Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 15

Previews and Predictions for the Week 12 Big 12 Games

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Big 12 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27 | Oct. 4 | Oct. 11 | Oct. 18 | Oct. 25 | Nov. 1 | Nov. 8

- Big 12 Predictions, Nov. 15, Part 2 (Mizzou vs. ISU)

How are the picks so far? SU: 70-12 ... ATS: 35-38

Big 12 Game of the Week

Texas (9-1) at Kansas (6-4), 12:30 EST
Why to watch: Score early, score often. Now is not the time for Texas to be about sportsmanship or to worry about hurt feelings. It needs to win and win big to try to impress the pollsters who help decide the BCS rankings because if there’s one slip, and it could be a close win over KU this week or over Texas A&M in a couple of weeks, it’s over. To play for the Big 12 title, Texas needs Oklahoma to beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, or for the Red Raiders to lose to OU and be upset by Baylor. The problem kicks in when the pollsters vote, because if OU wins its last two games, and if it does it impressively, Texas could be on the outside of the tie-breaker looking in. But first things first, the machine has to keep rolling against a KU team that has firepower, but has hit the wall with three losses in its last four games. The defense has gone bye-bye, and the offense, while producing, isn’t doing enough. Even with the problems, KU could still play for the Big 12 title by beating Texas and Missouri while hoping for Nebraska, who beat the Jayhawks 45-35 last week, to lose one of its last two games. Basically, each team needs the win in what should be yet another Big 12 shootout.
Why Texas might win: Pass defense? To have the worst pass defense in the Big 12 this season is sort of like being the worst Jonas Brothers song; you have to be extra-special bad to get to that level. In the last four games, KU allowed 468 yards to OU, 418 (and six touchdowns) to Texas Tech, 264 to Kansas State and 328 last week to Nebraska. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line isn’t doing enough to protect Todd Reesing, who was beaten up by Nebraska last week.
Why Kansas might win: Reesing’s a gunner. Yeah, the KU pass defense is the worst in the Big 12, but the Texas secondary hasn’t exactly been a prize allowing a mere nine fewer passing yards per game than KU. Texas didn’t look tired against Baylor last week, but it struggled a wee bit to put the game away, having problems with BU QB Robert Griffin. Reesing isn’t going to run like Griffin, but he should put up 300 yards and he should be able to crank out several big plays.
Who to watch: Good luck getting any all-star recognition this year in the Big 12 if you’re a wide receiver. Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant are locks, while Jeremy Maclin deserves All-America honors. Meanwhile, Texas senior Jordan Shipley has been every bit as good catching 70 passes for 860 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he has been a sparkplug on special teams returning two punts over the last two weeks fro 68 yards and a touchdown, and nine kickoffs for 275 yards and a score. He has scored at least once in every game this season.
What will happen: Texas will have to gear it up for yet another shootout, and while Reesing will be special, he’ll get hit just enough slow down the KU offense in key moments late. He already has a leg injury, and his limp isn’t going to improve against the Longhorn defensive front.
CFN Prediction: Texas 44 … Kansas 24 ... Line: Texas -13
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 4
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 Saturday, November 15

