C-USA Fearless Predictions, Aug. 30

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 C-USA Games

News ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC | M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC
Players ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC | M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC
Storylines ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC | M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP

- Conference USA Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2

C-USA Game of the Week

Virginia Tech at East Carolina, 12:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: The defending ACC champion Hokies will need to plug a bunch of holes on both sides of the ball to remain on top. The Hokies have been gutted by graduations, dismissals, and injuries, especially at the skills positions and front seven. The backs and receivers might have to wear tags in the early going just to make things a little easier on anointed starting quarterback Sean Glennon, who’ll be under more scrutiny than ever with Tyrod Taylor about to redshirt. Yeah, this is still “Vah Tech” and the Coastal Division is there for the taking, but help will be needed from plenty of first-time starters. On the other side, fresh off a newly signed contract, East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz has led the way to back-to-back winning seasons as he has inched the program back to the glory days. The next step for the Pirates is to win the Conference USA title, which slipped through their grasp last November. Holtz has more depth than he’s ever had in Greenville, and beating Virginia Tech in Charlotte would be the type of landmark win that creates national exposure.
Why Virginia Tech might win: Even with the turnover on defense, the Hokies still boast a fast, high-effort unit capable of overwhelming the Pirates. Orion Martin and Jason Worilds will be tough to contain off the edge, and the Macho Harris-led secondary will keep the ECU passing game in check. The Pirates have issues of their own in a post-Chris Johnson world, searching for playmakers capable of stretching quality defenses. Their issues in pass protection are going to get exposed by defensive coordinator Bud Foster, who’ll make sure Patrick Pinkney feels the heat in the pocket.
Why East Carolina might win: Where is the Virginia Tech offense going to come from? Sure, Glennon is a good veteran, but his supporting cast has almost no experience collectively. Injuries have made replacing leading rusher Branden Ore a chore and the receiving corps is paper-thin after the tight ends. Plus, the inconsistent Hokie offensive line will have its hands full with a Pirate front loaded with returning starters and super-sized interior linemen. If ends C.J. Wilson and Zack Slate can create some havoc in the backfield, Tech will help from other places to get on the board. 
Who to watch: Until a reliable rotation is developed at wide receiver, Glennon will spend plenty of time looking for full-figured TE Greg Boone. Surprisingly agile at 6-3 and 290 pounds, he’ll lumber like wrecking ball through the undersized East Carolina back seven. Pencil him in for a touchdown reception and a few broken tackles Saturday afternoon.
What will happen: After nearly knocking off Tech in Blacksburg last September, East Carolina won’t be intimidated, especially at a neutral site. The Pirates’ upset bid will be foiled by a lack of execution on offense and too many turnovers. The Hokies will play it safe, leaning on the ground game and defense to escape with a win.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 20 ... East Carolina 13 ... Line: Virginia Tech -10
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 3
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Thursday, August 28

