Scout.com: Big 12 Fearless Picks ... Let Bedlam Ensue

Big 12 Fearless Picks ... Let Bedlam Ensue

Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson

By Pete Fiutak

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 26, 2008

There's one possibility in this whole equation that no one is talking about ... maybe the BCS rankings aren't going to be needed to break the Big 12 South tie. Is it possible for Zac Robinson and Oklahoma State to pull off the shocker against Oklahoma? Check out the Previews and Predictions for the Week 14 Big 12 Games

Big 12 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27 | Oct. 4 | Oct. 11 | Oct. 18 | Oct. 25 | Nov. 1 | Nov. 8 | Nov. 15
- Nov. 22

Oklahoma (10-1) at Oklahoma State (9-2), 8:00 EST ABC
Why to watch: In 2002, Oklahoma was trying to stay in the national title chase, but lost its regular season finale at Oklahoma State 38-28. In 2001, the Sooners were third in the BCS rankings with their destiny in their own hands before losing to a 3-7 Oklahoma State team 16-13 to not only ruin national title dreams, but to also allow Texas to play for the Big 12 title (and choke away its own national title shot in a loss to Colorado). OU has had its comeuppance with five straight wins in the series, and now it needs to not only come up with a sixth straight victory, but it also has to do it with some pizzazz.

The drill is simple. If Texas Tech beats Baylor, then Oklahoma has to win this game and hope for either Texas to lose to Texas A&M or else get more love from the BCS computers to win the three-way tie in the South. The humans are on Sooners’ side with the coaches ranking them second in their poll and the Harris types ranking them fourth after the dominant 65-21 win over Texas Tech, but the computers aren’t as impressed. The OU offense has been a machine, averaging 59.2 points per game since the loss to Texas, hanging 50 or more in seven games and 60 or more in the last three. When it comes to style, Tim Gunn has nothing on this offense. Even the maligned defense has come through holding teams down just enough so the offense can do its thing. Texas Tech’s high-octane offense sputtered and coughed all game long in the blowout.

On the other side, Oklahoma State is lying in wait. The Jeff Wiggle in the Big 12 South foursome, the Cowboys have had their moments, highlighted by a win at Missouri and a great game at Texas in a 28-24 loss, but they’ve been knocked out of the spotlight after getting drilled 56-20 by Texas Tech. A win this week would boost up the bowl stock immeasurably and would send the BCS into a tizzy. It would also, barring a major upset from Baylor, put Texas Tech into the Big 12 title game against Missouri.

Why Oklahoma might win: The same formula that worked against Texas Tech should work against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have a decent defense, but it can be thrown on and if there isn’t any pressure, get ready for another 60s revival on the scoreboard. Graham Harrell had ten days to throw in Texas Tech’s blowout over OSU completing 40-of-50 passes for 456 yards and six touchdowns, while his backup, Taylor Potts, completed all five of his throw for 60 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is completing close to 70% of his passes as he’s been eating defenses alive all season long by putting the ball in places where his vast array of weapons can do something with it. In his last three games he has thrown for 935 yards and 13 touchdowns with just one interception. If OSU doesn’t bring the pressure, he’ll complete 75% of his throws and all but engrave his name on the Heisman.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Oklahoma State will bring the pressure. Don’t underestimate the importance of having two weeks off to prepare for a big rivalry game like this. All Oklahoma has talked about since the Texas Tech game has been the BCS, style points, and why it should be playing for the national championship. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has been forgotten about; it’s an afterthought. No one is going to pick the Cowboys to win. In fact, everyone will be assuming this will be another Texas Tech debacle … for both teams. How did Oklahoma lose to Texas? The running game kept things moving, and Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball on the Sooner defensive front better than anyone has since that loss in Dallas. Jordan Shipley came up with a game-changing kick return for a score, and Oklahoma State is second in the nation in punt returns and has been tremendous all year long on special teams. And Colt McCoy was deadly accurate. The OSU offensive line is better than any line OU has faced all season long, outside of its own practices. QB Zac Robinson is far more mobile than Graham Harrell, and while OU might try to bring the pressure like it did last week, it’s not likely to have the same success.
Who to watch: Oklahoma State can’t win with its passing game. It has to get a big day out of the running backs, and it needs Kendall Hunter to play at close to 100%. Getting two weeks off was vital, as the Cowboy star has been trying to get over a quadriceps injury, and now he appears to be fine. The Big 12’s leading rusher has torn off over 100 yards in every game but two, getting 90 against Texas A&M and 93 against Baylor. It’ll take Hunter, Keith Toston, and the running of Robinson to get the nation’s eighth ranked rushing offense moving on OU.
What will happen: One of two things will happen. Oklahoma will prove it’s a national title-caliber powerhouse by blowing through Stillwater with a 30+ point win and yet another nuclear offensive display, or the team will come in overconfident, Oklahoma State will be well-prepared, and this will be an epic firefight with the Cowboys pulling off the stunner. You know the BCS chase isn’t going to end up as cut-and-dry easy as it appears to be right now, so …
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 … Oklahoma 42 ... Line: Oklahoma -8
Must See Rating: (5 Football while eating Thanksgiving food – 1 Home movies after dinner) … 5
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections | Get Tickets

