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C-USA Fearless Predictions, Sept. 27, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 23, 2008

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 C-USA, Part 2

Storylines ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC
| M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP

C-USA Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20

How are the picks so far? SU: 34-11 ... ATS: 17-13

- Conference USA Week Five Fearless Predictions

Saturday, September 27

Central Arkansas (4-0) at Tulsa (3-0), 7:00 EST
Why to watch: Is it time to start including Tulsa in the BCS buster discussion alongside Boise State and the trio of unbeatens from the Mountain West? Not Quite. You see, the Hurricane has faced generic opponents and won’t get many bonus points for playing an average Arkansas team the first weekend of November. Instead, it’ll try taking the Hawaii route to a major bowl game, lighting up scoreboards and torpedoing all comers. Central Arkansas is like the Tulsa of the FCS. Behind a dynamite passing game, the Bears have ripped through a soft schedule by averaging close to 40 points a game. They’ve actually got the edge at quarterback, where Nathan Brown is a Walter Payton Award candidate and a possible draft choice next April.
Why Central Arkansas might win: The Bears offense is for real and is going to present problems for a Tulsa defense that’s allowing close to 400 yards a game and is still adjusting to a bunch of first-year starters. Brown is not your typical FCS quarterback that’ll get exposed once he faces better competition. NFL scouts are raving about his size, arm strength, and pocket presence. He’s been nearly flawless through four games, connecting repeatedly with receivers Willie Landers and Eric Ware, and premier TE Marquez Branson.
Why Tulsa might win: Central Arkansas will score. Tulsa will score more. If it’s possible, the Hurricane looks even better than it did a year ago in Gus Malzahn’s pass-happy system. David Johnson has been scary good in his first year as a starter, throwing six touchdown passes in consecutive games and getting his endless wave of playmakers involved in the offense. After playing the likes of Quincy and Henderson State, the Bears have no idea what they’re about to face Saturday night.
Who to watch: Justin Morsey, Rodrick Thomas, and the rest of the Tulsa offensive line have been the unsung heroes of the team’s 52-point scoring average. Despite having to pass protect more than 100 times, they’ve yielded just three sacks. Their focus this week will be on Central Arkansas DE Larry Hart, a disruptive junior college transfer, who has already racked up 10.5 tackles for loss and six sacks.
What will happen: Johnson vs. Brown is one of the sneaky good quarterback duels of the weekend, especially if you’re a pro scout. Both will pile up the numbers, but the Bears simply won’t be able to keep with the juggernaut that is the Hurricane offense. Tulsa will score at will, amassing 600 yards of offense and getting plenty of work for the second and third-stringers
CFN Prediction
: Tulsa 54 … Central Arkansas 10... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 1
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections

UAB (1-3) at South Carolina (2-2), 7:00 EST
Why to watch: Where would South Carolina be without the play of Ellis Johnson’s defense? It would not be a pretty sight. The Gamecocks barely got by Wofford a week ago, needing a late touchdown to finally put the game out of reach. As bad as the quarterbacks have been playing in Columbia, it might be time to hand the ball to Stephen Garcia, the impish redshirt freshman who’s been hailed as the savior ever since signing a letter-of-intent. UAB got a well-deserved break from a rugged early-season schedule, pounding Alabama State for its first win of the season. Unlike this week’s host, the Blazers have a quarterback to build around for the next two seasons. Junior Joe Webb leads the team with 401 yards rushing and has thrown two touchdown passes in three of the first four games.
Why UAB might win: South Carolina showed last week that regardless of the opponent, it’s vulnerable when it can’t punch in touchdowns. The offense moved the chains, but struggled to score. Wofford had no business being in that game in the fourth quarter, but it was, which gives hope to the Blazers. UAB comes in battle-tested, having played Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, and Tennessee, and confident after winning for the first time. Led by S Will Dunbar and LB Joe Henderson, the defense has a chance against a Gamecock offense that lacks playmakers and has reached the end zone just four times in the last three games.
Why South Carolina might win: In Columbia, it’s all about the defense these days. The Gamecocks have the nation’s top-rated pass defense, allowing just 96 yards a game and a single touchdown pass in four games. UAB has a one-dimensional offense, which South Carolina will have no problems containing. The way CB Captain Munnerlyn, LB Jasper Brinkley, and the rest of the defense are performing, Webb alone won’t be enough to put a dent in this group. In fact, label it a minor upset if the Blazer offense produces more than 10 points Saturday night.
Who to watch: Whether he’s in the huddle or on the sidelines, all eyes in Williams-Brice Stadium will be on Garcia. While it’s not exactly fair or rationale, many Gamecock fans believe he’ll solve most of the offense’s woes. Whether it’s Garcia or Chris Smelley at the controls, he’ll benefit from improved play out of receivers Moe Brown and Dion Lecorn. Neither has really lit it up since Kenny McKinley went down with a hamstring injury.
What will happen: Although UAB plays with a no-quit demeanor, its inability to move the ball on the South Carolina D will foil any possibility for a signature upset. Garcia will play, as expected, but will fail to walk on water, as some Gamecock fans had hoped. Even so, it'll be a relatively easy win.
CFN Prediction
: South Carolina 24 … UAB 9 ... Line: South Carolina -24.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections

 
UCF (1-2) at UTEP (0-3), 8:00 EST, CSTV
Why to watch: Now that UCF’s two shots at upsetting larger programs, South Florida and Boston College, fell short, it can turn its attention to defending the Conference USA title. It all starts with a long trip to El Paso to kick off the league portion of the schedule. The big news in Saturday’s loss to the Eagles was the debut of true freshman QB Rob Calabrese, the future at the position in Orlando. Both he and starter Michael Greco will play this Saturday, although head coach George O’Leary is insisting there’s no quarterback controversy. The situation at UTEP has cascaded from bad to worse. Not only are the Miners 0-3 after losing a heartbreaker to New Mexico State, but QB Trevor Vittatoe, the team’s best player, is sidelined with an ankle injury.
Why UCF might win: The Knight offense should have its long-awaited breakout game at the expense of one of the nation’s weakest defenses. UTEP has not held an opponent under 34 points this season, and its pass defense has already allowed 13 touchdown passes in just three games. Whether it’s Greco or Calabrese dropping back to throw, he’ll have few problems locating Rocky Ross and Brian Watters breaking free from coverage.
Why UTEP might win: If, as expected, Vittatoe is a scratch, there might be a silver lining for the Miners. With James Thomas behind center, UTEP will shift to more of a ground-oriented, option offense that gets the most out of his athleticism and quickness. While UCF has a veteran, opportunistic defensive backfield, the run defense has some holes. By keeping it on the ground with Thomas and Terrell Jackson, who’s returning from injury, UTEP will be steering clear of the Knights’ strength on defense
Who to watch: Assuming Thomas is taking snaps for the Miners, it’ll be a busy night for the talented Knight linebackers assigned to keep him contained. Lawrence Young, Chance Henderson, and Cory Hogue are all playing well so far this season, possessing the speed, range, and instincts to make plays all over the field.
What will happen: While UCF is not without its problems, UTEP is a program in disarray, searching for something positive to cling to before the mid-point of this season. It won’t find it this week. At least for a week, the Knights will recapture some of last year’s form, getting a workmanlike 80 yards on the ground from Ronnie Weaver and multiple turnovers from the defense.
CFN Prediction
: UCF 28 … UTEP 20 ... Line: UCF -5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections


- Conference USA Week Five Fearless Predictions





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