Pac-10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 13
California QB Kevin Riley
California QB Kevin Riley
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 5, 2008


Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Pac-10 Games


Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona StCalifornia | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6

How are the picks so far? SU: 11-3 ... ATS: 9-4

- Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Ohio State (2-0) at USC (1-0), 8:00 EST ABC

The Expanded Breakdown, Analysis, and Fearless Prediction for Ohio State vs. USC
 

Saturday, September 13

California (2-0) at Maryland (1-1), 12:00 EST
Why to watch: Is Cal for real? With modest expectations heading into a rebuilding season, the Bears have surprisingly parlayed impressive wins over Michigan State and Washington State into a spot in both major polls. A road win clear against another BCS opponent will further enhance their profile and spot in the rankings. The catalysts for the uprising have been young backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, who gashed Wazzu for 280 yards and four touchdowns on only 23 carries. Maryland is on an opposite trajectory, coming off a terrible loss to Middle Tennessee. The Terps have played poorly in both of their games, needing to start making things happen on offense before another season starts gradually slipping away. Changes could be on the way at quarterback, where three players have produced a single touchdown pass. 
Why Cal might win: Fresh off a 66-3 whipping of Washington State, the Cal offense is confident and firing on all cylinders. Best is a gamebreaker, who’s capable of going the distance with even a hint of daylight to bust through, and Vereen is proving to be an ideal complement. Despite facing Delaware and Middle Tennessee, Maryland has yet to register a sack, meaning Bear QB Kevin Riley will have all day to locate receivers on play-action passes. As futile as the Terp offense has been, it won’t be able to keep up with this improving Cal attack.
Why Maryland might win: The best way to slow down the Cal offense is to keep it off the field, which hasn’t happened much in the first two weeks. The onus of making that happen falls to Terp RB Da’Rel Scott, who has already rushed for 320 yards on just 37 carries. It’s not as if the Bears have a brick wall of a defensive line, so he should continue finding running room behind Scott Burley, Jaimie Thomas, and the physically imposing Terrapin line.
Who to watch: It’s only matter of time before teams start stacking the line to stop the Cal running game. With Maryland linebackers Dave Philistin and Alex Wujciak pressing up a step, it’ll be up to Riley to make them pay with the pass. While he hasn’t had to be great, that could change this week if the Terps throw everything at Best and Vereen.
What will happen: While it’s never easy traveling across country for a game, it won’t be so daunting that Cal stumbles to a Maryland team in chaos. After a slow start, one of the Bear playmakers will light the fuse that leads the way to a double-digit win. Once the Terps go down, it won’t have the passing game to mount a comeback.
CFN Prediction: California 27 … Maryland 17 ... Line: California -14
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 2.5
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Washington State (0-2) at Baylor (1-1), 12:30 EST
Why to watch: Baylor handed head coach Art Briles his first win with the program, a 51-6 rout of Northwestern State. Washington State is still looking to do the same for its rookie coach, Paul Wulff. While not much was expected from the Cougars this fall, opening with losses to Oklahoma State and Cal by a combined score of 105-16 has created a pall over the program. And those two games took place in Washington. Now, Wazzu will hit the road looking for anything positive to build on over the next 10 games. Although the Bears remain light years from Big 12 contention, there is some excitement in Waco, which can be traced to Briles’ offense and his true freshman quarterback, Robert Griffin. The track star/quarterback accounted for four touchdowns and 336 yards of offense on Saturday, and is quickly becoming the face of the program.
Why Washington State might win
: While it certainly hasn’t been evident in the first two weeks, the Cougars do have the skill position players to put a dent in an awful Baylor defense. Dwight Tardy is a capable runner when he gets blocking and Brandon Gibson is one of the country’s premier wide receivers. The key for Washington State will be to mine a quarterback out of Gary Rogers, Marshall Lobbestael, and Kevin Lopina who can adequately run the new spread offense. If the Cougs have trouble moving the ball, it won’t be because the Bear D is flexing its muscles.