UTEP at Buffalo, 7:00 EST
Why to watch: Now that Buffalo head coach Turner Gill has sufficiently gotten the rest of the MAC’s attention, he’s aiming to keep the Bulls from reverting back to old habits. A perennial doormat in the conference, Buffalo rose up to go 5-3 in league play to nearly win the East Division. With 10 starters back on offense and all-star S Davonte Shannon patrolling the secondary, the Bulls are shooting for .500 for the first time since the 20^th century. Mike Price, on the other hand, is headed in the opposite direction. Since debuting with eight wins in 2005, his Miners have plummeted the last two seasons, showing an inability to finish games or seasons strong. He has a player to build around in QB Trevor Vittatoe, but unless the defense perks up under new coordinator Osia Lewis, UTEP will miss the postseason for a third straight year.
Why UTEP might win: The Miners won’t have many problems moving the ball on the Buffalo defense. Vittatoe was outstanding as a freshman, forming an instant connection with big-play receiver Jeff Moturi. Sure, RB Marcus Thomas will be missed, but speedy Terrell Jackson and Donald Buckram are ready to fill the void. The line is big and tough on the left side, with all-leaguer Robby Felix at the pivot and Mike Aguayo and Cameron Raschke manning tackle and guard, respectively.
Why Buffalo might win: The Miners will score, but so will the Bulls. The UTEP defense is in disarray, a perfect opportunity for the Buffalo offense to keep last November’s momentum going. Drew Willy is back for his fourth season as the starting quarterback, drawing some attention from NFL scouts. He’ll be surrounded by 1,000-yard rusher James Starks, top receivers Naaman Roosevelt and Ernest Jackson, and four-fifths of last year’s starting line. As the Miners adapt to Lewis’ new 3-3-5 set, they’re going to take their lumps.
Who to watch: In just one season, Shannon proved to be a steal of a recruit and a shining star out of the Buffalo secondary. As a freshman, he showed rare ability for a young safety, combining the cover skills of a corner with the punch of a linebacker. He’ll be everywhere for the Bull defense, pressing up to stop the run while supporting the corners in pass defense.
What will happen: With both teams leaning heavily on the offense, the ingredients are in place for an entertaining shootout in Upstate New York. While the Miners and Bulls will do a fair amount of scoring, UTEP’s inability to make stops late in the game will be the difference. It’ll be a bad omen for a program that’s seen too many of these types of track meets slip through their fingertips.
CFN Prediction: Buffalo 35 … UTEP 31 ... Line: Buffalo -3
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 2
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Friday, August 29

SMU at Rice, 8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Although SMU vs. Rice is unlikely to have any bearing down the road on the Conference USA race, it sure is going to be fun. The Mustangs begin a new era with June Jones at the controls, holding out hope that he can do for the program what he did for Hawaii. Whether the players are ready or not, he’ll be installing the run-and-shoot offense that’s been his calling card everywhere he’s coached. Jones has already started paying dividends, attracting a national TV audience for his Dallas debut. After slipping to 3-9 in David Bailiff’s first season, Rice is hoping to recapture the magic that led to an unexpected bowl game in 2006. While the offense is set with QB Chase Clement back to distribute the ball, the defense has to make a quantum leap for the Owls to get back on track.
Why SMU might win: The new offense may not be a finished product, but it’s far enough along to navigate one of the nation’s most deplorable pass defenses. It certainly helps getting back Justin Willis, one of the league’s premier quarterbacks and a good fit for a system that relies on short strikes, but in the big story of the Conference USA summer, Bo Levi Mitchell won the starting job. He’s the focal point of the offense, and he’s expected to be a great one. The receiving tandem of Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson will spend most of the night knifing through the Owl secondary.
Why Rice might win: SMU is trying to become an explosive offense. Rice is already there. Clement is one of the nation’s best-kept secrets, making plays with his feet and getting the ball in the hands of his talented receivers. Jarett Dillard is the undisputed star of the group, but now he has support from Toren Dixon and the versatile James Casey. The Owls will move the ball at will on a Mustang D that has no pass rush and will get lit up throughout the year.
Who to watch: The offenses will make the headlines, but the defenses will still show up. The most influential defender will be Owl DE Scott Solomon, who’s on the verge of erupting in his second season and will get plenty of chances to rush the passer. His match ups with the Mustang tackles will be one-sided, keeping Willis from getting cozy in the pocket.
What will happen: Tackling will be optional in a game that’ll be dominated by the quarterbacks and will go back-and-forth for four quarters. The Owls are home and have been running their offense longer than the Mustangs, the decisive advantages in an otherwise even match up.
CFN Prediction: Rice 44 … SMU 38 ... Line: Rice -3.5.
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 2.5
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Saturday, August 30

