Cincinnati that
reminded everyone in Norman why
they couldn’t wait to see him on
the field. Against one of the
nation’s premier secondaries, he
caught seven passes for 141
yards and a touchdown. He’s
expected to be special once he
develops a better rapport with
Bradford.
What will happen: Had
Washington beaten BYU, maybe
there would be a puncher’s
chance. However, the air might
have left the program when Ryan
Perkins’ extra point was blocked
at the end of regulation. That’s
no way to go into a game with an
Oklahoma program that’s capable
of mauling any team that can’t
produce four quarters of
mistake-free football
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma
34 … Washington 12 ... Line: Oklahoma
-20.5
Must See Rating: (5
Hole in the Wall - 1
First Blood) … 2.5
-
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Big 12 Week Three Predictions