Why Baylor might win: With Griffin at the controls, the light appears to be going on for the Bear offense. Sure, he’ll make rookie mistakes, but he’ll also frustrate opposing defenses with his strong arm and ability to scramble outside the pocket. The defense he’ll see this week has been abominable in all facets, tackling poorly and allowing 565 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground in just two games. Baylor will look to get Jay Finley going on the ground, running him behind a veteran line that’s bolstered by tackles Jason Smith and Dan Gay.
Who to watch: When Griffin isn’t handing the ball to Finley, he’ll be looking downfield for top receivers Thomas White and David Gettis. Don’t be fooled by Washington State’s respectable numbers in pass defense; opponents haven’t had to throw the ball at the Cougars because the run defense has been so paltry.
What will happen: With Washington State circling the drain, even a trip to Waco won’t help the situation. Baylor has problems of its own, but with the offense improving and the game at home, it’ll capitalize on the situation, beating a Pac-10 team for the first time since 1996.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 34 … Washington State 27 ... Line: Washington State -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 2.5
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UCLA (1-0) at BYU (2-0), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 13
Why to watch: UCLA and BYU will be meeting for the third time in the last 12 months with a lot more at stake than a typical regular season game or a Las Vegas Bowl trophy. Both schools are off to strong starts, the Bruins beating Tennessee in Rick Neuheisel’s debut and the Cougars climbing in the polls with wins over Northern Iowa and Washington. The victory over U-Dub was made possible when Jan Jorgensen blocked an extra point that would have sent the game to overtime, a fact glossed over in the Jake Locker celebration-flag controversy. A second straight win over a Pac-10 team will mean BYU will have cleared two of its biggest obstacles to reaching a BCS bowl game, at least until the dates with TCU and Utah. UCLA hasn’t played since stunning the Volunteers in the overtime thriller, but the team needed the time to work. Was the program simply riding the emotion of the moment, or is it ready to contend for more than a second-rate bowl invitation? This is the game to find out.
Why UCLA might win: Finally, a defense that can truly challenge the BYU offense. The Bruins are outstanding up the middle with tackles Brigham Harwell and Brian Price, and LB Reggie Carter. Few schools match up especially well with the Cougar offensive line, but UCLA is one that’ll hold up well at the point of attack. On defense, BYU still has a lot to prove. If QB Kevin Craft can start the way he finished the Tennessee game, the Bruins will be able to battle back even if they fall behind early.
Why BYU might win: Sure, UCLA can be tough on one-dimensional offenses, but how will it handle an attack that runs the ball as well as it throws it? The Cougars are so tough to defend because they force you to pick your poison. You can focus on QB Max Hall or RB Harvey Unga, but good luck stopping both players. While Hall is No. 3 nationally in total offense and has been picked off just once, Unga is a battering ram with surprisingly quick feet.  Four BYU receivers have already caught at least 10 passes, led by Dennis Pitta’s 21 grabs.
Who to watch: The rebuilt Cougar defense has been just average through two games. One of the exceptions has been LB Matt Bauman, who’s excelling in his first season as a starter. He leads the team with 20 tackles, and as one of the program’s most active defenders, will be watching the UCLA running backs all afternoon. With Bruin star Kahlil Bell out with an ankle injury, Bauman’s job became even easier.           
What will happen: This game won’t be in primetime or in Westwood, so look for UCLA to play a lot closer to the team that was lacked offensive consistency in the first half of Neuheisel’s debut. The Bruins won’t play poorly, but they also won’t have enough punch on offense to match BYU point-for-point, especially in front of a fired up crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Hall will be the hero, dissecting a suspect UCLA secondary.
CFN Prediction: BYU 31 … UCLA 24 ... Line: BYU -8
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 4
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Oregon (2-0) at Purdue (1-0), 3:30 EST, ABC
Why to watch: As Big Ten-Pac-10 match ups go, Oregon-Purdue isn’t exactly USC-Ohio State, but it’ll be a strong, entertaining undercard in the second meeting between the two since a 1979 13-7 Boilermaker win. The Ducks have gotten off to a terrific start, winning its first two games by an average margin of 37 points. However, the AP’s 16th-ranked team has yet to play a road game or an opponent with postseason potential routing Washington and Utah State. Purdue opened its season with a matter-of-fact blowout of Northern Colorado. The Boilermakers were sloppier than the 42-10 indicated, needing to make improvements as the level of competition increases. The maligned Big Ten could use a win here, especially if the Buckeyes lose at Troy, but it would be a bigger win for a Purdue team that’s known for beating the teams it’s supposed to, and also losing to the teams it’s supposed to.
