C-USA Fearless Predictions, Sept. 27

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 C-USA Games

Storylines ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC | M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP

C-USA Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20

How are the picks so far? SU: 34-11 ... ATS: 17-13

- Conference USA Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2

C-USA Game of the Week

Houston (1-3) at East Carolina (3-1), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: A few weeks ago, this was being billed as a can’t-miss Conference USA clash and a possible preview of the league championship game. Now? Not so much. East Carolina’s magical season took a detour when it was dropped in overtime by North Carolina State. While the dream of a BCS bowl game has dissipated, the goals of winning a title and playing in the Liberty Bowl are alive and well. Houston is a lot like the Pac-10 these days, underachieving and unable to beat a team from the Mountain West. Since taking care of Southern in the opener, the Cougars have lost three straight, including the last two versus Air Force and Colorado State. Kevin Sumlin is learning in his first season that more than just a suped-up offense is needed to win games.
Why Houston might win: The program may be struggling as a whole, but the offense isn’t the culprit. Sumlin lured Dana Holgorsen out of Lubbock to engineer his attack, and so far the results have been favorable. The Cougars are No. 8 nationally in total offense, averaging 526 yards, and have the country’s total offense leader, QB Case Keenum. The sophomore is performing as if the system was designed with him in mind, throwing at least three touchdown passes in each game. The East Carolina D has been suspect the last two games, especially with top LB Quentin Cotton out for the year.
Why East Carolina might win: Even with all of Houston’s offensive production, it hasn’t been enough to overcome one of the game’s worst defenses. The Cougars have been gutted in the last three weeks by the likes of Oklahoma State RB Kendall Hunter, Air Force QB Shea Smith, and Colorado State QB Billy Farris.  QB Patrick Pinkney and the Pirate running game by committee will be the next group of players to benefit from playing Houston. The Cougs are last in Conference USA run defense and are getting no help from the special teams coverage units.
Who to watch: East Carolina RB Norman Whitley needs to get more touches. It won’t be easy with Jon Williams and Brandon Simmons also in the mix, but every time he touches the ball, something good seems to happen. He’s got an extra gear when he gets outside the tackle, producing 159 yards and two scores in just 15 opportunities to get his hands on the ball.
What will happen: Although the stakes will be a little different, Skip Holtz will make sure his Pirates are focused and prepared for a rebound. Houston and Keenum will keep the game interesting for three quarters, but the Cougars’ inability to make a defensive stop will nix any chance for the upset.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 34 …. Houston 24 ... Line: East Carolina -11
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2.5
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Thursday, September 25

SMU (1-3) at Tulane (1-2), 8:00 EST, CSTV
Why to watch: As far as 1-2 teams out of Conference USA go, Tulane has played rather well in September. The losses to Alabama and East Carolina were more than respectable, and last week’s 24-10 win over Louisiana-Monroe could be a good launching point with SMU and Army about to visit the Superdome. In his first season as the defensive coordinator, O’Neill Gilbert is doing a fantastic job of molding a bunch of decent players into a rock solid unit. Gilbert’s kids will be tested by a Mustang offense that’s airing it out 40 times a game. In June Jones’ first season in Dallas, SMU hasn’t been competitive versus FBS teams, losing by an average of five touchdowns. The coach is using this season to install his run-and-shoot offense and get a better feel for the personnel he inherited from Phil Bennett.
Why SMU might win: If this is the week that the light goes on for QB Bo Levi Mitchell and the Mustang offense, they have a chance of simply out-gunning a Tulane offense averaging only 18 points a game. With each passing week, SMU gets a little more comfortable with the new playbook, and receivers Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders are a pair of playmakers that have already hauled in nine touchdown passes between them.
Why Tulane might win: While the names on defense aren’t familiar, the results have been outstanding. Despite playing three FBS schools, the Green Wave is allowing just 223 yards and 19 points a game, tops in Conference USA. More important, it’s creating turnovers and more sacks than any other school in the country. Fueled by the outside pressure created by DE Logan Kelley, Tulane will keep the heat on Mitchell, forcing him into ill-advised passes and costly mistakes.
Who to watch: Although he may not be Matt Forte, RB Andre Anderson has emerged as the workhorse for Tulane in the ground game. He turned a career-high 38 carries into 157 yards and a touchdown a week ago, a prelude of what’s to come Saturday night. Against a hapless SMU run defense, he’s poised to barrel his way to personal records for a second straight week.
What will happen: Jones’ last visit to the Superdome as the head coach of Hawaii wasn’t a pleasant one. This one won’t go much better. Tulane will roll to an easy win, getting at least 150 yards on the ground from Anderson and three picks from the vastly underrated defense.
CFN Prediction: Tulane 38 … SMU 17 ... Line: Tulane -17
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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Saturday, September 27

