Pac-10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 27
USC RB Joe McKnight
USC RB Joe McKnight
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 24, 2008


Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Pac-10 Games


Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona StCalifornia | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20

How are the picks so far? SU: 22-8 ... ATS: 16-11

Pac 10 Game of the Week

USC (2-0) at Oregon State (1-2), 9:00 EST, ESPN, Thursday, September 25
Why to watch: USC has had two weeks to bask in the glow of its statement rout of Ohio State in front of a captive audience. Now it’s back to work for the Trojans, who could be double-digit favorites in each of the next 10 games, and will have to maintain their focus when the stakes aren’t as high. QB Mark Sanchez has been named Pac-10 Player of the Week following each of the first two games and is already climbing up many Heisman charts. The last time USC traveled to Corvallis, it left town with a damaging 33-31 defeat. Oregon State will be looking for a repeat performance in order to jump-start its season. The Beavers have struggled in the early going, losing to Stanford and Penn State before rebounding with a rout of Hawaii. Mike Riley’s teams have shown a knack for improving as the season unfolds.
Why USC might win: As expected, Oregon State is struggling badly with a front seven that was ravaged by graduation. While the unit held up well against Hawaii, it was ravaged by Stanford and Penn State for more than 200 yards rushing, and has just three sacks in three games. Expect more of the same from the Trojans, who have an athletic offensive line and a revolving door of talented backs that includes Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, and C.J. Gable. If the Beavers can’t get pressure on Sanchez, he’ll carve them up, much the way he did against Virginia and Ohio State.
Why Oregon State might win: Gradually, the Beavers are developing an offense that can move the chains through the air and on the ground. Lyle Moevao is getting more and more comfortable as the triggerman, making good use of Sammy Stroughter, Shane Morales, and James Rodgers. On the ground, Rodgers’ brother, Jacquizz, has seized control of the feature role and is fourth in the Pac-10 in rushing. Although there’s no easy to way to navigate the nasty USC defense, Oregon State has the diversity and speed to keep it off balance and convert on third down.
Who to watch
: The Trojans are cautiously optimistic they’ll get their first look at LB Chris Galippo, who’s been out almost a year with a herniated disc in his back. The heir apparent to Rey Maualuga in the middle, he’s got an enormous upside once he’s healthy. With the program likely to empty the bench late in plenty of games, freshmen, like Galippo, LB Uona Kaveinga, OL Tyron Smith, DE Malik Jackson, and Armond Armstead, will get chances to earn valuable reps throughout the year.
What will happen: In Oregon State’s one game with a quality opponent, it got smoked, 45-14, by Penn State. While things won’t get that out of hand, USC has the same run-pass potential to ding the rebuilt Beaver front seven. The Trojans could fall behind briefly on the road before their superior talent on both sides of the ball ends any possibility of another upset loss in Corvallis.
CFN Prediction
: USC 48 … Oregon State 17... Line: USC -24.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 3
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Saturday, September 27