Tulsa at UAB, 4:00 EST
Why to watch: Record-setting QB Paul Smith is gone, but Tulsa is still going to fill the air with passes and contend for a West Division crown. Although he could share snaps with Jacob Bower, long-time understudy David Johnson is being handed the keys to Gus Malzahn’s high-octane offensive machine. The transition to a new triggerman will be made easier by an abundance of skill position talent that resembles a Big 12 roster. UAB begins its second season under Neil Calloway with modest expectations to improve its depth, reduce its mistakes, and become more competitive in league games. The former Georgia assistant has an uphill climb, inheriting a program that’s light on talent and competing in the same state as Alabama and Auburn.
Why Tulsa might win: As prolific as Smith was in 2007, he also was a system guy, meaning he’s not irreplaceable. The Hurricane will continue scoring in bunches, especially against a Blazer D that won’t generate a pass rush or contain a group of incendiary receivers headed by Brennan Marion and Trae Johnson. When Tulsa wants to get a little more conservative, it can throw to H-back extraordinaire Charles Clay or hand the ball to one of two former 1,000-yard rushers, Tarrion Adams or Courtney Tennial.
Why UAB might win: Tulsa has defensive problems of its own, having to replace last year’s top three tacklers, while tightening up in pass coverage. The Blazers are finally giving the ball to QB Joseph Webb, who can throw lasers and escape pressure when the pocket collapses. He’ll make good use of a physical corps of receivers that includes Frantrell Forrest and Mario Wright. Until the Hurricane shows it can play consistent on defense, it’ll get pushed by plenty of lesser opponents.
Who to watch: Marion practically came out of nowhere last season, his first at Tulsa, to catch 39 passes for 1,244 yards and 11 touchdowns. The definition of a long-ball threat, he’ll toast the Blazer corners at least once on a deep route, while clearing out room for the underneath receivers.
What will happen: After winning 10 games, head coach Todd Graham wants to show that Tulsa is a school that retools rather than rebuilds. Racing past UAB and notching an early league win will be nice places to start. The Hurricane will amass more than 500 yards of offense and won’t  be threatened.  
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 38 … UAB 20  ... Line: Tulsa -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 2
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Illinois State at Marshall, 4:30 EST
Why to watch: After grappling with mediocrity for four consecutive years, Marshall feels it’s finally ready to turn the corner and begin competing for a postseason game. It better be or else head coach Mark Snyder won’t be back for a fifth season in Huntington. The Herd likes its depth on both sides of the ball, and is thrilled to be getting back DE Albert McClellan, the league’s 2006 Defensive Player of the Year who missed last year with a knee injury. All eyes will be on Mark Cann, a redshirt freshman looking to end Marshall’s recent run of futility at quarterback. Illinois State is a bottom-feeder out of the Missouri Valley Conference, coming off a dismal 4-7 season and trying to replace all-star QB Luke Drone. Head coach Denver Johnson begins his ninth season with the program, having led the Redbirds to the playoffs just once.
Why Illinois State might win: For all of the uncertainty the Redbirds are facing, the running game will be fine. Starter Geno Blow is healthy again after sitting out the final two games with a fractured hand. Before the injury, he’d ripped off five straight 100-yard games. He’ll be joined by former Big Ten backs Walter Mendenhall and E.J. Jones, who’ll be looking to move the chains on a Marshall D that should struggle early on against the run.
Why Marshall might win: Cann may be a first-time starter, but he’s going to get plenty of help from the skill position players. The Herd has depth and talent at running back and receiver, which is bad news for an Illinois State defense that won’t stop either. On the ground, Darius Marshall will look to follow up on a terrific freshman campaign. Up top, the quarterback will have his choice of accomplished receivers that ranges from TE Cody Slate to wideouts Darius Passmore and Emmanuel Spann.
Who to watch: The Marshall defense never recovered from the loss of McClellan last season. He’s back and just about ready to remove the toe tag from the Herd pass rush. He has an ideal opponent for a ballyhooed return to the game, a flimsy Illinois State line replacing three starters.
What will happen: Considering Marshall began last season 0-7, a visit from Illinois State will be a nice start. It’ll keep the one-dimensional Redbird offense in check and get enough timely plays from the offense to open with a win for the first time in three years.
CFN Prediction: Marshall 45 … Illinois State 10 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 1
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- Conference USA Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2