Why Oregon might win: No Dennis Dixon. No Jonathan Stewart. No problem. Even with a retooled backfield, the Ducks are cranking out touchdowns like a Pez dispenser. They’ve been a machine through two weeks, leading the country in total offense and showing tremendous depth at the skill positions. Justin Roper will have success through the air versus an average Boiler pass defense, and the running duo of Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount has been prolific. The Oregon line is physical and experienced enough to control Purdue’s interior, the strength of the defense
Why Purdue might win: Although Oregon will score, Purdue has the weapons to keep pace. Curtis Painter is one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, a veteran who won’t be rattled by the Ducks’ pressure defense. He’ll stand in the pocket and play catch with a group of receivers that’s more than just Greg Orton. Desmond Tardy and Keith Smith played the opener as if they plan to be integral parts of the passing game, as well. When the Boilers keep it on the ground, Kory Sheets is a breakaway threat with good moves in the open field. While Oregon has an opportunistic D, it is flexible and gives up plenty of yards.
Who to watch: The game-within-the-game worth watching is Painter vs. the Oregon secondary. Cornerbacks Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond, and safety Patrick Chung, give the Ducks one of the most athletic and disruptive defensive backfields in the country. If Painter keeps putting too much air under his passes, or has to force his throws, the Oregon pass defense will take two or three of them back the other way.
What will happen: This is a huge test for an Oregon program that feels it can sneak into the Top 10 before Pac-10 play resumes. The Ducks will earn a passing grade by winning the turnover battle and getting 250 yards between tackles Max Unger and Fenuki Tupou.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 38 … Purdue 28 ... Line: Oregon -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 3.5
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Hawaii (1-1) at Oregon State (0-2), 4:00 EST
Why to watch: A year ago, this would have been a must-see game with BCS implications. Today, however, it’s an afterthought on the Week 3 slate as both schools struggle to find something to get fired up about. Oregon State is 0-2 for the first time since 2004, courtesy of ugly losses to Stanford and Penn State. Although a transition year was expected in Corvallis, the Beavers were not supposed to be as destitute as they’ve looked in the first two weeks. A visit from Hawaii gives the program a much-needed drop in competition before things get nasty again with games against USC and Utah. The Warriors are light years from the Sugar Bowl team that captured the nation’s attention a year ago. No one expected much against Florida, but needing to rally in the second half to beat Weber State was a sign that the school has sunk further in the post-June Jones than previously expected.
Why Hawaii might win: Everyone knew the Beavers were facing turnover on defense, but they weren’t supposed to be this bad. They’ve been gutted on the ground in successive weeks by Toby Gerhart and Evan Royster. The defense is getting no pressure up front, which will coax the Warriors into giving more touches to top running backs Leon Wright-Jackson and Jayson Rego. Now that Hawaii has settled on WAC Offensive Player of the Week Tyler Graunke at quarterback, the passing game will get an overdue jolt of stability. 
Why Oregon State might win: While Hawaii has a veteran defense, stopping the run is not one of its calling cards. If ever the Beaver line needs to step up and create space, it’s this weekend. Andy Levitre and the rest of the unit must do a better of protecting QB Lyle Moevao and springing the running backs. The Warriors have a tendency to over pursue on defense, which will give Moevao the opportunity he needs to connect with Sammie Stroughter and Shane Morales downfield.
Who to watch: Ryan McCants was supposed to be the next big Beaver back, but that experiment may already be over. True freshman Jacquizz Rodgers appears to have taken over as the featured star of the ground game after being the lone bright spot in last week’s loss to Penn State. Undersized, yet very quick, he ran for 99 yards and two scores and will be the focal point of the offense.
What will happen: Oregon State’s speed will finally show through. With their backs firmly against the wall, the Beavers will revel in a chance to go back home and face an opponent that’s having just as many problems. Rodgers will explode as a runner and a receiver, and the Beaver pass defense, the strength of the unit, will keep Hawaii’s passing game in check
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 45 … Hawaii 27 ... Line: Oregon State -12.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 3.5
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- Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2