Fresno State (2-1) at UCLA (1-2), 3:30 EST, ABC
Why to watch: In retrospect, beating Tennessee on Labor Day might have been the worst thing for UCLA this fall. The upset quickly spiked expectations in Rick Neuheisel’s first season to a level that doesn’t match the program’s talent level. The Bruins have been exposed in back-to-back weeks by BYU and Arizona, losing by a combined score of 90-10. In a matter of a few weeks, they’ve tumbled from the darlings of Westwood to a longshot for a bowl game. At some point, Neuheisel might begin building for the future and getting more reps for his underclassmen. No longer on the short list of possible BCS busters, Fresno State can turn its attention to capturing an elusive WAC championship. For now, the Bulldogs have been displaced as the league front-runner after they needed double-overtime to beat Toledo and Boise State shocked Oregon in Eugene.
Why Fresno State might win: Nothing has gone right for UCLA, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Bruins have not scored an offensive touchdown in the last eight quarters, and their issues on the line are impacting every aspect of the attack. Although things got out of control last week against Toledo, the Bulldogs are a lot closer to the defense that limited Rutgers and Wisconsin to 20 combined points in the first two games. Since showing signs of life in the opener, UCLA QB Kevin Craft has regressed, throwing five picks and just a single touchdown pass.                      
Why UCLA might win: Stopping the running game is like cutting off the head at Fresno State. The Bruins have the potential to corral Ryan Mathews and Lonyae Miller with a stout middle of the defense. It all starts up front with the tackle tandem of Brigham Harwell and Brian Price, both of whom possess the quickness to shoot the gap and make plays behind the line. In the Bulldogs’ lone loss of the season, they rushed for well below their season average and didn’t get a lot of help through the air from QB Tom Brandstater. UCLA will also be focused on stopping the backs and putting the game in the hands of the quarterback.
Who to watch: Someone has to step up for Fresno State and replace injured DT Jon Monga, one of the few Bulldogs capable of putting heat on the quarterback. He’s going to miss at least the next three games with a knee injury, joining the other starter, Cornell Banks, on the shelf. Fresno is banking on three underclassmen, Logan Harrell, Chase McEntee, and Mark Roberts the inevitable onslaught on runs they’ll see from the Bruins.
What will happen: Although Fresno State is turning out to be a little overrated, UCLA’s utter state of chaos will prevent it from capitalizing in the Rose Bowl. The Bruin offense will sputter for a third straight week, as the Bulldogs zoom past behind the power running game and a couple of Brandstater touchdown passes to Bear Pascoe and Seyi Ajirotutu.             
CFN Prediction
: Fresno State 31 … UCLA 13 ... Line: Fresno State -7
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2.5
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Colorado State (2-1) at California (2-1), 6:00 EST
Why to watch: Cal has had a week off to get beyond the Maryland game and fix some of the myriad problems that led to an unforeseen 35-27 loss in College Park. The Bears are chalking it up to a long trip and an uncharacteristically bad day for the offensive line, claiming they’re closer to the team that beat Michigan State and dressed down Washington State. They’ll be carrying the banner for the Pac-10, which is winless in five games against the Mountain West this season. Get a load of Colorado State, which nosed above .500 in Steve Fairchild’s first season with a thrilling win over Houston. The Rams are beginning to play better, especially at quarterback, and have an opportunity this week to make a quantum leap with a road win over a quality Pac-10 opponent.
Why Colorado State might win: The Cal defense sprung some leaks versus an average Maryland offense that the Rams will look to exploit. Billy Farris has played well at quarterback the last two weeks, throwing for 597 yards, three touchdowns, and only one interception. He has a stable supporting cast that includes complimentary backs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell, and receivers Rashaun Greer, Dion Morton, and Kory Sperry. Colorado State hung with Cal a year ago, losing 34-28, and won’t be intimidated by the trip to Strawberry Canyon.
Why Cal might win
: The Bear offensive line, which got schooled by the Terps, is determined to prove that last week’s effort was an anomaly. C Alex Mack and his linemates will play with a chip on their shoulders, blowing the Ram line off the ball and allowing the Cal playmakers to make plays. In its toughest game to date, Colorado State gave up three rushing touchdowns to Colorado and failed to produce a sack. Backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen will reprise their early season roles, jetting through holes and into the Ram secondary.
Who to watch
: The biggest news in the offseason at Cal was whether Kevin Riley or Nate Longshore would get the ball from Jeff Tedford to start the season. So far, it looks as if Tedford has made the right call. Riley has been terrific, accounting for seven touchdowns, turning the ball over just once, and getting a multitude of Bears involved in the offense. The more he has to develop chemistry with his young backs and receivers, the more dangerous he’ll be as a distributor.
What will happen: Don’t think the Mountain West brass won’t be watching this game very closely. The league, along with the Pac-10, has plenty riding on the outcome. Cal will save a little face for the Pac-10, exploding on offense for 450 balanced yards, more than 40 points, and am easy double-digit win. Best will be the star, rekindling a smattering of Heisman talk.
CFN Prediction
: California 45 … Colorado State 16 ... Line: Cal -25.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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Oregon (3-1) at Washington State (1-3), 6:15 EST