Nebraska (6-4) at Kansas State (4-6), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: Nebraska is still in the Big 12 title chase after beating Kansas 45-35 last week in Lincoln. It would take a minor miracle, Missouri has to lose to both Iowa State and Kansas (but both games are away from Columbia), and Nebraska has to beat KSU this week and close with a win over Colorado. The offense is starting to do more and more while the passing game has cranked things up a notch over the last month as the Huskers have won three of their last four games. Meanwhile, Kansas State is still dealing with the firing of Ron Prince, who’ll be out at the end of the season. On a four game losing streak, and going 1-5 in the Big 12, this has been a lost year for the Wildcat program, but if it can pull out home wins over Nebraska and Iowa State, it’s going bowling.
Why Nebraska might win: The Kansas State defense has been bad against the pass and horrific against the run. The defensive front is getting shoved all over the place, and has been all year, while the defense as a whole has allowed 500 yards or more of total offense in six of the last eight games. Nebraska’s attack is just starting to get rolling on the ground at the right time, stringing together four nice games in a row, while the attack has gone for 418 yards or more in each of the last five games.
Why Kansas State might win: Nebraska is more than happy to give the ball away. Over the last four games, the Husker offense has lost eight fumbles and three interceptions. While the attack has made up for most of the problems by producing, it won’t be a plus if Kansas State gets several easy chances. Turnovers have been an even bigger problem for the Wildcats, so they can’t blow their opportunities by giving them back. Offensively, while the passing game has struggled a bit lately, it has the make up to hang 400 yards on the Huskers if Josh Freeman is getting time.
Who to watch: Sam Keller was the Nebraska quarterback throughout last year, and then Joe Ganz took over late. He had a nice first day as the starter in a 76-39 loss to Kansas, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns with four interceptions, and then his career took off thanks to his afternoon against Kansas State. Ganz completed 30-of-40 passes for 510 yards and seven touchdowns with no picks in the 73-31 win. In 13 games since he has become the starter, Ganz has averaged 328 passing yards per game with 35 touchdowns. He has gone over 300 yards in eight of the 13 games, and he should be able to hit the mark again this week.
What will happen: Kansas State will play inspired at home with one of its best offensive performances of the year. Nebraska will come up with a little bit more in a team-with-the-ball-last win that’ll solidify the bowl position.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 44 … Kansas State 38 ... Line: Nebraska -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 3
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Texas A&M (4-6) at Baylor (3-7), 4 EST
Why to watch: It’s the battle for the Big 12 basement, but its not as ugly as it might appear. They’ve suffered from being in the best division in college football in a year when any of the other four teams in the South might be good enough to win any other conference in America. Baylor is growing into a living, breathing program under Art Briles, and while the bowl hopes are gone thanks to a four-game losing streak, there have been competitive battles against Nebraska, Missouri and Texas over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is still in the mix for a bowl game if it can win in Waco this week and upset Texas on Thanksgiving weekend. The Aggies aren’t exactly coming in on a high note, giving up the most points ever allowed by the home team in Kyle Field in a 66-28 blasting by Oklahoma. The two teams might not be doing too much to challenge the big boys, but they have two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks in Baylor’s Robert Griffin and Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson.
Why Texas A&M might win: The Baylor pass rush hasn’t even been close. As a result, the secondary is getting picked apart on a weekly basis. While A&M has been abysmal in pass protection, Johnson has been able to produce some big numbers despite getting no time to work. If he’s able to set up, he should light up the BU secondary like a Christmas tree.
Why Baylor might win: Griffin should go ballistic on the ground. The Baylor quarterback has been decent at getting the passing game going, but he has been at his best when he gets on the move. He has rushed for 688 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year going over 100 yards in two of the last three games, and he should be able to do it again against the porous A&M defensive front. Everyone’s getting fat off the Aggie run defense this year.
Who to watch: Baylor sophomore RB Jay Finley has played second fiddle to Griffin, but he’s proving to be a good enough back to work around for the next few years. He hasn’t carried the ball more than 15 times in any game so far, but he has done a decent job when he has gotten the chance with 88 yards against Nebraska and 73 against Missouri. He’s a decent receiver, but he hasn’t been used as one enough despite catching three passes for 53 yards and a score against Mizzou. Against the lousy Aggie run defense that’ll have everyone trained on containing Griffin, Finley could go over the 100-yard mark for the second time all year.
What will happen: Baylor won’t be able to slow down the A&M passing game. Griffin and the ground game will produce, but they won’t be able to keep up in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 34 … Baylor 31 ... Line: Baylor -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 2
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Big 12 Predictions, Nov. 15, Part 2 (Mizzou vs. ISU)