Arkansas State (3-1) at Memphis (1-3), 2:00 EST
Why to watch: Arkansas State and Memphis renew a decade-long rivalry between a pair of schools separated by a 70-mile strip of highway. The Red Wolves have won the last two in the series and enter the game with a much better resume. They’re of to their best start in 22 years, beginning the season with a signature win over Texas A&M and opening Sun Belt play last week with a rare defeat of Middle Tennessee State. Memphis is currently riding a different trajectory, needing last Saturday’s visit from Nicholls State to break into the win column. The Tigers suffered gut-wrenching, back-to-back losses to Rice and Marshall that have put head coach Tommy West under the microscope and all but ended any hopes for a league title.
Why Arkansas State might win: The way the Red Wolves are moving the ball, Memphis won’t be able to stop the balanced attack. The Tigers are, at best, average up front and have gotten to the quarterback just four times in four games. Led by LT Matt Mandich, Arkansas State will own Memphis at the point of attack, springing Reggie Arnold, Derek Lawson, and Corey Leonard, the catalysts for the country’s 10^th-ranked rushing attack. Leonard is also getting it done through the air, beginning the season with 10 touchdown passes and just one interception.
Why Memphis might win: Arkansas State will score, but Memphis has the playmakers to go stride-for-stride. While the Tigers have grown accustomed to having a high-powered passing attack, they’re starting to get contributions from the ground game as well. Curtis Steele is coming off his first 100-yard game, Brandon Washington has provided a spark, and former Miami Hurricane Charlie Jones leads the team with four touchdowns. Memphis boasts a physical, experienced offensive line that can keep DE Alex Carrington from obstructing Arkelon Hall’s passing lanes.
Who to watch: Back in the spring, the only people who knew TE David Johnson were his teammates and the intrigued NFL scouts that made their way through Jonesboro. A terrific athlete with a future as an H-back, he’s averaging 16 yards a catch and has turned half of his 10 receptions into touchdowns for Leonard.
What will happen: When these two programs meet, the games are usually close, high-scoring, and exciting. Saturday’s meeting won’t deviate far from the script. Leonard will show why he’s a clutch performer and the Sun Belt’s top-rated passer, guiding Arkansas State to the game-winning drive in the final period.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 38 … Memphis 31 ... Line: Memphis -1
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2.5
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North Texas (0-3) at Rice (2-2), 5:00 EST
Why to watch: After back-to-back losses to ranked teams, Vanderbilt and Texas, Rice will get back to playing games against more suitable competition. North Texas, for instance. Sure, the Owls would have loved knocking off the ‘Dores or the ‘Horns, but in the big picture, a Conference USA crown remains the goal. Rice is the only 2-0 team out of the West, and a trip to division favorite Tulsa looms in the on-deck circle. David Bailiff’s goal is to take care of business this week, making sure his kids are mentally and physically ready for next Saturday’s showdown. Now in its second season under Todd Dodge, the Mean Green continues to search for answers on both sides of the ball. There’s been some progress, but not enough to have an impact in the standings.
Why North Texas might win: Rice hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons, so there’s hope for a Mean Green program that wants Giovanni Vizza to go up top 40 times a game and challenge weak secondaries. The Owls certainly qualify, allowing 277 passing yards a game and ranking 115^th in pass efficiency defense. Vizza will get the time he needs to hook up with top receivers Casey Fitzgerald and Sam Dibrell. It’s been 17 games since Rice held an FCS opponent under 27 points.
Why Rice might win: Now that teams from the SEC and Big 12 are out of the way, the Owls can get back to cranking out points and passing yards behind QB Chase Clement. The team’s leading rusher, as well as its triggerman, he’s already accounted for a dozen touchdowns and has two possible 100-catch guys in Jarett Dillard and James Casey. The Mean Green has yet to hold an opponent below 41 points, and isn’t about to reverse that trend this weekend.
Who to watch: If Rice is genuinely going to compete for the West and beyond, it has to start playing somewhat better defense. You can win shootouts only so often. Don’t blame S Andrew Sendejo for any of the program’s defensive shortcomings. A tackling machine with outstanding range, he’s had at least 13 stops in the last three games, capped by 17 in the loss to Texas.
What will happen: North Texas is bringing a knife into a gunfight. It lacks both the offensive firepower and the defensive might to get in the way of a Rice offense capable of hanging half-a-hundred on it. Clement will pad his gaudy numbers, getting his hand—and feet—in five of the Owls’ six touchdowns.
CFN Prediction:  Rice 45 … North Texas 27  ... Line: Rice -18.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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- Conference USA Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2