Why to watch: Sure, it would’ve been nice if Oregon had a healthy starting quarterback, but that can’t explain why it allowed 37 points to Boise State in the school’s worst home performance since losing to Arizona in 2006. A Duck secondary that was supposed to be a strength got bombarded by Kellen Moore, a freshman making just the third start of his career. The lone bright spot was QB Darron Thomas, who ditched his redshirt in the second half and almost rallied Oregon back from a 24-point deficit. No. 5 on the depth chart when camp began, he’ll get the start if Jeremiah Masoli can’t shake the cobwebs from last week’s concussion. If the Ducks want to commiserate about their quarterback situation, all they have to do is look across the sidelines. Already in a freefall, Washington State has lost Gary Rogers for the season with a fractured vertebrae, and Kevin Lopina is questionable with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Marshall Lobbestael played well in the rout of Portland State, and could get his first start on Saturday.
Why Oregon might win: It may not matter who’s behind center if the Ducks don’t fall behind this week and are able to commit to the run. Wazzu is allowing a nation’s-worst 7.4 yards a carry through four games, routinely getting blown off the ball by the other team’s blockers. Oregon will flex its muscles in the trenches, creating daylight for LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson to operate. The Ducks will widen its Pac-10 lead in rushing, piling up 300 yards on the ground and forcing the Cougars to play catch-up with an inexperienced quarterback.
Why Washington State might win: Although the Ducks have talent on defense, they’ve shown too many cracks in the first month of the season. The situation reached a boiling point last weekend, especially with the pass defense. Oregon got abused for 386 yards, three touchdowns, and too many big plays. Lobbestael may be young, but he’s actually a great fit for the spread offense Paul Wulff is installing in Pullman. He moves well around the pocket, and has quality targets in WR Brandon Gibson and TE Devin Frischknecht. If Oregon hasn’t corrected its problems on defense, the Cougars will capitalize with an offense that’s showing signs of progress.
Who to watch: As starters go down, the young Duck quarterbacks are looking more and more at making connections on the intermediate routes. That’s been pleasing news for TE Ed Dickson, who has responded with 20 catches for 266 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last three games. A terrific playmaker at 6-5 and 243 pounds, he has the reliable mitts that often escape the Oregon receivers.
What will happen: Oregon is going to play keep-away from the Washington State offense, controlling the clock with a relentless diet of Blount and Johnson between the tackles. The Cougars simply don’t have the stoppers on defense to slow down the Duck ground game, or the consistency on offense to make it a tight game.
CFN Prediction
: Oregon 40 … Washington State 17... Line: Oregon -20
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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Stanford (2-2) at Washington (0-3), 10:00 EST
Why to watch: The toughest stretch of the season now over, Washington exits its bye week facing a fork in the road. With a win on Saturday, it’ll stop the hemorrhaging and provide a launching point for a much more manageable schedule in October. With a loss, however, the Huskies would be completely off the tracks, raising the likelihood that Tyrone Willingham would be a lame duck coach over the next two months. Stanford snapped its two-game losing streak, rallying in the second half to fend of rival San Jose State. It was a must-win for the Cardinal if it has any hopes of manufacturing the six victories needed to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001. This could be the site of the debut of Andrew Luck, the blue-chip quarterback who chose Stanford over a slew of other schools. Jim Harbaugh has hinted that his prodigy is ready to go and his starter, Tavita Pritchard, needs to do play better to keep his job.
Why Stanford might win: The Cardinal plans to attack Washington’s biggest disappointment so far, a veteran offensive line that’s already yielded 11 sacks. Stanford is coming off an eight-sack game, bringing pressure the traditional way and by blitzing the linebackers and safeties. The Huskies better pay particular attention to LB Pat Maynor, who leads the team with 3.5 sacks. If the Huskies can’t establish a running game, the Cardinal is going to tee off on QB Jake Locker and the sputtering offense.
Why Washington might win: The Huskies’ problems on defense have a little something to do with the level of competition they’ve faced. Fortunately for U-Dub, the Stanford offense looks nothing like the ones it’s seen from Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma. On the contrary, the Cardinal ranks 111th nationally in total offense, and have gone more than three straight games without a touchdown pass. It’s about time for the young Washington defenders, such as LB Mason Foster and S Nate Williams, to make a statement versus a more manageable opponent.
Who to watch: Three games. No sacks for Washington. It’s a major issue that’s about to get a one-week solution. Husky DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim is ready for a breakout game after being handled by some of the biggest and best tackles in the country. He’s got a non-stop motor, which he’ll rely on to beat his man and sack Cardinal quarterbacks on multiple occasions.
What will happen: On The Farm, Stanford has yet to lose. On the road, the Cardinal has yet to win. That trend will continue in Seattle with Washington holding on for its first victory of the season. Locker will make the key connections down the stretch, finding D’Andre Goodwin in the end zone for the go-ahead score.
CFN Prediction
: Washington 26 … Stanford 21... Line: Washington -4
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2.5
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