Thursday, November 27

Texas A&M (4-7) at Texas (10-1), 8:00 EST ESPN
Why to watch: Texas A&M stinks and Texas has the talent and the potential to play for the national title. The Longhorns lost one game in the final seconds on the greatest play in the history of Texas Tech football, while A&M has lost two straight and five of its last seven thanks to one of the worst defenses in a season of awful defensive seasons. So this is a cut and dry blowout, right? Yeah, just like 2007, and 2006, and even 2005. Last year, the Longhorns lost to a mediocre Aggie team 38-30 in College Station. Two years ago Texas was still in the thick of the national title hunt despite a late loss to Kansas State, and it just needed to get by A&M to play for the Big 12 title, but Colt McCoy was hurt and the Aggies pulled off a 12-7 win. Three years ago, A&M and Stephen McGee gave Vince Young and Texas a mega-scare. This really has been the embodiment of the throw-out-the-record-books cliché when it comes to the rivalry, and this year, if A&M pulls it off, it might be the biggest shocker of the bunch.

Here’s the deal. If A&M wins, year one of the Mike Sherman era ends on the highest of highs and there’s a ton of positive momentum after a tough, inconsistent transition season. However, if the Aggies get blasted, this becomes a nightmare of a year with little positive to take away from it. For all the negatives from the Dennis Franchione regime, his teams showed up over the last few years for this one. Meanwhile, Texas has to win and win big. Really big. Like, jaw-dropping number big. For right or wrong, that’s the game the Big 12 South is playing at this point, and everyone knows the scenario (for those who don’t, if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South by beating Baylor, while a three-way tie between Texas, OU and Texas Tech goes to the BCS rankings). Texas might be No. 2 now in the BCS rankings, but that’s because the computers are saving the day. The humans in both polls that matter, the Coaches’ and Harris, have Oklahoma ranked higher, and that’s not going to change if the Sooners beat the Cowboys. In fact, both human polls have Texas fourth, with the coaches putting OU at two and the Harris types putting the Sooners third.

35-14 probably won’t cut it for Mack Brown’s club, and now isn’t the time to talk about sportsmanship, fair play, and all of that. Texas, you’ve lost the last two years to this team. If you want to play for the national title, you have to come out roaring and you can’t let up until the final gun sounds. Texas A&M, it’s your job to not only try to win the game, but if that’s not going to happen, to keep the score from being crazy. It’s not Brown’s job to be nice and not try in the fourth quarter with a 31 point lead. Not now.

Why Texas A&M might win: The Aggies have the ability to bomb away, and Texas, for all the good things it has done, has the potential of buckling under the pressure. All the weight in the world is on Texas to not only win the game, but to win by a bazillion points. As much as Brown and the team might not want to talk about style points, that’s all anyone is thinking about. So what happens if A&M starts scoring in bunches? The Texas secondary has improved a great deal over the last year, but it’s still beatable. A&M QB Jerrod Johnson has made a slew of mistakes, throwing six interceptions in his last two games, but he has also jump-started the Aggie passing game. Forget about the running game; A&M will come out swinging from the get-go. This team might go down, but it’ll go down with Johnson throwing the ball 45 times and with 300 yards under his belt.
Why Texas might win: Texas A&M can’t play a lick of defense. Texas has to avoid the temptation of trying to score 45 points on its opening drive, and before dealing with the style point aspect, it just has to run the offense. A&M’s defensive front should get shoved all over the place; Texas can win this game by running the ball 40 times. There isn’t nearly enough of a pass rush threat from the Aggie front seven to make McCoy nervous, so the potential is there for him to come up with a Heisman-caliber performance with huge numbers as long as he’s patient, takes what the D is giving him, and works with the safe, easy throws.
Who to watch: For all the great things McCoy has done throughout his career, at the moment, he’s the guy who lost to A&M twice. He had no business playing two years ago, he was at less than 50% health-wise and threw three picks in the 12-7 loss. Last year, he completed just 17-of-32 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown with an interception in the loss. This season he has had a Heisman-caliber season with 30 touchdown passes, just seven interceptions and 527 rushing yards with eight scores, but he needs to have his best game of the year to win over the voters in the BCS race along with the Heisman types.
What will happen: Texas A&M will get enough points and yards to keep up for a little while, but the Texas machine will kick in full-force after halftime as McCoy puts on a clinic.
CFN Prediction: Texas 48 … Texas A&M 20 ... Line: Texas -35
Must See Rating: (5 Football while eating Thanksgiving food – 1 Home movies after dinner) … 3.5
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections | Get Tickets

- Big 12 Predictions, Nov. 29, Part 2 (Colorado vs. Nebraska)

RELATED SITES

Places to go:

Things to do:

Things to buy:

Things to know: